There's a break in the Nations League action today as the Women's Champions League takes centre stage and Chelsea have a tough game on the road in Lyon.

The Blues edged a 1-0 home win over Austria Vienna in their opener and now face a massive step up in class against the eight-time winners.

Lyon reached another final last season, losing to Barecelona, and won every single home game on their march to the showpiece.

Lyon Women vs Chelsea Women

Lyon fired out a statement of intent by thrashing Servette 8-0 on the road in their league phase opener last week and Bet365 make them 2/5 hot favourites tonight.

But Chelsea Women did win 1-0 on their last visit to Lyon in the 2022/23 quarter-finals before knocking the French giants out in a penalty shootout back in London.

They've never lost by more than a single-goal margin in four meetings with the French giants so this could be tighter than the bookies think.

But Lyon still possess superior firepower and they had 31 shots in their opener with Servette. That suggests goals tonight and over 1.5 first-half strikes pays 11/10 at Bet365/.

Paris FC Women vs Arsenal Women

Arsenal Women have made a stuttering start to the new season and could be a little vulnerable away from home against Paris FC tonight.

The Gunners needed a stoppage-time goal to seal a 1-0 win over Danish outsiders HB Koge at home in their Champions League opener.

They've also scored just twice in their first four Women's Super League games and sit down in seventh place after banking five points.

Bet365 still make them 19/50 favourites in France tonight against a Paris FC side who lost 5-2 away to Barcelona in their opener.

But with Arsenal not at their best and struggling in front of goal it could be another frustrating night if they fail to score early.

That makes the half-time draw worth a punt at 7/5 while backing most goals to come in the second half is also decent at 11/10.

Roma Women vs Barcelona Women

Barcelona Women remain the team to beat in the Champions League and they were at their free-scoring best in that 5-2 win over Paris FC last week.

After losing a few star players in the summer, some pundits felt the Catalan giants would struggle to be such a dominant force again.

But they've won five out of five in their domestic league, averaging four goals a game, and hit five against the French side in their Euro opener.

That doesn't bode well for Roma, who started their Champions League campaign with a 0-0 draw away to Belgian side Leuven.

The Italians lost 4-0 at home to Barcelona in the league phase last season so it's no surprise to see them as 22/1 outsiders tonight.

The Catalans are just 1/12 to come out on top, although another win to nil could offer a bit of value at 6/5 after Roma fired blanks in Belgium last week.

Super singles

• Over 1.5 first-half goals in Lyon Women vs Chelsea Women 11/10 Bet365
• Most goals second half in Paris FC Women vs Arsenal Women 11/10 Bet365
• Barcelona Women win to nil 6/5 Bet365

Upcoming match previews and betting tips

• Thu 01:00 Argentina vs Bolivia
• Championship news: Why Swansea and Charlton are overachieving, while Cardiff under-perform

Racing tips

Rizzel bagged another winner on Tuesday and is out to keep his good run going today.

• Wednesday’s Racing Tips – Ina Mina Can Make the Trip from Ireland Worth It

As always, leave your own tips and comments below.

Thursday’s Football Bet of the Day sees me focus on the Nations League, and I’ve highlighted a goals-based selection in one of the fixtures.

⚽️ Wales vs Norway

🇪🇺 Nations League

⏰ Thursday 1 October, 19:45

Wales will look to get their first points of their Nations League campaign as they welcome Norway to the Cardiff City Stadium on Thursday night.

It’s been a tough start in League A Group 4 for Craig Bellamy’s hosts, as they remain pointless and goalless after their first two matches.

The Dragons were beaten 1-0 in Lisbon against reigning Nations League champions Portugal last Thursday, before a Ben Davies own goal and a deflected Gustav Isaksen strike saw them fall to a 2-0 defeat in Copenhagen against Denmark on Sunday.

Following on from their memorable quarter-final run in the World Cup over the summer, Norway opened up their Nations League campaign by edging a five-goal thriller at home to Scandinavian rivals Denmark – helping land last Thursday’s Bet of the Day.

However, Stale Solbakken’s visitors failed to build on that victory, as they lost 1-2 at home to Portugal courtesy of a goal from Milan new boy Goncalo Ramos.

This clash will be the first on home soil for Wales in League A Group 4, whilst this will be Norway’s first venture outside of Oslo.

Interested in why both teams scoring is such a strong angle? Check out our Masterclass on BTTS and sharpen your match-reading game.

Bet of the Day

Both of these nations will be targeting all three points following defeat last Sunday, which should lead to an entertaining encounter.

Norway’s matches are generally high-scoring, with 20 of their last 25 and 25 of their previous 32 matches going over 2.5 Goals, whilst each of their previous 10 and 13 of their past 14 have produced goals at both ends.

Both Teams to Score has paid out in each of Wales’ last five and six of their past seven internationals in front of their supporters, including in 4/5 (80%) in World Cup qualifying – only keeping a clean sheet against minnows Liechtenstein – with four (80%) of those qualifiers also going Over 2.5 Goals.

• Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
• Pays 20/21 (bet365)

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With all four tennis majors for the season now complete, attention turns to the ATP Finals in December, where the top-eight ranked men's players will battle it out for up to $5 million.

Over the next couple of months, the aim for all men's players in and around the world top-16 is to book their place at the event, with the China Open this week offering 500 ranking points on offer for the winner.

Several big names are competing in Beijing, including Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev. Below, we run through the outright winner odds for the tournament and offer our expert betting tips.

China Open betting tips and odds

Outright odds

• Alexander Zverev – 9/4
• Daniil Medvedev – 17/2
• Felix Auger-Aliassime – 17/2
• Alex De Minaur – 10/1
• Learner Tien – 11/1
• Novak Djokovic – 14/1

Betting tips

Alexander Zverev to win the tournament (9/4)

Alexander Zverev has enjoyed the best tournament of his career to date, winning two Grand Slam titles and finishing as the runner-up at Wimbledon.

The German has stepped out of the shadows and arguably muscled his way into a new ‘big three' alongside Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner.

Based on form, Zverev is the outstanding candidate to win the tournament, yet at 9/4, he still represents excellent value.

Novak Djokovic stage of elimination – quarter-finals (11/5)

We are very much in the final stages of Novak Djokovic's illustrious career, even if the great man still harbours ambitions to compete at the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles.

Aside from an impressive run to the semi-finals at Wimbledon, Djokovic has endured a miserable season, which has seen him slip outside the world's top 10 for the first time since July 2018.

His form since the grass court season has been particularly alarming. In two appearances on American hard courts, at Cincinnati and at the US Open, the 24-time Grand Slam champion lost twice, meaning he hasn't won a hard court match since the Australian Open at the beginning of the year.

While we are backing him to win a couple of matches this week, he is scheduled to face Zverev in the quarter-finals, and that will be a bridge too far at this stage of his career.

