Oct 30: Johnb’s Racing Tips & Chat

Racing_WilliamHill

JOHNB banked a 0.55pt profit on Saturday thanks to his NB Cultivator which won at 3-1 with a 15p rule 4.

Our man is now 3.23pts up for October and has an each-way double among his Sunday selections.

Johnb’s Sunday Tips

Carlisle 1:35
Sizing Brisbane 11-2 NB bet365

Huntingdon 2:30
Keppel Isle 15-2 NAP bet365

0.5pt eachway Double 54.25-1 bet365

Early NAP for next week

Tuesday: Melbourne Cup
Big Orange 14-1 NAP/NB bet365

Antepost Tips

1000 Guineas 2017

PROMISE TO BE TRUE 20-1 betfred

2000 Guineas 2017

CHURCHILL 20-1 (now 8-1) bet365

2017 Derby

CHURCHILL 33-1 (now 20-1) racebets

2000 Guineas 2017

BLUE POINT 14-1 racebets

Johnb says: “I have already advised Churchill for next year’s 2000 Guineas & Derby – he has been really impressive this season and my view is he will get even better next year.

“Blue Point on the other hand is harder to call for how he will progress next year. If he trains on then in my view it’s a straight fight between Blue Point & Churchill but in the Derby Churchill is the only horse for me – he gives me the same excitement as Golden Horn did.

“But to answer my question earlier the most impressive horse I have seen this year is BLUE POINT with Churchill and Annie Power a close second and third.”

49 Comments
  1. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 month ago

    Far too early in the jumps season to contemplate betting on Bristol De Mai “although he should still win” but he is one for me later in the season as he is one of my antepost picks for the 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup at 50/1
    It’s gearing up to be a cracking Gold Cup and probably the best that I can remember with the likes of Thistlecrack, Killtultagh Vic, Bristol De Mai & Coneygree “my top four” all with outstanding chances and if Annie Power was to run “but she won’t”

    It’s hard to believe Willie Mullins has never won a Gold Cup, which is a reason he wanted to send Annie Power chasing but Rich Richi doesn’t.
    Mullins has had second place in the Gold Cup for the last four years and he might have to settle for second again with what I think his best chance is, Killtultagh Vic “only because Annie won’t be there”

    But going back to Bristol De Mai, he was one of my fancies for the 2017 Gold Cup even before the 2016 race had taken place and 50/1 is far too big but as for tomorrow it’s too early to be backing horses that have Cheltenham as their number one target but Daryl Jacob says he is ready for this race on Sunday so even money could look big

    • Profile photo of elvis parsley
      elvis parsley 1 month ago

      Mullins will get his gold cup win in 2017 with douvan 14-1.
      Bristol de mai got a bit of 2nd itis last season and has a tough opponent tomorrow in more of that who won 1st time out last year and went off
      favourite in the rsa chase
      and I believe broke a blood vessel and still finished 3rd.

      • Profile photo of Johnb
        Johnb 1 month ago

        It’s always hard to know where Mullins will run his horses but I think I can safely say Douvan will be running in the Queen Mother Champion Chase,
        He isn’t a Gold Cup horse

      • Profile photo of elvis parsley
        elvis parsley 1 month ago

        In the RSA more of that beat le mercury by 20 lengths +.
        Le mercury then beat Bristol de mai at aintree

        • Profile photo of Johnb
          Johnb 1 month ago

          I always say people should ask themselves why?
          Why has a horse won?
          Why has a horse lost?
          Because there is always an answer.
          You can’t say this horse beat that horse and that horse beat that horse because they are different circumstance,
          The only reason Bristol De Mai lost at Ayr was because he had a long hard season running every month from October to April & twice in December,
          More of That beat Le Mercury by 26l is because Le Mercury isn’t a 3 mile horse

          Anything could happen tomorrow but I can guarantee that long term Bristol De Mai is a better horse

  2. Profile photo of duncanpoundcake
    duncanpoundcake 1 month ago

    Best race tomorrow only3 runners could we see Gold Cup and Grand National winners in it ,you never know? I’ve had a wee nibble at More of That and Seeyouatmidnght both 33/1 GL.

