Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.

We completed the challenge last time out and how route to 1,000 can be found here: MFT 10 – 1000 Betting Challenge: Complete: This is how we did it. We have now won our last 23 bets across the two challenges.

While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.

We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.

We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI. As per our own rules we reset the betting balance back to 100 units on Bet17.

For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.

Bet 1 saw Cardiff score in the 2^nd half and the game end 1-1. The hosts generated 2.92 xG with 27 shots with seven on target.

Bet 2 – Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion – Wednesday 9^th September at 7:45pm

West Bromwich Albion have scored in all five Championship matches and should create enough chances to continue that run at Pride Park.

Albion have registered eight league goals, averaging 1.24 xG and 4.4 shots on target per game. Their attacking record has also travelled. They scored twice at Charlton Athletic and found the net at Middlesbrough, producing 1.43 xG per away match.

Derby County’s defensive numbers provide the strongest support for the selection. They have conceded 10 goals in five games and allow 2.19 xGA per match, the second-worst average in the Championship. John Eustace’s side have kept one clean sheet, which came at Portsmouth despite allowing 1.43 xG.

The numbers become weaker at Pride Park. Derby have conceded five goals across two home fixtures while allowing 2.63 xGA, 9.5 shots on target and 12.5 attempts inside the box per game. Swansea City created 3.00 xG during a 3-0 win here, while Cardiff City generated 2.26 in a 2-2 draw.

Saturday’s 3-0 defeat at West Ham United extended Derby’s run without a clean sheet to three matches. West Brom responded to their defeat at Middlesbrough by beating Watford 1-0, with the result maintaining their record of scoring in every league appearance.

Albion do not need to be clinical to find one goal. Their consistent scoring record meets a Derby defence allowing high-quality chances and substantial shot volume. Derby no clean sheet is the selection.

• Bet: Derby no clean sheet
• Odds: 2/9
• Bank: 12 units returns 14.66

Arsenal came within a whisker of Champions League glory last term and kick off their latest bid to rule Europe with a tricky trip to Naples tonight.

Having ended their long wait for a Premier League title, the Gunners will now turn their attention towards lifting Europe's biggest prize for the first time.

Mikel Arteta's side were formidable in the Champions League last term but Napoli are always capable of some magic in front of a partisan home crowd.

Napoli vs Arsenal top betting tips

Arsenal haven't put a foot wrong so far in the new campaign, with a win in the Community Shield followed by three successive Premier League victories.

Napoli, on the other hand, have lost their last two matches to Como and Inter Milan so it's no great surprise to see them as Bet365's 17/4 outsiders.

I'm not sure the Gunners should be as short as 4/6 but you can boost their odds to 13/10 by adding on under 3.5 goals.

Scott McTominay is a big loss in midfield for Napoli and Stanislav Lobotka will be tasked with stopping Arsenal from bossing it in the engine room.

The veteran Slovak is 11/4 to go into the book while backing him for over 1.5 fouls probably stands more chance at 6/5 with Bet365.

Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid

It has been a mixed bag so far for Liverpool under new boss Andoni Iraola so it's hard to know what to expect when they host Atletico Madrid in the Champions League tonight.

The Reds drew 2-2 in their first two Premier League outings but Iraola claimed his first win last Friday as they triumphed 2-0 on the road in Ipswich.

Concerns remain about the Liverpool defence but Bet365 still make them 7/10 favourites tonight against an Atletico side who lost 3-0 in Bilbao in their last La Liga outing.

Diego Simeone's men had collected seven points from their first three games before that mauling by Los Leones so the heavy defeat came as a bit of a surprise.

The Atletico Madrid boss will demand a reaction at Anfield and I fancy them to at least get on the scoresheet. BTTS pays just 8/13 with Bet365 but adding on over 2.5 goals takes you to 10/11.

Over 1.5 first-half goals is better at 5/4 and I'm going to have a punt on that after the same bet paid off for me in Liverpool's win over Ipswich.

Paris St-Germain vs Slovan Bratislava

Paris St-Germain are going for a hat-trick of Champions League triumphs and it would be one of the biggest shocks in recent history if they slipped up at home to Slovan Bratislava tonight.

The Slovaks were whipping boys when they last graced the league phase two seasons ago, losing all eight games and finishing with a goal difference of minus 20.

So it's hard to hold out much hope for Slovan against a PSG side who have swept all before them in Europe across the last two campaigns.

They might take a bit of heart from the fact Luis Enrique's side have made a poor start to their domestic campaign, going four games without a win.

But Bet365 still make Paris St-Germain 1/25 jollies tonight and they should come good back on Champions League duty.

All of Enrique's forwards are just 8/15 for a goal so it's better looking to the assist market for some value.

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Achraf Hakimi both set up six goals in the Champions League last term. The winger is 11/10 for another assist tonight while the Moroccan full-back is 7/5 in the same market.

Super singles

• Stanislav Lobotka over 1.5 fouls 6/5 Bet365
• Over 1.5 first-half goals in Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid 5/4 Bet365
• Khvicha Kvaratskhelia assist 11/10 Bet365

Upcoming match previews and betting tips

• Wed 17:45 Barcelona vs Feyenoord
• Wed 20:00 Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid
• Wed 20:00 Napoli vs Arsenal
• Wed 20:00 PSG vs Slovan Bratislava
• Wed 20:00 Chelsea vs Leeds United
• Wednesday’s Goals Accumulator Tips: Old Firm to fire in 3/1 Acca
• Football Bet of the Day: Expect goals in Enschede on Wednesday

Racing tips

Rizzel has picks for Redcar and Carlisle today as he bids to bash the bookies.

• Wednesday’s Racing Tips – Thunder Wonder Can Leave Rivals Thunderstruck

Thursday’s Football Bet of the Day sees me head to the MLS, and I’ve highlighted a goals-based selection in one of the fixtures.

⚽️ DC United vs Columbus Crew

🇺🇸 MLS

⏰ Thursday 10 September, 00:30

Goals could be in the offing in the capital in the early hours of Thursday morning as DC United entertain the Columbus Crew in an all-Eastern Conference clash.

Rene Weiler’s hosts have scored 28 goals across their opening 22 MLS clashes this campaign, with 15 (54%) of them coming in front of their supporters.

The Eagles have blanked in just two of their previous 14 MLS encounters – scoring two or more goals in half of them – and will look to breach a Crew backline that has yet to record a clean sheet on their MLS travels this season, shipping 2+ goals in 9/11 (82%) of them.

Laurent Courtois’ visitors have scored 34 goals across their opening 23 MLS encounters this season, with 17 (50%) of them coming on their travels.

The Crew have failed to score in just one of their last 19 MLS contests – scoring two or more goals in 10 (53%) of them – and they will be confident of getting on the scoresheet against a DC defence that has recorded a solitary shutout across their last 11 MLS clashes.

Interested in why both teams scoring is such a strong angle? Check out our Masterclass on BTTS and sharpen your match-reading game.

Bet of the Day

DC’s opening 11 MLS clashes in front of their supporters have averaged a whopping 3.36 goals per game, with Both Teams to Score paying out in six of the last eight and seven of the past 10 – as well as in nine of their previous 11 across all venues – whilst eight of their last 10 have gone over 2.5 Goals.