Alex De Minaur stage of elimination – first round (4/1)

Alex De Minaur has been all over the place over the last six months, with the Australian reportedly lacking confidence in his own game.

Since Wimbledon, De Minaur has failed to make it past the third round of any tournament, which is hardly the form of a top-10 player.

In the opening round in China, he is set to face Marino Navone, a player who has proven in recent times that he is capable of raising his game against elite opposition. The Argentinian defeated Djokovic and Berrettini at the US Open, and he has also enjoyed victories over Felix Auger-Aliassime and Casper Ruud this year.

View our expert's Goals Accumulator Tips for Thursday, which include Total Team Goals tips and a Both Teams to Score selection.

Our Goals Acca Tips are based on statistical analysis of recent performances.

Denmark To Score 1+ (Thursday, 19:45)

Portugal will look to maintain their perfect start to the Nations League with a win away to Denmark on Thursday night.

Veteran boss Jorge Jesus has guided the Selecao to back-to-back victories over Wales and Norway.

However, Portugal failed to keep a clean sheet in Oslo on Sunday and could struggle to keep Denmark at bay in Copenhagen.

The Danes beat Wales 2-0 and also scored twice in last weekend’s defeat away to Norway, so they look well placed to strike again.

Greece To Score 1+ (Thursday, 19:45)

Greece head into Thursday’s clash with the Netherlands full of confidence after winning their opening two Nations League games.

Ivan Jovanovic’s side followed up a 2-1 win in Serbia by grinding out a 1-0 victory away to Germany on Sunday.

The Dutch have also made a solid start, taking four points from their games against Germany and Serbia.

However, six matches without a clean sheet suggest the visitors could struggle to shut out the in-form Greeks.

Republic of Ireland to Score 1+ (Thursday, 19:45)

Austria will look to make it three wins from three in the Nations League when they travel to Dublin to face the Republic of Ireland on Thursday night.

Ralf Rangnick’s side are setting the early pace in their section after opening with 3-1 wins over Israel and Kosovo.

However, they conceded in both victories and could struggle to keep a clean sheet at the Aviva.

The Boys in Green scored three times when sweeping aside Israel on Sunday, so they look well placed to make the net bulge at least once.

Wales vs Norway – Both Teams to Score (Thursday, 19:45)

There tends to be no shortage of goalmouth action when Norway are involved, making both teams to score an attractive option for Thursday night’s Nations League trip to Wales.

Stale Solbakken’s side opened their campaign with a thrilling 3-2 win over Denmark before losing 2-1 at home to Portugal.

It was a similar story at the World Cup earlier this summer, with both teams scoring in all six of Norway’s matches.

That trend has plenty of scope to continue in Cardiff, as BTTS has also landed in each of Wales’s last five home games in all competitions.

Goals Accumulator Tips

• Denmark To Score 1+
• Greece To Score 1+
• Republic of Ireland to Score 1+
• Wales vs Norway – Both Teams to Score
• £10 on today's Acca returns £44.44 at bet365

SlipsTips shares a selection ahead of Greece’s clash with the Netherlands in the Nations League on Thursday night.

Greece vs Netherlands (Thursday, 19:45)

Greece will look to maintain their impressive start to the Nations League when they welcome the Netherlands to the Toumba Stadium on Thursday night.

Ivan Jovanovic’s side opened with a 2-1 win away to Serbia before claiming an eye-catching 1-0 victory in Germany on Sunday.

As for the Netherlands, they sit second in the section after drawing 1-1 with Germany and edging out Serbia 2-1 last time out.

The Dutch are 23/20 favourites, but those odds hold little appeal given how well Greece have started.

There could be value in siding with the hosts at 23/10 or getting them on side on the Asian handicap, though I prefer a player-based selection.

The evens (1/1) available with Paddy Power on Christos Tzolis to be fouled at least twice looks well worthy of support.

The Greece winger regularly attracts close attention from opposition defenders and was fouled three times against Germany on Sunday.

Notably, he was brought down seven times across Greece’s two World Cup qualifiers against Denmark and five times in a June friendly against Italy.

Since joining Arsenal, Tzolis has been fouled at least twice in three of his first five Premier League appearances, including three times against Chelsea.

His likely battle with Denzel Dumfries adds to the appeal of this selection.

The Dutch right-back has committed multiple fouls in four of his last nine appearances for the Netherlands, including four against Morocco at the World Cup.

With all that in mind, Tzolis looks worth backing to be fouled at least twice at even money.

Recommended Bet

• Christos Tzolis To Be Fouled 2+ Times – 1/1 (Paddy Power)

Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.

While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.

We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.

We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI.

For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.

We came unstuck on Saturday as Plymouth & Burton only produced one goal. We were very unfortunate. 3.91 match xG with five big chances and 22 shots. It was the right bet but luck was not with us.

Bet 1 – Yeovil Town v Worthing – Tuesday 29^th September at 7:45pm

Yeovil Town and Worthing meet at Huish Park on Tuesday night, with their home and away records producing one of the strongest goals angles on the National League card. Over 1.5 goals is priced too short, so moving to the over 2 goal line improves the return while retaining protection if the match contains exactly two goals.

A game producing three or more goals delivers a winning bet. Exactly two goals returns the stake, while fewer than two results in a loss. This structure offers more protection than over 2.5 goals without accepting the shorter over 1.5 price.

The venue data points towards chances at both ends. Yeovil average 1.50 xG and allow 1.40 xGA across five home matches. Worthing produce 1.35 xG away but concede 2.06 xGA. Combining those figures gives the fixture a projected total of 3.16 goals, the highest among the midweek National League games.

Every Yeovil home fixture has cleared 2.5 goals. Their five matches at Huish Park have produced 15 goals, with Yeovil scoring eight and conceding seven. Worthing’s four away games have also all contained at least three goals, with both teams scoring in each one.

Saturday’s performances offered further support for Worthing’s attacking threat. They beat Halifax Town 2-1 after recording 17 shots and seven on target. Worthing controlled the match and allowed Halifax only three attempts.

Yeovil won 1-0 at Kidderminster Harriers, but the scoreline was more convincing than their attacking performance. Joe Powell scored after 74 minutes from Yeovil’s only shot on target, while Kidderminster tested the goalkeeper four times.

Yeovil have scored 1.90 goals per game from 1.22 xG overall, leaving them 0.68 above expectation. Worthing are also scoring 0.33 goals per match above xG. Those finishing figures make both teams to score and over 2.5 goals less secure.

The over 2 goal line does not require both sides to score. A 2-0 or 1-1 result returns the stake, while the repeated venue trends provide a strong route to three goals and a winning selection.

• Bet: Over 2 goal line  
• Odds: 2/9
• Bank: 10.0 units returns 12.10

Following on from Sunday’s winner in Pennsylvania, Tuesday’s Football Bet of the Day sees me head to the National League, and I’ve highlighted a goals-based selection on one of the fixtures.

