Feb 27: English Betting Preview

MRF_Vardy

AT the start of the season Leicester v Norwich would have been regarded as a relegation six-pointer.

It’s still a huge game today but the teams need the points for different reasons. Claudio Ranieri’s Leicester simply won’t go away and as we head into March they remain top of the Premier League.

Arsenal’s last-gasp winner in their previous outing was a blow but the Foxes will expect to bounce back against a Norwich side only above the bottom three on goal difference.

Alex Neil’s men can’t stop conceding goals – 18 in six games – and the likes of James Vardy and Riyad Mahrez must be rubbing their hands at the prospect of facing one of the Premier League’s leakiest defence.

The Canaries have conceded 50 goals and Leicester should be looking to net twice in a home win. They are a best 11-20 at boylesports and a better price of 8-13 to score 2+ goals.

In fact the way Norwich defend we can be looking at 3+ at 15-8 with McBookie. Neil’s men have lost their last three away to Villa (2-0), Spurs (3-0) and Bournemouth (3-0) but they usually create chances.

Stoke are possibly the league’s most inconsistent side this season but they were good at Bournemouth last week, winning 3-1. Villa are their visitors today and it’s difficult to see past a home win at 7-10 with sportingbet.

After a dip West Ham have started to purr again with nine goals in three games. Back them at 5-6 with McBookie and consider Dmitri Payet to score at 2-1 with bet365.

West Brom were so bad against Reading last week that skipper James Brunt was hit by a coin thrown by one of his own fans. Not sure fans will be any happier today when Crystal Palace visit.

Alan Pardew’s side ended a barren run with victory at Spurs and can follow up with another here at a nice price of 19-10 with McBookie.

Biggest game of the day is Southampton v Chelsea and this time Fraser Forster can be beaten – with a little help from ex-Celtic team-mate Victor Wanyama.

Saints haven’t conceded in 524 minutes but will miss banned midfield enforced Wanyama and a Chelsea side in better form can at least score. That pays 4-11 at Coral while the Blues are 1-2 at Skybet not to lose.

In the Championship I like Burnley at derby rivals Bolton and Reading at basement boys Charlton.

Awayday experts Millwall (7-5, Betfred) look best bets in League One at Doncaster and League Two leaders Northampton are a biggest 10-11 with William Hill as they go for 11 wins in a row at Hartlepool.

Bets to Consider

Leicester to score 3+

Crystal Palace

Payet to score

Reading

Millwall

 

6 Comments
  1. Profile photo of harrybaines
    harrybaines 9 months ago

    Is Leicester asian handicap -1 worth a shout at evens?

    • Profile photo of harrybaines
      harrybaines 9 months ago

      Leicester win and over 2.5 goals @2.30 seems like a great price. Debating on which one is less risky,hmm

      • Profile photo of gio123
        gio123 9 months ago

        if the choice would be between those 2, then I would choose -1 handicap ) there are good chances of
        winning 2-0 for leicester

  2. Profile photo of nathanufton
    nathanufton 9 months ago

    So the Hull/Sheff Wed ended up goaless, whilst I’m pleased I called it right, I still feel a little saddened that a few people plumped for a Hull win. Sheff Wed are a stubborn side, much improved and Hull have stuttered a bit. From a Derby fans perspective, this is the perfect result for us. Sheff Wed hot on our heels and Hull at the top of the league extending their lead by 1 point and not 3. A couple more matches like that in the top 6 and the league is gonna tighten up more than my dads wallet.

    About 5 games back, I was seriously worried about Derby’s form, now our last 5 reads WWLDD ( most recent matches shown first ) – it seems that we’ve turned the corner of our wretched 7 week run. Nobody realises this but apart from our abysmal showing against Burnley, we were actually playing some very good football, but we just had 0 luck. Sometimes you need that just to get you over the line. The stand in boss is saying we playd better against Blackburn in the 1 nil win than we did against Brentford who we beat 3-1. Bizarre. Results really do do the talking. We’re starting to carve out those defence splitting passes and with a few key players still not quite there in terms of fitness/match sharpness ( thorne and Bryson ), the stand-in gaffer is saving some of the match-winners to throw on for the last 30 mins. Its a tactic I like.

    Whilst Derby have seemingly turned the corner on their form, Wolves form has been shocking. Believe me, when you’re in that kind of rut, you really cannot see any light at the end of the tunnel – I know because we’ve been through it ourselves recently.

    This Hull/Sheff Wed draw will give Derby a psychological boost, we win, we gain points on the top of the league. We draw, we stay where we are. We lose and we drop 1 point on Hull and Sheff Wed are 1 point closer to us.

    Home advantage usually has a very large say in the results, but Derby’s away form is the best in the league. 27 points on the road this season – the same as Hull but they’ve played 1 more away game than us. with a 48% away win percentage its about double the league average of 25% or so.
    Wolves home form is about 18th in the league.
    We’ve still not rolled anyone over yet, maybe we won’t this season but the early televised kickoff with top vs sixth already played will give us a chance to put some pressure on the likes of Hull and Borough.

    3 weeks back and I’d of been satisfied pre-match with a point in this game but I’m now sticking my neck out and think with the wind on our backs, the mini-momentum we’ve gained with 2 back to back wins, we should have more than enough to take all the spoils against a team that’s severely lacking in results and confidence.

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 9 months ago

      nathanaufton, cheers. I thought Hull might have edged it but went with the double chance.
      Derby are one of my aways simply because Wolves are so bad just now.

      • Profile photo of nathanufton
        nathanufton 9 months ago

        I agree, the Wolves form is so bad, it jumps out at you. My expectation is based about 65% on the fact that Wolves are awful and 35% that Derby have 2 back to back wins, a gilt edged chance to close that gap to the top and not so far off on the horizon we have Notts Forest rolling into town. Its a great time for us to grab hold of matches by the scruff of the neck and put down some solid form before that match comes along. 2 back to back away wins is what we could be taking into the next match at the Ipro against Huddersfield. The key to a potential 4 win streak is this Wolves match. I know Hudderfield are unpredictable, but I’m thinking that it may be one of those games that we have to win ugly. Why? 2 away games follow – QPR, then Rotherham. Qpr are similar to Hudderfield and Rotherham are in a scrap for their lives – then we have Forest at home.
        This Wolves match is a big match for us and if we can get a good result and back that up against Hudderfield, Derby could be within striking distance of the top spot sometime between the QPR game and the visit of Forest.

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