THE Betfair World Snooker Championship starts on Saturday and here Milesey's picked one player to back from each quarter.
Back Ronnie O’Sullivan @ 7.2
This first section of the draw for the Betfair World Championship contains both of last year’s finalists, plus the man who won three of the previous five renewals. If seedings go to plan, Ronnie O’Sullivan will face fellow four-time winner John Higgins in the quarter-final.
But despite doubts about his lack of competitive snooker, I’m much more confident about the former reaching that stage than the latter. Higgins is still potentially the best match player in the business, as illustrated by his early season form, but hasn’t been potting long balls.
He normally takes time to find his rhythm in a tournament and both Mark Davis and probable next opponent Stuart Bingham are both well up to testing him. All of which is good news for Ronnie, whom I’m expecting to turn up well prepared.
Ronnie’s natural talent should swiftly blow away any cobwebs and if he’s even at 80 per cent of his best, Higgins is the only player in this section realistically capable of stopping him before the semis.
Marcus Campbell should be easily swept aside and while 2012 runner-up Ali Carter looks dangerous on paper their head-to-head to record suggests otherwise. In their last 15 encounters, Ronnie’s only defeat came in the relatively meaningless best-of-five formatted Championship League.
Back Martin Gould @ 130.0
After backing the favourite in the first quarter, a rank outsider here balances the book. Only two players in this section begin the tournament shorter than 50.0 and neither Judd Trump or Shaun Murphy are particularly reliable.
I’ve successfully opposed Trump in every tournament this year and have no intention to abandon that strategy. He’ll win a world title one day for sure but right now the “Juddernaut” still plays like a novice and lacks a Plan B for when the long pots don’t deliver chances.
Assuming he gets past Dominic Dale, Trump could be a good odds-on lay against the winner between Matthew Stevens and Marco Fu. Murphy has drawn arguably the strongest qualifier in Martin Gould.
While the 2005 champion has won all six of their previous encounters, four of those matches were close and Gould has improved. The reigning Betfair Snooker Shootout champion has struck me as the type to surprise one day at The Crucible ever since Neil Robertson pulled off a miraculous comeback in their 2010 second-round match here.
If Gould can upset the odds against Murphy I’d make him favourite against either Graeme Dott or Peter Ebdon in the next round.
Back Neil Robertson @ 7.6
Nobody has been more consistent than Robertson this year and if it wasn’t for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory several times the 2010 champion would likely head to Sheffield as a standout favourite at much shorter odds.
He looked set to challenge for a second title 12 months ago before losing to a peak-form O’Sullivan in a quarter-final that many regarded as the real final. None of Robert Milkins, Ricky Walden or Michael Holt look remotely capable of stopping him reach at least the same stage.
That stage could get tricky if the seedings go to plan and Robertson faces Welsh Open champion Stephen Maguire, although our man would still be favourite. In order to get there, though, Maguire will need to eliminate twice former champion Mark Williams which may turn out less straightforward than recent form would suggest.
Williams will know next season’s revamped qualification system means this could plausibly be his last Crucible appearance and could well find some form.
Back Mark Allen @ 16.0
If there’s a Group of Death this quarter is it. Mark Selby, Ding Junhui and Mark Allen are all frontline candidates for the title yet only one can reach the semis.
My money has been on Allen for months and nothing has dented my confidence. Allen’s snooker since the turn of the year has been consistently top class and with a little luck at crucial times, could have delivered multiple titles, as opposed to just a successful defence of his World Open title. As explained in greater detail here, Allen has already proved his mettle at this venue and is a better player now.
That isn’t to question the claims of either Selby or Ding. The latter will surely beat Alan McManus in his opener to set up what could be a classic encounter with Allen. One word of caution regarding Selby, however, is a habit of making hard work for himself. His route contains two of the most capable qualifiers, Matthew Selt and Jack Lisowski, so don’t rule out an early upset.
