IF anything is going to get things started then it should be the Southwell fibresand.
December 15.2pts down, well done all winners and good luck for Monday.
Ladies First caught my eye last month when running her debut race against a big fancy of mine Ciaoadiosimdone. It was an outstanding run by Ladies First who was slowish away.
She ran mid division but didn’t get the run of the race turning for home as she had to wait longer for room as the first two got a jump on her. She must have been at least eight lengths down when getting going but even just inside the furlong marker Ladies First on the far rail was being hampered as another runner was leaning on her.
Ladies First was only beaten 2 1/2 lengths by my hot fancy Ciaoadiosimdone, what else caught my eye was her high knee action and I said straight away to a friend that she has to go to Southwell and when she does I’m on her.
She should have been a lot closer to the 85 rated Ciaoadiosimdone and the highest rated here is Ghaseedah on 70 then Holiday Girl on 65 so she looks well in here. She still has to prove she will handle the fibresand but I say she will and if potential isn’t enough for you then add in the factor that Ladies First is a full sister to Hoof It.
Razin’ Hell certainly doesn’t need to prove anything on this surface as he is a five-time course and distance winner and has only been out of the first three once in eight runs over this distance here.
His last run over 6f here was a win and his last run was a decent fourth over 5f here. Now he has his optimum conditions he has to be advised at what could prove to be massive double-figure odds.
Something Lucky may look like he has something to prove on this surface with his only previous run here being a 13th of 13 beaten 37 lengths a year ago. But what people should know is that the jockey lost his irons leaving the stalls.
I advised the winner in that race Landing Night at 6-1 but it’s a race that can be wiped from Something Lucky’s CV. He looks like he won’t have a problem on the surface and looks on a low mark now of 48 when he has been as high as 92.
Bold Spirit is yet to win here from two visits and those runs at Southwell have been his latest two. Although not winning he has been a very creditable second beaten a neck and fourth beaten three lengths.
He proved in both those races that he handles the surface. Last time out when fourth he didn’t get the run of the race and found very little room. His rivals here are way below what he met last time so even over this less suitable distance he should still take a bit of stopping.
Johnb’s Monday Tips
- Southwell 12:20 – Ladies First 4-1 b365
- Southwell 1:50 – Razin’ Hell 11-1 betvictor
- Southwell 2:20 – Something Lucky 3-1 NB b365
- Southwell 2:50 – Bold Spirit 7-2 NAP b365
- Also 0.25pt Yankee 4-1 10-1 3-1 7-2