Darts: Lockuptipster’s Premier League Darts Week 3 Tips

MRF_LockupDarts

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PREMIER League Darts is already at week 3 and the tables are already beginning to draw a picture with Michael Smith with zip points after three games. No wonder Bookies are all over this at 1/4.

I feel the compilers are a little unfair on Robert Thornton at just 3/10 for relegation at month 9. This is partially around the tonking he suffered to the hands of Dave Chisnall after his unlikely loss from 9-1 down to lose 10-9 the weekend before.

Thornton was absent last weekend with the flu and I saw on Twitter that some comments revolved around him not living the week before down and shying off. Well Thornton fans, at the time of writing he will be back on Thursday and after missing the opening European Tour event last weekend suggests to the contrary of online comments.

This week fixtures:

  • Peter Wright Vs James Wade – 10/9 – 15/4 – 15/8
  • Dave Chisnall Vs Michael Smith – 10/11 – 4/1 – 5/2
  • Phil Taylor Vs Gary Anderson – 6/4 – 18/5 – 7/5
  • Michael van Gerwen Vs Adrian Lewis – 5/8 – 9/2 – 7/2
  • Robert Thornton Vs Raymond van Barneveld – 3/1 – 4/1 – 4/5

With the usual format you are being accustomed to we have identified key stats we deem as relevant and will suggest recommendations on the most likely outcomes in our considered expertise

Peter Wright Vs James Wade – 10/9 – 15/4 – 15/8

James leads 13-5 on the head to head

With just one Premier League meeting, where James reigned supreme, the pair have endured a trade in victories in the last five off the back of eight defeats to the Machine. Wright has trimmed into 11/10 after opening at 23/20 earlier this week. Until last week I was growing in confidence with Snakebite until last week discovering Peter had changed his darts AGAIN!

Those in the know listening on the ground know Wright has changed his darts more in a year than players do in a decade. The darts Wright was throwing last week was a downgrade based on the prior performances I had witnessed.

James on the other hand has been throwing consistently well, but not as well as he would like. Last weekend he suffered a big defeat at the European Tour and hopefully will not bode too much on Thursdays performance, as James is a consummate professional on the oche!

I did like the look of Wright to hold his throw and break the Wade throw to win the game. However, I have not been able to determine whether Wright has tweaked his darts, which is an issue from my decision making. I had considered Wright on the most 180s’ but is well short at just 8/15 in places. James has been stocking up with his maximums lately although his throw is less than fluent hitting the lipstick.

At the Wright price for most 180s is a mug price to consider, but Wade is as tall as 4/6 with a +1.5 maximum head start. This again would need Wade to be beaten by just one and have no confidence in this. However Wright has been throwing well and expect this to go a long way into the game and it is a shame Hills have dropped their match result and both to win four legs as I would be confident in applying wright and would have liked the tastier price on offer.

I think Wright can avoid defeat and will pair up with a Anderson similar bet not to lose!

Dave Chisnall Vs Michael Smith – 10/11 – 4/1 – 5/2

Dave leads 6-5 on the head to head

Dave Chisnall to the punters, well those with their eyes open, is a marmite situation – you love his 180’s but hate when he falls apart and at 10/11 to win against a Michael Smith who needs something from this match in some opinions is that Chisnall is generous at this price.

With no Premier League head to head to form any opinion on punters looking to pile in on Chizzy may not be aware that the St Helens Chizzy has never beaten bullyboy on the TV/crowd stage. Smith has reigned supreme twice at the grand slam both in 2013 and 2015 as well as a European Tour event. In some opinions of stats Smith surely has the edge?

Bullyboy performed competently at the weekend tour event, although he relied on his opponent missing doubles. Smith is still a little raw to this premier league format but can rattle the maximums in and would be a good 2/1 contender with Betfred as the match with the most maximums.

The 4/1 does stand out for some reason on the basis that Smith needs at least a point from. With this in mind, the percentage average of maximums over the legs possible does not quite make the overall line of eight or fewer maximums a bad bet. Smith has found it difficult to adapt and Chisnall does turn it on when he wants and the 17/20 from Boylesports for less than eight maximums is worth a small play.

Phil Taylor Vs Gary Anderson – 6/4 – 18/5 – 7/5

Phil leads 32-2-13 on the head to head

Phil is 6/4 and has not beaten Anderson in nearly three years in the Premier League. Between this and 2012 Gary is undefeated in the last six. In this period the games have gone the distance. I must at this point mention darting colleague and personal friend Carl Redden aka @reddencarl who on a weekly basis have a brief exchange on our initial thoughts for the impending week’s meeting. Carl was interested in the game going the distance and agree with his thoughts that the 6/5 on the game going the distance again was not out the question.

