Dec 3: English Football Preview

MrF_Chelsea

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THE jury’s still out on Man City under Pep Guardiola but Chelsea look the team to beat with Antonio Conte at the helm.

Pep started at a rate of knots with 10 wins in a row before the wheels came off against Celtic.

A 3-1 defeat of Barcelona showed their class but since then City have been ordinary with two 1-1 draws and two 2-1 defeats of Burnley and Crystal Palace.

Conte, meanwhile, changed to a 3-4-3 formation that’s resulted in seven league wins a row – the first Chelsea boss to achieve that since Jose Mourinho in 2007.

I like Chelsea’s chances at the Etihad today and they are a best 27-10 at McBookie but slightly put off by stats that show they’ve taken two points from 12 versus their title rivals who are unbeaten in 14 at home.

It will be tight so the best bet could be Chelsea draw no bet at 4-5 with 188Bet and both teams should score as City always concede these days. That returns 13-20 at McBookie.

City are a biggest 6-5 at Betfred and back Sergio Aguero to score at 15-13 with 888sport – he’s netted four in his last two meetings with the Londoners.

No.10s have netted 58 Premier League goals this season with Aguero (10) and Eden Hazard (7) responsible for one third of that total.

Hazard is 11-4 at 888sport to hit the target while his on-form team-mate Diego Costa is 9-5 with the same firm.

Today’s other live game sees Arsenal visit West Ham and having rested almost an entire team and lost to Southampton in the EFL Cup in midweek Arsene Wenger needs a win to justify his selection. The Gunners are 4-5 at Betfred to get it.

Swansea beat Crystal Palace 5-4 last week but both defences were woeful. Spurs are out of the Champions League but boosted by Harry Kane signing a new deal.

They are pretty short at 4-11 to win so take Kane at 4-5 with bet365 with to celebrate his pay hike with a goal.

I tipped West Brom at Hull last week but missed chances cost them the victory. They’ve been decent at home though and are 6-5 at McBookie to beat Swansea.

The Championship is as usual tough to call – look at last week when even Newcastle let us down by losing at home to Blackburn.

Owen Coyle is going for three wins in a row for Rovers and while they look good at 7-4 with BetBright home to Huddersfield their is still a poisonous atmosphere at Ewood Park with fans wanting owner and manager out.

A better bet could be Burton at 4-5 with William Hill at home to a Rotherham side who have lost four on the bounce.

Derby have been one of the form sides since Steve McClaren returned and are 13-10 at bet365 to win at Wigan. Let’s see what nathan has to say about that one.

Leeds v Aston Villa looks a draw as does Cardiff v Brighton and while Norwich boss Alex Neil needs a win he may have to settle for a point against Brentford. In fact the Bees might be worth chancing at 22-23 with 888sport to win or draw against a side on a five-match losing streak.

Reading were my Super Single last week and they every chance of making it five wins in a row against an inconsistent Fulham side at Craven Cottage.

Recommended Bets

Chelsea draw no bet

Kane to score

West Brom

Brentford not to lose

Leeds v Aston Villa draw

 

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3 Comments
  1. Profile photo of nathanufton
    nathanufton 1 year ago

    It seems I was spot on about the Notts Forest game with the btts and the Forest win prediction. I even got the scoreline right at 2-1. The reason I felt the tree huggers would win was twofold. First, Newcastle proved that although they did tweak their team last week, they are beatable. I just never envisaged they’d see red cards twice. Secondly, with Derby hosting Forest next Sunday, Forest would want to seize on anything – stats, form, scalps, – anything that can give a team an extra 1% in such a big upcoming match.
    They face a Derby side that have won their last 5, drawn one and lost once ( from the last 7 matches ). both those last 2 results were injurytime goals. 90+ minutes on the clock, so on paper, Derby’s past form looks worse than it actually is. Forest have their work cut out in taming the rams come next week. Anyway, onto Wigan later today:

    On the back of some wretched form, Wigan somehow got the better of Huddersfield who made a blistering start to the season. Wigans last match they won 2-1. Their team isn’t bristling with quality, BUT former Derby workhorse Jake Buxton is now a regular in the Wigans central defence and whilst he’s often punched above his weight for Derby when we leaned on him to deliver, the Wigan team around him are not up to that same standard as at the Ipro, so he’s likely to get tested to his limit right through this season. Wigan came up from Div 1, so this season is all about consolidating their foothold in this league, anything else is a bonus. Wigan do have Adam Lefondre. I bemoaned radio Derby several seasons back when I asked why Derby never went in for Lefondre at Rotherham who was scoring for fun and Adam Lelana at Southampton. Former Derby man Roger Davis quoted ” Nigel Clough had them both scouted and never rated them “!!! maybe I should stick to championship manager for my football management fix – what do I know.
    That season, Reading paid I think 200-300k for lefondre and Lelana 2 seasons later was sold to Liverpool for 25 million. But what do I know. That same first season for Reading, Lefondre scored 3 times over both matches against the rams and cost us 6 points. I have looked on the scoring stats for Wigan and unless I need to go to specsavers, I don’t see Lefondre on the list. So is he injured? has he lost form? has he fell down the pecking order?? maybe a Wigan fan can throw some light onto the subject, because if he’s in the starting 11, I automatically think ” oh sh*t “. He worries me, but then again, I’ve not seen how he can cope in a team that’s struggling to keep its head above water. Some star players can’t stomach the fight, whilst others who you’d think wouldn’t show teeth at any other stage of the season, suddenly realise ” hey I want to play at this division “.