The Crew’s opening 23 fixtures in the MLS this term have averaged 3.17 goals per game, with Both Teams to Score landing in 17 (74%) of them – including in 10/11 (91%) of their road trips – whilst each of their last eight across all venues and 10/11 (91%) of their away matches have gone Over 2.5 Goals.

What’s more, Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in each of the last three meetings between these two clubs – including in the reverse fixture in July – and I’m backing that trend to continue in Washington in the early hours of Thursday morning.

• Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
• Pays 20/21 (bet365)

Join me on Telegram

I’m delighted to have joined the excellent team at Gambla to provide even more tips for those of you who want to follow me. I’ll be posting daily on my Private Telegram Channel which you can access here.

You can cancel at any time so why not join me? And let’s bash the bookies together.

Wednesday’s Football Bet of the Day sees me head to the goal-laden Dutch Eredivisie, and I’ve highlighted a goals-based selection in one of the fixtures.

⚽️ FC Twente vs SC Telstar

🇳🇱 Eredivisie

⏰ Wednesday 9 September, 17:45

Goals look on the cards at De Grolsch Veste on Wednesday evening as FC Twente host Telstar in the Eredivisie.

John van den Brom’s hosts have scored 25 goals across their opening 10 matches in league and Europe this season, with nine (36%) of those coming across their last three contests in the Eredivisie.

The Tukkers’ have failed to score in just two of those matches – notching on multiple occasions in seven (70%) of them – and will be confident of breaching a Telstar backline that has failed to keep a clean sheet in the Eredivisie this campaign, shipping 2+ goals in each of the last three.

Henk Brugge’s visitors made the headlines over the weekend, as goalkeeper Ronald Koeman Jnr scored twice from the spot to rescue a point at home to newly-promoted Cambuur.

The White Lions have found the back of the net in 22 of their previous 26 Eredivisie contests – scoring 2+ in five of their last eight – and will look to trouble a Twente defence that has recorded a solitary clean sheet in all competitions this term.

Interested in why both teams scoring is such a strong angle? Check out our Masterclass on BTTS and sharpen your match-reading game.

Bet of the Day

The Tukkers’ come into this clash as short-priced favourites, but I much prefer backing goals, with both teams contributing.

Twente’s opening 10 matches in all competitions this season have averaged an eye-catching 3.90 goals per game, with Over 2.5 Goals landing in eight (80%) of them, whilst seven (70%) have produced goals at both ends.

Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in 13 of Telstar’s previous 15 Eredivisie fixtures – including in all four this season – whilst 10 of their last 11 away from home have produced goals at both ends.

• Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
• Pays 4/5 (bet365)

Join me on Telegram

I’m delighted to have joined the excellent team at Gambla to provide even more tips for those of you who want to follow me. I’ll be posting daily on my Private Telegram Channel which you can access here.

You can cancel at any time so why not join me? And let’s bash the bookies together.

Following back-to-back winning four-folds at the weekend, view our expert's Goals Accumulator Tips for this week, which includes Total Team Goals tips.

Our Goals Acca Tips are based on statistical analysis of recent performances.

Birmingham To Score 1+ (Wednesday, 19:45)

Just one point and two places separate Norwich and Birmingham ahead of Wednesday night’s English Championship clash at Carrow Road.

Norwich have found some form after winning two of their last three league matches.

However, their defensive record remains a concern, with the Canaries yet to keep a clean sheet in five league outings this season.

Birmingham have scored in each of their previous four Championship matches, so back the visitors to make the net bulge at least once on Wednesday night.

Rangers To Score 2+ (Wednesday, 19:45)

Rangers will be aiming to continue their resurgence when St Mirren visit Ibrox on Wednesday night.

Derek McInnes’ side have put a sticky start behind them to win five of their last six matches.

St Mirren have also enjoyed a bright start to the campaign, but they suffered their first league defeat against Celtic last time out and were swept aside 5-1 on their most recent trip to Ibrox in the Scottish League Cup only last month.

With Rangers beginning to build momentum, back the hosts to score two or more goals on Wednesday night.

Celtic To Score 2+ (Wednesday, 20:00)

Celtic will be aiming to maintain their perfect Scottish Premiership record when they travel to St Johnstone on Wednesday night.

Martin O’Neill’s men have recovered well from their Champions League calamity in Austria, responding with three successive league victories.

St Johnstone have made an encouraging return to the top flight, with Sunday’s 2-1 win over Hibernian helping this column land a second successive winning acca.

Celtic have scored at least twice in each of their last five domestic victories and they may need another couple of goals to collect maximum points in Perth.

Atletico Madrid To Score 1+ (Wednesday, 20:00)

Liverpool begin their latest Champions League campaign against Atletico Madrid at Anfield on Wednesday night.

Andoni Iraola claimed his first league victory as Liverpool boss against Ipswich last Friday, while Atletico suffered their first defeat of the season in a 3-0 loss away at Athletic Bilbao.

Despite that setback, Diego Simeone’s side should take encouragement from Liverpool’s defensive record, with the Reds having conceded twice against both Newcastle and Nottingham Forest this season.

With Iraola’s men yet to convince at the back, back Atletico to find the net at Anfield.

Goals Accumulator Tips

• Birmingham To Score 1+
• Rangers To Score 2+
• Celtic To Score 2+
• Atletico Madrid To Score 1+
• £10 on today's Acca returns £38.74 at bet365

SlipsTips shares a selection ahead of Napoli’s clash with Arsenal in the Champions League on Wednesday night.

Napoli vs Arsenal (Wednesday, 20:00)

Arsenal begin their latest pursuit of Champions League glory with a trip to Napoli on Wednesday night.

The Gunners came within touching distance of lifting the trophy for the first time last season, only to lose to PSG on penalties in the final.

That painful defeat does not appear to have left a lasting mark on Mikel Arteta’s side, who have made an impressive start to the new campaign.

After cruising to a 3-0 victory over Manchester City in the Community Shield, Arsenal won each of their opening three league matches, including Sunday's 2-1 success against Chelsea.

Napoli head into Wednesday night’s contest after squandering a two-goal lead in a 3-2 defeat away at Inter on Saturday.

Arsenal are tempting at the odds on offer, but I am instead going to focus on a player selection that looks to offer good value.

Bruno Guimaraes to be fouled at least twice stands out at 5/6 with bet365.

The Brazilian was an unused substitute against Chelsea, but Arteta is expected to make changes and could restore him to the starting XI in Naples.

Guimaraes is always eager to get on the ball and has established himself as one of the most frequently fouled midfielders around.

He drew an average of 2.71 fouls per Premier League appearance last season and 1.82 per 90 in the Champions League.

The Arsenal midfielder was also fouled multiple times in all three of Brazil’s group-stage matches at the World Cup.

Guimaraes is likely to come up against Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa, who committed multiple fouls against Genoa recently, adding to the appeal of the 5/6 on offer.

Recommended Bet

• Bruno Guimaraes To Be Fouled 2+ Times – 5/6 (bet365)

Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.

