SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE: RACE PREVIEW

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THE Supreme Novices Hurdle looks to be a cracker this year. Last year’s winner Cinders and Ashes is this year entered in the Stan James Champion Hurdle where he has a great e/w chance writes Milesey. My Tent Or Yours caught the eye of everyone with some pulsating performances. Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old heads into the race after his facile success in the Betfred Hurdle and the way the superstar cruised to victory in the hottest two-mile handicap hurdle of the season will live long in the memory. With the likes of Irish raider Jezki, Paul Nicholls’ Dodging Bullets and Willie Mullins’ Un Atout also taking their chance in the race, My Tent Or Yours will have to be every bit as good as he looked at Newbury Jezki arrives having won all four of his hurdle runs this season, including the last two in Grade 1 company. The first came in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse (2m, soft) when beating Champagne Fever just over 1l, before a 6l defeat of Waaheb in the Future Champions Novice at Leopardstown over Christmas (2m, soft). Anyway, the lack of a recent run and his poor run here last year in the Champion Bumper are off putting, despite his admirable winning streak in Ireland where he has brushed aside everything put in front of him with relative ease.

Melodic Rendezvous have shortened up after a recent demolition job of previously unbeaten Puffin Billy at Exeter. This horse has won three of his four hurdle outings, the third of which came in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown in January (2m1f, heavy).

Un Atout (trained by Willie Mullins) is unbeaten in three starts, the five-year-old has yet to come off the bridle in landing a bumper and two hurdle races.
Paul Nicholls’ Dodging Bullets have won a Grade 2 over C&D in November before getting stuck in the mud when third in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton. He can be expected to bounce back from that defeat for Nicholls, who won this race twice since 2006.

Champagne Fever has won two of his four runs this season, including last time out in the Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown 31 days ago. He does also hold an entry in the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle, so non runner no bet would be preferred if backing. He also comes here as the reigning Champion Bumper winner, with three of the last ten winners of the Supreme having contested that race a year earlier.

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5 Comments
  1. Milesey 5 years ago

    Melodic Rendezvous is out of this race 😉

    Milesey

  2. Milesey 5 years ago

    William Hill Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

    Applying our speed-rating rule eliminates half the field, leaving us considering Cause of Causes, Champagne Fever, Jezki, Pique Sous, Dodging Bullets and River Maigue as likely contenders. Short-odds favourite, My Tent Or Yours, is worth a place market lay on this basis alone at around 1.57. Although visually impressive in his wins to date, he’s yet to be asked to race at breakneck speed, and his best form has come on flat tracks.

    Milesey

  3. 1plus2 5 years ago

    Supreme Novices Hurdle

    The opening race of the Festival. Here we highlight the essential trends you should be aware of when making your selections for the Supreme Novices hurdle.

    BetVictorMONEY BACK ON ALL LOSERS IN THE SUPREME
    Back a loser in this race with BetVictor and get your stake refunded as a free bet, up to £50 to use by 15th March. Click this link to claim – BetVictor

    A two mile race for novice hurdlers which often produces winners who continue to shine at the festival in future years.

    William Hill 5 PLACES FOR EACH WAY BETS ON THE SUPREME NOVICES
    William Hill are offering a generous 5 places for your each way bets on the opening race. For new accounts also claim a free bet. Claim here – William Hill

    Cinders And Ashes, Jason Maguire – Supreme Novices Hurdle
    2012 Supreme Novices Hurdle winner, Cinders and Ashes.

    To see key trends for any of the other Cheltenham races, click the menu links on the left.

    BetVictorBack UN ATOUT with BetVictor and get your money back as a free bet if it loses

    Un Atout was 8/1 when first advised.

    Supreme Novices Hurdle Trends

    10/10 had won at least 50% of their hurdle starts
    9/10 were aged five or six
    8/10 had run within the last 45 days
    8/10 won last time out
    7/10 had previously contested a Graded race

    Supreme Novices Hurdle Trends Analysis
    The Supreme Novices is a great race to get involved in from an ante-post perspective and with the exception of Ebaziyan in 2007 shocks have been fairly rare recently in this race.

    Concentrate on five and six-year-olds as they have won all bar six of the renewals of this event since 1972! The only recent exceptions to the age trend have both been owned by JP McManus so if your fancy is seven or older but owned by JP it might still have a chance.

    Supreme Novices Hurdle Last Ten Winners
    Table below shows the last ten winners of the race, their age at the time of winning, trainer, jockey and odds (starting price).

    Year Horse Age Trainer Jockey Price
    2012 Cinders And Ashes 5yo D McCain J Maguire 10/1
    2011 Al Ferof 5yo P Nicholls R Walsh 10/1
    2010 Menorah 5yo P Hobbs R Johnson 12/1
    2009 Go Native 6yo N Meade P Carberry 12/1
    2008 Captain Cee Bee 7yo E Harty R Thornton 17/2
    2007 Ebaziyan 6yo W Mullins D Condon 40/1
    2006 Noland 5yo P Nicholls R Walsh 6/1
    2005 Arcalis 5yo J H Johnson G Lee 20/1
    2004 Brave Inca 6yo C Murphy B Cash 7/2F
    2003 Back In Front 6yo E OGrady N Williamson 3/1F

    Supreme Novices Preview
    This race has been one of the highlights of the Festival for Irish horses in the last decade, so it could pay to focus any ante-post selection on the outcome of the main Irish novice hurdle trials: the Paddy Power Future Champion Novice, The Deloitte and The Royal Bond.

    Supreme Novices Tip
    Davy Russell is very sweet on the chances of UN ATOUT and whilst Willie Mullins’ horse may have something to find on official figures, the style of his wins has been undeniably impressive.

    My Tent Or Yours looks very short now and the Supreme has not been a good race for favourites in recent years so UN ATOUT is taken to get Willie Mullins off to a flying start.

    BetVictorBack UN ATOUT with BetVictor and get your money back as a free bet if it loses

  4. the chief 5 years ago

    I passed on a tip last week for river maigue e/w 14/1 although I’m no expert on horses I’ve done 20 quid e/w at william hills who go 5 places, and with xtra funds from my Sunday bets coming up,I’m seeing lots of tips for dodging bullets e/w wiv hills going 5 places I’m taking this e/w as I think two races on the card as 2 short price favs I can’t c losing and will have a watching brief unless these two horses come in on the opener then I may do a double

    Good luck with your bets today

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