⚽️ Hartlepool United vs Harrogate Town

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 National League

⏰ Tuesday 29 September, 19:45

Harrogate will look to strengthen their position in the National League playoff places as they travel to Victoria Park to take on struggling Hartlepool United.

Harrogate bounced back from back-to-back defeats at home to third-placed Fylde and away at leaders Boreham Wood by cruising to a 4-1 victory at home to Eastleigh at the weekend.

Simon Weaver’s men have now picked up 19 points across their opening 10 matches since relegation to the National League (W6-D1-L3) – with that record changing to W6-D1-L0) when excluding meetings with the current top-five – leaving them in fourth position.

Hartlepool began the season with back-to-back victories, but things have gone from bad to worse for The Pools.

The hosts have gone on to lose seven of their next eight league outings – including each of their last four – leaving them in 21st position in the National League table, a point adrift of safety.

Think you’ve found odds that look too good to be true? Explore our Value Betting guide and learn when a price is genuinely favourable.

Bet of the Day

Harrogate have scored an impressive 24 goals across their opening 10 matches since relegation to the English fifth tier, with seven (29%) of those coming across their four road trips.

Simon Weaver’s visitors have found the back of the net in each of their opening 10 league outings, scoring 2+ goals in all seven of their clashes against teams positioned in sixth and below – and look well-equipped to bag another brace against a Hartlepool side that has lost seven of their last eight league outings, shipping 2+ goals in each of their past four.

• Harrogate Town to Score Over 1.5 Goals
• Pays 4/5 (bet365)

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England remain something of an enigma under Thomas Tuchel so it's hard to know what to expect when they take on the Czech Republic away from home in the Nations League tonight.

It looked like the Three Lions would bounce back from their painful World Cup semi-final exit by claiming Spain's scalp when they came from behind to lead at Wembley on Saturday.

But Harry Kane's missed penalty proved pivotal as defensive mistakes allowed the world champions to claim a 3-2 win.

Czech Republic vs England top betting tips

The Czechs also got off to a losing start in their Nations League opener, crashing to a 2-1 home defeat against Croatia in Santi Denia's first game in charge.

They flopped at the World Cup as well so it's easy to see why Bet365 make the Czech Republic 7/1 outsiders tonight, with England 4/11 favourites.

Tuchel's side played well in spell against Spain and should have too much quality in attack for limited opposition.

I'm going to combine a win for the Three Lions with over 1.5 strikes and a goal for Kane, which pays evens in a bet builder.

Veteran Czech full-back Vladimir Coufal could have a tough night up against England's tricky wingers and is 11/4 to repeat the card he picked up against Croatia.

Scotland vs Switzerland

New Scotland boss Sebastien Pocognoli kicked off his reign with a decent draw in Slovenia and will now be looking for a win on his Hampden debut when Switzerland come calling.

After a dreary first half on Saturday, the Scots looked good in Ljubljana and were only denied a win thanks to a superb display from Jan Oblak.

But the Swiss are the strongest and most settled team in Nations League Group B so they look justified 17/20 favourites at Bet365.

They kicked off with a 3-0 win in North Macedonia and could get some joy against Scotland's new three-man central defence.

So I'm going for a Switzerland win with over 1.5 goals at 27/20 with Bet365, who also offer a tempting 12/5 on the visitors scoring in each half.

Spain vs Croatia

Spain's incredible unbeaten run rumbles on and it would be a major surprise if they slipped up at home to Croatia in the Nations League tonight.

The European and world champions have now gone 39 games without a defeat, a record for international football, after Saturday's comeback win at Wembley.

They now face a Croatia side who claimed a 2-1 win away to the Czechs in their Nations League opener, getting Slaven Bilic's return off to a superb start.

But the Croats are 11/1 rank outsiders tonight with Bet365, who make Luis de la Fuente's side 1/5 jollies.

This fixture hasn't produced a lot of corners, with the last three meetings all seeing no more than six flag kicks. That makes under 8.5 corners a decent option tonight, a bet that pays 11/10 at Bet365.

Mateo Kovacic will try to knock Spain's midfield off their stride and is 5/6 to commit over 1.5 fouls.

Super singles

• Vladimir Coufal to be carded 11/4 Bet365
• Switzerland to score in each half 12/5 Bet365
• Under 8.5 corners in Spain vs Croatia 11/10 Bet365

Bet builder

• England win with over 1.5 goals and Harry Kane anytime scorer Evens Bet365

Upcoming match previews and betting tips

• Tue 19:45 Scotland vs Switzerland
• Tue 19:45 Spain vs Croatia
• Tue 19:45 Czech Republic vs England
• MrFixIt’s Big Acca: Choose your own risk up to 10 game, 75/1 Midweek acca

Racing tips

Rizzel landed two Monday winners and is out to follow it up with more joy today.

• Tuesday’s Racing Tips – South Shore Can Ride the Wave to Victory

As always, leave your own tips and comments below.

MrFixIt’s Big Acca is a confidence-ranked accumulator built to give you control over risk.

Selections are ordered from strongest to weakest based on form, matchup, and underlying performance. You decide where to stop. From the third selection onward, the cumulative odds update at every step, allowing you to lock in a sensible acca or keep building toward a bigger return.

This midweek sees selections from both the Nations League and the English National League.

One list. Multiple exit points. You choose the risk level.

Spain will look to make it two wins from two in the Nations League on Tuesday night as they welcome Croatia to the Ramon Sanchez-Pizuan.

La Roja have struck 2+ goals in 17 of their previous 21 competitive internationals, and look well-equipped to bag another double at home against a Croatia backline that has recorded a solitary shutout across their last 11 matches.

Goals look on the cards in Prague on Tuesday night as Czechia host England in Nations League A Group 3.

Over 2.5 Goals has paid out in eight of the Three Lions’ previous 10 internationals – including in each of their previous six – whilst eight of Czechia’s last nine encounters have seen three or more goals.

Goals look guaranteed at Huish Park on Tuesday night as Yeovil Town entertain newly-promoted Worthing FC in the National League.

Worthing’s opening 10 matches since promotion to the English fifth tier have averaged an eye-catching 3.50 goals per game, with Over 2.5 Goals landing in eight (80%) of them – including in all four (100%) on the road – whilst six of Yeovil’s last eight league encounters have delivered at least three strikes.

Bet: Spain to Score Over 1.5 Goals & Czechia vs England & Yeovil Town vs Worthing FC – Over 2.5 Goals at 21/10 at bet365

Goals also look likely in Lancashire on Tuesday night as AFC Fylde host Carlisle United in the National League.

Fylde’s opening 10 contests in the National League this term have averaged an impressive 3.40 goals per game, with Both Teams to Score banking in eight (80%) of them, whilst 9/10 (90%) of Carlisle’s league outings have delivered goals at both ends.