Before you read on, Carl has secured this bet and I would like to promote his fundraising efforts by his climb of Kilimanjaro for Alzheimers Society this year. Carl would love your support! Text REDX77 £10 to 70070 and make a difference today!

The bet I had in mind relates in addition to the Anderson match and although I find it tough to call although Gary is the narrow favourite that he can make it seven games without defeat to the power is a distinct possibility. With Taylor missing doubles and misfiring on scoring taking a Anderson and Wright +1.5 leg handicap is 2.32 at Betfair sportsbook and a four point bet.

Michael van Gerwen Vs Adrian Lewis – 5/8 – 9/2 – 7/2

Michael leads 25 – 2 – 11 on the head to head

MVG on week one fell to Wade but picked up the pace last week. MCG won the European Tour event at the weekend and rarely looked troubled throughout. Lewis was unbeaten at the Premier League 2015 and although the second meeting could have been considered a dead rubber tie as MVG could not be caught at the top of the table.

Lewis played a sterling display in week two, but his misfiring in past events showed resilience in beating Chisnall last week and maintaining a 100% record. Lewis let us down last week with his ton plus checkout not landing, but Jackpot can look towards powering over the line. With MVG’s motivation as it is MVG to win 7-4 or better is 10/11 with Sportingbet which is a little disrespectful to the former 2X champion. Like on another match I am suited to the 180s on this and under 7.5 180s in the match meets my price valuation at evens and Hills fits this criteria.

Robert Thornton Vs Raymond van Barneveld – 3/1 – 4/1 – 4/5

Raymond leads 9-2-3 in the head to head

The price reflects the head to head? Is it Thornton’s whitewash in night one? Could it be Thornton has one TV victory over Barney, which was October 2013? As Thornton missed the European Tour it is a minefield to assume how he has prepared for this game. On a balance of probability Thornton would have been throwing throughout his illness and will be preparing increasingly for this must win tie.

Without the head to head you have to consider opposing the former five-time champion especially with Raymond not throwing first? Again the bookies are taking a liberal view on the Dutchman that Thornton the 3/10 favourite for the drop will fold. This is not in the context of fair minded punters and that includes all you readers! Drawing you into a price where you consider it a bet you cannot lose.

This is a no bet for the above reasons as trying to bet on some unknowns is a mugs game and will enjoy watching this!

Recommendations:

  • P Wright and G Anderson +1.5 legs – 2.32 Betfair 4 pts
  • Under 32.5 180s – 5/6 Coral 3pts
  • MVG/Lewis- Under 7.5 180s – 1/1 Hills 2pts
  • Chisnall/Smith – Under 7.5 180s – 17/20 Boylesports 1.5 pts
  • Ante post bet – MVG most 180s – 1/1 Coral 5pts
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14 Comments
  1. Profile photo of edgeman
    edgeman 1 year ago

    Great write up. Have to say though, in general, betting on the premier league is a mugs game. I’ve learned to make my bets at an absolute minimum because the format just throws up strange results. Don’t get me wrong, I love darts betting. I turned a bank of 500 into over 2000 betting on the worlds (pdc). But judging on some results I get the impression the players aren’t as bothered about the league.
    Tonight’s game include Smith v chizzy and MVG v Lewis which for me would normally be absolute bankers on the overs with 180’s. But with this short format you can’t say for sure as it sometimes takes a few legs for them to start firing. By the same token I could never bet under though. I know you say the price of evens appeals to you for under in the MVG match but I can’t bring myself to do it. MVG himself could hit that amount if he is on fire.
    Basically I’ve learned a hard way, but I now save my bank for tournaments where I know players are going all out for wins and I lump on.
    That said I will have a very very small accy on a few bets just for interest, which I’ll post later.
    All the best for your recommendations.

  2. Profile photo of bullseye
    bullseye 1 year ago

    Premier League Darts week 3

    Singles:

    Van Gerwen vs Lewis, double result Van Gerwen (6 legs) – Van Gerwen 6/5 **NAP**

    Van Gerwen vs Lewis, highest checkout score over 120.5 5/6

    Van Gerwen vs Lewis, first break of throw Van Gerwen 5/6

    Van Gerwen vs Lewis, Van Gerwen over 4.5 180’s 11/8

    Anderson vs Taylor, Anderson draw no bet 5/6

    Double:

    Wright vs Wade, double chance Wright
    Chisnall vs Smith, double chance Chisnall

    10/11 **NB**

    The reason Van Gerwen lost against wade in week one was his finishing, only four of seventeen doubles (24%) were taken out. Since then he really has addressed it finishing on 70% against Anderson last week and 75% against Gurney in the European tour final on Sunday. If he puts in his usual display of power scoring against Lewis tonight, who admittedly has been playing brilliantly recently, then he should be able to pull clear after six legs and get over the finishing line first. Also, that recent level of finishing should give him a great chance of getting the first break of throw.