  3. Profile photo of rookie
    rookie 1 month ago

    E/w selections
    14.45 C In the rough 9/2
    14.10 C Min almerat 12/1
    14.30 H Glendermot 9/1
    13.00 C Buffalo sabre 100/1

  4. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 month ago

    Antepost Tip

    1000 Guineas 2017
    Promise To Be True 20/1 betfred

    Put this one up before she wins the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud on Sunday

    • Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 1 month ago

      Anyone who wants to back her in 1:35 Saint-Cloud she is 2/1 bet365

    • Profile photo of punterpounder
      punterpounder 1 month ago

      there are 8 other runners in the race thares no doubt it has a good chance but I don’t think its certain

      • Profile photo of Johnb
        Johnb 1 month ago

        I haven’t advised her for tomorrow, I have advised her for next year as she should prove to be better as a 3yo
        I believe she will win tomorrow but didn’t advise her because she wasn’t a strong enough bet and nowhere did I say she was a certain winner

        • Profile photo of geo
          geo 1 month ago

          Before she wins on Sunday definitely implies this though doesn’t it?

          • Profile photo of fowler2309
            fowler2309 1 month ago

            No, johnb thinks it will win but obviously hasn’t tipped it. Previous post has ‘Sunday’s tips’ and above is an ‘antepost tip’ I’d say that’s pretty clear. It’s just some info.

          • Profile photo of Johnb
            Johnb 1 month ago

            Advising the antepost bet now before she wins as in if she wins the odds will shorten which is why I am advising the antepost now,
            If I thought she was a guaranteed winner today then I would have double stake tipped her,

  5. Profile photo of dougiec
    dougiec 1 month ago

    Venitia Williams handicap chasers next month will do me for starters.

  6. Profile photo of recoba
    recoba 1 month ago

    Second that DougieC.
    I was just having a look as Miss V. Williams ponies last night. Been close to backing a few but admittedly im glad I didn’t bit she always gets a good patch.

  7. Profile photo of gengar
    gengar 1 month ago

    john do you think big orange is stronly fancied to finish in the top 3 ?

  8. Profile photo of ciaran1988
    ciaran1988 1 month ago

    Heading to Galway for a day at the races. I’m not usually a bettor on the jumps I’m a flats man but I will be having a very large bet on Just Cause @ 11/8 in the 1.45

  9. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 month ago

    Melbourne Cup

    Big Orange can end Great Britain’s streak of Melbourne Cup near misses

    The near-miss record of horses trained in Britain when travelling Down Under to Australia’s Melbourne Cup is little short of astonishing. Perhaps fortunes can change this time.
    In the 23 years since Vintage Crop made history by bringing the trophies for the ‘race that stops a nation’ back to Europe for the first time – specifically to Ireland – the Irish have gone on to win it again, and the French (twice) and the Germans have followed suit.
    But, despite regular efforts by high quality runners, the challengers from Britain have not only never managed a first-place but, rubbing salt into Pommie wounds, they have finished runners-up on no less than eight occasions and third a further five times.
    For the 156th staging of the two-mile, AUS $6.2m (£3.86m) handicap race, staged as always on the first Tuesday in November in the Melbourne suburb of Flemington, spirits remain high, with last year’s British-trained fifth Big Orange amongst the principal hopes.
    The vibes coming from the team around him – Newmarket-based trainer Michael Bell, jockey Jamie Spencer and owners Bill and Tim Gredley – all seem strong.
    This is a ‘big’ prospect in every sense. As well as his name, the form book seems to say Big Orange has an outstanding chance, and he is a powerful, giant of a horse with a long, relentless stride, seen to excellent effect in successes achieved this year in trademark front-running style at Newmarket and at Glorious Goodwood.

