Euro 2012, Group C, Thursday, Poznan, 5pm
IT'S been pointed out by a few people that the last eight games have featured both teams scoring.
That's a fairly remarkable stat for a major finals and it could reach in a row today.
Some of the matches just haven't looked like they'll produce goals but there is a good feel to Croatia and Italy after both played well in their openers. I can see both teams scoring and that pays 11-10 (various).
Italy performed better than expected against Spain and playing two up front was a breath of fresh air. Admittedly, one of those was Mario Balotelli who didn't do much but pick up the first caution as I predicted.
He's likely to be replaced by Antonio di Natale who netted minutes after his introduction and hopefully the Italians will pair him with Antonio Cassano. Di Natale is 13-2 at BetVictor and Paddy Power to score first and 5-2 with Paddy Power at anytime.
Croatia, my pre-tournament dark horse tips, brushed aside the Irish pretty easily and didn't have to work too hard for their goals.
Nikica Jelavic finished his chance well but was overshadowed by team-mate Mario Mandzukic who bagged a double. Mandzukic is 9-1 at Paddy Power and bet365 to score first while Everton star Jelavic is 15-2 with Coral.
Jelavic's last 27 goals for Rangers, Everton and Croatia have been with his first touch and unibet offer an industry best 17-5 that he nets at any time.
This will be much tougher for the Croats and I can see it being a draw which will probably suit Italy with a final group game against Ireland to follow. A stalemate pays 11-5 (various) while Croatia are 13-5 (Coral) and Italy 13-10 (William Hill, BetVictor, Blue Square).
Italy have only beaten Croatia once (in 1942). They have played each other five times in recent years with the Croats winning three and the Italians two.
On the basis of that stat Ladbrokes' 11-8 on Croatia draw no bet looks worth a look.
Andrea Pirlo was a class act in the Italians' opener and I noticed he is 14-1 at Ladbrokes to be named man of the match and just 7-1 with Betfred. That would be a pearler if it came up.
Recommendations
Croatia draw no bet
(5-4, unibet)
Mandzukic to score
(7-2, Paddy Power)
Di Natale to score
(5-2, Paddy Power)
Both teams to score
(11-10, various)
In December 2020 we sadly 
Anyone considering a small cheeky punt on the Dutch at 33s? I didn’t back them at the start due to their poor defence but if they beat Portugal 2 0 and Germany beat Denmark, they’ll be through to a quarter with Russia probably. Then a fresh start? Worth a tenner? Worry about Germany possbily settling for a draw in their final match against the Danes as it would guarantee them top spot and knock their fierce rivals out. It could also mean Denamrk qualify as I still think Holland will beat Portugal.
Marc if the dutch play with 1 holding player in midfield and 2 up front then 33s is not a bad shout! Good luck.
Marc only one chance of that happening my friend, no chance.
Football is a funny old game chris! You never know whats going to happen in this game!
Alex, they should have done that from the off. De Jong so never have played after the WC final as Van bommel would suffice. In the last 2 games when it wasn’t going their way, VDV and Huntelaar come off the bench. Got to go for it against Portugal now.
Chris I wouldn’t be so sure, its 33s for a reason but certainly not impossible. If they throw caution to the wind at get Huntelaar up top with RVP with Robben and Sneijder out wide, they could beat anyone by 2 goals. As I said my main concern would be Germany Denmark stalemate.
It’s just something I’ll monitor over the coming days and see what noises are coming out of the Dutch camp.
Marc, like you I fear a Germany v Denmark carve-up. The Germans know a draw will KO Holland and they’d be delighted by that. However, a draw could open the door for Portugal to win the group. When Group A is finished and we see who is first and second that may give us a better idea about what the Germans want from the last game. Probably be looking to avoid Russia.
Paul, agree mate. But just to point out a draw would be enough for Germany to win the group as it would leave them on 7 pts and Portugal could only reach 6 pts.
As the games are played at the same time, if word gets through that Holland are up against Portugal, it could be that Germany and Denamark take it easy so I will certainly look at covering the draw in that one.
Marc, of course they will. I think the draw has every chance.
Paul Pirlo cut to 7/1 with Ladbrokes online. Any chance someone can check the shop price at Ladbrokes as im sure they do man of the match and it may still be 14/1. They dont normally change the prices in the shop ie Fabregas the other day was cut to 5/1 from 8/1 for first goal but was still 8/1 in the shop.
Chris, just back from a wee game of golf. Won’t get near a shop till after 4pm I’m afraid but if anyone else can check that would be great. I think the 14-1 was too big so I’d be surprised if shops were still offering that.
Woods,Donald J Rose.
Anyone fancy this… Di Natale and Iniesta to score at anytime in their matches? £10 pays £103… Iniesta had a good first game and if he does the same tonight can cause the Irish a few problems…
Nick, I’ve tipped both so good luck.
Think 11/10 for btts is a great price in this game. Got it in my treble with germany from last night and spain -1.
Was on talksport a wee while ago they fancy balotelli and cassana to start.
Joe, best thing for everyone is don’t be til teams are revealed.
cant pick a winner here think it will end all square
Balotelli and Jelavac to net anytime double 15/2william hill
***jelavic*** cant ignore mandzukic 17/2 to break deadlock bet 365 wee 5er the necessary course of action
Di Natale not starting? What more did he need to do to get on the pitch? Put my wincast double of him and iniesta in doubt as well….
1:1 6/1 with bet at home and both teams to score my bets
note to self – dont use betvictor again!!! just tried to place last 50p in acc on pirlo nxt gl and when italy got freekick they suspended bettin, poor show ya shower ae kents!!!
There it is. 1-1 di natlie on the pitch now.
BTTS and Mandzukic up in one swift blow! Lovely
3 outta 4 paul and di natale never started so a non runner really – nice goin. Got btts up so waitin on spain -1 for my treble and i think u tipped that.
Joe, just back in from the boys’ footie, so listening to bits and pieces but that’s a good result. Happy with that and a few quid to play with tonight.
Paul well done mate good result today. Remember look me out a couple of winners for me tomorrow as the it’s the long awaited pay day!!!!
Chris, a bit tougher tomorrow. Edging towards England and France.