MY shortlist this weekend had around 20 teams on it but I managed whittled it down to nine. Then the hard work began!
Out went Arsenal to score 2+, Legia Warsaw to score 2+, Ayr United to score 2+, Airdrieonains to score 2+, Over 2.5 goals at Queen of the South v Dundee United and Both Teams to Score at Gillingham v Bristol Rovers. So then there were three.
And here they are, a banker, a good thing and one to boost the odds that has a right chance.
Luton to Score 2+
Forest Green's form is the very definition of inconsistent; DLWDDLWDWL but although they're second bottom of the table a win against Luton, however unlikely could move them up five places and well clear of the danger zone.
But in League Two they don't come much tougher than a visit from the Hatters how sit top of the table.
The two sides have crossed paths plenty of times in the Conference in recent years and invariably it's been Luton that's come out on top. 22 places and 22 points separate the sides and in Luton's charge towards League One anything other than an away win here would be a big surprise.
Suspensions have hit Forest Green hard with three players having to sit the game out following four cards in as many matches.
Only Man City have scored more league goals than Luton in England and as long as this game goes to form we should see them notch two or more. Odds of around the 8/13 mark won't make us rich but it looks a solid foundation on which to build our treble.
Bristol City v Nottm Forest – Over 2.5 Goals
Followers of this column will know that Forest have been kind to us throughout the season so far and after a fairly quietish run of games they seem to have hit the goals trail again, with a total of 11 goals scored and conceded in their last two matches.
Hosts Bristol City haven't been shy either, scoring seven in their last three (all of which they won) and over 2.5 goals landing in each of their last four. In fact both sides have identical records when it comes to over 2.5 goals – they've each featured in 13 from 21 league matches (almost 62%).
And that looks like the way to play it again. Forest are certainly capable of scoring away from home, they've done so in eight out of 10 but the form suggests a win for the Robins, meaning they may need to score two or more to secure the three points. Again the bookies have priced this up short but it's still worth adding at 13/20.
Kilmarnock to score 2+
I've toyed with quite a few games for my final pick, but @mr-fixit finally convinced me to side with my gut instinct to oppose Motherwell.
After a trio of games against Celtic in which they lost in the Betfred Cup final, drew at home then lost 5-1 at Celtic Park, the Well are looking a shadow of the team that threatened to break in to the top four this season. They've gone on to lose against Hearts and Partick Thistle to make it just one win in seven in the league.
The loss of Louis Moult through injury has been keenly felt and his pending departure to Preston in January will fill some gaps on the balance sheet, but will leave a gaping hole up front.
Steve Clarke's Killie are heading in the opposite direction. Since his arrival at Rugby Park Kilmarnock have recorded some notable results including draws against Rangers and Celtic in Glasgow and have lost just twice in his ten games in charge.
Last week's 5-1 win over Partick Thistle was as good a win as the Ayrshire side have managed in the top division in many a year and a win against Motherwell could take them just one point behind the opponents.
Kilmarnock look a big price at 6/4 to win, and they're the same price to score two or more, which will boost our odds for the treble.
Recommended Bets
- Luton to Score 2+ 8/13
- Bristol City v Nottm Forest – Over 2.5 Goals 4/6
- Kilmarnock to score 2+ 6/4
- Trixie Bet (1 x treble, 3 x doubles = 4 bets) 4pts returns 17.62pts at Bet365