    Against Anderson last week MVG hit ten 140’s and six 180’s whilst against Gurney on sunday five 140’s and six 180’s. I think there is a feeling that when he is in an important match or faces any of the big names generally his 180 output is high so I do think he will breach his maximum line tonight. En route to the final on Sunday some of MVG’s finishing was outstanding. He nailed a 148 against Chisnall in the quarter, a 170 against King in the semi and a 152 against Gurney in the final! The highest checkout score line is set at 120.5 which is very achievable for both to surpass.

    Smith has not adapted to the Premier league in the same way Huybrechts did last year. Up to now his power scoring, especially the maximums has been limited so he has struggled to make an impact. Chisnall has posted two decent averages of 101 and 98 against Thornton and Lewis respectively and tonight he should get a draw from Smith at the very least.

    Wright changed his darts last week so there were a lot of sub ton visits and only two maximums meaning he finished on a poor 88 average. He just fell over the line but did state he would revert back to his old darts for week three. Wade can be very capable on his day as winessed in week one with his high scoring and excellent finishing. In truth it could go either way but I think Wright may just edge it so the double chance will allow for insurance in the event of a draw.

    Taylor was excellent last week but what worries me is his consistancy. You never know what taylor to expect nowadays. With Anderson you will always get a high volume of 140’s with the possibility of additional maximums thrown in. For that reason Im willing to back Anderson on draw no bet tonight as he looks to make a statement to reinforce his standing as c world champion.

    Prices with Bet365

    Good luck all

  3. Profile photo of recoba
    recoba 1 year ago

    First thoughts …
    Lewis was real unlucky to not get 5/6 180s last week. Usually ounce the first 2 are in the treble 20 you can count on a 180 coming.
    There was also a couple of occasions were he hit 2 treble 20s but moved to try set up a certain finish.

    Lewis over 3.5 180s EVS
    Bet365

    Back later with few other for an double or treble 😉

  4. Profile photo of recoba
    recoba 1 year ago

    Wade over 2.5 180s at EVS looks achievable too although hes real inconsistent. Just don’t know how he’s going to play one minute from the next bit think ill take a chance as 3,if he starts motoring looks good.

  5. Profile photo of recoba
    recoba 1 year ago

    Skybet enhanced treble
    Chisnall,Anderson and Van Gerwen all to win 8/1.
    Looks okay to me if Chizzy wins. 😌

  6. Profile photo of recoba
    recoba 1 year ago

    Apologies gents(surprised no one said)
    Its Chizzy,Van Gerern and TAYLOR not Anderson on Skybet. Not be on that as I think Anderson win. Just but

  7. Profile photo of recoba
    recoba 1 year ago

    Small stakes for interest

    Chisnall..win
    Anderson…win
    Thornton +2.5
    Wade..+2.5
    Lewis…+2.5

    Pays approximately 17/1 bet365

  8. Profile photo of recoba
    recoba 1 year ago

    Speculative but why not? Tough card tonight

    Chisnall v Smith. U 7.5. 180s
    Wade over 2.5 180s Anderson most 180s
    Lewis over 3.5 180s
    Thornton v Barney over 5.5 180s.

    £2.50…returns £51.84. Bet365

  9. Profile photo of bertie
    bertie 1 year ago

    This is a terrible format the bookies must love it to many games end in a draw

  10. Profile photo of recoba
    recoba 1 year ago

    Absolute garbage @bertie!

    My 2 singles on Wade and Lewis with there 180 have been profitable. To be honest I was kinda chasing it but try watching it. Not been ONE draw before tonight so…EH?
    In fact om just in…has there been a draw on 4/5 weeks?. 😫 💤

  11. Profile photo of recoba
    recoba 1 year ago

    *im just in
    Still..any draws?? 😳

  12. Profile photo of bullseye
    bullseye 1 year ago

    Singles:

    Van Gerwen vs Lewis, double result Van Gerwen (6 legs) – Van Gerwen 6/5 **NAP** LOST

    Van Gerwen vs Lewis, highest checkout score over 120.5 5/6 LOST

    Van Gerwen vs Lewis, first break of throw Van Gerwen 5/6 WON

    Van Gerwen vs Lewis, Van Gerwen over 4.5 180’s 11/8 WON

    Anderson vs Taylor, Anderson draw no bet 5/6 LOST

    Double:

    Wright vs Wade, double chance Wright
    Chisnall vs Smith, double chance Chisnall

    10/11 **NB** WON

    Not the worst day but was so close to being better. MVG threw his dart in the wrong bed for a 81 checkout and conceeded the crucial leg to lead after six whilst Lewis wired the bull on a 164 to just miss out on the highest checkout score. Im happy the NB landed with the double chances for Wright and Chisnall on a day where the first draw of 2016 occured.

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