    Now, 12 months after Michelle Payne earned herself an indelible place in Australia’s sporting record books by becoming the first female jockey to win ‘the cup’ on Prince Of Penzance,
    the team around Big Orange, dual winner of the Goodwood Cup, are eyeing up their own slice of history. And it too would be big.
    Bell said: “Obviously, I’m very aware how hard it is to win, and how frustrating it can be, because some of my near-neighbours in Newmarket – Ed Dunlop [with Red Cadeaux, three times] and Luca Cumani [with Purple Moon and Bauer] – have tried and only been beaten into second by whiskers.
    “It’s a fantastic horse-race to be involved in and we really enjoyed last year and were keen to come back.
    “He’s won the same [two] races in 2016 as he did in 2015, but he was a more emphatic winner in both of them, and he’s not run since Goodwood at the end of July, so we’ve tried to leave a bit of extra petrol in the tank and he’s fresh and raring to go.”
    Despite the five-year-old, a son of the stallion Duke Of Marmalade bred by part-owner Bill Gredley, running so well 12 months ago, and seemingly putting up his best ever performances during the British flat racing season, Aussie officials have allotted him just one more pound in the handicap. That said he still carries most weight of the expected 24 runners.

    Additionally, Bell says the horse has taken the 39-hour journey from Newmarket to Melbourne better this time; with so many apparent positives, support for Big Orange has risen markedly.
    He added: “The media interest is unlike any other horseracing event in the world. I mean the newspapers over here are absolutely full of it- front page, back page – it’s on every news channel, on the TV and there’s a huge interest surrounding the event and everyone gets slightly caught up in it.
    “We were slightly under the radar last year. Red Cadeaux was running, and he was quite rightly the centre of attention, but there’s significantly more interest this year given how well he ran last year.”
    Big Orange has been joined on the trip Down Under from Newmarket by four horses from Sheikh Mohammed’s Godolphin stable. These are Beautiful Romance and Secret Number, trained by Saeed bin Suroor, and recent Geelong Cup winner Qewy and Oceanographer, successful in Flemington’s ‘win-and-you’re-in’ Lexus Stakes, both under the care of Charlie Appleby.
    Godolphin also has the favourite Hartnell, formerly part of the Mark Johnston stable in North Yorkshire, but now with John O’Shea in Australia. Jockey James McDonald, who made such an impression while based in Britain during this last summer, is due to ride.

    From Ireland, meanwhile, Bondi Beach, trained by Aidan O’Brien, Ebor Handicap winner Heartbreak City (Tony Martin) and the Frankie Dettori-ridden Wicklow Brave (Willie Mullins) make up a three-pronged challenge.
    Having assessed the field – in which Big Orange has a favourably low draw in the barrier (stalls) at seven – Bell said: “When you come to a race like this, especially this far from home, you just want your horse to perform with credit so that you are proud of him after the race.
    “I am sure he won’t let us down. It’s a tough ask to win, but he’s going to run a big, big race.”

  10. Profile photo of deeman
    deeman 1 month ago

    Hi john. I see Silvinanco Conte is racing next week at Down Royal. I will be in attendance. Do you fancy his chances?

  11. Profile photo of punterpounder
    punterpounder 1 month ago

    L15

    1.35 saint cloud- promice to be true 13/8

    2.45 saint cloud- capri 6/5

    3.50 carslile- Bristol de mai 1/1

    4.05 Huntington- ballybolley 4/6

    placed last night @betway

    good luck to all having a punt

  12. Profile photo of double carpet
    double carpet 1 month ago

    NAP CAPRI 2.45 saint-cloud
    have doubled him with Alanm’s nap
    only other bet so far today is FULL JACK 10/1 EW 2.45 carlisle
    Will probably have a dabble or two throughout the day

    best of luck to all

  13. Profile photo of dougiec
    dougiec 1 month ago

    Morning all,extra hour in bed I don’t think.
    David Loders sends 2 to Carlisle from Shropshire?
    Western Wave..2.30
    Electoral.4.20 and throw in Apple Jack 3.40 Wexford for ew patent.
    Nap
    Onefitzall..3.15 given the jockeys record here.
    gl.