Bet: Spain to Score Over 1.5 Goals, AFC Fylde vs Carlisle United – Both Teams to Score & Czechia vs England & Yeovil Town vs Worthing FC – Over 2.5 Goals at 33/10 at bet365

Goals also look on the cards in Gloucestershire on Tuesday night as Forest Green entertain Wealdstone in the National League.

Forest Green’s opening 10 National League fixtures this campaign have averaged 3.30 goals per game, with Over 2.5 Goals paying out in seven (70%) of them – including in all five (100%) on home soil – whilst four of Wealdstone’s last five league outings have seen three or more goals.

Bet: Spain to Score Over 1.5 Goals, AFC Fylde vs Carlisle United – Both Teams to Score & Czechia vs England, Yeovil Town vs Worthing FC & Forest Green vs Wealdstone – Over 2.5 Goals at 11/2 at bet365

Two nations that have made unbeaten starts in Nations League A Group 2 meet at the Toumba Stadium on Thursday night as Greece host the Netherlands in a fixture that appeals to me for goals.

Both Teams to Score has been a winning selection in each of the Dutch’s last seven and nine of their past 10 internationals, whilst five of the Greeks’ last eight competitive contests have produced goals at both ends.

Bet: Spain to Score Over 1.5 Goals, AFC Fylde vs Carlisle United & Greece vs Netherlands – Both Teams to Score & Czechia vs England, Yeovil Town vs Worthing FC & Forest Green vs Wealdstone – Over 2.5 Goals at 10/1 at bet365

Portugal will look to maintain their 100% record in Nations League A Group 4 on Thursday night as they travel to Copenhagen to take on Denmark in another fixture that appeals to me for goals.

Both Teams to Score has paid out in five of Denmark’s last seven competitive matches, whilst both teams got on the scoresheet in Portugal’s win in Oslo against Norway on Sunday.

Bet: Spain to Score Over 1.5 Goals, AFC Fylde vs Carlisle United, Greece vs Netherlands & Denmark vs Portugal – Both Teams to Score & Czechia vs England, Yeovil Town vs Worthing FC & Forest Green vs Wealdstone – Over 2.5 Goals at 16/1 at bet365

Norway will look to return to winning ways on Thursday night as they travel to Cardiff to take on pointless Wales in the other fixture in League A Group 4.

Stale Solbakken’s visitors have found the back of the net in each of their previous 17 competitive clashes – scoring 2+ goals in 13 (76%) of them – and face a Wales defence that has kept just one clean sheet across their last 11 matches, with that coming against Liechtenstein.

Bet: Spain & Norway to Score Over 1.5 Goals, AFC Fylde vs Carlisle United, Greece vs Netherlands & Denmark vs Portugal – Both Teams to Score & Czechia vs England, Yeovil Town vs Worthing FC & Forest Green vs Wealdstone – Over 2.5 Goals at 25/1 at bet365

Goals look on the cards at the Silverlake Stadium on Wednesday night as Eastleigh host Southend United in the National League.

Southend’s opening 10 matches in the English fifth tier this term have averaged an eye-catching 4.10 goals per game, with Both Teams to Score landing in nine (90%) of them – including in each of their past eight – whilst five of Eastleigh’s last six and 7/10 (70%) overall in the league this season have produced goals at both ends.

Bet: Spain & Norway to Score Over 1.5 Goals, AFC Fylde vs Carlisle United, Greece vs Netherlands, Denmark vs Portugal & Eastleigh vs Southend United – Both Teams to Score & Czechia vs England, Yeovil Town vs Worthing FC & Forest Green vs Wealdstone – Over 2.5 Goals at 41/1 at bet365

Harrogate will look to strengthen their position in the National League playoff places as they travel to Victoria Park to take on struggling Hartlepool United.

Simon Weaver’s visitors have found the back of the net in each of their opening 10 league outings, scoring 2+ goals in all seven of their clashes against teams positioned in sixth and below – and look well-equipped to bag another brace against a Hartlepool side that has lost seven of their last eight league outings, shipping 2+ goals in each of their past four.

Bet: Spain, Norway & Harrogate Town to Score Over 1.5 Goals, AFC Fylde vs Carlisle United, Greece vs Netherlands, Denmark vs Portugal & Eastleigh vs Southend United – Both Teams to Score & Czechia vs England, Yeovil Town vs Worthing FC & Forest Green vs Wealdstone – Over 2.5 Goals at 75/1 at bet365

The Championship table is beginning to take shape after seven or eight matches, but league position does not always provide an accurate measure of performance. A team might sit near the top after converting chances at an unusually high rate. Another might be struggling despite consistently creating better opportunities than its opponents.

We have compared actual points with expected points and measured goals against xG. Open-play and set-piece figures show how teams are creating and conceding chances, while shots, efforts on target, attempts inside the box and big chances provide further context.

Swansea City lead the division with 17 points, but their expected total is 11.78. They have conceded six goals from 10.36 xGA, creating a defensive overperformance of more than four goals. Swansea do limit opponents to 2.8 shots on target per game, so their defensive record is not based entirely on good fortune. Their results still provide a stronger picture than the overall quality of chances faced.

Charlton Athletic are another significant overachiever. Their 12 points exceed 7.41 xPTS despite averaging only 9.6 shots and 0.78 xG per game. They face 16.9 shots per match and have been outperformed across most attacking measures. Their current top-half position looks difficult to sustain without a major improvement in chance creation.

Cardiff City are at the opposite end of the scale. They have collected seven points from 14.12 xPTS and scored 10 goals from 16.63 xG. Cardiff average 18.5 shots, 12.6 attempts inside the box and 6.6 shots on target. Their 1.51 open-play xG per game ranks third in the Championship. The results hide one of the division’s most productive attacks.

Queens Park Rangers have also received less attacking reward than expected. They have scored 10 goals from 14.81 xG while averaging 17.2 shots and 11.4 attempts inside the box. Their 1.54 open-play xG ranks second behind West Ham United. Queens Park Rangers have 13 points compared with 13.76 xPTS, but improved finishing would turn strong performances into more comfortable results.

West Ham’s position is supported by the data. Their 15 points closely match 14.82 xPTS, while their 1.58 open-play xG is the highest figure in the division. They also create 4.38 big chances per game and allow only 1.38. The main weakness comes from set pieces, where West Ham concede 0.66 xG per match.

Stoke City have scored 13 goals from 8.03 xG, the largest attacking overperformance in the Championship. They create only 1.2 big chances per game and have an expected total of 9.31 points compared with 13 collected.

Lincoln City lead the division for set-piece xG at 0.80 per game but have scored seven goals from 12.58 overall xG. Their dead-ball threat has not produced the expected return.

Preston North End have four points from 10.66 xPTS. Their attack has scored eight times from 10.51 xG, while their defence has conceded 15 from 11.71 xGA. Poor outcomes at both ends have pushed them towards the bottom.

