The first round of fixtures in the EFL Championship comes to a thrilling climax tonight as Cardiff City host Wrexham in a Welsh derby.

It's the first time these clubs have shared the same division in 25 years and the Bluebirds will be looking for a statement win after winning promotion last season.

But Wrexham will be equally desperate to show they're now top dog in Wales after making a remarkable rise through the EFL pyramid under their Hollywood owners.

Cardiff City vs Wrexham top betting tips

These sides met in the EFL Cup last season and it was Cardiff who came out on top with a 2-1 win at the Racecourse Ground.

They now have home advantage for the first derby of the new campaign and Bet365 make them favourites at 7/5, with Wrexham 9/5 for a win in the Welsh capital.

This one should be fiercely fought and the half-time draw is always a good option in a derby between well-matched teams. It pays 13/10 with Bet365 tonight.

Yousef Salech netted 15 times last term for the Bluebirds and hit a double last week in their 3-2 EFL Cup win over Swindon.

His confidence will be up for the derby and the Dane is 13/10 with Bet365 for another strike tonight. He's also a tempting 5/4 for over 1.5 efforts on target.

Deportivo La Coruna vs Elche

Deportivo La Coruna are back in La Liga after a four-year absence and will be desperate to get off to a winning start when they host Elche tonight.

Super Depor were kings of Spain in season 1999/2000 and reached the Champions League semis four years later but they've suffered a dramatic fall from grace.

Fans will now be hoping they're back on the up after winning promotion as runners-up in the second tier last term.

Taking on Elche at home is a kind first fixture and I fancy Deportivo to win against a side who could only finish 15th in La Liga last term, a point above the drop zone.

Bet365 make the home side favourites tonight but the price is still decent at 13/10.

With the Riazor crowd behind them, Deportivo La Coruna should have most of the pressure and backing them at -1 in the corner handicap also appeals at evens.

Casa Pia vs Benfica

Benfica dropped two points in their Liga Portugal opener last weekend and can ill afford another slip when they visit Casa Pia tonight.

Former Fulham boss Marco Silva has taken over from Jose Mourinho at the Stadium of Light but it has been a mixed bag so far.

The Eagles have thrashed St Galen and Hearts at home in Europe but they failed to win either of the away legs and also had that 2-2 domestic draw with Academico de Viseu.

But Bet365 make them 2/9 hot favourites tonight against a Casa Pia side who only stayed in the top flight after winning a relegation play-off.

They did manage to hold Benfica to a couple of draws last term but kicked off the new campaign with a 1-0 loss at Maritimo.

I've a feeling Silva's side will be too strong and combining the away win with BTTS pays 2/1. That bet appeals as Benfica have conceded in four of their five games so far.

Super singles

• Yousef Salech over 1.5 shots on target 5/4 Bet365
• Deportivo La Coruna -1 corner handicap Evens Bet365
• Benfica win and BTTS 2/1 Bet365

Upcoming match previews and betting tips

• Mon 20:00 Cardiff City vs Wrexham
• Desmond’s Goals Tips: BTTS, To Score 2, Over 2.5 Goals and 32/1 Goals Acca Tips

Racing tips

Rizzel is off to Windsor today as he looks to make a winning start to a new week of racing.

• Monday’s Racing Tips – Ray Mon Dough Looks Set to Cash Out

As always, leave your own tips and comments below.

The betting week starts here as Desmond brings us his best goals bets from across Europe, including a Goals Accumulator.

To Score 2+ Goals Tips

Guys, two teams that I like the look of to score 2+ goals this week are Atletico Madrid and Jagiellonia Białystok.

First up it is Atletico Madrid to score two or more goals against Malaga on Wednesday night. Atletico Madrid scored 2+ goals in 11 of their 19 La Liga home games last season. They will be up against a Malaga team that has conceded at least two goals in all five of their pre-season friendly fixtures.

Next up is Jagiellonia Bialystok to score at least two goals against Iberia 1999 in the Europa League on Thursday night. Jagiellonia Bialystok defeated Rangers 2-1 in their last Europa League home game earlier this month. They are taking on an Iberia 1999 team that conceded four goals against Torpedo Kutaisi in the Georgian Premier League on Saturday.

Going for the usual 3 points double that pays 6/5 with bet365.

Both Teams to Score Double

Other goals bets that I like the look of this week include a 2/1 Both Teams to Score double of Celtic vs LASK Linz and Fenerbahce vs Lyon.

• Both teams scored in Celtic's recent Scottish Premiership win over Kilmarnock, BTTS landed in LASK Linz's win over Ried at the weekend.
• BTTS landed in Fenerbahce's 2-1 defeat away at Genselbirligi in the Turkish Super Lig at the weekend, both teams scored in Lyon's loss to Sparta Prague in the first leg of their third round qualifier.

Over 2.5 Goals Tips

An over 2.5 goals treble of Bodo/Glimt, Hearts and Rangers, 1 point at 7/2.

• Over 2.5 goals has landed in each of NEC Nimegen's last three matches, Bodo Glimt have gone over 2.5 in each of their last six games.
• Four of Hearts’ last five matches have produced over 2.5 goals, seven of Rapid Vienna’s last nine matches have featured over 2.5 goals.
• There have been over 2.5 goals in three of Rangers’ last four matches, Jablonec were over 2.5 in their win over RFS last Thursday.

A roll-up of all seven pays 32/1 for 0.5 pts and a roll-up of all seven being overs pays 46/1 for 0.5pts.

Good luck with your selections on this week guys.

Desmond.

To Score 2+ Goals Tips

• Atletico Madrid
• Jagiellonia Bialystok
• Double pays 6/5 bet365

Both Teams to Score Tips

• Celtic vs LASK Linz
• Fenerbahce vs Lyon
• Double pays 2/1 bet365

Over 2.5 Goals Tips

• NEC Nimegen vs Bodo/Glimt
• Hearts vs Rapid Vienna
• Rangers Jablonec
• Treble pays 7/2 bet365

7 Fold Accumulator

• 7 Fold Acca Pays 32/1 bet365

Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.

While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.

We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.

We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI.

For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.

The games appear to be playing with us now. After a very late Wolves goal on Friday evening, we were made to wait until the 90^th minute for Norwich to finally score against WBA.

Bet 11 – Lyngby v FC Midtjylland – Sunday 16th August at 1pm

This fixture stacks up well for over 2 goals based on both last season's scoring records and the early numbers from this campaign.

Lyngby were reliable scorers during their promotion season, failing to score in only two of 16 home games and two of 16 away games. They have carried some of that threat into the new season, scoring twice against both FC Copenhagen and AGF, with their only blank coming at Randers.

Midtjylland have scored in both of their opening matches, beating Sonderjyske 3-2 before a 2-1 win over AC Horsens. The concern is at the other end. They have already allowed 21 shots, 16 from inside the box, six on target and four big chances.

The overall chance volume is the strongest part of the case. Lyngby's three matches have averaged 3.99 combined xG, producing 86 shots, 57 efforts from inside the box and 23 big chances.

Neither side has kept a clean sheet this season, while both have shown enough attacking threat to contribute. With exactly two goals returning the stake, the line offers useful protection.

• Bet: Over 2 Goal Line
• Odds: 2/9
• 100.32 units returns 122.39

It's the traditional curtain raiser to the new top-flight season in England today as Arsenal lock horns with Manchester City in the Community Shield.

The Gunners finally ended their long wait for a Premier League title last term as they ruled the roost for the first time since their Invincibles campaign in 2003/24.

And they will be looking to throw down the gauntlet today with Manchester City kicking off a new campaign without Pep Guardiola for the first time in a decade.

Arsenal vs Manchester City top betting tips

Manchester City came out on top in the head-to-head with Arsenal last season, although the Gunners ended up getting the prize both clubs craved most.

Mikel Arteta's side will now be out to start their own era of dominance and Bet365 make them 4/5 favourites to get their hands on the Community Shield.

They have a more settled side and have recruited well so I fancy Arsenal to edge it today and backing them for a win inside 90 minutes boots the odds to 8/5.

Skipper Martin Odegaard impressed at the World Cup for Norway and the Gunners star is a tempting 21/10 with Bet365 for a goal or assist today.

Rangers vs St Mirren

New Rangers boss Derek McInnes finds himself under pressure just four games into his reign and needs a win when St Mirren come calling in the League Cup today.

The former Hearts and Aberdeen gaffer has yet to claim a victory since taking the reins and crashed out of the Europa League qualifiers to Jagiellonia Bialystok on Thursday night.

