The Voice of Value: Royal Ascot Day Two Tips

RoyalAscot1

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SOME fantastic action on Tuesday at Royal Ascot with Ribchester getting us off to the perfect start. Unfortunately it was downhill from there for my selections with the bigger priced horses failing to hit the frame as I had hoped.

Beyond Conceit was the biggest disappointment, being held up off the pace and finding nothing at all.  Lady Aurelia was just stunning and left me wondering why I let my head rule my heart in that race.

Anyway, back to the well we go for day two…

2.30pm – Jersey Stakes 

I have been trying to find a reliable link between the French three year old form and the British and Irish form to work out if this French horse Le Brivido is the real deal.  If the French 2,000 Guineas is taken at face value then he should be a good thing, having lost by only a short head to Brametot who has since won the Prix Du Jockey Club (a more valuable Group 1 race than the French 2,000 Guineas).  One potential link is Rivet, who was beaten 3 lengths by Le Brivido and then subsequently beaten 8 and a bit lengths today (Tuesday) by Barney Roy.  That puts the French form a bit behind the British form and I actually think the 1,000 Guineas won by Winter could be the best form of the lot.  This is a very roundabout way of me telling you that I think DABAN is overpriced at the 7/1 mark having only been beaten 2 and a bit lengths by Winter after not having the perfect position in the race.  Frankie can’t ride because he is injured but Andrea Atzeni is a capable deputy and that’s the value pick for me.

3.05pm – Queen Mary Stakes

Happy Like A Fool is massively popular and why not after the stunning performance from Lady Aurelia?  Wesley Ward thinks this filly is “quite special” so it would be no surprise to see her bolt up and give him three wins in a row in the race. The value has all gone from the price though at this stage and I have concerns about her breeding – her sire (father) tends to produce horses that prefer racing on the dirt so running on the turf is a bit of an unknown.

The alternative choice for me is a speculative one with MRS GALLAGHER for the William Jarvis yard.  The trainer doesn’t have many horses and you can be sure that this one is the apple of his eye and will have been wrapped in cotton wool for today.  Winning a race like this could be astronomical for a small yard like this.  She won a tuppence ha’penny race on debut but it was over this course and distance (and on similar ground) so that is a positive straight away.  The second placed horse that day has since won, as have the third and fifth placed horses which makes the form stand out quite a bit for me. If this one was trained by Hannon or Stoute or O’Brien she would be half the price and I think there is plenty of value here.

3.40pm – Duke of Cambridge Stakes

MIX AND MINGLE shouldn’t be as big a price as she is for this.  Although Qemah was unlucky against her last time Chris Wall’s filly still beat her by 2 and a bit lengths. Mix and Mingle also beat another horse I think could be quite special (Tabarrak) so I am happy to take the double-figured price each way.  That said, there is another one that I think could be massively overpriced and that’s SMART CALL for Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore.  This South African mare won several Group 1 races down there and if Stoute has worked his magic over the last couple of months since she was transferred to his yard the 8/1 could look hilarious. Rather than pick between these two that I like I’m going to have a bet on both of them.  I’ll take Mix and Mingle each way and Smart Call on the nose.

4.20pm – Prince of Wales Stakes

Aidan O’Brien drew a blank on day one and that included the very disappointing Churchill and Declarationofpeace, the latter being the subject of a huge gamble before finishing plum last.  Does that mean that we should be wary of backing O’Brien’s horses for day two? Or does it mean that we will get better prices on good things? I don’t think there is a simple answer to those questions but in this particular race Highland Reel looks like a cracking price to me.  I make the race more or less a match between himself and Jack Hobbs. There is an argument that Jack Hobbs prefers softer ground and I just think the robustness of Highland Reel’s win last time (when he effectively stepped straight off the flight due to a delay and bolted up) was so impressive.  Even if there are issues with the O’Brien horses (which is probably a dubious conclusion to come to after one day) this lad is tough enough and classy enough to win this regardless.

5.00pm – Royal Hunt Cup

There’s no doubt that this is a tricky race to find a winner in but the bookies are helping us out a bit by going 6 places each way in some cases and that’s a concession worth taking advantage of if we can identify some well-handicapped horses.  FASTNET TEMPEST and TABARRAK are two that are still ahead of the handicapper in my opinion.  Fastnet Tempest has really looked the part this season, going up 11 lbs for two wins and a third place in big handicaps.  I think the handicapper has gone easy on him and the mile might just be his best trip so I expect more improvement again here.  Tabarrak is top weight but there’s not a huge weight difference between top and bottom of the handicap, his connections think he could be a Group quality horse and he’s a big lad who won’t have a problem carrying the weight. 25/1 is a nice big price.  Given the 6 places on offer let’s have a punt on both of them each way.

5.35pm – Sandringham Handicap

My old Da knows a nicely handicapped Michael Stoute horse when he sees one and he is all over GYMNASTE in the lucky last.  Whilst the price isn’t massive I tend to agree with him here – Gymnaste should have won on handicap debut and could be miles better than the mark of 90 that she currently has.  The 5 places on offer by a few bookies is enough to convince me that we should be having a small each way bet here.

Good luck to everyone on day two!

Recommendations:

  • 2.30pm – Daban – 2pt each way at 7-1 with SkyBet and William Hill
  • 3.05pm – Mrs Gallagher – 1pt each way at 14-1 with Bet365 and Paddy Power (both paying 4 places)
  • 3.40pm – Mix and Mingle – 1pt each way at 12-1 with Skybet (paying 4 places)
  • 3.40pm – Smart Call – 2pt win at 8-1 with Hills, Betfred, Ladbrokes and others
  • 4.20pm – Highland Reel – 3pt win at 11-4 with Skybet, Betfred and others
  • 5.00pm – Fastnet Tempest – 1pt each way at 10-1 with Paddy Power (paying 6 places)
  • 5.00pm – Tabarrak – 1pt each way at 25-1 with Skybet (paying 6 places)
  • 5.35pm – Gymnaste – 1pt each way at 7-1 with Bet365, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power (all paying 5 places)
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1 Comment
  1. Profile photo of peterparker
    peterparker 3 months ago

    Nice picks with highland reel

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