Darts: LockupTipster’s Premier League Week 5 Tips

MRF_LockupDarts

THE premier league this week comes from Exeter on the eve of the UK Open, which toes the oche the very next day a modest distance away in Minehead Somerset.

A quick recap on last week; we saw it all, we saw treble 20 galore with a massive forty on the night. Also – MICHAEL VAN GERWEN smashed the world record televised average with a stunning new standard of 123.40 as he stormed to a 7-1 win over Michael Smith. Van Gerwen powered past Phil Taylor’s previous best of 118.66, set against Kevin Painter at the 2010 UK Open, with an unplayable performance to delight a capacity crowd in Aberdeen.

The Dutchman fired in legs of 11, 12, 11 and 12 darts to open up a four-leg lead in just over four minutes, before hitting back-to-back ten-dart finishes pushing his average above 135 in-running.

Taylor himself posted a 115.25 average edging past Dave Chisnall in a superb display which saw thirteen maximums in the match and looks to keep this run going against young gun Adrian Lewis in this weeks opener

Order of play

  • 10/11 Taylor Vs Lewis 5/2 (Draw 4/1) – Taylor leads 50-15
  • 5/4 Chisnall Vs Wade 15/8 (Draw 19/5) – Wade leads 9-6
  • 28/5 Thornton Vs Anderson 7/19 (Draw 11/2) – Anderson leads 13-11
  • 11/2 Wright Vs MVG 3/8 (Draw 11/2) Van Gerwen leads 30-8
  • 2/1 Smith Vs Barneveld 13/8 (Draw 19/5) – Barneveld leads 6-4
  • 10/11 Taylor Vs Lewis 5/2 (Draw 4/1) – Taylor leads 50-15

Taylor has been looking good since his defeat on the opening night and fired in a 115.25 average over Dave Chisnall last week in a close affair. His opponent is his junior protégé Adrian Lewis, where both Stoke players has endured great battles over the years and this could be another to kick off the Exeter crowd this week.

Taylor is the odds on favourite and will be throwing first, aware that Jackpot has had his best start in years with this campaign. Phil stopped the rot of four straight defeats, with three of them in UK Open qualifiers in February; with the last time the pair met on TV went to a final leg decider back at the European Championships in late October.

Phil has shown that he is getting somewhere back to his A game and will depend on which Lewis does turn up. With a great rehearsal before the UK Open, expect both to be powered up for this game as a win for either will assist their charge towards solidifying a top four as the campaign progresses. Bookmakers were 5/6 on Taylor on three or more maximums last week and have carefully covered this offering a derisory 1/2 with Paddy Power. Jackpot is just 5/6 to front the maximum tally but has netted just twelve averaging three a game, so minefield territory based on the average.

The same bookie just mentioned are on Taylor at 5/6 for a 102.51 or better average, where he has passed this on two occasions. Paddy goes the same price on a Lewis 95 + checkout and head the price at 6/5 for the game to go the distance! Paddy also bet 5/6 on a 99.50 three dart average.

5/4 Chisnall Vs Wade 15/8 (Draw 19/5)

Wade leads 9-6

Stoke’s own Chisnall will battle James Wade in the second game where Wadey leads the head to head marginally 9-6. Their most recent meeting was in the Masters event at the end of January, where Chizzy won this 11-6 in the semi-final. Chisnall could do with the points. The machine has also gone sideways losing the last three. Chisnall without a win this the opening night could make this a tense game.

Wade has been better on the maximums in recent times with nine, but hit five in one game, so three in the other four games. Chisnall to win by two or more maximums is 10/11 with BetVictor and this is worth taking one more time. A bet we do like is Chisnall to win but both players to win four legs with Hills 12/5. You could take a cover with Wade on the same bet and hope there is no draw and both win four legs.

28/5 Thornton Vs Anderson 7/19 (Draw 11/2)

Anderson leads 13-11

A battle of the Scots between Anderson and Thornton is next up where both players need to turn their forms around. Both players netted points last week and this week will be even more vital as both look to keep up the pace on their opponents around them.

Anderson is the red hot favourite despite Thornton throwing first. Compilers have lost all confidence in the former UK Open and World Grand Prix champion since his loss to Chisnall from a near un-losable position, to be whitewashed the following week. Since his weeks absence back in week two Thornton blew the chance of pocketing a point from his game versus Barney, but reaped the reward last week at the hands of Peter Wright.

Looking at the handicaps, Thornton should not be written off, and with a +3.5 leg headstart at 3/4 with Betfred is a little disrespectful for Robert, with a lot of work for Anderson to win 7-3 or better. Thornton was considered on the maximum markets but the jerky throw breed little confidence at 4/6 with Bet365 on the basis the Thorn has netted just two all campaign.

11/2 Wright Vs MVG 3/8 (Draw 11/2)

Van Gerwen leads 30-8

Snakebite takes on MVG in what could be a controversial affair after past matches has receipted in some jibes and believe that Wright will go at a pace he will feel most comfortable with. MVG netted the world record average last week with an incredible 123.40. Since the 2014 World Championship meeting the pair have met sixteen times in total, where MVG has been beaten just twice since. The two loses was on a pro-tour event and a narrow loss at the Japan Masters. With three meetings in the Premier League all three have gone the distance it is 6/4 with Bet365 the fourth meeting sees all twelve legs played out. Some firms are 5/6 on the over/under 10.5 leg market.