If Rangers also bow out of the League Cup at Ibrox to St Mirren it will leave McInnes facing even more scrutiny from a disgruntled fan base.

The Buddies have started the SPFL Premiership campaign with two wins and are also holders of the League Cup after shocking Celtic in last season's final.

But Bet365 make them 7/2 outsiders to reach the quarter-finals, with Rangers just 2/7 to progress.

St Mirren will have a go so this should be a decent spectacle and over 1.5 first-half goals could pay off at 6/5 with Bet365.

McInnes' side have won 17 corners across their two domestic outings so far and that's another market worth looking at.

Over 6.5 home corners pays 10/11 with Bet365, who also offer 20/21 on Rangers -3 in the corner handicap.

Heart of Midlothian vs Inverness Caledonian Thistle

It has been a tough start to the season for Wouter Vrancken at Hearts but his side are now showing signs of turning a corner and they should be too strong for Inverness in the League Cup today.

The Jambos were thumped 6-0 on aggregate by Sturm Graz in the Champions League qualifiers then also lost 6-1 away to Benfica in their quest to reach the Europa League.

But they held the Portuguese giants to a 1-1 draw in the Tynecastle return and that came off the back of an impressive 4-0 win over Dundee United in the SPFL Premiership.

Vrancken has Hearts playing much more progressive football than they did under McInnes and we should see a few goals today against Championship opposition.

Backing Heart of Midlothian at -1 in the handicap pays just 8/11 at Bet365 but the odds increase to 13/8 if you bet on them winning both halves.

Winger Calvin Miller scored a penalty in that rout of United and the former Falkirk star is 8/5 for another goal today.

Super singles

• Arsenal win in 90 minutes 8/5 Bet365
• Rangers -3 corner handicap 20/21 Bet365
• Hearts to win both halves 13/8 Bet365

Upcoming match previews and betting tips

• Sun 13:30 Watford vs Southampton
• Sun 15:00 Arsenal vs Manchester City
• Sun 16:00 Rangers vs St Mirren
• Sun 16:00 Burnley vs West Ham Utd
• Sun 19:45 Lens vs PSG
• Sunday’s La Liga betting tips: Expert predictions from Spain’s top flight

Racing tips

Rizzel's here with another double dose of top tips as the weekend racing comes to a climax.

• Sunday’s Racing Tips – Precise Ready to Get It Just Right in France
• Sunday’s Lucky 15 Tips – Selections from Pontefract,Tramore and Southwell

As always, leave your own tips and comments below.

MrFixIt’s Big Acca is a confidence-ranked accumulator built to give you control over risk.

Selections are ordered from strongest to weakest based on form, matchup, and underlying performance. You decide where to stop. From the third selection onward, the cumulative odds update at every step, allowing you to lock in a sensible acca or keep building toward a bigger return.

This Sunday sees me highlight selections from the UK and across Europe, as well as the MLS.

One list. Multiple exit points. You choose the risk level.

Goals look guaranteed in the Icelandic capital on Sunday evening as second-placed KR entertain fourth-placed Breidablik in the Icelandic top flight.

KR’s opening 18 league outings this campaign have averaged a staggering 5.72 goals per game, with Over 2.5 Goals landing in 16 (89%) of them, whilst 12 of Breidablik’s last 15 league outings have gone Over 2.5 Goals.

Entertainment looks likely at Soldier Field on Sunday night as the Chicago Fire entertain the Portland Timbers in a cross-conference clash.

The Fire’s opening 17 MLS encounters this campaign have averaged 3.24 goals per game, with Over 2.5 Goals banking in 13 (76%) of them – including in nine of their last 10 – whilst Seven of the Timbers’ last eight MLS contests have gone Over 2.5 Goals.

Goals look on the cards at Yankee Stadium on Sunday evening as the New York City FC entertain the Philadelphia Union in an all-Eastern Conference clash.

The Union’s opening nine road trips in MLS this term have averaged a whopping 4.33 goals per game, with Over 2.5 Goals landing in seven of the past eight, whilst 7/10 (70%) of NYCFC’s home clashes in the MLS this season have seen three or more goals.

Bet: KR vs Breidablik, Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers & New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union – Over 2.5 Goals at 31/20 at bet365

Goals are also guaranteed at the Gjemselund Stadion on Sunday afternoon as third-placed Kongsvinger entertain leaders Haugesund.

Haugesund’s opening 17 matches since relegation to the Norwegian second tier have averaged a whopping 5.18 goals per game, with Over 3.5 Goals paying out in 13 (76%) of them – including in nine of their last 10 – whilst each of Kongsvinger’s last five at home have gone Over 3.5 Goals.

Bet: KR vs Breidablik, Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers & New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union – Over 2.5 Goals & Kongsvinger vs Haugesund – Over 3.5 Goals at 3/1 at bet365

Two clubs separated by a solitary point in the Allsvenskan table meet at the Tele2 Arena on Sunday afternoon as Djurgarden entertain AIK in a fixture that appeals to me for goals.

Djurgarden’s opening eight league outings in front of their supporters this campaign have averaged an eye-catching 3.88 goals per game, with Over 2.5 Goals landing in six (75%) of them – including in each of their last five – whilst six of AIK’s have broken the Over 2.5 Goals barrier.

Bet: KR vs Breidablik, Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers, New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union & Djurgarden vs AIK – Over 2.5 Goals & Kongsvinger vs Haugesund – Over 3.5 Goals at 5/1 at bet365

La Liga action returns to the Estadio El Sardinero for the first time in 14 years on Sunday afternoon as Segunda champions Racing Santander host Villarreal in what promises to be an entertaining encounter.

Racing Santander’s 42 Segunda fixtures last season averaged a league-high 3.60 goals per game, with Over 2.5 Goals landing in 30 (71%) of them – including in 17/21 (81%) of their matches in front of their supporters – whilst five of Villarreal’s final six La Liga fixtures last campaign saw Over 2.5 Goals payout.

Bet: KR vs Breidablik, Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers, New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union, Djurgarden vs AIK & Racing Santander vs Villarreal – Over 2.5 Goals & Kongsvinger vs Haugesund – Over 3.5 Goals at 19/2 at bet365

Rangers will look to bounce back from their Europa League exit on Thursday night as they welcome St Mirren to Ibrox in the last-16 of the Scottish League Cup.

The Teddy Bears are short-priced favourites to progress, but Both Teams to Score has landed in each of their previous 12 matches in all competitions – and there’s every chance that trend continues against their in-form visitors.

Bet: Rangers vs St Mirren – Both Teams to Score, KR vs Breidablik, Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers, New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union, Djurgarden vs AIK & Racing Santander vs Villarreal – Over 2.5 Goals & Kongsvinger vs Haugesund – Over 3.5 Goals at 18/1 at bet365

Goals could be on the cards at the Guldfageln Arena on Sunday afternoon as Kalmar entertain Hammarby.

Both Teams to Score has paid out in five of Kalmar’s last seven Allsvenskan fixtures in front of their supporters – as well as in each of their past four across all venues – whilst each of Hammarby’s last three on the road have yielded goals at both ends.

Bet: Rangers vs St Mirren & Kalmar vs Hammarby – Both Teams to Score, KR vs Breidablik, Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers, New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union, Djurgarden vs AIK & Racing Santander vs Villarreal – Over 2.5 Goals & Kongsvinger vs Haugesund – Over 3.5 Goals at 30/1 at bet365

Premier League champions Arsenal take on FA Cup winners Manchester City in the Community Shield in Cardiff on Sunday afternoon.

Interestingly, a common theme of these matches in recent seasons is the number that have gone to a penalty shootout, with each of the last three and six of the previous nine editions going straight to spot kicks – and there’s every chance that trend continues at the Millennium on Sunday.

Bet: Rangers vs St Mirren & Kalmar vs Hammarby – Both Teams to Score, KR vs Breidablik, Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers, New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union, Djurgarden vs AIK & Racing Santander vs Villarreal – Over 2.5 Goals, Kongsvinger vs Haugesund – Over 3.5 Goals & Arsenal vs Manchester City – Draw at 101/1 at bet365

I have spent last season tracking every Premier League match through my own model, logging xG, xPTS, shots and many underlying metrics, for and against, home and away, across all 20 clubs.

Now the season is over, I have gone back through the data and compared it with the actual final tables, overall, home and away, to find where the underlying numbers told a different story to the results.

Most of the time the two line up reasonably well. Teams creating good chances tend to score enough of them and finish somewhere close to where the underlying numbers suggest they should. This season produced some major exceptions though, in both directions, and those are the ones worth looking at more closely.