We completed the challenge last time out and how route to 1,000 can be found here: MFT 10 – 1000 Betting Challenge: Complete: This is how we did it.

While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.

We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.

We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI. As per our own rules we reset the betting balance back to 100 units on Bet17.

For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.

Bet 1 – Cardiff City vs Stoke City – Tuesday 8^th September at 7:45pm

Cardiff City return home after losing 2-0 at Portsmouth, but their attacking performance was stronger than the result suggests. They generated 1.37 xG, recorded 13 shots inside the box and created two big chances. It was their first failure to score in five Championship matches. Last season at home they found the net in 19 of their 23 home League One fixtures.

Their record at the Cardiff City Stadium supports a response. Cardiff have scored in both home games, averaging 1.33 xG, 6.5 shots on target and 13 attempts inside the penalty area. Those numbers should test a Stoke defence which has struggled away from home.

The Potters have lost both league trips, conceding three times at Southampton and four at Wolves. They have allowed 2.49 xGA, 6.5 shots on target and 12 box attempts per away match, without keeping a clean sheet. Cardiff have also faced no clean sheets across their five opponents, with every league fixture producing at least two goals.

Stoke’s 4-0 win over Charlton Athletic showed their attacking threat, but it does not erase their problems on the road. That victory came at home, where Mark Robins’s side restricted Charlton to 0.61 xG. Their away performances have been far less controlled.

Stoke have now lost nine straight away Championship games, failing to win any of their last 11. Their last away shut out was back in early February.

Adding under seven match goals provides protection against an extreme scoreline. None of the 10 combined league matches involving these sides has produced seven goals. Cardiff’s games average three goals, while Stoke’s average 3.4.

Cardiff’s home chance production and Stoke’s away defensive record support the hosts scoring. The under-seven element has a wide margin, with seven or more goals requiring a major departure from both teams’ results and underlying data.

• Bet: Stoke no clean sheet & under seven match goals
• Odds: 1/5
• Bank: 10 units returns 12

The UEFA Champions League gets underway tonight and Manchester City are odds-on favourites to kick off with a win away to Porto.

Despite having Pep Guardiola at the helm for a decade, City only managed to get their hands on Europe's top prize once during the Catalan's long reign.

Enzo Maresca has now stepped into his shoes and will be looking to get off to a positive start in Europe after winning his first three Premier League games.

Porto vs Manchester City

Porto have flown out of the traps this season on domestic duty, winning six games in a row in league and cup.

They've only conceded once across all those games but have yet to face a big hitter and Manchester City represent a significant step-up in class.

Maresca's side blew Crystal Palace away but failed to convince in their other Premier League games at home to Bournemouth and Coventry.

They should still have too much firepower for Porto, though, and Bet365 make the English side 7/10 favourites. I'm going to add on a goal for Erling Haaland to boost the odds to 6/5.

Manchester City haven't looked secure at the back so far this season, though, with their only clean sheet coming against Coventry thanks to a few fine saves from Gianluigi Donnarumma.

That makes me think we may see goals at both ends tonight and combining BTTS with over 2.5 strikes pays evens.

Club Brugge vs Aston Villa

Aston Villa have dazzled on the European stage under Unai Emery and will be hoping a return to Champions League action in Brugge tonight will spark their season into life.

Emery's side reached the quarter-finals on their last visit to Europe's top table and are back among the elite again after winning the Europa League last season.

But the spine of that side was ripped out in the summer and it has led to a poor Premier League start, with Villa banking just a point from three games.

The new signings should eventually come good though and I fancy the Premier League side tonight at decent odds of 6/4.

They won 3-1 in Belgium two seasons ago when they last faced Brugge in the Champions League and Emery usually delivers in these kind of games.

It should be a close encounter though and with these sides sizing each other up, the half-time draw looks worth a punt at 13/10.

Real Madrid vs Inter Milan

The best game for neutrals in the UEFA Champions League tonight sees Inter Milan head to the San Siro to take on Real Madrid.

Jose Mourinho is back in the Bernabeu dugout and sparks usually fly whenever the Special One is around.

He led Inter to Champions League glory when he was boss at the San Siro in 2010 and one of his former players, Cristian Chivu, is now in charge of the Nerazzurri.

Inter have won three in a row to kick off their Serie A title defence while Real Madrid are reeling from a 1-0 weekend loss at Real Betis.

But Bet365 make Mourinho's men 3/5 favourites tonight, probably because they have Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham in their ranks.

Mbappe is too short for anytime scorer at 4/7 with Bet365 but backing the Frenchman for over 2.5 shots on target is better at 6/5.

Super singles

• Aston Villa to win 6/4 Bet365
• Kylian Mbappe over 2.5 shots on target 6/5 Bet365

Bet builder

• Manchester City to win and Erling Haaland to score 6/5 Bet365

Upcoming match previews and betting tips

• Tue 17:45 Club Brugge vs Aston Villa
• Tue 20:00 Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal
• Tue 20:00 Real Madrid vs Inter Milan
• Tue 20:00 Porto vs Manchester City
• European BTTS Tips: Bavaria the final stop in 7/2 Champions League Treble

Racing tips

Rizzel has picked out some gee-gees for Galway and Goodwood in the Tuesday racing.

• Tuesday’s Racing Tips – Manxman Ready to Relish the Testing Ground

As always, leave your own tips and comments below.

MrFixIt's Big Acca is a confidence-ranked accumulator built to give you control over risk.

Selections are ordered from strongest to weakest based on form, matchup and underlying performance. You decide where to stop. From the third selection onward, the cumulative odds update at every step, allowing you to lock in a sensible acca or keep building towards a bigger return.

This midweek sees me focus on the Champions League, EFL Cup, Championship, Scottish Premiership and Eredivisie.

One list. Multiple exit points. You choose the risk level.

FC Twente are the strongest selection against Telstar after posting a 72% xG ratio across their opening four Eredivisie matches. The hosts have averaged 2.02 xG while allowing only 0.79 xGA, giving them the clearest underlying advantage on the list.

Telstar have lost two of their three games and average 1.40 xG against 2.45 xGA. That leaves the visitors with a 36% xG ratio, almost half Twente's figure. Odds of 2/7 imply a 77.8% chance of a home win. The price is short, but the statistical gap makes Twente the starting point.

Celtic take second position for their trip to St Johnstone after winning all five Scottish Premiership matches. They have scored 13 goals while averaging 3.29 xG and allowing only 0.85 xGA per game.

St Johnstone have lost two of their three away fixtures and hold a 47% xG ratio overall. Celtic have won both of their away games and lead the division with a 79% xG ratio. Odds of 1/2 imply a 66.7% chance of an away victory, making Celtic the second selection.

Arsenal complete the opening treble against Napoli in the Champions League. The Premier League side have won their opening three two domestic matches conceding just once, allowing only 0.27 xGA per game and recording an 85% xG ratio.

Napoli have lost two of their first three Serie A fixtures. Their average of 1.53 xG sits below their 1.86 xGA, leaving them with a 45% xG ratio. Arsenal are available at 4/5, which implies a 55.6% chance of victory. Their stronger early-season data supports the away win.

