Golf: Ace’s Safeway Open Tips


THE first tournament of this season’s PGA Tour is the Safeway Open at the Silverado Resort (North Course) in California with three of the top 25 World Tour ranking players – Phil Mickelson, Paul Casey and Matt Kuchar – taking part.

GIR and scrambling could be important on this course with maybe driving accuracy also worth a look.

Standout for this week has to be Paul Casey. The finish he had to the last season in the Fed-Ex plus his stats all add up to a perfect pick.

He has a GIR stat of 70.80%, scrambling 61.44% and driving accuracy 64.67%. Casey has never played Silverado but not sure that is going to be a problem.

Last year Emiliano Grillo won the Open here at the second extra hole. It was his first start on the PGA Tour after winning the Tour Championship two weeks previously.

He has had a superb first season, finishing 11th in the Fed-Ex standings. In his third round last year he hit a bogey-free seven-under 65 which included five birdies and an eagle. With stats of GIR 68.52%, scrambling 55.10% and driving accuracy 66.93% he looks a good fit for another finish here.

Runner-up last year Kevin Na had a brilliant autumn and followed that result with a T2 and T3 in his next two tournaments. He won the Shriners in 2011 and was expected to progress but hasn’t won since then. He also has good stats with GIR 66.73%, scrambling 58.53% and driving accuracy 65.30% and I am expecting him to be fighting it out on Sunday.

I wasn’t going to pick a fourth player but every time I look at the field my eyes are drawn to Jon Rahm. This is his first official start as a full PGA Tour player although he had a T2 at the RBC Canadian Open and a third in the Quicken Loans National last season. His stats are also good with GIR of 68.15%, scrambling 59.30% and DA 61.19% so will have a small wager on him.

Recommended Bets

2pts win Paul Casey (Ladbrokes, 12-1)
1.5pts ew Emiliano Grillo (Betfair, 22-1)
1.5pts ew Kevin Na (Betfred, 33-1)
1pts ew Jon Rahm (Coral, 25-1)

Ace Venturer

  1. Profile photo of sam c
    sam c 2 weeks ago

    The price of Bryson DeChambeau is really standing out to me, Bet365 have him at 90/1 where a lot of other bookies have him at 66/1 and BetVictor are as low as 50/1! Has shown he has a lot of talent with T21 and T15 in the Masters and US Open and is coming here with a PGA Tour card from winning in the WEB Tour last month. Seems a decent value bet!

  2. Profile photo of thegreek82
    thegreek82 2 weeks ago

    Paul Casey to win at 12/1 is a horrendous piece of value. He has won once in 11 years on the PGA Tour.

  3. Profile photo of aceventurer
    aceventurer 2 weeks ago

    Thegreek82. I agree Casey is short but when you look at his form over the last couple of months, plus the fact that it’s not the greatest field, I think he will be fighting it out on Sunday.

  4. Profile photo of thegreek82
    thegreek82 2 weeks ago

    He can win all he likes at 12/1.
    Can’t see it happening though. Has a knack of finding at least one better than him and never played the course.
    Usually putts even worse on poa too.

    Good luck though.

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