I hope you all managed to have a read of the Thanksgiving previews as we bounced back in style with a comfortable 3/1 TD scorer win as Dawson Knox found the endzone.
NFL Week 12.
There's a lot of close lines and low totals this week, only one game making it to a TD, and only one game expected to top 50 points.
A few which caught my eye this week but I'm going to plump with the Chargers taking care of business in Denver. They're under a field goal favourite, so just the right side to get that hook and it looks like Justin Herbert is back in form after helping his team put up a ton of point against the Steelers last week.
Austin Ekeler has a good matchup on the ground against the 6th worst run defense in the league and will be looking to add to his TD total after 2 receiving and 2 rushing TDs last weekend.
My one worry is the Chargers defense being sub-optimal, especially against the run and Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon performing well this year but if this turns into a shoot-out, which it could, there's only one winner.
Chargers -2.5 everywhere.
With not many points expected in a lot of the games tonight it seems like an over would be the sensible bet but I'm sticking with Unders and going for the Falcons vs. Jags being as terrible as it seems it will be on paper.
The Falcons were shut out last week and while Cordarrelle Patterson could return I still don't think it's enough for a depleted Falcons offense and Matt Ryan behind a terrible offensive line, if Patterson misses out then this total isn't getting anywhere close.
The Jaguars offense hasn't worked all year and now loses Jamal Agnew who had provided a spark to them through the season, it should mean more for Laviska Shenault, but who knows, it's a mess. They will have James Robinson back though which should help them more the ball on the ground at least.
Falcons v Jaguars under 45.5
Best TD Scorer;
There's a couple of near even money shots on running backs who have been scoring in recent weeks. I'm going homer pick with Joe Mixon at 10/11 for the Bengals against the Steelers. He's scored in 7 games in a row and while the Steelers defense will be better with TJ Watt back I think the Bengals have figured something out with Mixon and he'll find the end-zone again.
Joe Mixon – 20/21 (365)
I'm struggling for time a little here, but there were two I liked. Mike Gesicki o3.5 receptions at 4/6, this was creeping up but with the line dropping back to 3.5 I can happily get on board.
The pick for this post though is Dontrell Hilliard o22.5 rec. yards for the Titans. They are severely depleted at pass-catcher so will look to negate defensive pressure by dumping off to the running back. He had nearly 50 last week as they tried to come back against the Texans, they will likely be trailing against the Pats so he should get some use in this one as well.
They also released Adrian Peterson from the backfield this week so it looks like Foreman and Hilliard with McNichols ruled out through concussion.
Dontrell Hilliard o22.5 rec. yards – 5/6 (Most)