Crystal Palace could not buy a goal

No side in the Premier League underperformed its chance creation quite like Crystal Palace. Palace scored 41 goals from almost 58 xG, a shortfall of around 17 goals and comfortably the biggest finishing underperformance in the division. That translated directly into points too, 45 actual against 55.9 xPTS, a gap of almost 11 and the second biggest points shortfall behind only Wolves.

It was not simply one bad part of the season either. At home, Palace scored only 19 goals from 31.5 xG, a huge 12.5 goal difference, and collected 21 points against 29.8 xPTS. That home return alone explains a large part of why they finished 15th rather than pushing towards the top half.

The shot data makes the problem even clearer. Palace had 159 shots inside the box at home, only slightly below some of the better attacking sides in the league, but converted only 32.8% of their 58 shots on target inside the box. The Premier League home average was 48.5%.

Palace created enough chances. They simply did not finish enough of them.

Sunderland's defence was the real story of their promotion season

Sunderland finished seventh and comfortably clear of the bottom half, but their attacking numbers were almost exactly where the model expected. They scored 42 goals against 41.5 xG, so there was almost no overperformance at that end of the pitch.

The defence is where it gets interesting. Sunderland conceded only 48 goals from 60.6 xGA, outperforming the model by more than 12.5 goals across the season. Crucially, that was not simply driven by their home record. They conceded 5.8 fewer goals than expected at home and another 6.9 fewer away.

The points model shows just how significant it was. Sunderland collected 54 points against only 41.65 xPTS, the biggest overperformance anywhere in the Premier League. That split reasonably evenly by venue too, 33 home points against 24.43 expected and 21 away against 17.22 expected.

Whether the difference came from goalkeeping, their defensive structure or a settled back line, Sunderland consistently conceded fewer goals than the quality of chances they allowed suggested they should.

Manchester City's runner up finish leaned on volume as much as quality

Manchester City finished second, but even their strong final position came with some significant overperformance underneath it. They scored 77 goals from 68 xG and conceded only 35 from 44 xGA, outperforming the model at both ends.

The points followed the same pattern, 78 actual against 68.23 xPTS, a gap of almost 10. Most of that defensive and points overperformance came at home, where City conceded only 14 goals from 22 xGA and collected 45 points against 36.15 xPTS, the biggest home points overperformance in the league.

The interesting part is their attacking numbers. It would be easy to put City's home output down to elite finishing, but they converted 48.4% of their shots on target inside the box, strong without being exceptional and below Liverpool's 57.6%.

What separated City was volume. They generated 213 shots inside the box at home, more than any other team in the sample. Their attack was built around repeatedly creating chances rather than relying on an extreme conversion rate.

Wolverhampton Wanderers were bad and then unlucky on top of it

Wolves finished bottom and the model already rated them as the weakest side, but their actual results were considerably worse than even that poor underlying process suggested.

They collected only 20 points against 41.01 xPTS, a shortfall of 21, comfortably the biggest negative gap in the division. Away from home it became even more extreme, only six points collected against 18.18 expected.

Finishing was a huge part of the problem. Wolves scored only eight away goals from 18.7 xG, a shortfall of almost 11 and the biggest attacking underperformance of any home or away split in the league. They still generated 96 shots inside the box and put 40 on target, but converted only 20% of those efforts against a league away average of 43.5%.

Their home defence went the other way, conceding 34 goals from 26 xGA, while Wolves collected only 14 home points against 22.83 xPTS.

Wolves were poor by the underlying numbers, but they were also significantly unlucky on top of being poor.

Nottingham Forest were two different teams

Nottingham Forest's season makes far more sense when you split their home and away numbers.

At home they scored only 20 goals from 28.8 xG, a shortfall of almost nine. Away from home they went completely the other way, scoring 28 from only 19.6 xG, outperforming the model by more than eight goals.

The points tell almost exactly the same story. Forest collected only 20 points at home against 29.23 xPTS, but took 24 away against an expected 18.67.

Their finishing numbers support the split too. Forest converted only 39.2% of their shots on target inside the box at home compared with 47.5% away.

Across the full season those extremes partly cancel each other out, but the home and away split shows two completely different versions of the same team. Forest consistently underperformed their process at home while doing the opposite on the road.

Liverpool's away defence had a crack in it

Liverpool's overall numbers look fairly normal. They collected 60 points against 61.08 xPTS, almost exactly where the model expected them to finish.

The interesting number sits in their away defence. Liverpool conceded 33 goals on the road from 27.8 xGA, more than five goals worse than the quality of chances they allowed suggested.

That also showed up in their away points return, 24 actual against 26.88 expected.

It is nowhere near as extreme as Wolves, Sunderland or Palace, but it is worth watching. Liverpool's overall season matched their underlying numbers closely, while their away defence was one area where the actual results were noticeably worse than the process.

Burnley's relegation was mostly about away defending

Burnley's relegation was not a case of bad luck. They finished with 22 points against 22.08 xPTS, almost a perfect match between actual results and the model.

The way they got there is more interesting. Burnley scored 38 goals from only 30.5 xG, while at home they conceded 29 from 36.8 xGA, outperforming expectation at both ends in different ways.

Away from home was where the real damage was done. Burnley conceded 46 goals against 38.9 xGA, more than seven worse than an already poor underlying defensive process.

Their overall numbers were never good enough to suggest they deserved to survive, but the away defence made a bad season even worse. Burnley are a good example of why the final points total alone does not always explain what happened underneath it, even when the model and actual table finish almost perfectly agree.

Tottenham's home form was the league's quietest collapse

Tottenham finished 17th with 41 points against 49.93 xPTS, already one of the bigger underperformances in the league. Almost all of that gap came at home.

Spurs collected only 15 points from 19 home matches against 25.21 xPTS, a shortfall of more than 10 and the biggest home points underperformance anywhere in the division.

Away from home they were almost exactly where the model expected, taking 26 points against 24.72 xPTS.

The individual goal differences were less dramatic. Tottenham scored 22 home goals from 24.6 xG and conceded 31 from 26.5 xGA. Neither looks particularly extreme in isolation, but put them together across a full home season and the points disappeared quickly.

Tottenham's overall numbers suggest a team that underperformed. The venue split tells us where it happened. Almost all of the damage was done at home.

Three quiet overperformers: Aston Villa, Manchester United and Fulham

Not every anomaly needs an extreme finishing collapse or defensive overperformance. Aston Villa, Manchester United and Fulham all finished comfortably ahead of their xPTS numbers, but each did it slightly differently.

Aston Villa collected 65 points against 55.18 xPTS, a gap of 9.82 and the second biggest overperformance in the league. Unlike some of the teams above, there is no single extreme number explaining it. Villa finished 5.33 points above expectation at home and 4.49 away, scored 56 goals from 53 xG and conceded 49 against 46.8 xGA. They simply collected slightly more than the underlying numbers expected across both venues and both ends of the pitch.

Manchester United followed a similar pattern. Their 71 points came against 62.32 xPTS, a gap of 8.68, split between 3.53 points above expectation at home and 5.16 away. They scored 69 goals from 64.5 xG and conceded 50 from 47 xGA, with no single huge anomaly driving the difference. United consistently squeezed more points from their performances than the model expected.

Fulham are the exception because almost all of their overperformance came at home. They collected 35 points at Craven Cottage against 28.93 xPTS, a positive gap of 6.07, while their 17 away points were actually below the 19.40 expected.

The goals follow the same pattern. Fulham scored 30 at home from 26.1 xG but managed only 17 away from 21 xG. Their overall season therefore hides a clear venue split. Fulham's final position was built heavily on outperforming their underlying numbers at home.

Welcome back to MFT’s 10-1,000 betting challenge, where we aim for a 100x return on the original investment via a small stake betting strategy, prioritising low risk and low odds en route to a long-term target.

While this column is dedicated to high-probability tips, there is no guarantee of profit. If playing along, you should consider your own budget and confidence in the tip provided, and make your own decision whether to follow, cash out or continue at every stage. 18+, please gamble responsibly.

We will use a unit system for our stakes, allowing readers to set their own unit value that suits their own budget. For the sake of simplicity, for us, 1 unit = £1.

We will continue to transparently track our progress as far as we go on the path to 1,000, but will refresh our main tracking stake back to the starting point every time we surpass 100 units – a 10x ROI.

For the sake of consistency, all tips are placed using odds from bet365. It worth pointing out that with Bet365 we can paid out if our selection goes into a lead by two or more goals.