Burnley have also collected four points. They allow 3.38 big chances per match and have conceded 17 goals from 12.97 xGA. Their defensive process is weak, although the number of goals conceded still exceeds expectation.

Sheffield United have the division’s worst open-play defence at 1.35 xGA per game. They concede 16.5 shots and 11.8 attempts inside the box, showing their defensive problems extend beyond finishing variance.

Derby County allow 10.4 shots inside the box and 5.6 efforts on target per game. They also share the worst set-piece xGA figure with West Ham.

Southampton have scored 19 goals from 14.26 xG. Their attack is performing well, but five goals of overperformance have strengthened their results. The deduction explains their official position, while finishing efficiency explains part of their 14-point return on the pitch.

The National League column enters the latest midweek round with an 8.49% ROI after 30 bets this season. Tuesday’s card offers three fixtures supported by clear differences in home and away performance. Yeovil Town welcome a Worthing side whose travels have produced chances and goals at both ends. Woking return to Kingfield after scoring five at Carlisle United, but Solihull Moors arrive with underlying attacking figures stronger than their results suggest.

The early kickoff at Meadow Park provides a different angle. Boreham Wood have combined the division’s second-highest scoring average with its strongest underlying defence. Kidderminster Harriers make the trip after another match in which their attacking output failed to produce a goal.

Recent scorelines form only part of the assessment. Home and away xG splits, shot data, finishing performance and defensive regression have shaped this week’s shortlist. One fixture has the highest projected goal total on the card, while another presents the largest venue-based xGD gap.

Here are our three best bets from the midweek National League schedule.

Yeovil Town v Worthing

Yeovil Town return to Huish Park after collecting three points at Kidderminster Harriers, although the performance was less convincing than the result. Joe Powell scored the only goal after 74 minutes, with Yeovil producing four shots and placing one on target. Worthing arrive after beating Halifax Town 2-1, controlling the shot count 17-3 and recording seven efforts on target.

The latest results point in different directions, but the wider home and away data support goals. Yeovil average 1.50 xG and allow 1.40 xGA at home. Worthing generate 1.35 xG on their travels while conceding 2.06 xGA. Blending those figures gives this fixture a projected total of 3.16 goals, the highest on the midweek National League card.

Every Yeovil home match has produced over 2.5 goals. Both teams have scored and at least three goals have been recorded in all four Worthing away fixtures. Yeovil have scored eight and conceded seven across five home games, while Worthing have shown enough attacking threat to test them.

Finishing performance is the main reservation. Yeovil have scored 1.90 goals per game from 1.22 xG overall, leaving them 0.68 above expectation. Their latest win also came from their only shot on target. Worthing are exceeding xG by 0.33 goals per match, but Saturday's volume supports their current output.

Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 8/11 is backed by the venue splits and repeated scoring pattern, rather than Yeovil's latest narrow victory.

• Best bet: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 8/11 with Bet365

Boreham Wood v Kidderminster Harriers

Meadow Park hosts a meeting between the division's strongest underlying defence and a Kidderminster Harriers side struggling to create chances away. Boreham Wood strengthened their position at the top with a 3-0 victory at Solihull Moors, while Kidderminster suffered a 1-0 home defeat against Yeovil Town.

Saturday's performances increased the gap between the teams. Boreham Wood restricted Solihull to two shots and one on target, with Callum Whitfield scoring twice before Tom Bird added the third. Kidderminster recorded nine attempts and four on target against Yeovil, but failed to score while allowing the visitors to win with their only effort on target.

Boreham Wood rank first for xGD at +0.64, producing 1.69 xG and allowing 1.05 xGA per game. Their home record is stronger at 2.06 xG and 1.21 xGA, giving them a +0.85 xGD at Meadow Park. Kidderminster average only 0.93 xG away and concede 1.78 xGA, producing a -0.84 away difference.

Boreham Wood average 2.60 goals per match and have scored three or more in each of their last three games. Kidderminster have scored 1.30 per game overall, but their away chance creation ranks among the weakest in the division.

Boreham Wood are outperforming xG by 0.91 goals per game, so their finishing rate deserves caution. The handicap offers protection against a narrow result. A one-goal home victory returns the stake, while a win by two or more lands the bet.

• Best bet: Boreham Wood -1 Asian handicap at 3/4 with Bet365

Woking v Solihull Moors

Woking return home after a 5-2 victory at Carlisle United. John Marquis completed a hat-trick, including two penalties, as Woking placed 12 of their 14 shots on target. Solihull Moors travel after a 3-0 home defeat against Boreham Wood in which they managed only two attempts and one on target.

Those performances create concern over Solihull's contribution, but their away numbers offer a stronger case. They average 1.51 xG on their travels and have scored in every away match. Both teams have found the net in all four, while three have produced at least three goals.

Woking average 1.52 xG and concede 0.99 xGA at Kingfield. Both teams have scored in four of their five home fixtures, although only three have cleared 2.5 goals. Across the season, Woking generate 1.56 xG per game and Solihull produce 1.47, giving both attacks enough underlying output to contribute.

Solihull's defensive record remains the main driver. They allow 1.69 xGA and concede 2.60 actual goals per match. Their attack has moved in the opposite direction, scoring nine times despite their chance quality pointing towards almost 15 goals. Improved finishing would support this market.

Woking's 12 shots on target at Carlisle are unlikely to be repeated, while Solihull's latest display was poor. The selection rests on the broader venue sample. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 4/5 fits the away pattern and Solihull's weak defensive process.

• Best bet: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 4/5 with Bet365

The betting week continues here as Desmond brings us his best goals bets from this midweek, including a Goals Accumulator.

To Score 2+ Goals Tips

Guys, two teams that I like the look of to score 2+ goals this week are Albania and Slovakia.

First up, it is Albania to score two or more goals against San Marino on Tuesday night. Albania opened their Nations League campaign with a 2-0 victory over Belarus. They will be taking on a San Marino side that were hammered 7-0 by Finland on Saturday.

Next up is Slovakia to score 2+ goals against Kazakhstan. Slovakia have scored two goals or more in three of their last five home matches. They are taking on a Kazakhstan team that have conceded 2+ goals in three of their last five away games.

Going for the usual 3 points double that pays 3/4 with bet365.

Both Teams to Score Double

Other goal bets that I like the look of this week include a 9/4 Both Teams to Score double of Yeovil vs Worthing and Bulgaria vs Estonia.

• Both teams have scored in eight of Yeovil's 10 matches in the English National League this season and likewise in eight of Worthing's 10 league games so far.
• BTTS has landed in six of Bulgaria's last eight home games, both teams have scored in six of Estonia's last seven Nations League matches.

Over 2.5 Goals Tips

An over 2.5 goals treble of England, Spain and Fylde, 1 point at 5/2.

