GOLF: ACE VENTURER’S US OPEN TIPS

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usmastersgolf

GOOD luck to you all this week on picking your US Open winner. It’s a really tough one to call due lack of form on the course but here’s my picks – and I wouldn’t put anyone off waiting to see how the first round pans out before hitting the outrights.

Chambers Bay Golf Club is the problem – beautiful as it looks. The course nestles on the shores of the Puget Sound, near Seattle, in Washington State.

Designed by Robert Trent Jones Jnr and completed in 2007 it is based on Scottish links courses and boasts just one tree – that’s tree not tees. It’s got around 90 tees, believe it or not, allowing all different lengths of holes to be played.

Some days holes will be tough par fours and on other days they’ll be easier par fives – so if nothing else it promises to be interesting.

In 2010 the US Amateur Championship became the first big tournament to be held there and in the last round there were more rounds in the 90s than there were under par – that’s usually how it is when I play with Mr Fixit.

Chambers Bay is going to suit players with lots of experience on links courses, someone such as Phil Mickelson. He had a good Masters, finishing T2, and a T4 in the Wells Fargo but missed the cut in between at the Players and then a bad two final rounds at the Memorial.

However, he first a final-round 65 to finish to finish joint third at the St Jude Classic on Sunday so maybe his game is coming together in the Mick of time.

His short game could be the deciding factor on course with rock-hard fairways and undulating greens. With two runner-up spots and a win in The Open he obviously loves links golf and he’s one of my picks this week.

He’s 45 today and this could be his final chance to win the tournament he’s been runner-up in six times to complete a career Grand Slam.

Justin Rose was 12th last year and became just the fourth US Open winner since 1991 to finish higher than 30th when defending his title.

He has been steadily building up his form since his T2 in the Masters and although he missed the cut in the Players Championship he, has won the Zurich and a T2 in the Memorial.

I backed him a couple of weeks ago and there is nothing to suggest to me he won’t be fighting it out on the Sunday afternoon. Forgetting the Players he has an average in his last three tournaments of 77.38% in driving accuracy and 72.22% in GIR and strokes gained:putting of 1.01.

I backed Dustin Johnson at the same time as Rose and although he pulled out through illness last week I still think he’s in with a chance at Chambers Bay. As I said last week Dustin’s going to rip some course apart, maybe not here, but he will be challenging on Sunday as long as he’s fit to play and the weather’s not too bad. If it blows forget it.

When I look at the stats Henrik Stenson stands out. He is T2 in GIR (72.2%), 11th in driving accuracy (70.36%) and 15th in strokes gained:putting. He had a great run from the middle of December with four top-five finishes and two top 20 but at the Wells Fargo finished a disappointing T58. If he can get back to his earlier form he could be in with a chance.

Sergio Garcia finished a good T2nd in the Open last year to Rory McIlroy and has a quite a good links pedigree. He’s not had the greatest of seasons but a T2 at The Players last month hopefully signals a return to some kind of form. His driving accuracy has improved on average over the past two outings and his GIR in the Players was a very good 73%. Worth a small wager.

Last year Rickie Fowler targeted the Majors and it certainly paid off for him with two seconds, a third and a fifth. This season he’s had a T12 in The Masters and following his win in the “fifth Major”, The Players, would love to land his first Major on the west coast just north of his home state.

He’s come close a couple of times in The Open and is getting used to links golf so he is my final pick.

Recommended Bets

Phil Mickelson 2pts ew (18-1, 888sport, Betfred)
Justin Rose 1.5pts ew (20-1, Paddy Power)
Dustin Johnson 1pt ew (22-1, Betfred, bet365)
Henrik Stenson 1pt ew (25-1, Ladbrokes)
Sergio Garcia 1pt ew (40-1, 888sport)
Rickie Fowler 1pt ew (22-1, William Hill, bet365)

Ace Venturer

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14 Comments
  1. Colin 2 years ago

    What are the chances of Billy Horschel who was tipped last weekend and finished with a 65 for a T8 place. He is a decent price at 50/1 this week

    • Ace Venturer 2 years ago

      Colin,he’s 55s in PaddyPower. I’ve noticed he’s being talked up a bit in America. You never know a small each way wager might get you a return especially as your getting six places…

  2. wax 2 years ago

    Mickleson,Matsuyama and Horschel for me this week.

  3. nalazus 2 years ago

    Raaljaca,have you a top 10 player picked out for the Open mate?

  4. Nearestthepin 2 years ago

    Ace love the tips, have done well out of them all month.

    What’s your thoughts on Franchesco Molinari at 100-1 ew or even to finish in the top 20 at 5/2. I have a free bonus bet and want to get it on something decent

    • Ace Venturer 2 years ago

      Nearesthepint I like Monlinari, tipped him for the BMW PGA at Wentworth couple of weeks ago, which he blew big time on the last day. He’s been playing well and a top 20 isn’t a bad bet.

  5. leecunliffe 2 years ago

    3 for me this week was close last week with Mickelson but cash was not coming as did him win only

    This week Bubba Watson 40/1
    Course needs a big hitter which bubba is am not picking him for consistency as he could easily miss the cut as he could win so here’s hoping he is hot this week.

    Jordan speith 9/1 this course has big greens big fairways and could suit mr speith hopefully he can recapture his augusta form

    Brandt snedeker 50/1 and outside pick but after a nightmare 2014 he has looked back to his best this year, one win and 2 top 10 finishes this year

  6. WasClueless 2 years ago

    Poor odds but my bet is on Rory … this course is hard … but they wont set it up for embarrassing high scores …

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 2 years ago

      WasClueless, it’s already set up for high scores – that’s the way the US PGA like it. Will be worse if the wind blows but forecast isn’t too bad. For me it’s not a Rory-type course although he’s still the best in the business.

  7. Sean567 2 years ago

    Stenson fowler matsuyama for me
    Looks off to a decent start

  8. John 2 years ago

    Ace Venturer – Now that the first round is out of the way can you now predict who you think might do well?

    Is it still the same predictions – Mickelson, Rose, Johnson, Stenson, Garcia and Fowler – or has anybody else come through that looks like a good bet?

    Can you still do Top 10/Top 20 bets even though the US Open is in play?

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 2 years ago

      John, I don’t know if Ace is about but look at oddschecker or bestrescue to see who’s doing what. As far as his tips go he’ll be delighted having tipped the joint leaders Johnson and Stenson.

  9. Wolverine 2 years ago

    Posted on the other Golf Thread that can no longer be seen.

    US Open Lucky 15

    All to miss the cut

    Tiger Woods
    Sergio Garcia
    Adam Scott
    Bubba Watson

    Odds are 68.76

    A 40p Lucky 15 (£6 total stake) returns £93.48

    Good luck, fingers crossed for some terrible golf lol.

    To Win,

    Francesco Molinari e/w @ 80/1

    He hits a ton of greens in regulation and is No.1 on tour for driving accuracy.

  10. Donald Priest 2 years ago

    Daft double
    Big DJ
    Whiteford
    Can’t find Whiteford results anywhere

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