Wolves last minute penalty yesterday evening saved us and the bet was refunded as we took the hosts on DNB. I am hoping for a more straight forward bet today

Bet 10 – Norwich City vs WBA – Saturday 15^th August at 3pm

Norwich to score against West Bromwich Albion looks a strong angle based on how both sides performed last season.

When Philippe Clement took charge in November, Norwich were second bottom of the Championship with just nine points from 15 matches. From his appointment until the end of the season, they collected 56 points, the fifth-best return in the division over that period, behind only Southampton, Coventry, Ipswich and Millwall.

That turnaround was backed by reliable scoring at Carrow Road. Norwich found the net in 13 of their 16 home matches under Clement last season, an 81% rate, averaging 1.44 goals from 1.12 xG and 7.25 shots inside the box per game.

West Brom's away numbers from last season strengthen the case. They conceded 33 goals across 23 away matches, an average of 1.43 per game, and kept only six clean sheets. Looking specifically at the period after Clement took charge of Norwich, West Brom conceded in 11 of their final 15 away matches, a 73% rate.

Norwich scored consistently at home once Clement arrived, while West Brom struggled to keep clean sheets on the road throughout last season. Those two trends make Norwich to score the angle I prefer here.

• Bet: WBA no clean sheet
• Odds: 1/5
• 83.60 units returns 100.32

It’s been nearly three months since we last spoke about Spanish football, and now La Liga is back in full swing, with two exciting fixtures coming up on Sunday. 

Racing Santander will play a top-flight match at El Sardinero for the first time in over 14 years, with their first test coming against last season’s third-placed side, Villarreal. In the late kick-off, we’ll see two of the teams that battled against relegation right until the very end of last season – Espanyol and Levante.

Below, you’ll find our expert tips and predictions for each of Sunday’s La Liga matches.

Today’s La Liga betting tips & predictions

Racing Santander vs. Villarreal (4pm)

Racing Santander won La Liga 2 convincingly last season and will certainly be pleased to be kicking off at home, given the 20 goals they scored in their last five home matches. 

However, there is another factor to consider: the team failed to impress during pre-season, having played four La Liga sides without securing a single victory.

Villarreal look to be in much better form, apart from a few minor defensive lapses, and following their phenomenal season, they’ll be keen to get off to the best possible start against the league’s newcomers.

We mustn’t forget that last season it was Racing Santander who knocked Villarreal out of the Copa del Rey, so I don’t think it will be an easy ride for the Yellow Submarine after all. I expect BTTS and an away win, which also means at least three goals.

Racing Santander vs. Villarreal top betting tip: BTTS, Villarreal to win

Espanyol vs. Levante (6pm)

Espanyol and Levante both finished last season on a similarly strong note, and will be looking to build on that at the start of the new one. 

Their pre-season preparations have shown a bit of everything, so it’s difficult to say which team will be in better form. Their last meeting ended in a dull 0–0 draw, but these are two sides who usually put on a good show against each other. 

Seven of their last 10 head-to-head matches have seen goals at both ends. Both teams will be keen to secure a win in the opening round, so I reckon BTTS is the best option here too.

Espanyol vs. Levante top betting tip: BTTS

After making it five winners from my last six BOTD columns at Charlotte in the early hours of Sunday morning, Sunday’s Football Bet of the Day sees me remain in the MLS, and I’ve highlighted another goals-based selection in one of the fixtures.

⚽️ New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union

🇺🇸 MLS

⏰ Sunday 16 August, 23:00

Goals look on the cards at Yankee Stadium on Sunday evening as the New York City FC entertain the Philadelphia Union in an all-Eastern Conference clash.

Pascal Jansen’s hosts have scored 31 goals across their opening 18 matches in the MLS this term, with 23 (74%) of them coming in front of their supporters.

The Pigeons have blanked just once at home in the MLS this campaign – scoring 2+ goals in 6/10 (60%) of them – and will be confident of adding to that goal tally against a Union backline that has yet to register a clean sheet on their travels this season, shipping 24 goals.

Ryan Richter’s visitors have scored 25 goals across their opening 18 encounters in the MLS this campaign, with 15 (60%) of them coming on their travels.

The Union have failed to score in just one of their previous eight road trips in the MLS – scoring 2+ goals in four of the past six – and will also be confident of getting on the scoresheet against an NYCFC defence that has kept just one clean sheet across their last nine MLS clashes on home soil.

Interested in why both teams scoring is such a strong angle? Check out our Masterclass on BTTS and sharpen your match-reading game.

Bet of the Day

NYCFC’s opening 10 MLS clashes in front of their supporters this season have averaged a whopping 3.80 goals per game, with Over 2.5 Goals paying out in seven (70%) of them, whilst seven of their past nine have produced goals at both ends.

The Union’s opening nine road trips in MLS this term have averaged a whopping 4.33 goals per game, with Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals landing in seven of the past eight – and I’m backing that trend to continue in New York on Sunday evening.

• Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
• Pays 10/11 (bet365)

Join me on Telegram

I’m delighted to have joined the excellent team at Gambla to provide even more tips for those of you who want to follow me. I’ll be posting daily on my Private Telegram Channel which you can access here.

You can cancel at any time so why not join me? And let’s bash the bookies together.

SlipsTips shares a selection ahead of Burnley's clash with West Ham in the English Championship on Sunday.

Burnley vs West Ham (Sunday, 16:00)

Two teams who were Premier League foes last season will square off in the English Championship at Turf Moor on Sunday as Burnley play host to West Ham.

Having both been relegated from the top flight last term, the duo will be desperate to bounce back at the first attempt.

Given that West Ham are the outright favourites for the Championship title, it's no surprise to see them priced up as 5/4 favourites here.

However, I'm going to bypass the 1X2 market and instead turn my attention to a player-based selection that has caught my eye.

The angle of attack I am keen to lean on in Lancashire is taking Taty Castellanos to commit two or more fouls at a value 10/11 on bet365

West Ham will be hoping Castellanos can fire them back to the Premier League this term, with the forward's physicality and aggression standing out as key features of his game.

Indeed, across his 18 appearances for West Ham in the Premier League last season, Castellanos committed an average of 2.07 fouls per game.

Upon closer inspection, it can be seen that the Argentine committed multiple fouls in each of his final three top-flight appearances last term.

That trend continued in the EFL Cup last weekend, with Castellanos being penalised on three separate occasions.

It should also be noted that the 26-year-old collected six cards across his 18 Premier League appearances last season, further highlighting his knack for falling foul of the match officials.

The likelihood of Castellanos coming up against Bashir Humphreys only strengthens this selection.

The Burnley defender was fouled on four occasions against Notts County last week, which only adds to the appeal of backing Castellanos to commit two or more fouls at Turf Moor.

Recommended Bet

• Taty Castellanos To Commit 2+ Fouls – 10/11 (bet365)

View our expert's Goals Accumulator Tips for Saturday, which includes Total Team Goals tips and a Both Teams To Score selection.

Our Goals Acca Tips are based on statistical analysis of recent performances.

Norwich vs West Brom – Both Teams to Score (Saturday, 15:00)

An entertaining encounter could be on the cards in the English Championship on Saturday when Norwich welcome West Bromwich Albion.

The Canaries were on a steep upward curve under Philip Clement last season and will be hoping to mount a promotion push this term.

As for West Brom, they'll be hoping to improve upon last season's disappointing 21st-placed finish.

There were goals at both ends in seven of Norwich's final eight league games of last season, and that trend looks set to continue in their opening day battle with the Baggies.

Salford to Score 1+ (Saturday, 15:00)

One of the standout games from the opening weekend of English League Two on Saturday will see Barnet square off with Salford.

Both teams finished in the upper reaches of the table last season, with Barnet placing eighth and Salford fourth.

It's the visitors who are among the favourites to win the title this term, and they'll be looking to hit the ground running at the Hive.

Salford found the net in all four of their pre-season friendlies as well as their EFL Cup outing last weekend, and they carry the necessary firepower to breach Barnet's backline at least once.

Bristol Rovers to Score 1+ (Saturday, 15:00)

Bristol Rovers will be looking to maintain the momentum they built at the end of last season when they travel to face York on Saturday.

Steve Evans' side stormed towards the finish line by winning 10 of their final 11 matches, and they'll be hoping to carry that form into the new campaign.

As for York, they are back in League Two following their National League title success last season.

Bristol Rovers found the net in 13 of their final 14 league matches last term, and they look well placed to get on the scoresheet at least once at the LNER Community Stadium.

Celtic to Score 2+ (Saturday, 17:45)

Celtic will get their Scottish League Cup campaign up and running when they travel to Tannadice to take on Dundee United on Saturday evening.

