THE battle to beat the drop in the Bundesliga resumes on Saturday as Fortuna Dusseldorf and Paderborn meet at the Merkur Spiel-Arena.
The hosts enjoyed a successful return to the Bundesliga last season by registering a tenth-placed finish, however, this term has presented Die Flingeraner with a dose of “second season syndrome” as they currently occupy the relegation playoff spot.
Dusseldorf's disastrous first-half of the season saw the axe fall on manager Friedhelm Funkel in late January and he was swiftly replaced by Uwe Rosler.
The former Leeds, Wigan and Brentford boss has generated the famed “new manager bounce ” having lost only one of his six league games to date and a much-needed three points for Rosler and Co on Saturday would put breathing space between Dusseldorf and bottom-placed Paderborn.
Following back-to-back promotions Paderborn are propping up the Bundesliga table, however, Steffen Baumgart's free-flowing football has earned a lot of plaudits and his side will more than likely play without fear when they face Fortuna this weekend.
Indeed, there is much to be admired about seeing a newly-promoted side attacking with plenty of spirit, however, with just 16 points on the board, Padderborn will have to pull off the greatest of escapes to avoid an immediate return to the second-tier.
The Betting Odds
Fortuna Dusseldorf are 23/20 with UniBet to claim all three points in this crunch relegation clash, while a share of the spoils pays 23/10 with the same firm.
Paderborn picked up their first league win of the season in the reverse fixture and the Bundesliga minnows are 13/5 with BetVictor to do the double over Dusseldorf.
The Betting Angles
Given what's at stake, coupled with the fact that this clash will be played behind closed doors, I'm going to steer clear of the outright betting here, however, better value could lie in the card markets.
At the time of writing, match referees have not yet been announced, however, I suspect that this will be a closely-fought contest and with that in mind I like the look of the 6/4 (Bet365) on offer for both teams to collect over one card.
Not only is this a huge game at the bottom of the table, but it's also a battle between the two most ill-disciplined sides in the Bundesliga.
Fortuna have found themselves in trouble with referees more than any team in the league this season and Paderborn are not far behind in second place when it comes to clocking up cards – both teams are receiving just under 2.5 cards per game.
In considering what individuals may find their way into the match officials notebook a good candidate to consider is Paderborn midfielder Klaus Gjasula at 7/5 with PaddyPower
The tough-tackling Albanian is no stranger to a booking having picked up a bone-crunching 12 bookings in 22 league outings to date – the most-frequent offender in the division by quite some distance.
Prior to the enforced break Paderborn matches were also proving to be corner-heavy with the Bundesliga basement boys generating an average of 12.3 corners per game – the highest corner count across the league.
Digging a bit deeper on that figure it can be seen that Steffen Baumgart's side are conceding almost seven corners per-game and that has me attracted to the 11/10 on offer for Fortuna Dusseldorf to take over five corners at 11/10 (Bet 365)
Paderborn are drinking in the last-chance saloon and their adventurous style of play could lead to an open encounter in this crucial fixture at the bottom of the Bundesliga and that adds to the appeal of backing the hosts to hit five or more corners.
Predicted Line-ups
Fortuna: Kastenmeier – Ayhan, Hoffmann, Suttner – Zimmermann, Stöger, Bodzek, Berisha, Thommy – Karaman, Hennings (c)
Out: Fink (personal reasons), Kownacki (knee), Steffen (knee)
Doubtful: Tekpetey (thigh)
Coach: Uwe Rösler
Paderborn: Zingerle – Jans, Strohdiek (c), Schonlau, Collins – Vasiliadis, Gjasula, Sabiri – Pröger, Srbeny, Antwi-Adjei
Out: Kilian (thigh)
Doubtful: Fridjonsson (knock), Mamba (knee), Michel (groin)
Coach: Steffen Baumgart
This German Bundesliga match between Fortuna Dusseldorf and Paderborn will be played on May 16, 2020 and kick off at 14:30. Check below for our tipsters best Fortuna Dusseldorf vs Paderborn prediction. You may also visit our dedicated betting previews section for the most up to date previews.