FC Twente, Celtic & Arsenal all to win at 2/1 with Coral

Chelsea are next for their EFL Cup tie against Leeds United. The Blues have started their Premier League campaign with two victories, scoring seven goals from an average of 2.58 xG.

Leeds remain unbeaten after three league matches, although two ended level. Their 1.47 xG and 1.51 xGA averages leave them with a 49% xG ratio, compared with Chelsea's 65%.

Rotation adds uncertainty to the tie, but Chelsea's attacking output and greater squad depth give them the advantage at Stamford Bridge. Odds of 4/6 imply a 60.0% chance of a home victory. Chelsea to win becomes the fourth selection.

FC Twente, Celtic, Arsenal & Chelsea all to win at 14/1 with Coral

West Ham United travel to Bolton Wanderers with a clear advantage in the underlying numbers. They average 2.18 xG and 1.07 xGA, producing a 67% xG ratio across five Championship fixtures.

Bolton have lost three of their five matches and scored only four goals. Their average of 1.19 xG against 1.83 xGA leaves them with a 39% xG ratio.

West Ham remain unbeaten away from home, drawing both games, while Bolton have won one of their two home fixtures. The overall performance gap supports West Ham at 13/20, a price carrying an implied probability of 60.6%.

FC Twente, Celtic, Arsenal, Chelsea & West Ham all to win at 23/1 with Coral

Bradford City provide the first odds-against selection for their EFL Cup trip to Leyton Orient. Bradford have won three of their opening five League One matches while averaging 1.24 xG and allowing 0.93 xGA.

Orient have scored 10 league goals despite generating only 1.18 xG per game. They have allowed 1.83 xGA and lost both of their home fixtures, leaving them with a 39% xG ratio.

Bradford's 57% xG ratio points to a stronger level of performance than Orient have produced. Odds of 13/10 imply a 43.5% chance of an away win, making Bradford an attractive sixth selection despite the uncertainty attached to cup rotation.

FC Twente, Celtic, Arsenal, Chelsea, West Ham & Bradford all to win at 57/1 with Coral

Norwich City have lost three of their five Championship matches, but their underlying data is stronger than those results suggest. They average 2.03 xG and 1.22 xGA, giving them a 62% xG ratio.

Birmingham City remain unbeaten after five games, although four have ended level. Their average of 1.33 xG and 1.05 xGA gives them a 56% xG ratio, so this is a competitive matchup rather than a straightforward home win.

Norwich's greater attacking output and home advantage earn them seventh position. Odds of 21/20 imply a 48.8% chance of victory, leaving the market unable to make them clear favourites.

FC Twente, Celtic, Arsenal, Chelsea, West Ham, Bradford & Norwich all to win at 114/1 with Coral

Borussia Dortmund are the final and highest-risk selection for their Champions League meeting with Villarreal. Dortmund have won their opening two Bundesliga matches, scoring five goals and averaging 1.73 xG.

Villarreal remain without a victory after four La Liga fixtures, drawing twice and losing twice. Their 63% xG ratio shows they have performed better than those results suggest, which prevents Dortmund from ranking higher.

Dortmund's winning start and home advantage support their inclusion at 4/5. The price implies a 55.6% chance of a home victory, but Villarreal's underlying numbers make this the logical stopping point for anyone unwilling to take the full risk.

FC Twente, Celtic, Arsenal, Chelsea, West Ham, Bradford, Norwich & Borussia Dortmund all to win at 201/1 with Coral

The betting week continues here as Desmond brings us his best goals bets from across the globe, including a Goals Accumulator.

To Score 2+ Goals Tips

Guys, two teams that I like the look of to score 2+ goals this week are Rangers and Celtic.

First up, it is Rangers to score two or more goals against St Mirren in the Scottish Premiership on Wednesday night. Rangers have won five of their last six matches, including a 5-1 win over St Mirren in the Scottish League Cup. St Mirren head to Ibrox after losing two-one at home to Celtic on Saturday.

Next up is Celtic to score at least two goals against St Johnstone on Wednesday night. Celtic have won all five of their Scottish Premiership matches this season, scoring 2+ goals in each of their last four victories. They will be up against a St Johnstone side that are without a clean sheet in five Scottish Premiership games this season.

Going for the usual 3 points double that pays 10/11 with bet365.

Both Teams to Score Double

Other goals bets that I like the look of this week include a 9/5 Both Teams to Score double of Norwich vs Birmingham and Fenerbahce vs Roma.

• Both teams have scored in three of Norwich's five English Championship matches this season, Birmingham have been BTTS in four of their five games.
• BTTS has landed in five of Fenerbahce's last six matches, both teams scored in Roma's win over Atalanta at the weekend.

Over 2.5 Goals Tips

An over 2.5 goals treble of Inter Miami, Bayern Munich and Barcelona 1 point at 1/1.

• There were over 2.5 goals in 12 of Bayern Munich's 14 Champions League matches last season, Bodo/Glimt were over 2.5 in 11 of their 12 games in the Champions League last season.
• Over 2.5 goals has landed in 16 of Chicago Fire's 21 matches in MLS this season, Inter Miami have gone over 2.5 in 17 of their 22 games.
• Three of Barcelona's four matches in La Liga this season have seen over 2.5 goals, Feyenoord have gone over 2.5 in four of their five games in the Eredivisie.

A roll-up of all seven pays 10/1 for half a point and a roll-up of all seven being overs pays 12/1 for half a point.

Good luck with your selections later this week folks.

Desmond.

To Score 2+ Goals Tips

• Rangers
• Celtic
• Double pays 10/11 bet365

Both Teams to Score Tips

• Norwich vs Birmingham
• Fenerbahce vs Roma
• Double pays 9/5 bet365

Over 2.5 Goals Tips

• Chicago Fire vs Inter Miami
• Bayern Munich vs Bodo/Glimt
• Barcelona vs Feyenoord
• Treble pays 1/1 bet365

7 Fold Accumulator

• 7 Fold Acca Pays 10/1 bet365

Saturday delivered a perfect return, with all three selections winning to complete a 3/3 clean sweep.

The fixture list is more restricted this midweek, with the Championship providing the only league action across the EFL. That leaves fewer matches to work with, but there are still several interesting differences between the early results, the underlying data and the prices available.

Our three selections take us to Pride Park, the Cardiff City Stadium and the Racecourse Ground. Derby County face West Bromwich Albion after contrasting weekend results, Stoke City attempt to transfer their impressive home result on Saturday onto the road against Cardiff City, and winless Burnley visit a Wrexham side that has made an encouraging start.

Each selection has been assessed using xG, xGA, xPTS, venue splits and recent chance creation. The aim is to identify where the early scorelines may be disguising stronger or weaker performances underneath

Derby County vs West Bromwich Albion

Derby County return to Pride Park on Wednesday night looking for a response after Saturday’s 3-0 defeat at West Ham, but West Bromwich Albion arrive having restored some stability with a 1-0 victory over Watford. The result market is difficult to separate, making the goals line the more attractive option.

Four of Derby’s five Championship fixtures have contained at least three goals. Their only exception was a 2-0 win at Portsmouth, a result built on two goals from just 0.55 xG rather than sustained attacking control.