• There have been over 2.5 goals in six of England's last seven matches, five of the Czech Republic's last seven games have produced over 2.5 goals.
• Spain opened up their Nations League campaign with a 3-2 win over England, Croatia started with a 2-1 win over the Czech Republic.
• Over 2.5 goals has landed in eight of Fylde's 10 National League matches this season, Carlisle have gone over 2.5 in six of their 10 games.

A roll-up of all seven pays 19/1 for half a point and a roll-up of all seven being overs pays 31/1 for half a point.

Good luck with your midweek selections guys.

Desmond.

To Score 2+ Goals Tips

• Albania
• Slovakia
• Double pays 3/4 bet365

Both Teams to Score Tips

• Yeovil vs Worthing
• Bulgaria vs Estonia
• Double pays 9/4 bet365

Over 2.5 Goals Tips

• Czech Republic vs England
• Spain vs Croatia
• Fylde vs Carlisle
• Treble pays 5/2 bet365

7 Fold Accumulator

• 7 Fold Acca pays 19/1 bet365

After three winning trebles in succession, view our Both Teams to Score Tips for this week’s Nations League action.

Our BTTS Acca Tips are based on statistical analysis of recent performances.

Denmark vs Portugal (Thursday, 19:45)

Denmark and Portugal will both look to build on their weekend victories when they square off in the Nations League on Thursday night.

After falling to a 3-2 defeat away to Norway in their opening group game, the Danes bounced back with a 2-0 win over Wales on Sunday.

Portugal have also beaten Wales, winning 1-0 before claiming an eye-catching 2-1 victory away to Norway on Sunday.

While Portugal come into this clash as odds-on favourites, they could struggle to keep a clean sheet in the Danish capital.

Both teams scored in Portugal’s win over Norway last time out, while they also conceded against DR Congo and Croatia at the World Cup.

With BTTS also landing in three of Denmark’s last five matches, there is plenty of appeal in siding with the same selection at Parken.

Greece vs Netherlands (Thursday, 19:45)

Greece will be looking to tighten their grip on top spot in Nations League Group A2 when they host the Netherlands on Thursday night.

The Greeks have caused a bit of a stir in their opening two games, moving top of the section with eye-catching away wins over Serbia and Germany.

Both teams scored in the first of those victories, and a repeat could be worth siding with when Greece face the Netherlands.

The Dutch have taken four points from their opening two games, drawing 1-1 with Germany before claiming a 2-1 win away at Serbia.

That means BTTS has now landed in nine of the Netherlands’ last ten matches across all competitions, so all the signs point towards a repeat in Thessaloniki.

Wales vs Norway (Thursday, 19:45)

Wales will hope a return to the Cardiff City Stadium helps them get off the mark in the Nations League when they host Norway on Thursday night.

Craig Bellamy’s side have lost their opening two matches away to Portugal and Denmark, failing to score in either game.

Norway also come into this clash off the back of a defeat, having lost 2-1 at home to Portugal on Sunday after opening their campaign with a 3-2 win over Denmark.

Notably, both teams have scored in each of Norway’s last ten matches across all competitions.

Wales should pose more of an attacking threat on home soil, where BTTS has landed in each of their last five games.

With that in mind, both teams to score looks worth siding with in the Welsh capital.

Euro BTTS Treble

• Denmark vs Portugal
• Greece vs Netherlands
• Wales vs Norway
• Treble pays 7/2 (bet365)

Euro BTTS Bonkers Bet

• Greece Win & BTTS – 5/1 (bet365)

SlipsTips shares a Bet Builder ahead of Scotland’s clash with Switzerland in the Nations League on Tuesday night.

Scotland vs Switzerland, Tuesday (19:45)

Scotland return to Hampden on Tuesday night for their first home game under Sebastian Pocognoli, with Switzerland the visitors in the Nations League.

The Scots began the Belgian’s reign with a 0-0 draw away at Slovenia on Saturday, while Switzerland cruised to a 3-0 win away at North Macedonia.

I’ve already covered this clash in a separate match preview, but I’m now turning my attention to a two-leg Bet Builder.

Lewis Ferguson To Commit 2+ Fouls

For the first half of what is a player-based double, I’m backing Lewis Ferguson to commit a minimum of two fouls.

The tough-tackling Scotland midfielder is known for his combative streak, which was on show during Saturday’s stalemate with Slovenia when he committed no fewer than four fouls.

That was no one-off, either. Ferguson committed multiple fouls in two of his three outings at the World Cup and was penalised at least twice in each of his five appearances during qualifying.

He has also overstepped the mark at least twice in each of his five Serie A starts for Bologna this season. With Ferguson potentially tasked with keeping close tabs on Johan Manzambi, he looks a prime candidate to commit another two fouls on Tuesday night.

John McGinn To Be Fouled 2+ Times

I’m going to bundle that up with John McGinn to be fouled at least twice.

The Scotland midfielder is the very definition of a foul magnet, as he showed during Saturday’s stalemate with Slovenia when he was brought down on no fewer than six occasions.

McGinn was also fouled 2+ times in each of his three World Cup appearances, including four times against Brazil. Looking further back, he won multiple free kicks for Scotland in each of his final four appearances during World Cup qualifying.

His domestic numbers only add to the argument. McGinn has been fouled two or more times in four of his five Premier League appearances for Aston Villa this season, and the same was true in Villa’s Champions League victory away at Club Brugge.

He could find himself up against Switzerland’s Remo Freuler, whose tough-tackling approach regularly puts him on the referee’s radar.

Combining the two selections gives us a Bet Builder double that looks good value at evens.

Recommended Bet

• Lewis Ferguson To Commit 2+ Fouls
• John McGinn To Be Fouled 2+ Times
• Bet Builder – 1/1 (Sky Bet)

Belgium and France both kicked off their UEFA Nations League campaigns with victories so the stage is set for an intriguing showdown tonight as they face off in Brussels.

Zinedine Zidane's first game in charge of Les Bleus saw them edge a 1-0 victory away to Turkey, with Kylian Mbappe netting the winner.

But the Real Madrid star then went off injured and that will give Belgium even more cause for optimism as they bid to build on an excellent 2-0 win away to Italy.

Belgium vs France top betting tips

It will be interesting to see how the French get on without Mbappe but Bet365 still make them odds-on favourites tonight at 17/20.

That's probably because Zidane has plenty of firepower in reserve, with Desire Doue or Bradley Barcola most likely to step into their skipper's shoes.

Ousmane Dembele will have to shoulder most of the goalscoring burden and the PSG star is 5/4 for anytime scorer tonight.

Belgium managed eight shots on target against Italy and also have plenty of attacking talent so we should see action at both ends.

Combining BTTS and over 2.5 goals only pays 8/11 but there's more value in backing keepers Senne Lammens and Mike Maignan to make over 2.5 saves each at 6/4.

