This tip has expired. Please check our free horse racing tips section of the website to find the most up to date.
After a poor run it was nice to finally get a winner, with Beakstown winning nicely at Ayr at odds of 9/4 when tipped up at 4/1. Today's racing looks quality on both codes, so whatever you're into there is something for everyone.
I tipped up SEBASTOPOL when he was a faller at Kempton three runs ago, where he had the race at his mercy. He was then pulled up on his next start, over a trip which probably isn't ideal, and then won on his most recent start, winning in taking fashion, and producing a decent level of form at the same time.
There is a lot of talent with this horse, it's unfortunate that hasn't always gone to plan. He has bumped into a Class 1 level horse in Third Time Lucki, then fell, and now it looks like he is finally finding his feet. He has been raised 8lbs for his recent win, but that shouldn't be enough to stop his progress. This is a tougher race than what he competed in last time, but I think he has more to give, and is probably a horse who could reach the low 150s in the near future.
The runner-up of his most recent win has won since, and won in good fashion, winning a nice little race at Ascot, so the fact that the selection beat him by 6.5L and carrying 5lbs more than him proves he is a very good horse. The heavy weight he has to carry isn't ideal, but he proved lto that he can do that.
The quick turnaround for WEST CORK isn't incredibly inspiring, but sometimes you've got to believe what the trainer says, and Dan Skelton seems to think he has him spot on for this. He gave a quote to The Racing Post: “He ran well at Cheltenham since when I've been surprised how happy I've been with him as I thought he might be a bit flat. I was only going to run him here if he was 100 per cent. It's hard to win two big handicaps in a year but I'm happy with him”. That is enough for me to think he is going to be fine for this, despite running at Cheltenham, and if he is anywhere near that form of that run, he is going to be right there at the finish.
Milkwood won this race last year, but is 8lbs higher this time around, which frankly makes him very easy to oppose in my opinion. He will be primed for this, but off top weight, giving a lot of weight away on the back of a 181 day absence, it's a tough ask. However, when he did win this race last year, he came straight from the County Hurdle, where he finished 3rd, which is the same route that West Cork is taking, apart from the fact he finished 4th. I think the form of that race at Cheltenham is up there for the best form line, and on the weights, he beats a lot of these on collateral form.
I think the main danger is Anna Bunina who finished 2nd in this race last year, and gets into this off a very low weight for a shrewd outfit of John McConnell. I might even play a forecast.
This is a race where the official ratings don't really seem to matter, as a lot of them seem higher than what they probably should be. Do Your Job is the favourite, but I'm not convinced by his form, despite the fact his trainer seems very bullish. I tipped him up on chase debut at Warwick earlier in the season where he was fortunate to get the win, with Edwardstone being brought down by For Pleasure, and even then he struggled to brush aside a now 126 rated chaser. Since then he has been runner-up to Edwardstone and Third Time Lucki, beaten easily on both occasions, before winning at Newcastle last time out, which in fairness was a good effort, but that was a handicap and this is off level weights.
I'm giving a chance to Il Ridoto, who will appreciate the return to a sounder surface. He was getting the 4yo allowances when he won in November at Newbury, but the form has worked out well since. The 2nd and 3rd have both won since, and the fourth was in the midst of running a big race before nearly falling at the last. Since then, this horse has been racing on soft ground, where he ran well to finish 4.25L behind War Lord, who finished 4th in the Arkle, and has already beaten Minella Drama who races in this today. This step up in trip looks like it could suit based on his Newbury run where he ran on strongly.
For the rest of the field, Minella Drama is the class horse in the race on form. He is a Graded horse, but has been found wanting on a couple of occasions when he's raced against some decent opposition. He carries a penalty, and his jumping can be sketchy. Kiltealy Briggs doesn't look good enough to win this in my opinion (knowing my luck, he'll hose up now I've said that), and Jacamar is a dark horse for this. I'm a big fan of his, but his jumping can also let him down, he has ability, but everything has to click for him to win.
This race has 23 runners, so I won't be delving too deep into it, other than my selections in the race.
KITTY'S LIGHT is the favorite for this, which I'm surprised, but not surprised at the same time. I thought I'd get a little bigger odds than the 6/1 floating around, but it doesn't surprise me that punters have latched onto the same thought process as me. I think he ran an absolute blinder to finish 2nd to Cap Du Nord at Kempton in the Coral Trophy. He was giving away 16lbs that day to the winner, but stuck on very strongly, after being finessed into the race by Brian Hughes. He doesn't really have the gears to win a race like that over 3m at a speed track like Kempton, and has always looked like a true stayer, who would relish today's kind of trip. She would've won at Sandown last year over 3m 5f in the bet365 Gold Cup, if it wasn't for Enrilo, who hung violently and bumped Kitty's Light all over the place, which lost all of her momentum. He powered up the Sandown hill that day, and with an extra 3f to run over today, I can't see how he won't stay, and on ground which he really enjoys.
I'll also being a small EW bet on COOL MIX, who ran a blinder to finish 5th in this race last year. He is now a 10yo, but has still been running well this year, and it's quite apparent he needs a true test of stamina, which he hasn't had so far. He finished runner-up at Musselburgh last time out over 2m 6f, which would have been a stepping stone for this race. Alan Doyle takes off a very handy 7lbs, and for one of the horses at the bottom of the weights, he needs to be respected.