The concern is at the other end. Derby have allowed 2.19 xGA per match, the second-worst average in the division, and that rises to 2.63 across their two home appearances. Swansea created 3.00 xG in a 3-0 win here, while Cardiff generated 2.26 during a 2-2 draw.

West Brom have scored in every league game, including during their 3-1 defeat at Middlesbrough. Their away matches have averaged 3.50 goals, with over 2.5 landing on each occasion. A 2.59 away xGA shows that those high totals have not been driven by finishing alone.

My model gives over 2.5 goals a 68% chance, comfortably above the 50% implied by even money. Derby’s vulnerable defence provides the clearest route, while West Brom’s own defensive numbers leave room for the hosts to contribute.

• Best Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 13/14 with Unibet

Cardiff City vs Stoke City

Stoke City travel to the Cardiff City Stadium on Tuesday after producing the weekend’s most emphatic Championship result, beating Charlton Athletic 4-0. Cardiff return home following a 2-0 defeat at Portsmouth, but the scorelines create a misleading contrast when the relevant venue data is examined.

Cardiff were competitive at Fratton Park, generating 1.37 xG from 13 attempts inside the penalty area and two big chances. They failed to convert, but that was their first blank in five league matches rather than evidence of a recurring attacking problem.

Stoke’s victory was supported by 2.14 xG, although it came at home against a Charlton side that created only 0.61. Their away record is far less convincing. They have lost both Championship trips, conceding seven goals against Southampton and Wolves while allowing 2.49 xGA per game.

Cardiff average 1.33 xG at home and are yet to fail to score there. Their two fixtures in Wales have also produced 26 shots inside the box, giving them a platform to test a defence that has struggled badly on the road.

My model gives Cardiff a 63% chance of winning, compared with the 46.3% implied by odds of 116/100. Stoke’s latest result demands some caution, but one strong home performance does not remove the weaknesses shown in their away defeats. Cardiff’s chance production and home advantage make them the selection at an attractive price.

• Best Bet: Cardiff City -0.25AH at 9/10 with Unibet

Wrexham vs Burnley

Burnley arrive at the Racecourse Ground on Tuesday still searching for their first Championship victory, while Wrexham have lost only once across their opening five matches. The market makes the hosts narrow favourites, but the underlying home and away numbers suggest the gap should be wider.

Wrexham followed a 3-0 win at Millwall with a goalless draw at Swansea on Saturday. They allowed only 0.74 xGA in that stalemate and restricted Swansea to three attempts on target, continuing a defensive record that is the best in the division by xGA.

At home, Wrexham have generated 1.65 xG per match while conceding chances worth 1.08. They have scored in both appearances at the Racecourse, collecting a draw against Watford before losing narrowly to Birmingham City.

Burnley’s problems continued with a 2-1 home defeat against Bristol City. The Clarets created only 0.26 xG, managed four shots inside the box and failed to register a big chance. That followed a 1-1 draw with Middlesbrough in which their attacking output reached just 0.68 xG.

Their away record offers little reassurance. Burnley have collected no points on the road, average 1.06 xG and allow 1.77 xGA, with seven goals conceded across defeats at West Brom and Norwich.

My model rates Wrexham at 59%, above the 48.8% implied by 21/20. Burnley have scored in every match, so this is unlikely to be comfortable, but Wrexham’s defensive control and the visitors’ continuing decline make the home win the selection.

• Best Bet: Wrexham -0.25AH at 4/5 with Bet365

After landing back-to-back winning trebles at the weekend, view our Both Teams to Score Tips for this week’s Champions League action.

Our BTTS Acca Tips are based on statistical analysis of recent performances.

Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid (Wednesday, 20:00)

One of the standout fixtures from the opening round of Champions League action takes place at Anfield on Wednesday night as Liverpool entertain Atletico Madrid.

The Reds exited at the quarter-final stage last season, while Atletico went one step further before their European journey ended in the semi-finals.

Much has changed at Anfield since then, with Andoni Iraola now at the helm and the early evidence suggesting that Liverpool could be involved in plenty of high-scoring contests.

They opened their Premier League campaign with successive 2-2 draws against Newcastle and Nottingham Forest before recording a 2-0 victory away at newly promoted Ipswich last time out.

Atletico are also playing with greater attacking freedom these days and are no longer solely reliant on the stubborn defensive approach traditionally associated with Diego Simeone’s side.

A 3-1 triumph away at Sevilla and a 2-2 draw at home to Villarreal have already highlighted that shift this season, making both teams to score an appealing angle at Anfield.

Fenerbahce vs Roma (Thursday, 17:45)

An intriguing Champions League clash is on the cards in Istanbul on Thursday evening as Fenerbahce host Roma at the Chobani Stadium.

The hosts are making their first appearance in the competition proper since the 2008-09 season, while Roma are back at Europe’s top table for the first time since 2018-19.

Fenerbahce had to battle through qualifying to book their place in the league phase, eventually sealing their return with a 3-2 aggregate triumph over Lyon.

Their domestic matches have delivered plenty of goalmouth action this season, with BTTS landing in three of their opening four league games, including their weekend defeat to Besiktas.

Roma should also contribute to a lively contest after winning each of their opening three Serie A fixtures of the season, the latest of which was a dramatic 2-1 victory over Atalanta on Saturday night.

Given the early-season evidence, both teams to score looks well worth siding with in Istanbul. 

Bayern Munich vs Bodo/Glimt (Thursday, 20:00)

Goals should be on the agenda in Bavaria on Thursday night as Bayern Munich welcome Bodo/Glimt to the Allianz Arena in the Champions League.

Both teams are accustomed to overpowering domestic opposition, and their attacking approach regularly produces high-scoring contests.

Bayern should have too much firepower for their Norwegian visitors, but Bodo/Glimt are more than capable of grabbing a consolation goal.

Indeed, the German champions conceded when opening their Bundesliga campaign with a thumping 5-1 victory over Stuttgart.

Both teams also found the net in 12 of Bayern’s 14 Champions League matches last season.

The same bet landed in nine of Bodo/Glimt’s 12 European outings last term, including five of their six assignments away from the Arctic Circle.

Euro BTTS Treble

• Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid
• Fenerbahce vs Roma
• Bayern Munich vs Bodo/Glimt
• Treble pays 7/2 (bet365)

Euro BTTS Bonkers Bet

• Liverpool 2-2 Atletico Madrid – 12/1 (bet365)

SlipsTips shares a Bet Builder ahead of Bolton's clash with West Ham in the English Championship on Tuesday night.

Bolton vs West Ham, Tuesday (20:00)

West Ham will be aiming to maintain their recent resurgence when they travel to Bolton in the English Championship on Tuesday night.

The Hammers failed to win any of their opening three league games following relegation, but emphatic victories over Wolves and Derby suggest they are beginning to find their feet in the second tier.

As for Bolton, they made a respectable start after winning promotion, collecting four points from their opening three matches, but they have since suffered three straight defeats, culminating in a crushing 4-0 loss at Millwall.

Thierry Gale To Be Fouled 1+ Time

Thierry Gale to be fouled at least once forms the first half of a player-based double.