They were both busy last time out, with Lammens making six saves to deny Italy and Maignan keeping out the Turks three times.

Turkey vs Italy

Roberto Mancini's return as Italy boss didn't go to plan last Friday and he will be looking to make amends when they take on Turkey in Istanbul tonight.

The man who led the Azzurri to glory at Euro 2020 faces a tough job lifting spirits after they failed to qualify for yet another World Cup.

Losing 2-0 at home to Belgium was a poor start but Mancini's side at least carved out plenty of chances, with 21 attempts at goal and six shots at target.

Turkey also drew a blank in their Nations League opener at home to France but they should get a bit more joy against an Italian defence that allowed Belgium to have eight efforts on target.

Combining BTTS and over 2.5 goals in this one pays evens and that looks worth a punt as both sides need a win to get off the mark.

Both teams have plenty of fiery characters and it could be a busy night for the officials. Combining over 4.5 cards with both teams receiving two or more cards pays 11/10 at Bet365.

Sweden vs Poland

Sweden have been underachievers in recent years but their talented squad could finally find a bit of consistency in this Nations League campaign.

The Swedes kicked off with a 2-1 home win over Romania last Friday and now face a Polish side who could only draw 0-0 with Bosnia in Warsaw.

The Poles were favourites to top Group B4 before a ball was kicked but that has changed since the opening round of fixtures and Sweden now lead that market at 6/5.

Graham Potter's men look worth a punt at that price as it's likely to shorten if they come out on top tonight.

Sweden are 11/10 for a win on home soil against the Poles and that looks good value given they boast more firepower up front.

Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres both netted in the win over Romania but the Liverpool man has been ruled out of this one through injury.

Gyokeres will now be the main man and the Arsenal striker is 7/5 to grab another goal.

Super singles

• BTTS and over 2.5 goals in Turkey vs Italy Evens Bet365
• Sweden to win 11/10 Bet365

Bet builder

• Senne Lammens and Mike Maignan each to make over 2.5 saves 6/4 Bet365

Upcoming match previews and betting tips

• Mon 19:45 Belgium vs France
• Mon 19:45 Turkey vs Italy

Racing tips

Rizzel's off to Hamilton today and has picked out two horses to watch.

• Monday’s Racing Tips – El Matador Can Prove He Is Ahead Of The Handicapper

As always, leave your own tips and comments below.

The betting weekend continues here as Desmond brings us his best goals bets for Sunday, including a Goals Accumulator.

To Score 2+ Goals Tips

Guys, two teams that I like the look of to score 2+ goals on Sunday are Netherlands and Tottenham Women.

First up is the Netherlands to score two or more goals away at Serbia in the Nations League. The Netherlands have scored 2+ goals in four of their last six matches. They are taking on a Serbia side that has conceded two goals or more in five of their last seven games.

Next up is Tottenham Women to score 2+ goals against Aston Villa in the WSL. Tottenham have won two of their opening three league games of the season, scoring three and seven goals in those two victories. They will be up against an Aston Villa side that has yet to keep a clean sheet in three league games this season, conceding four in a defeat to Man City.

Going for the usual 3 points double that pays 6/5 with bet365.

Both Teams to Score Double

Other goals bets that I like the look of on Sunday include a 8/5 Both Teams to Score double of Denmark vs Wales and Norway vs Portugal.

• Both teams have scored in five of Denmark's last six matches and likewise in five of Wales' last six games.
• BTTS has landed in each of Norway's last nine matches, both teams scored in Portugal's games with DR Congo and Croatia at the World Cup.

Over 2.5 Goals Tips

An over 2.5 goals treble of Austria, Germany and Inter Miami, 1 point at 3/1.

• Four of Austria's last six matches have produced over 2.5 goals, Kosovo have gone over 2.5 in three of their last five games.
• Over 2.5 goals has landed in four of Germany's last six matches, Greece opened up their Nations League campaign with a two-one win away at Serbia.
• There has been over 2.5 goals in 18 of Columbus Crew's 26 matches in MLS this season, 20 of Inter Miami's games have produced over 2.5 goals.

A roll-up of all seven pays 21/1 for 0.5 pts and a roll-up of all seven being overs pays 20/1 for 0.5 pts.

Good luck with your selections on Sunday one and all.

Desmond.

To Score 2+ Goals Tips

• Netherlands
• Tottenham Women
• Double pays 6/5 bet365

Both Teams to Score Tips

• Denmark vs Wales
• Norway vs Portugal
• Double pays 8/5 bet365

Over 2.5 Goals Tips

• Austria vs Kosovo
• Germany vs Greece
• Columbus Crew vs Inter Miami
• Treble pays 3/1 bet365

7 Fold Accumulator

• 7 Fold Acca Pays 21/1 bet365

There's another Nations League cracker tonight as Norway host Portugal in Oslo, with top spot in Group A4 up for grabs.

Both teams kicked off their campaigns with victories on Thursday, as the Norwegians beat Denmark 3-2 in a thriller while Portugal edged out Wales 1-0 in Lisbon.

They now face off at the Ulleval Stadium, with Norway seeking an eighth consecutive victory at home in competitive action.

Norway vs Portugal top betting tips

The Portuguese have a squad blessed with talent but they flattered to deceive under Roberto Martinez and that theme continued in Jorge Jesus' first match at the helm.

Despite dominating against the Welsh, they lacked a cutting edge up front and almost ended up dropping two points when the Dragons blew a great chance late on.

Norway, on the other hand, have deadly Erling Haaland up front and he made it 64 goals in 54 caps with a double against the Danes.

The Manchester City star could prove the difference in what should be a tight game, particularly if the Portuguese persist in fuelling Cristiano Ronaldo's ego by picking him to lead their line at 41.

Bet365 price the home win at 31/20 tonight and that looks worth a punt based on Norway's winning run in competitive internationals in Oslo.

Portugal won 10 corners on their own against Wales so there could be some value in backing over nine flag kicks tonight at 11/8 with Bet365.

Germany vs Greece

Jurgen Klopp got his Germany reign off to a decent start in Amsterdam and will now be looking to follow that Nations League point up with a win back on home soil against Greece.

It looked like the former Liverpool boss was going to kick off with a memorable win against Germany's bitter rivals but the Dutch scored in stoppage time to seal a 1-1 draw.

Klopp has named two different 22-man squads for this international window but the second string won't take over until the final two fixtures.

That's why Bet365 make the Germans 2/5 hot favourites but a talented Greek side won't be pushovers after coming from behind to win 2-1 away to Serbia in their opener.

Greece could be worth a flutter at 12/5 to win either half tonight but it's probably safer betting on action at both ends.

Combining BTTS and over 2.5 goals pays 20/21 at Bet365 while German keeper Marc-Andre Ter Stegen is a tempting 13/8 to make over 2.5 saves.

