Nov 30: Johnb’s Racing Tips & Chat

55 Comments
  1. Profile photo of jonny0902
    jonny0902 1 year ago

    3:10 p – LEITH HILL LEGASSI…..5/4….NAP

    2:10 p – MILLICENT SILVER….9/4….NB

  2. Profile photo of
    1 year ago

    Johnb can you let us know your reasons for picking those 2 ? before anybody parts with there hard earned cash IMO Tambura looks in the grip of the handicapper with its latest 2 runs pretty poor and Eastern Witness your double stake NAP/NB was pulled up only 25 days ago and looks like a horse indecline yeh V Williams horses usually do alright when the mud is flying and its only got 10/6 on its back but a’m struggling to see how it can beat Leith Hill Legasi who only haves to give it 7 pound. Both races small fields but pretty competitive poor racing certainly no bets for me tomorrow so good luck.

  3. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 year ago

    Things are never what they seem

    Eastern Witness may look like a horse in decline but there are always reasons why a horse gets beat

    I don’t pick a horse because the trainer may have a good record on testing ground but the horse also has to be able to run on it and Eastern Witness can run on soft/heavy going.

    So people may be wondering why Eastern Witness hasn’t won any of last 6 times the horse has been on soft or heavy going
    As I was saying there is always a reason a horse doesn’t win
    with Eastern Witness those reasons are that he hasn’t had his distance or a favourable handicap mark at the same time

    Now on a mark of 79 over 3 mile + distance with testing ground he now has his ideal race
    and the icing on the cake is that it’s a weak race

    Leith Hill Lagasi is the favourite because of a good run last time but some horses can’t handle an increase in weight and she is one of them
    raised 7lb for that win is enough to get her beat

    People can say “but she has won off a rating of 85″ which is just 1lb lower than Monday’s rating but that was with a 5lb claimed onboard

    As I said it’s a weak race but a mark of 86 with a horse like Eastern Witness in the race is too high for Leith Hill Legasi

    Eastern Witness did run ok last time leading to just before the 3rd last in a race that was the wrong distance and ground

    • Profile photo of jimron12
      jimron12 1 year ago

      Totally agree lay the fav 7 pound increase will catch her out this race is a muddler I’ll follow jb as always but I’m rather cautious

      • Profile photo of the don cossack
        the don cossack 1 year ago

        Follow, but not part with your cash. ay jimron? lol

        can’t find any good reason not to follow eastern wittness though and will have dabble in the hope johnbs form returns?!

  4. Profile photo of davyb
    davyb 1 year ago

    ruzeiz 12.55 wol
    edith Weston 1.25 wol
    moon river 1.55 wol
    brassbound 3.00 wol

  5. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 1 year ago

    I quite like evascufe lady in the first at kempton as was mentioned earlier looks thrown in lesser company!!

    • Profile photo of rale
      rale 1 year ago

      Reasonings for the max bet: 16lb lower mark, counting 7lb claimer, who won on her before, than run last year over C&D which she would have won, only she met trouble. Got a nice blowout the other day, which will set her nicely for this (her best) trip. Nice 4yr old which can be progressive for a trainer in form.
      All credit (or abuse) goes to free tipster from Twitter PTMAHON.

      • Profile photo of rale
        rale 1 year ago

        Another max bet advised, this time by craigyboy.
        Spirit Of Gondree K 3:20 16/1 (already backed from 25/1)
        These are tipsters that have good record of hitting those max bets.
        Don’t shoot the messenger if it goes t… up.

        • Profile photo of rale
          rale 1 year ago

          Spirit Of Gondree as low as 7/1 now. Serious gamble from 25/1. I personally don’t like it. It will probably go bit more down, than cue brutal drift before off and … That’s what normally happens.

      • Profile photo of rale
        rale 1 year ago

        Max pile of…

  6. Profile photo of
    1 year ago

    Cheers for your reply i agree it is certainly a weak race but pretty competitive real poor bunch who will be walking home on that ground. On known form i cant see it getting the 3m2 its form on soft or heavy is no better than good its also never ran at Plumpton before quirky track with a few fences that take a bit of jumping hope a’m wrong good luck.

  7. Profile photo of
    1 year ago

    That should have been its form on soft or heavy is no better than good/soft but i can see where your coming from with the going maybe the good ground last time at Towcester was to fast for it.

