Following Novak Djokovic’s ill-fated Adria Tour charity tournament and Andy Murray’s ‘Battle of Britain’ exhibition matches, there is a growing appetite for the return of tennis.
With the first official ATP tournament slated for August 3rd at the Washington Open, it’s time to turn attention to the tennis betting markets and our top tips for maximising your returns.
Interpretation of Statistics
The old saying goes that there are ‘lies, damned lies and statistics’ and this can often apply in tennis if they are taken at face value.
To give a simple example a punter may look at 20-time Grand Slam winner Roger Federer and see value in him to win the French Open without taking the time to study and interpret his statistics on clay (his least favourite surface).
Similarly, it can sometimes be a trap to pay too much attention to a player’s recent form: if the player has suffered a heavy loss in their most recent match it doesn’t necessarily mean their bad form will continue.
In cases like this it’s important to have a keen eye for detail, maybe they were playing on their least favourite surface or against a player with a style which didn’t suit their game or perhaps they were simply under the weather.
Poor recent form can have a huge impact on market odds and this can allow analytical bettors who consistently read up on all the latest tennis betting news to find value in players who have possibly been underestimated.
Don’t be afraid to swim against the tide
Market sentiment can often gravitate towards the crowd favourites, for instance, the likes of Andy Murray and Roger Federer are sometimes at shorter odds than justified because of the level of their support. Being able to spot when odds have perhaps moved too far in on a wave of market enthusiasm and support for a player, can allow the keen-eyed bettor to uncover value.
Pushing back against market sentiment is also an important part of an effective tennis betting strategy during the game itself.
A player may start the match at odds of 1.5 and win the first set but then go on to lose the second. Market momentum in this scenario can often lead to a drift in the player’s odds, however, the conscientious bettor may ask whether this is rational given their pre-match status as favourite and the fact that the scores are only tied.
The ability to take a step back and spot when the market has perhaps been carried away by its own momentum is a vital skill in finding value in tennis betting.
Understand the players
Tennis is brimming with contrasting styles and temperaments and having a fundamental understanding of their strengths and weaknesses is perhaps the most important tool for punters. Some players may tend to succeed against big servers because of their high return percentages but they may struggle against left-handers, some players may tend to make fast starts but struggle with the pressure of closing matches out.
Knowledge is power and being able to identify where certain players tend to succeed and fail is paramount to finding value in both the pre-match and in-play markets.
Try to take a rational, clear-headed approach towards market odds without allowing emotion or ‘gut instinct’ to muddy the waters. Do your research and trust your own analysis to gain an advantage over other traders and stay ahead of the curve. As the resumption of tennis approaches, time is of the essence in getting a head-start on which players look set to make a strong return.