MVG is 8/11 to win 7-4 or better and 5/4 to win 7-3 or better. Although looking at the form, MVG must not be opposed on this, and one market we do view as a good even money poke is MVG to win the match and score the most maximums with the Skybet special market.

2/1 Smith Vs Barneveld 13/8 (Draw 19/5)

Barneveld leads 6-4

Bullyboy will play his sixth game this week and one point on the board really needs a win without fail this week. In the way stopping him is five-time World Champion Barney, who is the 13/8 favourite. Smith has found life hard in the Premier League and wish the spirit of last week is maintained despite the thrashing by world class MVG. The pair have met twice in 2016, once at the World Championship where Barney edged it in a nine-set thriller, only for weeks later Smith reclaiming that loss at the masters 10-7.

This game could go either way, but a win Smith needs will determine his fete after this week’s action with a tricky way to call this in a betting sense.

Recommendations

  • Taylor to beat Lewis & both to win 4 legs – 11/5 William Hill – 1pt
  • Chisnall -1 180 Vs Wade – 10/11 BetVictor 2.5 pts
  • Thornton +3.5 legs – 3/4 Betfair
  • MVG to beat Wright and hit most 180s – 1/1 Skybet 2pts
8 Comments
  1. Profile photo of bullseye
    bullseye 9 months ago

    Singles:

    Wright vs Van Gerwen – Van Gerwen over 4.5 180’s 6/5 **NAP**

    Taylor vs Lewis – over 6.5 total 180’s 10/11 **NB**

    Taylor vs Lewis – highest checkout score over 120.5 5/6

    Thornton vs Anderson – double result Anderson (leading after 6 legs and to win) 8/11

    Double:

    Taylor vs Lewis – over 10.5 total legs
    Chisnall vs Wade – over 10.5 total legs

    11/10

    Van Gerwn has hit five or more 180’s twice from four weeks in this year’s PL. He hit four against Smith last week in the 7-1 win but shoud get more opportunities against Wright who’s expected to win more legs than Smith did.

    Taylor and Lewis’ total 180 count has gone over the target line of 6.5 on three occasions in this campaign. In week four they totalled 11, in week three they totalled eight and week two they totalled seven.

    Highest checkout over 120.5 can be done with a minimum of one dart at treble. Lewis and Taylor are both excellent at finishing, last week they took out a 142 and a 126 respectively.

    Prices with Bet365

    Good luck all

  2. Profile photo of jacksonator
    jacksonator 9 months ago

    FYI the line on the Talor / Lewis checkout was 118.5 I think on Ladbrokes

    • Profile photo of bullseye
      bullseye 9 months ago

      Cheers for the heads up @jacksonator I really need to open an account with ladbrokes. Bet365‘s been my home for so long due to withdrawls being available in my bank by 13:00 the next day that I’m missing out on certain things. 365 isn’t really the best for darts at times.

      • Profile photo of jacksonator
        jacksonator 9 months ago

        I know what you mean, I used to use bet365 solely really – in my opinion the app is the best and easiest to use, great in play etc and so easy to use.

        However, as I have started betting more and more I have now got accounts with most bookies and try to take the best odds, it may not seem a lot but if you can get 5/4 instead of 11/10 then if you bet hundreds of pounds over a year or so the difference really mounts up. Also with things like totals and points spreads, using different bookies can also help get better totals for the same odds. Good luck tonight on you bets

  3. Profile photo of punterpounder
    punterpounder 9 months ago

    on mvg Anderson and barney

    treble odds 2.46/1 @bet365

  4. Profile photo of weebanger
    weebanger 9 months ago

    MVG most 180s and win 1/1
    Anderson most 180s and win 6/5
    3.2/1 (skybet)

    Taylor V Lewis highest checkout over 118.5 paddy power 5/6

  5. Profile photo of bullseye
    bullseye 9 months ago

    Singles:

    Wright vs Van Gerwen – Van Gerwen over 4.5 180’s 6/5 **NAP** LOST

    Taylor vs Lewis – over 6.5 total 180’s 10/11 **NB** LOST

    Taylor vs Lewis – highest checkout score over 120.5 5/6 LOST

    Thornton vs Anderson – double result Anderson (leading after 6 legs and to win) 8/11 LOST

    Double:

    Taylor vs Lewis – over 10.5 total legs
    Chisnall vs Wade – over 10.5 total legs

    11/10 LOST

    Absolutely awful evening of betting, just gave away money to the bookies :( Unfortunately it was the sh*t Lewis that turned up tonight, not even one maximum and a checkout pecentage of just 14% which effectively downed three bets. Narrowly just missed the NAP by one 180 for MVG and Anderson started poorly allowing Thornton to race 3-0 ahead to kill of the double result bet. I think I need to reavaluate my betting on the PL because the results from week to week appear almost like a lottery and it is becoming very clear that there is no correlation between stats and how things eventually pan out on the night.

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