ITALY are in the play-offs because they couldn't handle Spain's brilliance – and now face a tough route to Russia.
Sweden stand in their way and can't be under-estimated after finishing just two points behind France and four ahead of Holland.
They were expected to struggle in the absence of Zlatan Ibrahimovic but coach Janne Andersson has shrugged off the loss and built a team with a strong spine and spirit.
Sweden netted more goals (26) than France in Group A with their goals coming from players such as Marcus Berg, Emil Forsberg and Oli Tiovanen.
Italy netted 20 goals as they finished second to France and also have an exciting side who don't do 1-0s any more and five out of their six qualifiers featured three or more goals and they only managed clean sheets against minnows Liechtenstein and Albania.
They have plenty of exciting forwards including Ciro Immobile, Andrea Belotti and Stephan El Shaarawy.
So while first legs are usually cautious this one could buck the trend and I'm on over 2.5 match goals at 17-10 with Marathonbet which is a fair price.
Sweden v Italy over 2.5 goals