    Anyway: Derby – 5 wins on the bounce and Forest at home in 8 days time. Its about momentum, its about keeping that winning run going and its about confidence. Last week, Norwich kept Derby out of that game for the first 37 minutes. The whistle really did come far too early, our tails were up, we’d found that extra gear and we were now a team wanting the spoils. The ht whistle ruined the party when we’d turned the run of play on its head and Norwich had their backs against the wall.
    the 2nd half, I felt we did do enough for all the points and although it was not the prettiest of matches, former Norwich man Bradley Johnson bagged us the winner.
    The ending was a bit nervy, but to of got our 5th straight win was deserved.
    I’ve always said that October/November is where derby come alive. Damn you 2x international breaks !! Prior to these 2x past months, I scanned the fixture list and wasn’t too worried about any of them, the only 2x that gave me a little concern was Norwich and next weeks opponents Forest.

    Derby should have more than enough to grab the spoils at 13/10 with bet365 and without going complicated, I shall be dropping onto a straight £10 win bet on that.

    The Derby team STILL isn’t the finished article according to Steve McClaren and recent news that Derby’s right sided pacey wingback Christie is out for 3 months has pushed the boss into a rethink at the back. The armband has gone to Pearce, and our best defender Shackell STILL can’t get any match time. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
    After Will Hughes’s deft little lob over the Wolves defence to set up Darren Bents over the right shoulder volley ( goal of the season folks ), Hughes is back on the radar of every club with access to 15-20 mill of loose change down the back of the sofa. He’s turned down a new contract that runs out at the end of next season, but there’s still time for Derby to get to the promised land. Not just from a selfish perspective, but also for my club, I’d like to see him have his first season in the premiership but in a Derby shirt, then maybe we’ll get 25-30 mill for him. ( Hendrick went for 10-12 mill + add ons, so Hughes has to be worth more – I also believe he’ll end up with a Liverpool shirt on his back too – it’s his dream ).
    The gaffer seems to be sticking quite routinely to almost the same starting 11, and that includes Darren Bent being the blue eyed boy spearheading the attack. Ince on one side, Russell on the other, with the likes of Blackman/Vydra and Anya kept in reserves on the bench.

    We seem to have a slightly different approach to our game under this 2nd spell under McClaren, the 1st spell, we didn’t really worry about conceding 2, because we knew we could score 3. Now, we’ve strengthened up the defence, yes – games are a lot tighter, there are far less cricket score matches, but we’re edging out games. If this tactic yields 3 points each match, we’ll take it.

    No game is a pushover in this league, but I can’t see past a Derby win come the final whistle. IF we win, we’ll have 6 straight wins on the bounce to take into the Forest game and be JUST 11 points off the top. We could in theory end up in 4th, 5th, 6th or 7th come the end of the weekends football. 11 points off the top is a damn sight better than the 23 point gap we had just 2 months back. We’re hitting form just at the right time and we need it to continue. Just like Forest beating Newcastle to lay down a marker for the rams for next week, we need to do the same to Wigan.

    I can’t see many team changes come kickoff, but as soon as I get it, I’ll post around 1 hr before kickoff.

    • Profile photo of nathanufton
      nathanufton 1 year ago

      @mr-fixit can you repost this in the main thread please. Often my browser has packed up when I’ve attempted it in the past.
      Also, regards Chapecounse: the Brazilian FA have said they HAVE to play their last league, no news yet on when/whether the copa sudamerica final will be played but athletico Medellin have stated they’ll forfeit the trophy to them. IF/WHEN the last league fixture is played, Chapocoense have said they’ll field a side full of youngsters/academy players and former Barcelona/Brazil superstar Ronaldino has openly told the Brazilian FA he’ll come out of retirement, re-register as a player and play for them for the last match. Another former Argentine international has also stated the same intent. IF/WHEN this match goes ahead, because Football in South America is everything to them, its all they have, every single country in South America WILL NOT allow Chapocoense’s opponents win that match. Thei opponents will now want to win the match either. I personally could never profit on such an awful tragedy so it is possible that all bookies could blacklist this match in the same way to avoid exploitation or essentially a pre-arranged outcome that the whole continent wants. South America and football are very unforgiving ( the Colombian own goal scorer that put Colombia out of the WC ) was murdered a few years back. Might be wise to advise the rest of the site to steer clear of that match out of respect.

    • Profile photo of chelseagirl
      chelseagirl 1 year ago

      That game was totally transformed with the Newcastle s/os. In the end Forest just got over the line after missing 2 pens.The game never really lived up to what I expected.My main bet came in however BTTS so was happy enough at the end of play.

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