The League Cup was the only domestic trophy that the Hoops failed to lift last season, having suffered a shock 3-1 defeat to St Mirren in the final during Wilfried Nancy's ill-fated spell in charge.

However, Martin O'Neill has since steered Celtic to a double, and they have made an impressive start to their Scottish Premiership campaign, most notably thumping Kilmarnock 5-1 last weekend.

With that in mind, the Glasgow heavyweights look well equipped to score at least twice against a Dundee United side that shipped four goals away at Hearts last time out.

Goals Accumulator Tips

• Norwich vs West Brom – Both Teams to Score
• Salford to Score 1+
• Bristol Rovers to Score 1+
• Celtic to Score 2+
• £10 on today's Acca returns £55.51 at bet365

This pre-season I built a full Premier League season simulation model from scratch. The aim is simple, estimate where every club is likely to finish in 2026/27 and identify where those probabilities disagree most strongly with the bookmakers.

What the Premier League model actually does

The model runs a Dixon Coles style Monte Carlo simulation. Rather than trying to predict the final Premier League table directly, it plays out the entire 380-game season 20,000 times.

Each match uses the estimated attacking and defensive strength of the two clubs to calculate the probability of different scorelines. The Dixon Coles element adjusts those probabilities to better reflect tight, low-scoring matches that simpler models often struggle to price accurately.

After 20,000 simulated seasons, I count how often each club wins the title, finishes in the top four, finishes in the top half, gets relegated or lands above or below its points line. Those frequencies become the model probabilities.

The starting point for every club is three seasons of Premier League xG and xGA data, weighted so the most recent campaign carries the greatest influence.

Coventry City, Ipswich Town and Hull City were in the Championship last season, so their numbers need treating differently. I use their Championship data and scale it according to how promoted clubs have historically performed after stepping into the Premier League. A club dominating Championship opposition clearly cannot be expected to produce the same numbers against Premier League teams.

Four further signals then adjust those initial ratings.

Bookmaker prices across the title, top four, top half and relegation markets provide an external assessment of each club's strength. Squad value and net summer transfer spend account for changes in overall squad quality. Managerial changes are included, with the adjustment depending partly on whether the incoming manager inherits a stable club or one already struggling.

The final adjustment is the part I spent the most time building. Every club receives a net transfer quality score using the actual performance of its arrivals and departures across 14 leagues. Minutes, xG, xA and defensive actions per 90 all feed into it, meaning summer business is judged on what players produced rather than simply the size of their transfer fees.

Finally, every club receives its own home advantage based on its actual home and away performance rather than applying the same flat adjustment across all 20 teams.

During the research I also checked the xPTS of each promoted club from last season, a separate measure of underlying performance based on the chances created and conceded across individual matches.

This is not an input within the model itself. I used it separately to stress test some of the more extreme outputs, and it became particularly important when assessing Hull City.

Premier League model bets

My headline position is Hull City to finish bottom at 11/8.

Even after stripping away every manual adjustment and trusting nothing except the raw model, Hull finish bottom in around 61% of simulations. Once everything is included, that rises above 85%.

Hull won promotion through the playoffs but ranked only 17th of 24 Championship clubs on xPTS. That was the widest gap between results and underlying performance in the division, meaning their promotion significantly flattered how they actually performed.

They also spent last season under a transfer embargo, their summer recruitment has been modest even by promoted club standards and several first-team players enter the campaign injured.

The same weakness appears in another market. Hull under 25 points is 10/11, a price implying around 47%. My model puts the probability at 89%.

That matters because this is not one isolated model output producing an extreme number. Hull look weak across several different measures.

• Hull City to finish bottom at 11/8 at Betway
• Hull under 25 points at 10/11 at Bet365

Fulham to struggle after summer of departures

Fulham provide the next significant disagreement. They have lost three established Premier League regulars this summer in Sasa Lukic, Raul Jimenez and Harry Wilson. All three played significant minutes last season, while Gonzalo Garcia represents essentially the only like-for-like replacement.

The model therefore sees a genuine reduction in squad quality rather than normal summer turnover.

Fulham under 46 points is priced at 10/11, implying around 47%. My model puts the probability at 86%. That is one of the biggest gaps anywhere in the points markets.

• Fulham under 46 points at 10/11 with Bet365

Newcastle United to struggle after loss of key players & manager

Newcastle provide another strong disagreement between model and market.

Bruno Guimaraes, Anthony Gordon and Sandro Tonali have all departed in the same window, removing three established players from the spine of the side. Their replacements are predominantly younger and less proven at Premier League level.

There is also uncertainty around the managerial change. Matthias Jaissle begins his first season in the Premier League and has spoken publicly about the leadership lost from the dressing room and the need to strengthen at full-back.

The market implies around a 65% chance of Newcastle finishing in the top half. My model puts that figure at only 22%.

The same concern appears in their points line. Newcastle under 54 points is available at 8/11, implying around 53%, against an 84% probability from the model. Again, it is the consistency across different markets that interests me rather than one extreme output.

• Newcastle under 54 points at 8/11 with Bet365

Buzzing Bees to continue impressive form of last term

Brentford provide the strongest disagreement in the opposite direction. Their underlying numbers give the model a solid starting point. Across the three-season sample, Brentford have averaged 1.55 xG against 1.38 xGA per game, already producing a positive underlying process before this summer's transfer activity is considered.

Mamadou Sangare's arrival from Lens adds further quality in defensive midfield and scores well within the transfer component of the model. The model gives Brentford an 89% chance of finishing in the top half against a market probability of 43%.

The points market supports the same view. Brentford over 50 points is 5/4, implying 40%, while the model has it at 91%.

• Brentford over 50 points at 5/4 with Bet365

Why these four Premier League clubs stand out

The model produces probabilities across five different markets, title, top four, top half, relegation and season points.

For most clubs, those probabilities sit reasonably close to the market. There might be an interesting difference in one area, but nothing significant enough elsewhere to strengthen the case.

Hull, Fulham, Newcastle and Brentford are different.

The disagreement repeatedly appears across multiple markets. Hull rate poorly for relegation, finishing bottom and their points total. Newcastle rate poorly for both the top half and their points line. Brentford rate strongly for both the top half and their points total.

That matters because I trust a repeated signal considerably more than one extreme probability sitting on its own.

Premier League bets that did not get over the line

Not every large difference becomes a bet.

Nottingham Forest initially looked concerning. They have been the Premier League's biggest net seller after Elliot Anderson left for a club-record £116m, but the subsequent reinvestment looks sensibly targeted rather than the product of a fire sale. I am leaving Forest alone for now.

Leeds United produce the single biggest model versus market difference anywhere in the database. The problem is what drives it. A significant part of the edge comes from their individual home advantage, which is based on only one season of relevant data. I do not trust that sample enough to put money behind the output yet.

Brighton were another club worth investigating beyond the headline model number. Their summer includes meaningful departures, but nothing approaching the talent drain seen at Fulham. Their record of selling players for significant fees and replacing them effectively also gives me enough reason to leave them alone.

Bournemouth's position survived the same scrutiny. Their underlying numbers supported last season's top-six finish and Marco Rose arrives with a strong reputation. I found little away from the model to justify overriding their rating.

Updating the Premier League model

This is not a one-off pre-season exercise.

As the season develops, actual Premier League results will begin replacing assumptions. Injuries will alter squad strength, the remaining summer transfer business will change ratings and January recruitment will provide another significant update.

I will rerun the simulation as those inputs change and publish new positions whenever the movement becomes large enough to justify it.

That also means none of these positions gets protected simply because it was a preseason bet. If the evidence changes, the model changes with it.

Celtic lost their grip on the Scottish League Cup last term and start their quest to regain the trophy with a trip to Dundee United tonight.

The Hoops hit top form last Sunday as they thrashed Kilmarnock 5-1 at Rugby Park so they will head to Tayside with their tails up.

But they lost on both their visits to Tannadice last season so the Parkhead giants know it won't be easy in this last-16 tie.

Dundee United vs Celtic top betting tips

Despite those 2-1 and 2-0 defeats at Tannadice last term, Celtic are 3/10 hot favourites to reach the quarter-finals, with a win inside 90 minutes only a little bigger at 11/20.

If the Premiership champions hit the levels we saw last Sunday then those odds seem fair enough, especially with Dundee United losing 4-0 to Hearts in their last outing.

I don't think Jim Goodwin's side will fold like Kilmarnock did but the Hoops still look pretty formidable with their revamped attack.

