Jan 21: Nick Luck’s Saturday Racing Tips

NickLuck

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STEERING clear of the obvious short-priced favourites Thistlecrack, Un De Sceaux and Co., the horse that I have put up as my best bet at Cheltenham in my Oddschecker column is Walk In The Mill in the two-and-a-half mile handicap chase at 1.10pm.

This is a horse who has spent quite a bit of his time running over a distance short of his best and as such he has managed to stay ahead of the handicapper. While it is difficult to know exactly what he achieved at Wincanton in a race run in thick fog, he did win by a long long way in what was a competitive race on paper and on his first try at this trip.

We know he is effective on soft so the surface shouldn’t inconvenience him and although his trainer doesn’t have a bucket load of winners, he places his horses quite shrewdly. I’m a bit worried about my old friend Regal Encore for all the reasons you know about if you are a regular reader of this column, but this trip could be on the sharp side for him and he wouldn’t want the ground much softer.

Any softening of the ground will be no problem for Theo’s Charm who could run a big race in the novices’ handicap chase at 12.35pm. He was a very respectable seventh in the Champion Bumper a couple of seasons ago and was a decent novice hurdler last year, but he looks to have improved again this time around judged on his good second over the Fixed Brush hurdles at Haydock in November and his two placed efforts over fences have come over an inadequate stamina test.

I really think this horse needs three miles and soft ground, and Wayne Hutchinson, who was on board for that career-best performance at Haydock, is back on board again today, which looks significant.

After the big beasts have strutted their stuff, there is a pause for breath to enjoy the Cross County Chase and, whilst these are not normally races I like getting stuck into, I think that Auvergnat could run well today. He’s a horse that didn’t really fulfil his potential for Jonjo O’Neill but appears to have been sweetened up by the switch to Enda Bolger’s stable and even more significantly, he seemed to take well to the unusual obstacles on his first spin over them at Punchestown. This being a handicap, he receives a stack of weight from his stablemate Cantlow, particularly with Rachael Blackmore’s 5lb claim taken into account, and he certainly wasn’t given a hard time behind his stable companion last time.

On what could be a productive and almost certainly informative day for J P McManus, Kimberlite Candy is a tentative selection in the Neptune trial at 3.25. I’ve got enormous regard for his trainer Tom Lacey who I think brings his horses along patiently and expertly. This horse is bred to be a strong stayer in soft ground but has already shown more zip than his pedigree suggests in his two hurdles wins so far. He’s come quite a long way in quite a short space of time and looks ready for this tougher assignment.

There are no obvious negatives about Unowhatimeanharry in the Cleeve Hurdle (4.00) but there is scope for an each-way bet in this contest. The one I like is West Approach who looked to be running a solid race in the Long Walk before unseating his rider last time. I’m not sure what to make of that race from a form perspective but I think he would have nearly won the novices’ hurdle here at Cheltenham in December had he avoided that bad mistake at the second last, and he does look to be improving quite rapidly despite this being a relatively advanced stage of his career.

Whilst the racing at Doncaster doesn’t quite match up to that at Prestbury Park, it’s a pretty serious supporting card and there are one or two bets to be had, the first being Give Me A Copper in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle at 1.25. He gets 3lb from his main market rival and could hardly have been more impressive at Exeter on his hurdles debut. He has been getting rave reviews from his trainer recently and could be anything at this stage.

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1 Comment
  1. Profile photo of ray_ez
    ray_ez 10 months ago

    Thanks Nick for west approach. Had an Ew double with Johnb’s short listed Ziga boy.

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