TODAY I’m delighted to introduce a new tipster to the site who has an incredible ROI when it comes to betting on darts. LockupTipster, or Dave as he’s known to his friends, has been a contributor on Selectabet.net for several years, writing many articles and picking lots of winner so I’m delighted to have him on board here at MrFixitsTips.
Some of you may be familiar with @lockuptipster on twitter where he has a great reputation for his love of the BDO and PDC darts circuit.
He’s been writing previews for his blog since 2011 and has appeared in several places and platforms since, including a rare TV appearance to preview the Premier League Darts back in 2012.
LockupTipster will be checking comments and providing feedback here on the site but is happy to be contacted on twitter or by email me at [email protected]. He loves getting feedback that helps him enhance his previews so don’t be shy.
Over the last four years, LockupTipster’s darts return on investment (ROI) has gradually risen to beyond 22%. He puts that down to his perceptive nature and judgemental skills, which have improved with experience in funneling out the perceived value versus his own personal valuation of pricing games to a true 100% book of all matches.
With all the intros out of the way let’s crack on with the tips for next week’s event which starts on Sunday…
Party Poker World Grand Prix
With the World Championships in December,] we begin with the first of four majors before the BIG ONE and our first stop is in Dublin, Ireland, where defending champion Michael van Gerwen is best priced 21/10 with Boylesports to retain his crown after beating the Machine James Wade 5-3 in 2014.
First Round Draw & Draw Bracket
Michael van Gerwen (1) v Keegan Brown
Kim Huybrechts v Benito van de Pas
Michael Smith (8) v Gerwyn Price
William O’Connor v Jamie Lewis
Adrian Lewis (5) v Raymond van Barneveld
Mark Webster v Stephen Bunting
Peter Wright (4) v Dave Chisnall
Jelle Klaasen v Brendan Dolan
Gary Anderson (2) v John Henderson
Ian White v Jamie Caven
Robert Thornton (7) v Daryl Gurney
Justin Pipe v Steve Beaton
James Wade (6) v Mensur Suljovic
Andrew Gilding v Simon Whitlock
Phil Taylor (3) v Vincent van der Voort
Mervyn King v Terry Jenkins
With a tasty draw comes a unique format; double in, double out, which has caused players problems in the past.
Looking at quarter one, MVG is given an implied 63.6% chance of winning his quarter with his closest rival Michael Smith out at around 15% with Huybrechts at 10% and 22-1 and above for the rest of the group. MVG has not shown his invincible form since lifting the Matchplay back in July. With the standard of darts ever enhancing the competition is fierce.
You cannot back MVG at 4/7, as both Kim and Benito are capable, both holding victories over MVG in the last year. The interesting half of the quarter is, can Smith hop over the first hurdle? Smith was knocked out in the first round last year, frustrated with missed doubles, and takes on Gerwyn Price who made quite an impact at the Matchplay, including beating Smith 10-4 in the process. Price has not done too much since but could be the surprise of round one if you fancy an upset at 17/10 with Boylesports
Quarter two is very juicy with Lewis leading the pack at 7-2, and with second and third favourites battling one another in round one (Chisnall 4-1 – Wright 9-2) backing either of those will have one that will definitely lose in round one. With Bunting out of form he cannot be backed at 8-1, and with Klassen at 8-1, his form is too inconsistent to rely on, although the latest Players Championship Tour winner will be in high spirits but will need to pass fellow Irishman Dolan.
Van Barneveld is a prospect and clinging on to the world top 16. Raymond could really do with a good run here but has “Jackpot” Adrian Lewis to reign supremacy in round one initially. I do like Wright at 9-2 as a shade of value, as he can slow or quicken the pace up on demand. Wright is edging towards a major and if the seeding goes to play Wright will need to conquer MVG, where in the past Wright has not had luck with.
Quarter three is the quarter where you could oppose Anderson. Gary has been in patchy form on and off for a while, although to his credit, his doubles have improved a great deal. I appreciate the 11-10 on the defending World Champion, but the price is good enough to take on opposing for the likes of Thornton or White to make an impact. Both players cannot meet until the quarter finals so the 5/1 and 13/2 respectively may have mileage as a dutch bet. I do think Beaton and Pipe, although Beaton is in with a good chance, that both may struggle on the longer format.
Quarter four is where one of the finalists could come from. With Taylor and last year’s finalist James Wade among the eight players. Taylor is best 5/6 with Boylesports with Wade 7-2 with Matchplay sponsors BetVictor.
We also have Jenkins (12-1), Whitlock (14-1), King (20-1), Gilding (25-1), Van der Voort (25-1) and Suljovic (401) among the eight. Possibly the juiciest ties in round one has King and Jenkins facing off, and Jenkins, who won Saturday’s Players Championship tour event on his birthday is 17-20 with Bwin to knock off King who is 6-5 with some firms.
This quarter is hard to call but Wade knows how to get the job done here. With Taylor a target, it is difficult to look past Jenkins, who will meet Taylor if both win their openers in round two, a nice time to derail the Power. The 12-1 is tempting, and may recommend a small stake at our recommendation stage.
To Make the Final
Last to see our fancy is players to make the final odds, MVG is 1-1 to make the final and I do think from 4-7 for the quarter-final betting, he could face tough competition in the semi finals, although I am confident that when MVG gets to the last four he will be odds on to win with an opportunity to trade out on the bigger stakes.
With the likes of Lewis, Barney, Chisnall and Wright as one of the likely names to be at the fold my feeling on Wright coming through the field is the way to go.
Snakebite’s record against MVG is not favourable if they meet in the semi-final, with some tension in the past. Other names to consider is Wade at 13-2 to repeat last year’s feat with BetVictor, although Wright is a big leap from 9-2 to 10-1 with a possible trade in the semi final, although I would expect Wright versus MVG to be priced 4-11 – 11-4 in MVG’s favour.
Remember the Grand Prix toes the oche this Sunday, until the following Saturday, and the event is LIVE on Sky Sports throughout.
You will be able to read our bets daily throughout the competition on mrfixitstips.co.uk with brief reasoning for each tip.
MVG – to reach the final – 1-1 Skybet – 3pts
P Wright to win quarter two – 9-2 general – 1pt
R Thornton to win quarter three – 5-1 Skybet – 1.25pt
I White to win quarter three – 13-2 Skybet – 1pt
Staking plan – 1pt = £10 as a guide, but set your own limits and please bet responsibly.