Kasper Hogh scored a hat-trick at Rugby Park but fellow new boy Camilo Duran also impressed and rattled a shot off the woodwork.

The Colombian scored a few in pre-season so I fancy him for a first competitive goal tonight at 21/20 with Bet365.

All three meetings last season saw 13 corners or more so that makes over 11 flag kicks a decent option tonight at 6/5 with the same firm.

Aberdeen vs Dundee

Aberdeen will be out for revenge in today's League Cup clash with Dundee after losing 2-0 at Dens in the SPFL Premiership last weekend.

Having started the season with five successive wins, it was a surprise to see the Dons put in such a poor performance in that loss to the Dark Blues.

Dundee were superb but Bet365 still make them 5/4 outsiders to come out on top today and I'm inclined to agree.

Aberdeen should be a different beast at home and manager Stephen Robinson lifted this trophy as manager of St Mirren last term.

He also led Motherwell to a couple of cup finals so I fancy the Dons to win this one inside 90 minutes at evens with Bet365.

The Reds will be a threat from set-pieces, with stoppers Lewis Mayo and Dan Happe already scoring in Pittodrie wins this term.

Towering Englishman Happe is 11/1 for anytime scorer today and that could be worth a speculative punt.

Bolton Wanderers vs Preston North End

Bolton Wanderers are back in the EFL Championship and kick off their campaign with a tasty clash at home to Preston North End.

Wanderers have spent the last five seasons in League One but they're back on the up after winning the play-off final.

Home form will be key to avoiding a battle against the drop and Bolton are 6/5 favourites with Bet365 to bank three points on day one.

But Preston North End are unbeaten in the last meetings and could be a tough nut to crack.

This has the makings of a tight game and the half-time draw appeals at 6/5 with Bet365. We could also see a few cards and backing either Preston's Andrew Hughes or Josh Sheehan of Bolton to go into the book pays 13/10 with the same firm.

Super singles

• Camilo Duran anytime scorer 21/20 Bet365
• Aberdeen win in 90 minutes Evens Bet365
• Andrew Hughes or Josh Sheehan to be carded 13/10 Bet365

Long shot

• Dan Happe anytime scorer 11/1 Bet365

Upcoming match previews and betting tips

• Sat 14:00 Chelsea vs Real Sociedad
• Sat 15:45 Manchester United vs AC Milan
• Sat 17:30 Sheffield Utd vs Birmingham City
• Sat 17:45 Dundee United vs Celtic
• MrFixIt’s Big Acca: Choose your own risk up to 10 game, 105/1 Saturday acca

Racing tips

The weekend racing gets underway and Rizzel's here with a double dose of tips.

• Saturday’s Racing Tips – Scoville Ready to Turn Up the Heat at Newbury
• Saturday’s Lucky 15 Tips – Selections from Deauville, Ripon & Newbury

As always, leave your own tips and comments below.

MrFixIt’s Big Acca is a confidence-ranked accumulator built to give you control over risk.

Selections are ordered from strongest to weakest based on form, matchup, and underlying performance. You decide where to stop. From the third selection onward, the cumulative odds update at every step, allowing you to lock in a sensible acca or keep building toward a bigger return.

This Saturday sees me highlight selections from China, Norway and the MLS.

One list. Multiple exit points. You choose the risk level.

Goals look guaranteed in Georgia on Saturday night/Sunday morning as Atlanta United welcome RB New York to the Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

NYRB’S opening nine MLS matches on the road this season have averaged a whopping 3.78 goals per game, with Both Teams to Score banking in eight (88%) of them, whilst 6/8 (75%) of the Five Stripes’ home clashes have seen both teams oblige.

There should be no shortage of goals in Florida on Saturday night/Sunday morning, as Orlando City entertain FC Cincinnati.

After seeing just four goals scored across their opening three MLS clashes this term, Cincinnati’s next 15 have averaged a staggering 5.67 goals per game, with Over 3.5 Goals landing in 12 (80%) of them, whilst 11/18 (61%) of Orlando’s MLS matches have seen a minimum of four goals.

Two clubs separated only by five points in the Eastern Conference table meet at the Bank of America Stadium in the early hours of Sunday morning as Charlotte FC entertain the Columbus Crew in a fixture that appeals to me for goals.

The Crew’s opening nine road trips in the MLS this season have averaged an eye-catching 3.67 goals per game, with Both Teams to Score landing in eight (89%) of them, whilst 12/18 (67%) of the Crown’s MLS clashes have seen goals at both ends.

Bet: Atlanta United vs RB New York & Charlotte FC vs Columbus Crew – Both Teams to Score, Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati – Over 3.5 Goals at 13/5 at bet365

Two clubs separated only by three points in the Western Conference table meet at the American First Field in the early hours of Sunday morning as Real Salt Lake entertain Minnesota United in a fixture that appeals to me for goals.

RSL’s opening 17 MLS fixtures have averaged 3.18 goals per game, with Over 2.5 Goals landing in 12 (71%) of them – including in 6/8 (75%) of them on home soil – whilst 8/9 (89%) of Minnesota’s road trips have gone Over 2.5 Goals.

Bet: Atlanta United vs RB New York & Charlotte FC vs Columbus Crew – Both Teams to Score, Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United – Over 2.5 Goals & Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati – Over 3.5 Goals at 19/4 at bet365

Joint Western Conference leaders LAFC will look to continue their impressive run of form as they welcome poor-travelling San Diego FC to BMO Field.

The Black and Gold have seven of their 10 MLS encounters in front of their supporters this season (W7-D1-L2) – including each of their previous three – and will be confident of continuing their strong run of form against a San Diego side that is winless in each of their last seven on the road, losing four of their previous six.

Bet: LAFC to Win, Atlanta United vs RB New York & Charlotte FC vs Columbus Crew – Both Teams to Score, Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United – Over 2.5 Goals & Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati – Over 3.5 Goals at 8/1 at bet365

Goals look likely in the Norwegian capital on Saturday afternoon as relegation-threatened Lyn entertain playoff-chasing Odd in the Norwegian second tier.

Odd’s opening 17 fixtures in the Norwegian second tier this campaign have averaged 3.35 goals per game, with Over 2.5 Goals banking in 13 (76%) of them – including in nine of their past 11 – whilst seven of Lyn’s past eight have seen a minimum of three goals.

Bet: LAFC to Win, Atlanta United vs RB New York & Charlotte FC vs Columbus Crew – Both Teams to Score, Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United & Lyn 1896 vs Odd – Over 2.5 Goals & Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati – Over 3.5 Goals at 12/1 at bet365

Goals look likely at the Shanghai Stadium at lunchtime on Saturday as 13th-placed Shanghai Shenhua entertain 11th-placed Henan.

Shanghai Shenhua’s opening 10 Chinese Super League fixtures on home soil this season have averaged an eye-catching 3.80 goals per game, with Over 2.5 Goals landing in seven (70%) of them – including in five of their previous six – whilst each of Henan’s last five on the road have gone Over 2.5 Goals.

Bet: LAFC to Win, Atlanta United vs RB New York & Charlotte FC vs Columbus Crew – Both Teams to Score, Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United, Lyn 1896 vs Odd & Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan- Over 2.5 Goals & Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati – Over 3.5 Goals at 18/1 at bet365

Goals also look likely at the TEDA Soccer Stadium on Saturday afternoon as relegation-threatened Tianjin Jinmen Tigers entertain AFC Champions League-chasing Beijing Guoan.

Tianjin Jinmen’s previous nine Chinese Super League fixtures on home soil have averaged 3.22 goals per game, with Over 2.5 Goals landing in seven (78%) of them – including in six of their past seven – whilst 10 of Beijing Guoan’s last 14 league outings have seen three or more goals.

Bet: LAFC to Win, Atlanta United vs RB New York & Charlotte FC vs Columbus Crew – Both Teams to Score, Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United, Lyn 1896 vs Odd, Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan & Tianjin Jinmen Tigers vs Beijing Guoan – Over 2.5 Goals & Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati – Over 3.5 Goals at 34/1 at bet365

Colorado Rapids will look to continue their impressive home record as they welcome Sporting KC to Dick’s Sporting Goods Park in the early hours of Sunday morning.

The Rapids have been victorious in five of their eight MLS encounters in front of their supporters this season (W5-D0-L3) – including each of the last two – and host a Sporting KC side that has lost six of their last seven MLS fixtures on their travels.