STAKING PLAN
£100 on Ronnie @ 7.2
£100 on Robertson @ 7.6
£40 on Allen @ 16.0
£10 on Gould @ 130
Milesey (Betfair)
Resident football tipster at Scotland's most read newspaper, the Daily Record, for over 20 years and proud host of one the best betting communities on the web with daily betting tips.
My bettin plan is backin Selby, Robbo & Allen, 2 of those shld meet in the semis which means I’d have a guy in the final. I opened a acc wi bet365 & gt a free £200 bet, I stuck it all on selby at 13/2, no prizes 4 guessing who I’m rooting 4.
robertson will win… massive snooker fan, the thunder for the win!!!!
Quarter 1: Back O’SUllivan
Winner of last years world championship o’sullivan is back for the defense of his title. His long potting was only 30-40% last year, however, he has been practising hard with Peter Ebdon is Sheffield who says his overall game has increased along the way. With very few contenders other than Higgins who could potentially stop him i believe that in this quarter O’Sullivan is the one to beat.
Quarter 2: Back Judd Trump
Judd’s form has been diabolical this year, however, i do believe that it could be the year of the trump/o’sullivan match up many have been waiting for. When Judd’s potting is on form, he makes it look so easy and i believe that the opponents he may face apart from ricky walden play at a pace which will suit his style. This could provide the break-through Judd’s been waiting for but his lack of form makes me believe his run will end at the semi finals
Quarter 3: Back Robertson
I really cannot see past robertson in this quarter, the only real potential problem he could face would be steven maguire who took him to the wire at last months China open. However, i do not believe Maguire has the match play to beat robertson over 25 frames. Robertsons all round game has improved and he has the perfect concoction of safety play and attacking play. On the yearly form and the consistent finals and semi finals he has made all year i will therefore be backing Robertson heavy to win the whole thing.
Quarter 4: Back Ding Junhui
This is a difficult quarter and it has been heavily publisised that Junhui is struggling to cope with the pressure of being Chinas world number 1, why this is i dont know. His run at previous world championships has also been poor when heavily backed to make a serious go of it. Dings form of late has been brilliant with a PDTA championship win over neil robertson, a bunch of nice breaks and consistent potting success. I therefore believe that he will kick on from this added pressure from the press to make the semi finals whilst beating Mark Selby along the way. Although Selby has had a good year his recent form is poor and i do not think Mark Allen has the match play to play a long consistent game. This is a bit of a punt, but, i thoroughly believe Ding has a solid chance of winning this quarter
Back Michael Holt @ 2.6 (vs Walden)
While the overwhelming majority of public attention will be focused on table one this morning, to see Ronnie O’Sullivan begin his title defence, a superior betting opportunity is available on table two. There are always several close finishes in the first round, but I doubt Ronnie’s match with Marcus Campbell will be one of them. With O’Sullivan a mere 1.18 chance to win, value-seekers might want to predict the margin of victory and trade either the handicap or correct score markets. For the record, my prediction is 10-5.
In contrast, the Ricky Walden versus Michael Holt affair is far from a straightforward pick and that makes the outsider a good value bet or trade at 2.6. Holt has long been regarded as an underachiever with plenty of natural talent, badly lacking in the temperament department. There have been signs of improvement in that regard and this may not take that much winning.
Walden hasn’t done much since the early season and has yet to win at the Crucible. Perhaps I’m still scarred from backing Ricky when losing an atrocious encounter to Rory Mcleod at this stage two years ago, but he is surely worth opposing at odds-on.
Back Michael White @ 3.1 (vs Williams)
This match could produce the story of the first day and possibly round. The leading Welsh player of his generation, a two-time champion, against the best of his up and coming compatriots. Whereas Williams’ form has been poor, 21 year-old White is storming up the world rankings and destined for the top.
The outcome will largely be determined by how well the youngster settles on his Crucible debut. If this were over best of nine in a lesser event, 3.1 about White would be huge. He seemed confident on previous TV appearances so I expect him to give a good account. The sensational run of another young Welshman, Jamie Jones, in last year’s championship should act as an inspiration.