  8. Profile photo of jonny0902
    jonny0902 1 year ago

    The ground and distance won’t be a problem for the fav, and I can’t see the weight stopping him

    • Profile photo of elvis parsley
      elvis parsley 1 year ago

      in eastern witness last run when pulled up he was getting at least a stone off the other horses and had a 3lb claimer on as well.
      it has ran 14 times under rules.
      1x 2nd
      3x 3rd
      11 unplaced
      most races had fields of similar size as today.
      Treadwell on today, been on it twice before in early 2014.
      7th of 16 and
      pulled up on HEAVY ground at Chepstow.
      he has ran 3miles + twice
      at southwell when pulled up getting at least 7lb off the finishers.
      at bangor when 5th of 7 beaten 44 lengths.

  9. Profile photo of the don cossack
    the don cossack 1 year ago

    not sure if i could pick a bogey, in the desert, tomorrow?
    i will try…..2.10 for has to be cannon fodder,cd specialist, last was 6th lenthgs 5th behind bit of a puzzle[amazing form given todays oppenents], ascot grade1!!! soft, won in heavey .
    best form all seems to have come in soft and heavey had a much higher rating. 12+
    went wrong and looks on the comback trail. 2.10pm plumpton cannon fodder 11t2 Nap
    [if strange bird runs well it may boast the chances of lieth hill, was 2nd to him last year.]

  10. Profile photo of jim burnside
    jim burnside 1 year ago

    Reading what ive read jonb eastern witness is a in a weak race BUT after reading that frm elvis parsley its understandable why its a bit of a rag by the sounds of it and can’t understand why u wld make this a nap? Defo not fr me and thanks fr that info elvis.

  11. Profile photo of duncanpoundcake
    duncanpoundcake 1 year ago

    GL with Evacusafe Lady lads ,if I had to then the race looks set up for Bennelong ,but I don’t have to so GL.

  12. Profile photo of
    1 year ago

    Morning everyone

    No bet for me yesterday on what looked a difficult day for everybody

    W 1.25 SECRET INTERLUDE 2/1

    W 3.00 BRASSBOUND 3/1

    W 4.05 OIL STRIKE 11/4

    K 5.20 NORTRON 8/1

    K 5.50 HUMOUR 11/2

    good luck everyone

    happy days

  13. Profile photo of
    1 year ago

    I have been told to bet WHOS MICKY BROWN which has only run in point to points so far
    and is running in the nh flat race have took 100/30 on bet 365

    make your own minds up (not my own pick)

  14. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 year ago

    This is for everyone, but a mention to elvis parsley well done you are reading form which some punters don’t do.
    But reading the bare form isn’t enough if people are serious about making money
    99% of punters lose money long term, I haven’t got stats to prove it but I think everyone knows long term the bookie wins with the vast majority of punters

    Reading the bare form and posting it shows you are putting the time in but the vast majority of punters rely on the bare form and they lose long term

    It’s proven that just studying this way doesn’t work because the bookies can also read form, they spend vast amounts of money & time “more than we have” to stay a step or two in front of the punter
    They know the best horse on form and that’s why with the majority of prices for the “best horse” there is no value
    You can have a 1/4 favourite that is better value than a 6/4 favourite

    People need to learn to do thing differently, the pro punters I talk about on the forum do things differently, yes they still use the bare form like everyone else but they don’t just rely on it,
    I don’t just rely on it.

    Some people can say “I get 40% winners” but winners mean nothing when it comes to betting if you want to make money

    ROI “return on investment” means everything
    Harry Findley famously said nobody can make over 8% ROI
    he was making 4.2% ROI

    I constantly make 10% ROI a bad year for me would be less than 8%

    The great Patrick Veitch seen by many “including me” as the best professional punter ever was making 16.4% ROI

    To make money and I mean making money long term a punter has to change his or her mindset because it can be done

    when I study I don’t just read the form, I watch previous races and not just once but many times because as I have said many times before Punters should trust their eyes because much more can be learned from watching a race than just reading about it

    At some point I will be putting a forum up about what I look at when studying

    Anyway I seem to have got away from this race with Eastern Witness,
    The bare form which has been mentioned had already been explained by myself earlier and gave my reasons for the horse not winning

  15. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 1 year ago

    Nap Sunbaked 9/4 2.50 Kempton
    NB Honeymoon Cocktail 13/2 4.50 Kempton watch the market on this one
    Gold Star Sirius Move 22 /1 1.25 Wolverhampton GL

    Kempton should be fun today GL Rale

  16. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 1 year ago

    Rosenbaum 3.00 nap

    Princess Tara 2.10’nb

    Good luck all

  17. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 1 year ago

    JOHNNYS LEGACY 12.55 Wolverhampton PP 33/1 all the rest 100/1 has to be worth a quid ew

  18. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 1 year ago

    WOW My quid fairly moved the market still 1 or 2 100/1 about :)

  19. Profile photo of wullieboy
    wullieboy 1 year ago

    Princess Tara 2.10 mytimehascome 4.20k

  20. Profile photo of rale
    rale 1 year ago

    Great start JB!

