I FOUND myself scraping the barrel a bit on Tuesday night even though there were two Premier League games and a vital Serie A clash taking place.
It just proves “no bet” is sometimes the best option but that wouldn't go down well on a tipping site.
Luckily the Wednesday card is more inviting with Chelsea v Spurs, nine Serie A matches, two in La Liga and the SFL play-offs for starters.
Milesey's put on comprehensive round-ups on the Chelsea game and Serie A fixtures so I'll start where he dares not venture – and that's with the SFL ties.
For my Super Single I'm finding it difficult to resist Peterhead who head back to Hampden to face Queen's Park four days after beating their closest rivals 3-0.
Peterhead have been the team of the second half of the Third Division season, finishing second behind Rangers after a run of eight successive wins – all to nil barring their 2-1 Ibrox success.
So I was delighted to see them priced up as big as 7-5 with bet365 and Coral. Queen's haven't finished the season too well with two defeats and four wins in their last six and on current form and the evidence of Saturday can't live with the Blue Toon who are 8-13 at Ladbrokes to qualify over two legs.
First-scorer betting on SFL games isn't available with all firms but as site regulars know McBookie.com list them on their website. And if you fancy a dabble the man to back is Rory McAllister who banged in 11 goals in seven games before being rested last week. He is 4-1 at McBookie.com.
The other play-offs are tougher to call but Dunfermline should have too much quality for Forfar and look worth taking at 6-4 with Paddy Power. I don't know what happened to the Pars at the weekend as they dropped into the relegation play-off spot by losing at home to Airdrie but maybe it was nerves – or just that they needed some more matches to please the administrators.
Their last two away games saw them hold First Division champions Partick Thistle 3-3 and beat second-placed Morton 1-0 so they should be able to go to a packed Station Park and carve out a crucial first-leg lead.
To the treble add Fiorentina at Siena in Serie A. I watched the Florence side lose at home to Roma at the weekend but they should have won and were boosted by Roma's failure against Chievo last night as they chase a Champions League spot.
Fiorentina have the firepower to take care of a Siena side who have lost three in a row to nil and and are 7-10 at Titanbet.
Complete the treble with Udinese +1 at Palermo. I was thinking about backing on-form Champions League chasers Udinese for the win after five successive victories but Palermo is never an easy place to go (except when this fixture finished 0-7 two seasons ago) and I'm happier keeping the draw on side. They are 7-10 plus one at Titanbet.
I expect to see goals at Forfar and at Brechin v Alloa – a fixture that has seen both score in eight of the last nine meetings but not in the most recent.
To them add Chelsea v Spurs and Inter v Lazio (for reasoning see Milesey's pieces) to make a both teams to score fourfold.
Super Single
Peterhead
(7-5, bet365, Coral)
Top Treble
Dunfermline
Fiorentina
Udinese +1
Pays a biggest £71.14 to a £10 stake at BetVictor
Both teams to score
Brechin v Alloa
Forfar v Dunfermline
Chelsea v Spurs
Inter v Lazio
Pays a biggest £58.40 to a £10 stake at bet365
In December 2020 we sadly 
how confident are you on both teams to score in the forfar v dunfermline match? The last time they met earlier in the season it finished 3-2 too forfar, im stuck between this game and the Leicester v watford game on thursday for my treble.
BREAKING NEWS
Sir Alex Ferguson will retire at the end of the season, Manchester United confirm.
Milesey
Premier League: 1993, 1994, 1996, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013; FA Cup: 1990, 1994, 1996, 1999, 2004; League Cup: 1992, 2006, 2009, 2010; Uefa Champions League: 1999, 2008; Fifa Club World Cup: 2008; Uefa Super Cup: 1992; Uefa Cup Winners Cup: 1991; Inter-Continental Cup: 1999; FA Charity/Community Shield: 1990 (shared), 1993, 1994, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011.
Milesey
The day all Man United fans have dreaded is finally here as Sir Alex Ferguson announces his retirement, but who will be taking his mighty reins?
Betfair‘s next Manchester United manager market has been around for 12 years, dating back to when Sir Alex Ferguson first discussed retirement. Football’s landscape has altered so drastically that Louis van Gaal, David O’Leary and Carlos Queiroz all once traded at less than 5.0 for the vacancy.
However, what has now become the most anticipated appointment in football management history has already seen punters shaping this into a two-horse race.
After a week of rumours linking Jose Mourinho with a move back to Chelsea, the Special One has now joined Everton’s long-touted manager David Moyes as the market leaders.
Current Real Madrid boss Mourinho is the slight favourite at 2.38, with Moyes trading just behind him at 2.72, although the prices are changing all the time.