Bet: LAFC & Colorado Rapids to Win, Atlanta United vs RB New York & Charlotte FC vs Columbus Crew – Both Teams to Score, Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United, Lyn 1896 vs Odd, Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan & Tianjin Jinmen Tigers vs Beijing Guoan – Over 2.5 Goals & Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati – Over 3.5 Goals at 50/1 at bet365

Two clubs separated by a solitary point in the Chinese Super League table meet at the Tiexi Stadium at lunchtime on Saturday as ninth-placed Liaoning Ironman entertain 11th-placed Shenzhen Peng City in a fixture that I’m keen to get the hosts on side.

Liaoning Ironman post record of W6-D0-L5 since promotion to the Chinese top flight – with that record changing to W6-D0-L0 when excluding meetings with the current top-five – and host a Shenzhen Peng City side that boasts the worst away record in the Chinese Super League, picking up just four points from their opening 11 road trips (W1-D1-L9).

Bet: LAFC, Colorado Rapids & Liaoning Ironman to Win, Atlanta United vs RB New York & Charlotte FC vs Columbus Crew – Both Teams to Score, Real Salt Lake vs Minnesota United, Lyn 1896 vs Odd, Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan & Tianjin Jinmen Tigers vs Beijing Guoan – Over 2.5 Goals & Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati – Over 3.5 Goals at 105/1 at bet365

After making it four winners from my last five BOTD columns at Ibrox on Thursday, Saturday’s Football Bet of the Day sees me head to the MLS, and I’ve highlighted a goals-based selection in one of the fixtures.

⚽️ Charlotte FC vs Columbus Crew

🇺🇸 MLS

⏰ Sunday 16 August, 00:30

Two clubs separated only by five points in the Eastern Conference table meet at the Bank of America Stadium in the early hours of Sunday morning as Charlotte FC entertain the Columbus Crew in a fixture that appeals to me for goals.

Dean Smith’s hosts have scored 29 goals across their opening 18 contests in the MLS this term, with an impressive 20 (69%) of them coming in front of their supporters.

The Crown have blanked just four times all season – scoring on multiple occasions in 6/10 (60%) of their home clashes – and will be confident of breaching a Columbus backline that has yet to register a clean sheet on their travels in MLS this campaign, shipping 2+ goals in 7/9 (78%) of them.

Laurent Courtois’ visitors have scored 26 goals across their opening 18 MLS encounters this season, with 14 (54%) of them coming on their travels.

The Crew have failed to score in just one of their last 14 MLS contests – scoring two or more goals in eight (57%) of them – and they will also be confident of getting on the scoresheet against a Crown defence that has kept just three clean sheets in the MLS this term.

Interested in why both teams scoring is such a strong angle? Check out our Masterclass on BTTS and sharpen your match-reading game.

Bet of the Day

The Crew’s opening nine road trips in the MLS this season have averaged an eye-catching 3.67 goals per game, with Both Teams to Score landing in eight (89%) of them, whilst eight (89%) of them have also gone Over 2.5 Goals.

Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals has landed in 10 of Charlotte FC’s previous 14 MLS encounters – including in six of their last eight in front of their supporters – and I’m backing that trend to continue in North Carolina on Saturday night/Sunday morning.

• Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals
• Pays 10/11 (bet365)

Join me on Telegram

I’m delighted to have joined the excellent team at Gambla to provide even more tips for those of you who want to follow me. I’ll be posting daily on my Private Telegram Channel which you can access here.

You can cancel at any time so why not join me? And let’s bash the bookies together.

Last week was tough going, one winner from our three headline picks, but the numbers tell a kinder story than the results did.

Carlisle dominated almost every metric going at home to Worthing and still came away with nothing, while Fylde were made to settle for a point after conceding late against Wealdstone. It's still early days, not enough matches yet to lean too heavily on the numbers, but the shape of week one has already thrown up plenty worth digging into for round two.

Carlisle head to Huish Park to face a Yeovil side whose own opening result flattered them just as much as Worthing's flattered Carlisle, and the underlying picture from both matches makes this one of the more interesting reversals of the weekend.

At Grosvenor Vale, Wealdstone host a Harrogate Town side whose opening weekend performance was as complete as anything else in the division, against a home team that needed a slice of fortune just to avoid defeat in their own opener.

And at The Lamb, Tamworth welcome an AFC Fylde side whose away form has travelled up a level intact, in a fixture that pits one of last week's most dominant underlying displays against a Tamworth side that scored three goals without controlling much of the game at all.

The column still sits at a healthy 9.36% ROI from the last 150+ bets meaning we have plenty of confidence that this season will be another profitable one.

Yeovil vs Carlisle United

Huish Park stages one of the most interesting fixtures of the weekend after two opening results that bore little resemblance to the underlying performances.

Carlisle somehow lost 3-2 at home to Worthing despite dominating almost every meaningful attacking metric. Rob Elliott's side registered 28 shots, six on target and 36 touches in the opposition box compared with only eight for Worthing. The xG difference was even more extreme at 4.11 against 0.42. On another afternoon, that level of dominance produces a comfortable victory.

There is also enough quality in this Carlisle squad to suggest it was more than a one-off. Regan Linney provides proven goals, while Elliott strengthened his defence over the summer with two additions from Gateshead. The challenge now is turning control and chance creation into points.

Yeovil's 1-1 draw at Scunthorpe produced almost the opposite picture. Billy Rowley's heavily rebuilt side managed only four touches in the opposition box compared with Scunthorpe's 24, while losing the xG battle 1.46 to 0.54. Twelve summer signings and an almost entirely new defence also mean this remains a side searching for cohesion.

Both teams therefore collected results that failed to reflect their opening performances. Carlisle were punished despite dominating, while Yeovil escaped with a point despite spending long periods second best. If those underlying performances carry into Saturday, Carlisle should have the advantage.

• Best Bet: Carlisle to win at 10/11 with William Hill

Wealdstone vs Harrogate Town

Grosvenor Vale hosts a fixture between two sides whose opening performances were considerably further apart than their respective league positions currently suggest.

Harrogate's 5-2 win over Solihull Moors was backed by dominant underlying numbers. Simon Weaver's side registered 13 shots on target, 36 touches in the opposition box and 2.98 xG, one of the strongest attacking performances anywhere in the division on the opening weekend.

That provides early encouragement after a summer designed to strengthen a promotion challenge. Brad Dolaghan adds goals, while Tom Lees brings considerable EFL experience to a squad already carrying expectations of competing towards the top.

Wealdstone's 2-2 draw at Fylde was much less convincing. Gary Waddock's side were beaten nine to four on shots on target and 23 to 15 on touches in the opposition box, with the overall performance suggesting they were fortunate to leave with a point.

The wider squad picture adds to the concern. Wealdstone entered the campaign with one of the division's smallest squads after losing Nathan Tshikuna, Dom Hutchinson, Junior Tiensia and Sean Adarkwa during the summer.

One match is a small sample, but the opening data strongly supports the respective preseason expectations. Harrogate produced one of the division's best attacking displays, while Wealdstone were second best despite avoiding defeat. The early gap in process looks significant.

• Best Bet: Harrogate to win at 1/1 with William Hill

Tamworth vs AFC Fylde

The Lamb has traditionally been a difficult ground for visiting teams, but Fylde arrive after producing an opening performance that suggests their promotion-winning process has travelled with them.

Their 2-2 draw against Wealdstone significantly undersold their dominance. Craig Mahon's side won the shots on target count nine to four, had 23 touches in the opposition box against 15 and generated 2.57 xG while allowing 1.36. Danny Ormerod and Cedric Main give Fylde enough proven attacking quality to expect more of those chances to become goals.

Tamworth also opened with a high-scoring draw, finishing 3-3 at Boreham Wood, but their underlying numbers told a different story. Andy Peaks' side managed only 15 touches in the opposition box compared with Boreham Wood's 51. Scoring three times from that level of attacking territory looks difficult to repeat consistently.

Tamworth's direct style, physical approach and set-piece threat remain significant factors, particularly at The Lamb. Their summer recruitment also addressed defensive weaknesses, although much of that work was aimed at improving an away record that caused problems last season.

The contrast between the opening performances is difficult to ignore. Fylde controlled their game without receiving the result their performance deserved. Tamworth scored three despite spending far less time in dangerous areas. Saturday provides an early test of whether those underlying numbers were a genuine indication of what comes next.

• Best Bet: Fylde DNB at 7/5 with Paddy

Spartans were unlucky they didn't secure their first-ever promotion last term, but they should be up there again in League Two and can pile on the early season misery to Stranraer.

The capital side missed out in the play-offs last season, but are fancied to challenge and have started the season decently.

They won at League One Montrose in the League Cup and then produced a superb comeback win to snatch a victory in the opening day of the season at Annan Athletic.

