FIRST Bournemouth and now Birmingham. You can bet on thing – I won’t be making it a Championship hat-trick of Super Single losses next weekend.
A late Leeds goal denied Birmingham three points at Elland Road but at least the way the match went allowed the option to cash out or cover – more of that later.
I was supremely confident of my Top Treble but Derby picked the wrong day not to turn up and Aberdeen chose today of all days to finally conceded not one, not two, but three goals as they battled back to draw 3-3 against Dundee. That loss for me was cancelled out by the European treble coming in at 4-1 – it as one of those days.
Ironically the biggest price on my Super Single – and the only that was really doubted before hand – was Liverpool and of course they were 2-0 winners at Aston Villa … or Aston Nilla as I hear they are now being called.
On my top tips I suggested 5pts on Birmingham and will add a 5pts loss to the stats but when draw went as big as 6-1 I advised covering that as according to 5 Live “it was all Leeds”. There seems to be gasps of horror whenever I talk about covering – or cashing out – bets but it’s part of punting.
Everyone is quite right to go along with the “I’ve placed the bet so I’ll let it run” but there’s always the next day.
My 5pts are equivalent to £50 so faced with a choice of losing £50 or at worst winning a tenner by putting £10 on the draw – for me it’s a no-brainer. Of course I’d rather Birmingham had held out but for me today the Super Single loser wasn’t a loser and I hope people understand where I’m coming from.
Controversial contributor Harpreet, who tipped 2-2 at Burnley at 20-1, also told anyone who had backed it take over 4.5 goals at I think 15-4 with seven or eight minutes to go and that advice was criticised even though it was spot on.
The 1pt European treble I added to the top tips in the afternoon was Monaco, Villarreal and both to score at Palermo v Roma.
Elsewhere I was a Stranraer goal short on my both teams to score fourfold and that Leeds goal beat an aways treble.
There were plenty of winners put up on the site from various people, including Greg and raaljaca, and that late one from raaljaca on both to score at Penafiel-Porto was a beauty.
I’m starting Sunday’s Top Treble with Marseille at home to Guingamp. Marseille have been knocked off the top of the table after successive defeats to Montpellier and Monaco and it’s time they hit back.
Defender Nicolas N’Koulou, midfielder Alexander N’Doumbou and striker Andre Ayew are at the African Nations but Guingamp’s squad is even more stretched with defender Baissama Sankoh, midfielder Sambou Yatabare and forward Ladislas Douniama in Equatorial Guinea and striker Christophe Mandanne banned as well as injury doubts over several others.
Guingamp were on a nine-game unbeaten run until losing at Monaco in midweek and I expect Marseille to win at a biggest 4-9 with bet365 and others to make it 10 home league wins on the spin.
Next up it’s Sevilla at a decent price to beat Malaga. The sides are separated by just five points but Sevilla are in fine form – unbeaten in nine and without a home defeat in 17.
A downside is Malaga haven’t lost any of the last five meetings but on current form Sevilla will do this. Sevilla are without banned defender Nico Pareja while striker Stephane M’Bia is at the African Nations but neither side has any fresh injury worries.
Complete the treble with Barcelona -1 (1-2, Paddy Power) at lowly Deportivo with the Catalans refreshed after resting their stars in the Spanish Cup clash at Elche in midweek and buoyed by their 3-1 defeat of Atletico Madrid in the league last time out.
Barca have struggled to score on the road under Luis Enrique but have netted 12 on their last three visits to the Riazor and looked back to their best against Atletico after the controversy surrounding Lionel Messi’s relationship with the manager.
I expect Real Madrid at Getafe to also win well in the early game and after beating Verona 6-1 in the Italian Cup in midweek Juventus face the same opponents at the same venue and will be supremely confident of at least covering the -1 handicap at 1-2 with Betfred.
I’ve debating with myself about the Super Single for hours and have decided to go for Anderlecht -2 based on stats and form. It’s second v rock bottom Lierse as Anderlecht try to close the gap on leaders Bruges to two points.
Anderlecht have netted 29 goals this season while Lierse have conceded 47 and when you look at recent matches between the pair in Brussels the -2 stands out.
The last seven have been 2-0, 4-1, 4-0, 6-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 5-1 – so five have been won by three or more with Anderlecht netting 24 times. I looked at Anderlecht race to three goals but it was slightly short at under evens while an alternative could be Anderlecht AH -2 at a smaller price – but I’m happy to chance the -2.
Lierse have lost eight defeats and drawn two of their last 10 and are nine points adrift of safety. Last month they were hammered 6-0 by Charleroi and Bruges so this should be another thumping.
Anderlecht -2 (1.30pm)
Barcelona -1 (6pm)
(3-1, Paddy Power)
Both teams to score
Man City v Arsenal (4pm)
Genoa v Sassuolo (2pm)
Lazio v Napoli (11.30am)
Super Single 2015 record: 14 bets
(4 winners, 8 losers, 3 void)
And don’t forget to check out our friends at Welovebetting for more tips and video chat
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