CENTENARY NOVICES: RACE PREVIEW

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CARLITO Brigante is the bookie’s favorite here, despite there are a lot of contenders and the odds are very close in this wide open race writes Milesey. Winner of the Coral Cup in 2011, Carlito Brigante also scored over fences at Cheltenham earlier this season and ran well behind Dynaste there in November and we believe he is capable of running a big race here. Kapga De Cerisy has a lack of experience in bigger fields and has only been to Cheltenham once, but he is a very fair each way chance and is one of the form horses coming into the race. The Druids Nephew has looked a smart prospect from the day he joined Turnell from the point-to-point sphere and looks nailed on to take over from Coral Cup/Jewson fourth Micheal Flips as the star of the stable.

Attaglance and Colour Squadron have also attracted support in the race but although the former was a Festival winner over hurdles last season, the latter is seemingly priced on expectation and not previous form, with his jumping certainly leaving something to be desired.

And if you are looking for a long shot, don’t forget to consider Vulcanite. He’s not a sure runner here, so bet on him only with bookmakers offering a Non Runner No Bet promotion.

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2 Comments
  1. Milesey 5 years ago

    Rewards4Racing Novices´ Handicap Chase

    Restless Harry (60.0), Hazy Tom (19.5) and Shangani (9.60) have posted beter speed figures over fences than the rest of these, but given Hazy Tom’s dodgy showing at the Festival last year, I’ll be splitting my stake between the other two. A return to his best form would make Restless Harry difficult to beat in this, and Shangani is still open to further progression.

    Milesey

  2. 1plus2 5 years ago

    Rewards4Racing Novices Handicap Chase

    The Rewards4Racing Novices Handicap Chase was introduced into the Festival in 2011 replacing the old Jewson Novices Handicap and also switching to the first day of the Festival. The new Jewson race is now a championship race off level weights for novices over 2m 5f.

    Rewards4Racing Novices Chase Trends
    8/8 finished in the top five on all their completed starts over fences
    8/8 were aged five to eight
    8/8 finished either first or second on their last outing
    7/8 were officially rated 123-139
    6/8 had won no more than once over fences

    Rewards4Racing Novices Chase Analysis
    We will continue to use the old Jewson Chase trends but we should remain aware that the new race will now be raced on a different part of the Cheltenham course and as such is over a slightly shorter distance of two and a half miles as opposed to 2m 5f.

    The handicap ceiling has also moved down to a maximum of an official rating of 140 (although Hunt Ball managed to exploit the Rules to run off 142!) so be aware of that when making your selections as up to 2010 there was no upper ceiling and this may change the viability of the existing trends.

    Rewards4Racing Novices Chase Last Eight Winners
    Table below shows the last eight winners of the race, their age/weight at the time of winning, trainer, jockey and odds (starting price).
    Year Horse Age/Wgt Trainer Jockey Price
    2012 Hunt Ball 7-12-0 Keiran Burke N Schofield 13/2F
    2011 Divers 7-11-4 F Murphy G Lee 10/1
    2010 Copper Bleu 8-11-0 P Hobbs R Johnson 12/1
    2009 Chapoturgeon 5-10-11 P Nicholls T Murphy 8/1
    2008 Finger On The Pulse 7-10-12 T Taaffe B Geraghty 9/1
    2007 LAntartique 7-10-11 F Murphy G Lee 20/1
    2006 Reveillez 7-10-11 J Fanshawe AP McCoy 9/2F
    2005 King Harald 7-10-4 M Bradstock M Batchelor 9/1

    Rewards4Racing Novices Chase Preview
    This race will always have a very tight look to it now that the race conditions have changed and the whole field are likely to be very closely matched. One of the old trends where we were looking for a horse with less than eleven stone has definitely gone out the window as every horse in last year’s race carried more than that amount.

    The existing statistics may not be as significant as in recent years but the 2011 winner Divers did tick most of the trends boxes so we are still looking for a horse who has more to offer the handicapper.

    2012 winner Hunt Ball could have been one of those rare exceptions where the horse is improving faster than the handicapper can keep pace with him and his win probably can be ignored from a trends perspective.

    Rewards4Racing Novices Tips
    Most of the recent winners of this race were running in their first handicap but the runners with that profile this year don’t appeal.

    Venetia Williams’ five Festival wins have all come in handicaps and she has a great chance of winning another with the progressive SHANGANI.

    The Williams’ horse impressed with his jumping on his last run and the handicapper has raised him ten pounds for that win but that may not be enough, especially with the ground riding to his liking.

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