  14. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 1 month ago

    NAP Just Cause 6/4 1.45 Galway
    NB MY Mo 15/8 1.55 Huntingdon
    EW Sergeant Mattie 14/1 3.15 Carlisle

  15. Profile photo of duncanpoundcake
    duncanpoundcake 1 month ago

    Tracker throws up 3 in the same race 3.15 Carlisle 1,2 and 9 mixed f/casts,tricasts 12 small stake bets GL.

  16. Profile photo of ew thief
    ew thief 1 month ago

    Morning all some great tipping again yesterday lads dougie DC Alanm Ryan 👌
    Gurkha brave 1.35c 12/1
    Jackthejourneyman 2.30h 7/1
    Full jack 2.45h 15/2
    Flemi two shoes 3.00h 16/1
    Island heights 3.15c 14/1
    Ew singles & ew lucky 🍀 31 GL all

  17. Profile photo of dougiec
    dougiec 1 month ago

    miffed Duncan, but I’ll use 9 with 7
    gl

    • Profile photo of duncanpoundcake
      duncanpoundcake 1 month ago

      Was at Ayr yesterday tried to post Special Catch but I see it didn’t work never mind seems you all had a good day anyway ,well done onward etc

  18. Profile photo of busstop
    busstop 1 month ago

    Afternoon all

    Carlisle

    16.20 KELPIES MYTH .. *** NAP ***

    Huntingdon

    14.30 NORSE LIGHT **

    15.00 GENEROUS HELPINGS **

    15.35 JIM DANDY ..*** NB ***

    were off for the usual Sunday afternoon pub session

    gl all

  19. Profile photo of azzthewigan
    azzthewigan 1 month ago

    Ulis De vassy 1.20 knockgraffon 1.35 peoples park 1.45,mintalemarat 2.10 l15

  20. Profile photo of double carpet
    double carpet 1 month ago

    Putting up a couple more

    2.20 ROCKY COURT
    3.00 GIVEITACHANCE
    2 x singles ew double

  21. Profile photo of duncanpoundcake
    duncanpoundcake 1 month ago

    More of That a n/r more than miffed was looking forward to that race no end

  22. Profile photo of eye on the prize
    eye on the prize 1 month ago

    Promise to be true only third but on the plus side beaten by two horses that churchill had dismissed last time out that’s three from that race now that have franked the form 👍

  23. Profile photo of double carpet
    double carpet 1 month ago

    Top shout dougie

  24. Profile photo of duncanpoundcake
    duncanpoundcake 1 month ago

    Nice one Dougie you’re in some form WD

  25. Profile photo of dougiec
    dougiec 1 month ago

    ew thief back with a bang 2 from 2 great stuff Mine was more speculative as I can’t remember Loder at Carlisle with any ggs,
    Upwards definitely

  26. Profile photo of uksevern
    uksevern 1 month ago

    happy days.. busstop

  27. Profile photo of theplug
    theplug 1 month ago

    nap/nb kings wharf 3-40 wexford 11/4

  28. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 1 month ago

    No bet today just seen my tracker had seeyouatmodnight 🙈O well

  29. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 month ago

    3pts lost Sunday, all it takes is one mistake for a horse to lose all chance of winning over the jumps and Sunday’s Nap Keppel Isle made a huge mistake 3 out and I can’t believe he managed to stay up, he was cruising at that point but had nothing left after that mistake, the jockey asked for another big jump but the horse decided he wanted to put in another half stride,
    but jumping is the name of the game

    Mondays Tips

    Wexford
    1:25
    Light That 10/3 NAP bet365

    Galway
    2:25
    Hash Brown 7/2 NB bet365

    Double 18.5/1 bet365

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