Greece managed 10 shots on target in their clash with the Serbs, while Ter Stegen had to make nine saves in that draw with the Dutch.

Serbia vs Netherlands

The Dutch may have pinched a point against Germany in midweek but new boss Xavi has plenty of problems heading into his second game in charge away to Serbia.

Skipper Virgil van Dijk has come under fire in his homeland and it doesn't look like a happy camp so the trip to Belgrade could be a potential banana skin.

The good news for Xavi is the Serbs aren't in great shape themselves after losing 2-1 to Greece and they look like a team in decline.

Bet365 make the Netherlands 2/5 hot favourites today so that makes it tricky finding a bit of value.

Liverpool winger Cody Gakpo usually steps up for his country and that late equaliser against Germany took his tally to 25 in 55 caps.

He's 6/5 to add to that tally tonight but I'm more drawn to the 11/10 on offer for Gakpo to have over 1.5 efforts on target.

Super singles

• Norway to win 31/20 Bet365
• Marc-Andre Ter Stegen over 2.5 saves 13/8 Bet365
• Gody Gakpo over 1.5 shots on target 11/10 Bet365

Upcoming match previews and betting tips

• Sun 17:00 Denmark vs Wales
• Sun 19:45 Germany vs Greece
• Sun 19:45 Norway vs Portugal

Racing tips

Rizzel's concentrating on the Curragh today and has picked out two horses at 4/1.

• Sunday’s Racing Tips – Royal Bay Cen Ready to Reign on the Track

As always, leave your own tips and comments below.

Sunday’s Football Bet of the Day sees me head to the MLS, and I’ve highlighted a goals-based selection in one of the fixtures.

⚽️ Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City

🇺🇸 MLS

⏰ Sunday 27 September, 00:30

Goals look on the cards at Subaru Park on Saturday night as in-form Philadelphia Union entertain Orlando City in an all-Eastern Conference match-up.

Ryan Richter’s visitors have scored 50 goals across their opening 26 encounters in the MLS this campaign, with 32 (64%) of them coming across their last 11 matches.

The Union have found the back of the net in each of their past 15 MLS encounters – remarkably scoring 2+ in eight of their past nine and 10 of their previous 12 – and will be confident of continuing their scintillating form in front of goal against an Orlando defence that has conceded an incredible 43 goals across their opening 13 road trips, shipping 2+ goals in 11 (85%) of them.

Martin Perelman’s visitors have scored 46 goals across their opening 26 fixtures in the MLS this campaign, with 23 (50%) of them coming on their travels.

The Lions have found the back of the net in each of their last 14 and 17 of their past 18 matches in the MLS, scoring 2+ goals in 12 (67%) of them – including in each of their previous six and eight of their last nine on their travels – and will look to continue their excellent form in front of goal against a Union backline that has kept just four clean sheets across their past 15 MLS encounters.

Interested in why both teams scoring is such a strong angle? Check out our Masterclass on BTTS and sharpen your match-reading game.

Bet of the Day

Philadelphia’s opening 26 MLS contests this term have averaged 3.54 goals per game, with Over 3.5 Goals landing in seven of their past nine and 10 of their previous 14.

Orlando’s opening 13 MLS matches on the road have averaged a staggering 5.08 goals per game, with Over 3.5 Goals paying out in 11 (85%) of them.

These two clubs played out a seven-goal thriller in the reverse fixture in Florida in the middle of May, and I’m expecting another high-scoring encounter with both of these in-form attacks contributing.

• Both Teams to Score & Over 3.5 Goals
• Pays 20/23 (bet365)

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Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.

Our run finally came to an end last time as Chelsea failed to collect a card against Brentford. We had won 27 bets without a losing selection across the two challenges, but now we reset.

While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.

We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.

We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI. As per our own rules we reset the betting balance back to 100 units on Bet17.

For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.

Morocco beat Gabon last night as we move to bet 3. This time we are staying in the UK and League One.

Bet 3 – Plymouth Argyle vs Burton Albion – Saturday 26^th September at 3pm

This fixture has a strong case for over 1.5 goals, with every league match involving either side producing at least two goals this season.

Plymouth’s seven fixtures have contained 24 goals, an average of 3.43 per match. They have scored 14, including 10 across their previous three games. Their results during this run were a 3-2 win at Doncaster Rovers, a 3-0 home victory over Barnsley and a 4-2 success at Blackpool.

All three matches at Home Park have cleared 1.5 goals. Plymouth have scored six times and conceded three, while recording 3.55 xG and allowing 3.12 xGA. Those figures produce an average of 2.22 expected goals per home game.

Burton’s record offers further support. Their seven league matches have produced 24 goals, with six finishing over 2.5. They remain without a clean sheet and have conceded 12 times.

Each of Burton’s three away games has contained at least three goals. They won 2-1 at Leicester City before losing 2-1 at Notts County and 3-0 at Oxford United. Their away matches have averaged 2.28 combined xG, despite Burton generating only 0.59 xG per trip.

Plymouth provide the main route to two goals. They have scored in every home match, while Burton have conceded on every league appearance. A 2-0 Plymouth win is enough, with Burton’s defensive record also leaving space for both sides to contribute.

Over 1.5 goals is strongly supported by the results, venue splits and underlying numbers.

• Bet: Over 1.5 match goals
• Odds: 1/5
• Bank: 13.32 units returns 15.98

Following on from Thursday's winner in Oslo, Saturday’s Football Bet of the Day sees me head to League Two, and I’ve highlighted a goals-based selection in one of the fixtures.

⚽️ Swindon Town vs Accrington Stanley

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 League Two

⏰ Saturday 26 September, 15:00

Swindon Town will look to maintain their 100% home record this season as they welcome poor-travelling Accrington Stanley to the County Ground this afternoon.

Swindon’s miserable away record continued last weekend, as they lost 1-0 away at Salford City.

Ian Holloway’s hosts have picked up a solitary point on their travels this season, losing each of their last three – all without scoring.

However, it’s a different story at home, with the Robins winning all three in front of their supporters, scoring eight goals in the process.

Accrington come into this clash just a point and a place outside the relegation zone following a goalless draw at home to fellow strugglers Newport County.

Whilst that draw preserved their unbeaten home record this season in the league (W1-D3-L0), they too have struggled on their travels, losing each of their opening three road trips.

Think you’ve found odds that look too good to be true? Explore our Value Betting guide and learn when a price is genuinely favourable.

Bet of the Day

As alluded to, Swindon have a perfect home record in League Two this season, with the Robins winning all three of their home clashes.

Ian Holloway’s hosts have scored 2+ goals on each occasion, and that trend looks likely to continue against an Accrington backline that has shipped multiple goals in six of their opening seven league outings this season – including in all three away from home.

• Swindon Town to Score Over 1.5 Goals
• Pays 1/1 (bet365)

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