The Voice of Value Tips – A 16/1 winner on the cards? God Willing!

ascot

A HUGE amount of racing to wade through this weekend and I must say that some of it is less than inspiring as far as the betting opportunities go.  However, I have managed to find a few that I think are very good prices for us to get involved with.

2.20 Newbury

The first of those who have caught my eye is PRIVATE MATTER.  Both of his wins have come on soft ground so today’s conditions will suit nicely.  He also has the benefit of Ryan Moore in the saddle, who for me is the best jockey in Europe. Given his rating and his love of soft ground I would have priced him up somewhere nearer 7/2 so I was surprised to see prices as big as 11/2 available although that seems to have been clipped into 5/1 at the time of writing. Either way, that makes him a definite bet for me.

3.30 Newbury

Another one with good form on soft ground and Ryan Moore on it’s back is SOMEHOW.  This is a step up for the filly, no doubt about that and she will need to improve a little to win but she looks to me like a horse who is on the upgrade and I thought her win two weeks ago has perhaps been underrated.  She had to deal with a bit of trouble in running but still managed to win easily.

Aidan O’Brien always leaves some scope improvement in his fillies and you often see them improve gradually over the course of the season. She allows gets a fillies’ allowance which gives her a handy weight advantage.  Paddy Power clearly disagree with me, having priced Somehow up at 7/1.  That suggests they don’t see her in the top 3 but I definitely do so this is a nice each way betting opportunity for me.

3.55 Thirsk

I’ve found one in this race that I think is overpriced in the shape of GOD WILLING.  He’s a horse I have followed for a few years and after some recent below-average runs he has dropped down to a handicap mark below his last winning mark.  He has decent form on soft ground, he is better than most of these when he is on form and I can see him arriving late to nick this at a big price.

Recommendations:

  • 2.20 Newbury – Private Matter – 3pt win at 5/1 with Hills, Ladbrokes, Coral
  • 3.30 Newbury – Somehow – 2pt each way at 7/1 with Paddy Power and Coral
  • 3.55 Thirsk – God Willing – 1pt each way at 16/1 with Bet365 and SkyBet
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