Spartans dropped points at home in their derby against Edinburgh City, but held East Fife to a draw in midweek in the Challenge Cup.

And they should have too much for a struggling Stranraer side who already look in trouble.

They have lost five games in a row in all competitions, including their first two league games of the season. And the Ainslie Park side should get the points at 6/5 at Stair Park with McBookie.com.

Aberdeen vs Dundee prediction

Dundee look a cracking bet to inflict a double dose of trouble on Aberdeen in the League Cup at McBookie.com's 12/5.

The sides faced each other last week and don't be fooled by the 2-0 scoreline, it could easily have been double that in a one-sided encounter at Dens Park.

Aberdeen were comprehensively outplayed and Dundee look like a team who could be exciting to follow this season. In fact, they have shown early signs of being this term's Motherwell!

The game is of course being played at Pittodrie this week, but it's hard to see what differences Stephen Robinson will make to stop the likes of Joe Bevan, who terrorised the Dons defence last week.

And the price of an away win looks value.

Hamilton Accies vs Airdrie prediction

Hamilton Accies could triumph at 5/6 with McBookie.com in the Lanarkshire derby against Airdrie.

Accies seem to have finally got their act together on and off the pitch after seasons of despair amid umpteen points deductions and stadium issues.

They scored five goals two weeks in a row – in the League Cup against Elgin City and the League One opener against Montrose on their return to their New Douglas Park home.

Accies have a team absolutely packed with experience now and face a Diamonds side who have started the season with two draws in the league.

It's likely to be a fiery affair and the hosts can get the bragging rights.

The betting weekend continues here as Desmond brings us his best goals bets from across Europe on Sunday, including a Goals Accumulator.

To Score 2+ Goals Tips

Guys, two teams that I like the look of to score 2+ goals on Sunday are Hearts and Rangers.

I’m starting off with Hearts to score at least two goals against Inverness in the Scottish League Cup on Saturday. Hearts got their first domestic victory of the season last weekend when they defeated Dundee United 4-0 at Tynecastle. They will be up against an Inverness team that are winless in two Scottish Championship matches this season so far.

Next up, it is Rangers to score 2+ goals against St Mirren in the Scottish League Cup on Sunday. Rangers have endured a miserable start to the campaign, but it's surely only a matter of time before they get a first victory under Derek McInnes. They are taking on a St Mirren side that conceded three goals against East Kilbride during the group stage of the League Cup.

Going for the usual 3 points double that pays 4/5 with bet365.

Both Teams to Score Double

Other goal bets that I like the look of on Sunday include a 11/5 Both Teams to Score double of Hibernian vs Partick Thistle and Arsenal vs Man City.

• Both teams have scored in four of Hibernian’s last six matches, Partick were BTTS in each of their final two group games in the Scottish League Cup.
• Both teams have scored in four of the last five meetings between Arsenal and Manchester City.

Over 2.5 Goals Tips

An over 2.5 goals treble of Brann, Heerenveen and Southampton, 1 point at 5/2.

• 14 of Brann's 16 matches in the Norwegian Eliteserien this season have produced over 2.5 goals, HamKam have seen over 2.5 land in six of their nine away games.
• Ajax have been overs in five of their last six matches, over 2.5 goals landed in 24 of Heerenveen's 34 Dutch Eredivisie matches last season.
• Watford went over 2.5 in 22 of their 46 English Championship matches last season, over 2.5 goals was a winner in 17 of Southampton's 24 league games away from home.

A roll-up of all seven pays 19/1 for 0.5 pts and a roll-up of all seven being overs pays 26/1 for 0.5pts.

Good luck with your selections on Sunday one and all.

Desmond.

To Score 2+ Goals Tips

• Hearts
• Rangers
• Double pays 4/5 bet365

Both Teams to Score Tips

• Hibernian vs Partick Thistle
• Arsenal vs Man City
• Double pays 11/5 bet365

Over 2.5 Goals Tips

• Brann vs HamKam
• Ajax vs Heerenveen
• Watford vs Southampton
• Treble pays 5/2 bet365

7 Fold Accumulator

• 7 Fold Acca pays 19/1 bet365

View our expert's Both Teams to Score Tips for this weekend’s action.

Our BTTS Acca Tips are based on statistical analysis of recent performances.

Falkenberg vs Norrby (Saturday, 16:00)

All the signs point towards goals when Falkenberg face Norrby in the Swedish Superettan on Sunday afternoon.

The hosts have been the great entertainers in the Swedish second tier this season.

That is underlined by the fact that both teams have scored in 15 of Falkenberg's 18 league games this term, which is a league-high figure.

Upon closer inspection, BTTS has landed in each of the hosts' last 11 Superettan matches.

With Norrby now set to visit, there is plenty of scope for that trend to continue.

The visitors have also been reliable on the BTTS front, with this selection proving profitable in six of their nine away matches.

Brann vs HamKam (Sunday, 16:00)

An entertaining encounter should be in store in the Norwegian Eliteserien on Sunday when Brann entertain HamKam.

The two teams come into this clash level on points and separated by just two places in the standings.

Brann's fixtures have been particularly goal-heavy this season, making both teams to score an attractive option.

In fact, both teams have contributed to the scoring in 14 of the Bergen-based club's 16 Eliteserien matches this term.

That BTTS theme was on display again in midweek when Brann won 4-2 away at Apollon in a Europa Conference League qualifier.

The fact that BTTS has clicked in five of HamKam's eight league games away from home this season only strengthens the case for more of the same on Sunday.

Kongsvinger vs Haugesund (Sunday, 16:00)

Goals should be on the menu when Kongsvinger and Haugesund go head-to-head in the Norwegian OBOS Ligaen on Sunday afternoon.

This is a huge clash at the top of the table, with the pair occupying first and third place respectively and separated by just one point.

Both teams are well known for playing on the front foot, and neither is likely to sacrifice their attacking principles here.

That should set the stage for an end-to-end encounter, with BTTS looking like a strong selection.

Moreover, both teams have scored in 14 of Kongsvinger's 17 OBOS Ligaen matches this season.

The same is also true of all 14 of Haugesund's 17 league games in the Norwegian second tier this term.

Euro BTTS Treble

• Falkenberg vs Norrby
• Brann vs HamKam
• Kongsvinger vs Haugesund
• Treble pays 2/1 (bet365)

Euro BTTS Bonkers Bet

• Falkenberg, Brann & Kongsvinger To Win & BTTS – 21/1 (bet365)

While many punters naturally gravitate towards backing a winner, betting on a draw can be a smart and rewarding alternative.

This is because bookmakers typically assign bigger odds to stalemates, which occur less often than victories for either team.

With that in mind, let’s examine this weekend’s fixtures and identify the games where draw outcomes present the best value.

Bolton vs Preston (Saturday, 12:30)

There could be little to separate Bolton and Preston when the pair face off in the English Championship on Saturday lunchtime. Both teams were accustomed to draws in their respective divisions last season, and there is plenty of scope for the spoils to be shared in this contest. Indeed, Bolton were involved in 18 draws on their way to promotion from English League One last season.

As for Preston, they ranked among the English Championship's highest sides when it came to draws last term, with 15 of their 46 matches ending all square.

Aberdeen vs Dundee (Saturday, 15:00)

The draw looks worth backing when Aberdeen take on Dundee in the last 16 of the Scottish League Cup on Saturday. The Dons will be seeking revenge after being soundly beaten 2-0 by the Dark Blues in the Scottish Premiership away from home last weekend. However, getting the better of Dundee could prove beyond Aberdeen, particularly given how well Steven Pressley's side performed in their last away outing when pushing Celtic all the way in a narrow 1-0 defeat at Celtic Park.

This cup tie could be a tight, low-scoring affair, with a 0-0 or 1-1 draw holding appeal. Don't be surprised if extra time or penalties are needed to separate the pair at Pittodrie.

Elgin vs Kelty Hearts (Saturday, 15:00)

A close-fought contest could be on the cards when Elgin City face Kelty Hearts in Scottish League Two on Saturday afternoon. The hosts have picked up four points from their opening two league games of the season, the most recent of which was a 1-1 draw at home to Forfar last weekend. Elgin also came close to holding Kilmarnock to a draw at home during the group stages of the Scottish League Cup, while Kelty Hearts played out a 1-1 draw with Queen of the South in the same competition. A similar scoreline at Borough Briggs looks worth backing.

Weekend Draw Treble

• Bolton vs Preston
• Aberdeen vs Dundee
• Elgin vs Kelty Hearts
• Treble pays 38/1 (bet365)