The lively Bolton winger is always keen to run at defenders and regularly draws contact when operating from the left flank. Gale earned his side two free kicks in their opening league game against Preston and also drew a foul during Saturday’s heavy defeat at Millwall.

He averaged 1.33 fouls drawn per game during Bolton’s promotion-winning League One campaign last season. Gale should be one of the Trotters’ main attacking threats on Tuesday night and is likely to receive plenty of close attention from the West Ham defence.

Joel Veltman To Commit 1+ Foul

Joel Veltman to commit at least one foul completes the player-based double and correlates nicely with the opening selection. With the experienced Dutchman likely to be tasked with keeping tabs on Thierry Gale, there is a good chance that both legs could land in the same passage of play.

Veltman joined West Ham during the summer and has never been afraid to get stuck in. He has committed one foul in each of his last two league starts for the Hammers, collecting a yellow card in one of those matches, and he also conceded a free kick during a brief substitute appearance against Portsmouth in the EFL Cup last month.

The versatile defender averaged just under one foul per game for Brighton in the Premier League last season, and his likely duel with the lively Gale makes him a strong candidate to overstep the mark at least once on Tuesday night.

The two selections combine for a 23/20 Bet Builder that looks good value.

Recommended Bet

• Thierry Gale To Be Fouled 1+ Time
• Joel Veltman To Commit 1+ Foul
• Bet Builder – 23/20 (bet365)

Getafe and Celta Vigo have both made poor starts to the new La Liga season so confidence will be low in each camp as they prepare to face off this evening.

Celta Vigo finished sixth last season and Getafe were just behind them in the table as both teams secured European slots.

But only goal difference is keeping Celta Vigo above the drop zone after four games of the new campaign and Getafe aren't faring much better, sitting just a point above tonight's visitors.

Getafe vs Celta Vigo top betting tips

Getafe's start hasn't been as bad as Celta Vigo's given they've only played three games and both their losses came away from home.

They've placed twice at their own stadium in La Liga and the Conference League, winning both times, so could be worth a punt tonight at 29/20 with Bet365.

But Celta Vigo's two points so far have come in 0-0 stalemates on the road and the bookies reckon we'll see another dreary game tonight.

The half-time draw only pays 5/6 at Bet365 while betting against BTTS is even shorter at 4/7 so I'm dipping into the card markets to find some value.

Midfielder Orel Mangala has been booked in his last two outings for Getafe and is 2/1 to pick up another card.

Elche vs Real Sociedad

The other clash in La Liga tonight also sees two sides in the bottom half of the table face off as Real Sociedad visit Elche.

The hosts find themselves sitting second bottom after collecting just a point from their three outings so far.

Real Sociedad are three points better off but have also played a game more so it hasn't been a great start for the Basque side either.

But their two losses came on the road in difficult games against Real Madrid and Real Betis so it's easy to see why Bet365 make them 13/10 favourites tonight.

It ended in a 1-1 draw when Real Sociedad came calling last season and BTTS has also landed in two of Elche's three games so far this season.

That makes me think we could see goals at both ends tonight and combining both teams to score with over 2.5 strikes doubles your money.

Udinese vs Lazio

There pick of tonight's two Serie A matches see Lazio head to Udinese as both sides bid to continue promising starts to the new campaign.

Lazio have won their first two Serie A fixtures by 1-0 scorelines while Udinese have three wins and a draw across their four league and cup games so far.

That suggests tonight's showdown should be keenly contested, especially with the last three meetings ending level.

Another stalemate tonight is priced at 21/10 by Bet365 but I'm playing it safer and going for the half-time draw at evens.

BTTS has failed to land in any of Lazio's three games this term but it has come up in their last six games with Udinese. So there could be some value in backing both teams to find the net tonight at 19/20.

Super singles

• Orel Mangala to be carded 2/1 Bet365
• BTTS and over 2.5 goals in Elche vs Real Sociedad Evens Bet365
• Half-time draw in Udinese vs Lazio Evens Bet365

Upcoming match previews and betting tips

• Mon 20:00 Bromley vs AFC Wimbledon
• Monday’s Serie A betting tips: Expert predictions from Italy’s top flight

Racing tips

A new week of racing gets underway and Rizzel has tips for the meetings at Windsor and Wolverhampton.

• Monday’s Racing Tips – Ecclefechan Can Continue His Progression Into A Class 4

As always, leave your own tips and comments below.

The third round of Serie A fixtures continues on Monday, with two fairly evenly matched games that are by no means easy but offer plenty of opportunities. 

As evening falls, we can look forward to a tough match between Cagliari and Lecce, both of whom need to bounce back from heavy defeats. Later on, we’re in for a classic clash between Udinese and Lazio, who have both made a surprisingly strong start to their seasons.

Below you’ll find our expert tips and predictions for both Serie A matches on Monday.

Today’s Serie A betting tips & predictions

Cagliari vs. Lecce (5:30pm)

Cagliari and Lecce have started the season in a similar fashion, winning their first match and losing their second in Serie A. 

Similarly, both teams have already been knocked out of the Coppa Italia, so they will be focusing entirely on staying in the top flight. This clash, however, is quite difficult to predict, given that neither side is known for a strong defence nor for scoring many goals. 

I’m inclined to expect goals, but I wouldn’t risk it. In my view, it’s quite possible they won’t score at all, but we should see plenty of corners as they try their luck. The bookmakers are offering good odds on over 8.5 corners, and both of their matches last season saw 10 or more.

Cagliari vs. Lecce top betting tip: Over 8.5 corners

Udinese vs. Lazio (7:45pm)

Udinese have made a surprisingly strong start to the season and remain unbeaten in all competitions with three wins and one draw – the latter perhaps being the most telling result, as it came against a strong Como side. Perhaps it is finally time for Udinese to get their act together and have a stronger season. 

Lazio, meanwhile, were knocked out of the Coppa Italia, but in Serie A they have won two out of two, despite the empty stands and all the problems at the club. If the Eagles win again, it will be only the third time in the club’s history that they have won their first three matches in the top flight. 

Udinese and Lazio always produce very closely fought matches, with the last three ending in draws. The last six, meanwhile, have all featured goals at both ends. 

Udinese vs. Lazio top betting tip: BTTS

During this campaign, we’ll be watching quite a few big matches on Mondays, and tomorrow offers no fewer than two La Liga fixtures. 

First up is the clash between Getafe and Celta Vigo, with both teams preparing for their participation in UEFA competitions. Later on, Elche’s defence will face yet another tough test when they host Real Sociedad.

Below, you’ll find our expert tips and predictions for each of Monday’s La Liga matches.

Today’s La Liga betting tips & predictions

Getafe vs. Celta Vigo (6pm)

Getafe and Celta Vigo need to pull themselves together and improve quickly, as after three and four matches, respectively, they are close to the bottom of the table. 

They also have a lot of European matches coming up, so very soon they will face much tougher fixtures. So far, scoring goals seems to be the main problem for both sides, as they have each scored just one goal.

That is precisely why I find it hard to expect a high-scoring match here. It is far too important for both teams to secure a win, so we may see a cautious game with both sides biding their time for the right moment.