  21. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 1 year ago

    Well done Johnb great pick

  22. Profile photo of the don cossack
    the don cossack 1 year ago

    Well done Johnb, that one was more painful, than my any currency bet 9s! also pipped on the line by something you,d tipped that I couldn’t bet on. Won just like you said , clearly the extra distance suited.

  23. Profile photo of glasgowbhoy
    glasgowbhoy 1 year ago

    Excellent johnb. Was on that so im well chuffed. Thanks

  24. Profile photo of chilleden
    chilleden 1 year ago

    Top stuff John B. Thank you.

  25. Profile photo of tam1888
    tam1888 1 year ago

    Poor performance from the NAP there, shame as it would have brought month into profit

  26. Profile photo of rj
    rj 1 year ago

    Hard luck jb, I reckon you’re gonna land at least one decent double before xmas. Been knocking on the door for a few days now!

  27. Profile photo of jim burnside
    jim burnside 1 year ago

    Yeeeoooo winner at last cheers stevieg

  28. Profile photo of glasgowbhoy
    glasgowbhoy 1 year ago

    Ah following you johnb is frustrating. Won on ur 1st bet and doubled my bet on ur nap. Aahhhh!

    • Profile photo of rale
      rale 1 year ago

      At least we can’t complain this time. We got John’s reasoning, we got reasoning why not to bet on it, from Elvis and it was our choice at the end of the day.

  29. Profile photo of rj
    rj 1 year ago

    Glasgow. If u backed the double as well u should have broke even maybe half a point up. If u didn’t back the double u should be over 1 point up. What’s frustrating about that?

    • Profile photo of glasgowbhoy
      glasgowbhoy 1 year ago

      I didnt back the double. When i say frustrating what i mean is the horse hes most confident about i double my bet and it loses. And i am in profit for today but annoyed the nap/nb nvr won

  30. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 year ago

    I tell people to watch races to study horses,
    The 3:10 should be watched which I have done 5 times already

    For a front runner like Eastern Witness to sit at the back 10+ lengths behind the favourite is strange
    Eastern Witness was a bit sketchy at some fences which isn’t like the horse and the best explanation is it was because he was at the back,
    If you lead you lead it gives the horse a better view of the fences
    Another thing to note is that although Eastern Witness was still going well turning for home the jockey only picked his whip up once and I have seen far more aggressive rides to say the least,

    Take nothing away from the winner I got Leith Hill Legasi wrong and didn’t fancy the horse but watch this space for Eastern Witness as I wouldn’t be surprised if the horse was to run up a sequence of wins.

    I think connections knew what they were doing today

  31. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 year ago

    Ended my run of a 4/1 winner a day with a 5/1 winner today and a 2 point profit

    November ends with a 17.37 point loss which just keeps the yearly profit above 100 pts

  32. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 year ago

    JP McManus in hot water after stewards’ hold inquiries concerning five of his horses

    LEGENDARY punter JP McManus was in hot water at the weekend when the stewards’ held inquiries concerning the running and riding of five of his horses

    At Fairyhouse on Saturday, Pat Fahy, the trainer of McManus’s Shantou Ed, was fined £700, and his rider Alan Crowe received a seven-day suspension while the horse was banned from racing for 30 days.

    The performances of the other McManus runners, Blow The Doors Off, Staker Wallace and Uaintseenothingyet were ‘noted.’

    At Newbury’s Hennessy Gold Cup meeting the Nicky Henderson-trained Full Shift, the 7-2 favourite, was the subject of a stewards’ inquiry after finishing last of the eight runners to complete the course.

    They noted Henderson’s explanation that the gelding was never travelling.

  33. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 1 year ago

    Last 5 days no Naps or NB winners that’s BAD so must try harder onwards we go.
    GOO JMAYMYO 4/1 5.50K

    • Profile photo of jimron12
      jimron12 1 year ago

      Alanm I was just about to mention this horse but as with our record of same horses I may not bother!!!

      I have a 5£ free bet tho so I’m willing to get involved 😉

  34. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 1 year ago

    Only horse I mentioned last night was with hindsight and with
    Hindsight I should of napped it!!!!

  35. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 year ago

    Tuesday’s Tips

    Southwell
    12:45
    Ballymoat 9/2 paddy power

    Wolverhampton
    4:10
    Fire and Passion 6/4 NAP/NB bet365 (double stake)

    Double
    Ballymoat & Fire and Passion 11.5/1 bet365

    I am advising to get on quickly with bet365
    Price won’t last because the horse should be 1/2

  36. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 year ago

    When I say quickly I mean for Fire and Passion

  37. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 year ago

    Still 6/4 my money hasn’t shortened the odds

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