Milesey
disagree with both of them milesy, i tihkn williams and walden will both edge it
Diasagree with what you like, i don’t expect you to agree with me, like i didn’t with your “” Hamilton to win vs Whitlock and Thornton to win vs wade “” last night, you have to tell me who did win them games ;) ;)
Milesey
Your a cheeky devil milesy. Love our banter. We will see tomorrow when im right
hahaha, we will see tomorrow who’s right ;) ;)
If i’m wrong you can then say, ” I TOLD YOU SO ” :)
Milesey
sometimes we’re right sometimes we are wrong haha i think williams and walden will edge it with their crucible experience
Selby for me as well…long overdue this WC. Fancy “feel sorry for me Ive such a tough life” O’Sullivan to flop (hopefully). put him back in his box so we dont have to listen to his tortured soul routine for another little while.
If games go accordingly, when is the earliest Robertson can meet O’Sullivan? Cheers
The final mate if seeds go through it would be the semi finals as follows
O’Sullivan (1) vs Trump (4)
Robertson (3) vs Selby (2)
Judd Trump ?
You have more chance of ” Donald Trump ” getting into the semi finals.
Milesey
If seeds go through haha. He’s had a terrible season buy he will make the semis
Im doing on from each half
£50 O’sullivan to win 6/1 @ William hill
£50 Robertson to win 13/2 @ William hill
Good luck if your having a bet
Jamesey it would be the final
I’m not sure why every1 is tipping Ronnie, he may b the most talented player eva bt he’s not superman, he’s not played 4 a year tho he’s not got the toughest of draws so I can c him gettin 2 the semis bt that will b it.
the thing is though, he’s still practising, he still has natural ability.. i will not be backing him to win, however, he has the ability and sources say he’s practising and playing well enough to win it.. apparently he’s playing better than he was last year(his long pot percentage is rising)
Cheers mate. I’m not a big snooker fan so don’t know the ins and outs, but like the look of Ronnie tomorrow morning -3.5 frames? Thoughts everyone?
Love my snooker, I think Ronnie will win 2mor bt there’s no current form 2 go by
Ellis were nearly on the same page, I reckon Ronnie v Murphy & Robbo v Selby. Williams hasn’t bn good this yr bt shld win his 1st match. I’m planning Murphy -1.5 or 2.5 against Gould
Haha nice to know someone does haha. The trouble is Murphy has been shocking as of late
Yeah m8 bt the top half of the draw is alot easier than the bottom, I think Murphy will beat an out of form Higgins or Trump & beat Ronnie who cld b a bit rusty. It’s 8/11 4 the winner 2 come from bottom half which includes Robbo, Selby & Allen.
All depends which way you look at it. Had £200 on robbo. Will be concetrating more heavy on decent trebles
Tip for you all!!!!! And I know milesy will rip me if im wrong. Snooker seriously is my sport I follow everything.
Lisowski to beat Hawkins at EVS. A YOUNG MAN BANG ON FORM AOMING TO MAKE HIMSELF A CRUCIBLE LEGEND
Snooker is my thing 2, Iv got £200 free bet, so stuck it on selby, also put £100 on Robbo. There is 6 debutants this yr so prob nt as many upsets as last yr bt I agree think lisowski will bt Hawkins. Il b concentrating on doubles startin wi Murphy & Allen -1.5 dbl
Good double. Ever want a chat haha I’ll always check this post. Sit back and let the fun and games begin
Lol jst watched the 1st 4 frames & the rocket is lookin good.
Good bet on holt milesy hahahaha
It’s not over yet, i said you can say ” I TOLD YOU SO ” When the game is finished, how gutted would you be now if Holt made a comeback, lets hope your quick words come back to bite you now ;)
Milesey
He’s on my 75/1 15 man accumulator haha