Getafe vs. Celta Vigo top betting tip: Under 2.5 goals

Elche vs. Real Sociedad (8:30pm)

It is becoming increasingly clear that Elche are likely to be fighting for survival this season, having failed to beat either of the two newly promoted sides and lost 5–0 to Barcelona.

Real Sociedad got off to a poor start, but are now heading in the right direction and should capitalise on a weak opponent. Their Europa League matches are set to begin very soon, so they need to pick up as many points as possible before their fixture list becomes even tougher.

We’ve already seen quite a few surprises this round, but I can’t see how Elche could beat Real Sociedad here. I reckon they’ll score a goal, but the visitors will find a way to win.

Elche vs. Real Sociedad top betting tip: Real Sociedad to win, Over 2.5 goals

We did it. What started with a 10-unit bet on Argentina to beat Egypt has ended with the MFT 10-1,000 Betting Challenge reaching its target. The final bet took us to Portman Road, where we backed Julio Enciso to be fouled at least once against Liverpool. One foul was all we needed.

It completed a run of 22 winning bets without a single losing selection, although there were a few refunds, one void and several moments when the challenge looked in serious danger.

The aim from the start was simple. Use the data to find short-priced selections we believed had a strong probability of landing, compound the returns and see if we could turn 10 units into 1,000.

Mission accomplished.

It started with Argentina

Bet 1 came at the World Cup, with Argentina backed to beat Egypt at 1/3. The numbers made a strong case.

Argentina were rated 406 Elo points above Egypt, had a 71.2% neutral win probability and were averaging 1.92 xG per game while allowing only 0.54 xGA.

That first winner turned 10 units into 13.33 and gave us the foundation to build from.

The World Cup provided the first six winners, but one of the most important parts of the challenge was never restricting ourselves to one competition.

Once domestic football returned, we followed the data.

Selections came from the Premier League, Championship, League One and League Two, as well as the Scottish Premiership, League of Ireland, Norwegian Eliteserien, Portuguese Primeira Liga, Danish Superliga and Swedish Allsvenskan.

A challenge built on data

Every bet started with the same question: what does the data tell us?

We used xG and xGA, shots, shots on target, big chances, goals, cards, corners, referee numbers, home and away splits and individual player statistics.

My model also played an important role, particularly when assessing goal probabilities and identifying where the underlying numbers supported a selection.That did not always lead us towards the obvious favourite.

The challenge featured match winners, goals, cards, corners, draw no bet, Asian goal lines, Bet Builders and player props.

Sometimes the strongest bet was simply for a team to score. On other occasions, removing the draw or taking an Asian goal line gave us additional protection.

The route was clear. Find the strongest statistical angle and build the bet around it.

We needed some late luck

Going through the entire challenge without a losing bet sounds comfortable. It was anything but. Viking vs Sarpsborg was one of the biggest scares.

We backed over 2.5 goals with my model putting the probability at 68%. Viking had seen at least three goals in all six of their home league matches, while five of Sarpsborg's eight away games had also gone over 2.5.

The match produced 42 shots, 11 shots on target and a huge 5.4 xG. Yet we still needed a 95th-minute penalty to get the third goal.

Wolves against Blackburn was another important moment. We had backed Wolves draw no bet rather than taking them to win. A late penalty rescued the draw and returned our stake.

It was a perfect example of why market selection mattered throughout the challenge. Had we simply backed Wolves to win, the run would have been over.

Norwich then made us wait until the 90th minute for the goal we needed against West Brom.

There was more late drama in Sweden. Over 1.5 goals had landed in 16 of Goteborg's previous 17 league matches, a 94% hit rate, and all eight of their previous home games. We still needed Elfsborg to score in the 90th minute to get us over the line.

The data put us in strong positions. Football made us work for them.

Enciso finishes the job

After starting at the World Cup and travelling through leagues across Europe, the challenge finished at Portman Road. Ipswich hosted Liverpool and our final selection was Julio Enciso to be fouled at least once.

It was another bet driven entirely by the numbers. Enciso had drawn at least one foul in 18 of his previous 19 relevant appearances. Across 1,346 minutes, he had been fouled 33 times, an average of 2.21 per 90. We only needed one.

Enciso drew the foul, Bet 22 landed and the MFT 10-1,000 Betting Challenge was complete.

10 units to more than 1,000

There were refunds. There was a void. There were 90th-minute goals and a 95th-minute penalty. But there was not a single losing selection. More importantly, there was a reason behind every bet.

We did not get from 10 units to more than 1,000 by continually backing the biggest favourite on the coupon. We used the data and my models.  We moved between countries, competitions and betting markets looking for the strongest statistical angle available.

Twenty-two winning bets later, we got there.

10 units. 1,000+ units. Challenge complete.

The betting week starts here as Desmond brings us his best goals bets for Tuesday, including a Goals Accumulator.

To Score 2+ Goals Tips

Guys, two teams that I like the look of to score 2+ goals on Tuesday night are West Ham and Newcastle.

First up is West Ham to score two or more goals away at Bolton on Tuesday night. West Ham have won each of their last two league matches, scoring three and four goals in each of those victories. They are taking on a Bolton team that have lost their last two matches, conceding 2+ goals in each of those defeats.

Next up it's Newcastle to score 2+ goals away at Millwall in the EFL Cup on Tuesday night. Newcastle have scored at least two goals in all four of their matches this season. They will be up against a Millwall side that has conceded two goals or more in two of their last three games.

Going for the usual 3 points double that pays 13/10 with bet365.

Both Teams to Score Double

Other goal bets that I like the look of this week include a 7/4 Both Teams to Score double of Blackburn vs Sheffield United and Millwall vs Newcastle.

• Both teams have scored in four of Blackburn's five English Championship matches this season, Sheffield United have been BTTS in three of their five games.
• BTTS has landed in two of Real Madrid's four matches in La Liga this season, both teams have scored in two of Inter Milan's three games in Serie A.

Over 2.5 Goals Tips

An over 2.5 goals treble of Southampton, NEC Nijmegen and Borussia Dortmund, 1 point at 5/2.

• There have been over 2.5 goals in each of Southampton's two English Championship home matches this season, Swansea have gone over 2.5 in each of their two league games away from home.
• Over 2.5 goals has landed in all four of NEC Nijmegen's league games this season, Excelsior have also seen over 2.5 goals in each of their four Eredivisie matches so far.
• Three of Villarreal's four matches in La Liga this season have produced over 2.5 goals, Borussia Dortmund won 3-2 away at Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga on Saturday.

A roll-up of all seven pays 22/1 for half a point and a roll-up of all seven being overs pays 26/1 for half a point.

Good luck with your selections on Tuesday one and all.

Desmond.

To Score 2+ Goals Tips

• West Ham
• Newcastle
• Double pays 13/10 bet365

Both Teams to Score Tips

• Blackburn vs Sheffield United
• Real Madrid vs Inter
• Double pays 7/4 bet365

Over 2.5 Goals Tips

• Southampton vs Swansea
• NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior
• Villarreal vs Borussia Dortmund
• Treble pays 5/2 bet365

7 Fold Accumulator

• 7 Fold Acca pays 22/1 bet365

MrFixIt's Big Acca is a confidence-ranked accumulator built to give you control over risk.

