HIGHLIGHT of my day was putting up a nice 5-1 goals treble that fairly cruised in. Lowlight was backing Altach not to lose but that Super Single loss was cancelled out by Sivasspor beating an under-strength Galatasaray in the Turkish Cup.
Overall it was a good day and watch out for some hot news later about a new goals thread on the site kicking off tomorrow.
My 1pt treble was both to score at Ried v Altach and over 2.5 goals at Falkenbergs v Kalmar and Barcelona B v Real Valladolid. The Top Treble is now showing a profit of more than 23 points this month and I’m hoping that form continues.
Tonight there are big games north and south of the border with Rangers facing Hibs in the Scottish Premiership play-off semi-final and Arsenal taking on Sunderland in the Premier league.
I’ve posted a separate preview on the Rangers game and reckon Arsenal will seal third spot against a Sunderland needing one point from their last two matches to avoid the drop – their final encounter is at Chelsea on Sunday.
Arsenal were beaten at home to Swansea in their last outing but you’d expect them to bounce back. The price though isn’t great at a best 1-3 with the likes of Coral and Paddy Power so it might pay to be on unders as I’m pretty sure Sunderland boss Dick Advocaat will park the bus and a couple of artics too.
On the continent the big game is Juventus v Lazio in the Italian Cup Final. Champions and Champions League finalists Juve are clearly the better side but this one’s complicated by the match being played in Roma so it’s a home tie for Lazio and they’ve won their last four on home soil in the tournament against the Turin giants.
There is also the small matter of Lazio facing Roma – in a match that’s been moved to Monday – in their fight for a Champions League spot. However, Juve tempt me having done the double over Lazio this season, 2-0 at home and 3-0 in the Olympic Stadium, and won five of the last six meetings between the sides. They are a best 23-20 at William Hill, Ladbrokes and BetVictor.
Carlos Tevez has netted twice against Lazio this season and Juve’s top scorer would be my choice to break the deadlock at 5-1 with Paddy Power.
Elsewhere there are Dutch and Belgian play-offs, matches in Scandinavia and the second Turkish Cup semi-final between Fenerbahce and Bursaspor. It was 2-1 Fener in the first leg.
Having studied the matches closely I reckon Juventus will win but as they’re without Claudio Marchisio and Champions League hero Alvaro Morata there is enough doubt for me not to take them as a Super Single. Best bet on the game could be both to score at 1-1 with William Hill and that’s on the Top Treble.
So in a bid to reduce the Super Single losses I’m turning to an old favourite – Red Bull Salzburg. The Austrians need a point at Sturm Graz to clinch the title while their hosts are fighting for a Europa League spot so it should be a cracking game.
Salzburg have scored 2+ in their last nine away matches and Graz 2+ in their last eight home games so a repeat of the 2-2 draw Red Bull battled out at Altach is an interesting thought.
Nine out of Red Bull’s last 10 matches have gone over 2.5 goals and although Graz’s last two have gone under before that it was seven out of eight. On the head-to-heads both have netted in their last five which have also gone over 2.5 goals.
So for me this game has to produce goals – both should score, it should go over 2.5 and it has every chance of going over 3.5. For the Super Single I’ve decided to do 6pts on over 2.5 and 2pts on over 3.5. Good luck if you decide to follow and the only team news that concerns me is a doubt to Red Bull top scorer Jonathan Soriano. If you want to wait to see if Soriano starts then do so – but I don’t really have that option.
The Top Treble profit’s so good I’m happy to start with btts at Juventus-Lazio and add btts at Grodig v Rapid Vienna. Rapid lie second behind Salzburg so need the leaders to slip up in Graz.
Rapid have netted almost two a game and Grodig have conceded almost two a game but in their last nine the only games they failed to score in were against Salzburg.
To complete the treble I’m adding btts at Sturm Graz – I might as well be in for a penny as they say. An option for anyone who doesn’t want to put Red Bull in again is Elfsborg v Helsingborgs or Norrkoping v Hammarby.
6pts Sturm Graz v Red Bull over 2.5 goals (7.30pm)
2pts Sturm Graz v Red Bull over 3.5 goals
2pts Top Treble
Sturm Graz v Red Bull btts
Grodig v Rapid Vienna btts (7.30pm)
Juventus v Lazio btts
May Super Single record
22 bets (8 winners, 14 losers)
May Top Treble record
17 bets (8 winners, 9 losers)
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