The Voice of Value: Royal Ascot Day Three Tips

RoyalAscot1

I THOROUGHLY enjoyed Wednesday’s racing I have to admit. It was all really competitive stuff and I might be biased but the finish to the Prince of Wales Stakes was just sensational.

Highland Reel showed all that steely resolve that I mentioned yesterday to deliver us a nice winner at 11-4.  With Tabarrak grabbing a place at 25-1 later on it wasn’t a bad day at all.  The one sour note was the apparently very strong draw bias over the straight mile course.  That put paid to any chance that Mrs Gallagher had of being involved and it was the same story for

It’s frustrating when an unexpected draw bias like that emerges as the day unfolds but you just need to try to work out what is happening and use it to your advantage if possible.  It is certainly very little help to the average punter though.  I suspect the reason for the draw bias was something to do with the way that the course was watered.  If they water the course again overnight the bias may be gone again tomorrow or indeed it might switch from the stand’s side to the far side.  That is equally frustrating because it doesn’t let us look ahead to some of the racing on day three with a whole lot of confidence.

Anyway, enough bleating from me, let’s see what day three has in store…

2.30pm – The Norfolk Stakes

I’m torn between two here.  McERIN fits the Wesley Ward profile of a speedy five furlong two year old but he lost on his second race which is unusual for one of Ward’s youngsters.  His price is appealing though and there isn’t an obvious standout from the British and Irish youngsters in the field.  The one that appeals at a bigger price is CONSEQUENCES for David O’Meara and Daniel Tudhope.  Tudhope hasn’t had too many rides this week so far but he is a jockey that I have lots of admiration for.  He also returns a level stakes profit when riding for David O’Meara this season.  This horse looks like it could be something special – you can ignore his debut when the rain came and the ground ended up too soft for him.  The good to firm ground should be perfect.  Given that I think both of these are good value I will have a punt on both of them.

3.05pm – Tercentenary Stakes

TAMLEEK looks potentially progressive at this trip, has the ground he wants and looks like a nice bit of value so he is the one I’m going for.  The form at the top of the market doesn’t look too strong to me and I think they could all be susceptible to a progressive type.

3.40pm – Ribblesdale Stakes

Every time I say the name of the horse MORI, I think of the character Morrie in Goodfellas.  He ends up getting whacked by Jimmy and Tommy so let’s hope that it’s a happier ending for our Mori who I think is far and away the best horse in this race.  He has improved with each run and will probably improve again to win this.

4.20pm – Gold Cup

A fantastic race with so much history.  I’ll spare you the full wikipedia update but the race was first run in 1807 at a time when would-be footballers hadn’t managed to invent their sport yet and were probably just throwing rocks at each other.  Order of St George is the short-priced Aidan O’Brien runner who won in some style last year.  He is very inconsistent though and I can’t be backing him at even money for this, particularly because I suspect that he probably prefers slightly softer ground.  The obvious value alternative for me is BIG ORANGE who is a horse that you can’t help but love. He never gives up and is an absolute battler.  He will lead from the front and anyone that wants to get past him in the home straight will need to be tough as old boots.

5.00pm – Britannia Stakes 

I backed RUSUMAAT last time out and he didn’t let me down, winning nicely after being gambled down from 10/1 to 11/2.  I think he still has plenty of improvement in him and although he is now carrying top weight he will love the ground and is well drawn (assuming the same draw bias as yesterday).  I was surprised to see him available at 25/1.

5.35pm – King George V Stakes

There aren’t any that really jump out at me here.  Sofia’s Rock appeals to a certain extent for Mark Johnston who has won the race five times in the past but I’m not overly confident so won’t be having a bet in this one.

Recommendations

  • 2.30pm – McErin – 2pt win at 5-1 with Betfair and Paddy Power
  • 2.30pm – Consequences – 1pt each way at 14-1 with Bet365 and Betfred (both offering 4 places)
  • 3.05pm – Tamleek – 1pt each way at 9-1 with William Hill and Bet365
  • 3.40pm – Mori – 3pt win at 5-2 with Betfred, Paddypower and others
  • 4.20pm – Big Orange – 1pt each way at 8-1 with Bet365 and Betway (both offering 1/4 odds 3 places)
  • 5.00pm – Rusumaat – 1pt each way at 25-1 with William Hill (paying 5 places)
  • 5.35pm – No bet
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  • : ITV
1 Comment
  1. Profile photo of maccathered
    maccathered 1 year ago

    Well done on big Orange pal great tip cheers

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