Selections are ordered from strongest to weakest based on form, matchup and underlying performance. You decide where to stop. From the third selection onward, the cumulative odds update at every step, allowing you to lock in a sensible acca or keep building towards a bigger return.

This Sunday sees me focus on La Liga, Ligue 1, Primeira Liga, the Scottish Premiership and Swiss Super League.

One list. Multiple exit points. You choose the risk level.

Barcelona are the strongest selection on Sunday's list, with my model giving them a 75.6% chance of beating Valencia. The difference is also clear in the projected attacking numbers, with Barcelona rated to produce 2.23 xG compared with only 0.60 for Valencia.

That leaves the hosts with a win probability below 10%, while Barcelona have a considerable advantage in the underlying matchup. Odds of 3/10 imply a 76.9% chance of an away victory, which sits close to my model. There is little value in the price, but the strength of the overall matchup makes Barcelona to win the starting point.

Marseille are next after my model gave them a 62.6% chance of beating Paris FC. Their projected xG advantage is also substantial at 1.72 to 0.62.

Paris FC are rated at only around 12% to win, leaving a clear gap between the two sides. Marseille are 5/6, which implies a 54.5% chance of victory and sits below both versions of my model. Marseille to win takes the second position.

Troyes provide the first big price on the list, despite my model making them strong favourites against Strasbourg. The direct calculation puts the home win at 62.1%.

Their projected xG of 1.71 is also well ahead of Strasbourg's 0.64, while the visitors have only around a 12% chance of winning. Odds of 21/10 imply a home-win probability of only 32.3%, leaving a substantial difference between the market and my model. Troyes to win completes the opening treble.

Barcelona, Marseille & Troyes all to win at 5/1 with Ladbrokes

Hearts have a projected xG advantage of 1.91 to 0.85 against Dundee, with my model giving them a 60.9% chance of taking all three points.

Dundee's win probability sits below 15%, while Hearts are expected to generate more than twice as much xG. Odds of 11/20 imply a 64.5% chance of a home victory, so the price is broadly in line with the stronger version of my model. Hearts to win adds the fourth selection.

Barcelona, Marseille, Troyes & Hearts all to win at 8/1 with Coral

Gil Vicente are rated at 59.5% to beat Academico Viseu, with the Monte Carlo model putting the home win slightly higher at 61.9%. Their projected xG of 1.94 compares favourably with the visitors' 0.93.

Academico Viseu are rated at only 16% to take all three points, giving Gil Vicente a clear advantage in both chance creation and overall win probability. Odds of 10/11 imply a 52.4% chance of a home win. Gil Vicente to win becomes the fifth selection.

Barcelona, Marseille, Troyes, Hearts & Gil Vicente all to win at 21/1 with Coral

Sion's attacking projection earns them a place against Thun, with the hosts expected to generate 2.27 xG compared with 1.37 for the visitors. My model gives Sion a 56.7% chance of winning.

Thun sit at a little over 21% to take all three points, leaving Sion as clear favourites in the matchup. The hosts are priced at 3/4, implying a 57.1% chance of winning, almost exactly in line with my model. Sion to win extends the acca despite there being little difference between the model and market.

Barcelona, Marseille, Troyes, Hearts, Gil Vicente & Sion all to win at 36/1 with Coral

Malaga provide the final and highest-risk selection against Levante. My model makes the hosts 53.1% favourites

The projected xG comparison supports Malaga, who sit at 1.56 compared with only 0.82 for Levante. The visitors have a win probability below 20% in my calculations. Malaga are available at 6/4, implying only a 40.0% chance of victory, leaving a gap of more than 13 percentage points against my model. Malaga to win is worth including as the final selection.

Barcelona, Marseille, Troyes, Hearts, Gil Vicente, Sion & Malaga all to win at 94/1 with Coral

The first blockbuster clash of the new Premier League season takes place this afternoon as Arsenal lock horns with Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium.

The champions have made a perfect start to their title defence and have yet to concede a goal in wins over Coventry City and Aston Villa.

But the Blues have also picked up six points from six under new boss Xabi Alonso and they have the firepower to cause the Gunners a few problems today.

Arsenal vs Chelsea top betting tips

Chelsea have impressed going forward so far but there's still question marks over their defence after conceding five goals across their two Premier League games so far.

That's why Bet365 have Arsenal as 7/10 favourites today and that seems fair enough. You can boost those odds to 20/21 just by adding on over 1.5 goals.

The Gunners probably have the best defence in Europe and keeper David Raya has only needed to make one save so far in their Premier League matches.

But Chelsea have a much more dangerous attack than Coventry and Aston Villa, with Alonso's side averaging over six shots on target a game this term.

That makes me think Raya could have a busier 90 minutes than usual and backing him for just over 2.5 saves pays a healthy 13/8 at Bet365.

Everton vs Manchester United

There has been a lot of negativity surrounding Everton after a farcical end to the transfer window and it will be interesting to see how they respond today against Manchester United.

The late collapse of a move for Monaco's Folarin Balogun has left David Moyes with just one senior centre-forward, Thierno Barry, in his squad until January.

Fans are furious and it has overshadowed a decent start to the new season, with the Toffees unbeaten across three games in league and cup.

The visit of the Red Devils is their biggest test yet, however, and Michael Carrick's side thrashed Ipswich 5-1 in their last outing.

That scoreline was a bit deceiving though and I'd be surprised if we saw a lot of goals today, especially with both meetings last term ending in 1-0 away wins.

We did see a lot of corners in both those games and Everton won 10-1 on that count at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.

That makes over 10.5 match corners worth a look today at 5/4 while over four first-half flag kicks also appeals at 10/11.

Heart of Midlothian vs Dundee

Hearts won the Edinburgh derby in midweek to make it seven games unbeaten and will be looking to build more momentum when Dundee come calling today.

New boss Wouter Vrancken got off to a terrible start as the Jambos were thrashed in Champions League and Europa League qualifying but he got them over the line into the Conference League.

The Belgian now has side playing some lovely stuff and Bet365 make them 1/2 favourites at home to the Dark Blues.

Keeping hold of star striker Claudio Braga is a big boost for Vrancken after the Portuguese striker was linked with several clubs this summer.

Braga has only netted twice this season but is always a threat and he's evens with Bet365 to grab a goal this afternoon.

Super singles

• David Raya over 2.5 saves 13/8 Bet365
• Over 10.5 corners in Everton vs Manchester United 5/4 Bet365
• Claudio Braga anytime scorer Evens Bet365

Upcoming match previews and betting tips

• Sun 12:00 Birmingham City vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
• Sun 14:00 Everton vs Manchester United
• Sun 16:30 Arsenal vs Chelsea
• Sun 19:45 Juventus vs AC Milan

Racing tips

A big weekend of racing comes to a climax today and our main man is here with more top tips.

• Sunday’s Racing Tips – Bay City Roller Can Down Last Year’s Arc Winner at Longchamp

As always, leave your own tips and comments below.