Both men are widely expected to leave their current posts at the end of the season, with some observers suggesting that Moyes has long been earmarked as Fergie’s successor.
However, the waters have now been muddied by Mourinho’s candid comments about his desire to move back to management in England after a stormy three-year spell at Madrid.
Other notables in the market include Borussia Dortmund coach Jurgen Klopp, available at 10.0 and ex-striking legend Ole Gunnar Solskjaer at 32.0, who is nearing the end of his contract with Molde.
Other playing legends Ryan Giggs and Gary Neville are currently available at 60.0 and 80.0 respectively.
Ferguson leaves a legacy of 38 trophies in his time as United boss, including 13 titles, two Champions League crowns, five FA Cups and four League Cups.
Milesey
nearly crashed on my home way home from work when it came over the radio horrendous storms and rain on a busy highway and just as I change lanes a decide too reach for the volume + button lol
Will be interesting to see who gets the job
Milesey, got to be Moyes has it not?
He has just come into 2.0, while Mourinho is drifting out now, gone out to 3.8.
Milesey
Milesey/Paul : Has any other modern time manager came close to Fergie’s “legacy”, South American?? I cant think of anyone at all,,Absolute Scottish Legend,,,and what a pair of shoes to fill…
Moyes has always had his hat in ring but where I reckon his disadvantage lies is obviously ‘european pedigree’ something which Mr Mourinho has from his day’s at Porto and each club thereafter.
Moyes is the bookies favourite, and shortening, as you say Milesey, I just dont know if the Man Utd board will be 100% because of this ‘gap’ in Mr Moyes CV…
Such a difficult decision for the board, to find a man who can step into that job after such a legacy has been created.
ryan, I’m confident enough to tip them but I can’t guarantee goals, no one can. But that’s my prediction, and the game you refer to was a cup game right at the start of the season.
in Switzerland. Each of FC Zurich’s last five Super League home games have gone Over 2.5 Goals and so have 6/8 FC Basel away matches.
Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.9 in FC Zurich v FC Basel
Milesey
Lok.Zagreb tonigh 6;30 kick off 11/4 bet 365 .
Portimonese @ 1.571
Bellinzona @ 1.444
Double Pays 2.27 @ BetVictor
Benfica B v Porto B is a game which may interest those who are looking at the BTTS market. Benfica B have seen both teams scoring in 10 of their last 12 home games. The last home game in which both teams didn’t score was last year, 29th December, a 1-0 defeat to Freamunde. Porto B can’t quite match that, however BTTS has featured in their last three games in addition to 6 of their last 8 away games.
Various bookmakers are offering best odds of 1.62, although some bookies are offering odds as low as 1.5, which I expect will be around that mark close to kick off.
Peterhead already cut to 5/4.
….on Bet365
John, hopefully Peterhead will live up to the hype. And for anyone not doing them as a single I’d suggest putting them in the treble instead of Dunfermline. Just didn’t want to have Peterhead in both lines. I’ve risked a trixie on Peterhead, Dunfermline and Udinese all at good prices but at the the end of the day it’s three ways so nothing is guaranteed.
£5 on Chelsea + At Madrid or Draw returns £13, budget of £25 a week, first bet this week.
SINGLE : UDINESE
DOUBLE : PETERHEAD / A.MADRID
PETERHEAD
UDINESE
CAGLIARI
GENOA
A.MADRID
Treble – SpartaPrague – Rosenborg – Lyngby
Double – Fenerbahce – LegiaWarsaw
Away Double – Shakhtar – AustriaVienna
Single – Zenit St Petersburg
Both 2 Score
Odessa – Dnipro
Zurich – Basel
CeltaVigo – Athletico Madrid
Italy Anytime Goal Scorers
Antonio Di Natale (Udinese)
Edinson Cavani (Napoli)
Mauro Emanuel Icardi (Sampdoria)
Going for a Turkish double today in the second leg of the playoffs and taking both home sides. Tranzonspor lost their first leg 1:2 but are much stronger at home against a Sivasspor side with 4 defeats and 1 draw in their last 5 away matches. Fenerbahce are always strong at home and they should turn around the 1:1 from the first leg.
Double @ 3.05
17:00 Trabzonspor v Sivasspor, Trabzonspor @ 1.91
19:30 Fenerbahce v Eskisehirspor, Fenerbahce @ 1.60
After reports of United wanting a Scot to replace Sir Alex there were several sightings of Mr F at Uniteds training ground but when asked about the job he replied “i just wanted my golf ball back”
John, very good. I’ve had my spell as a coach and not sure if I’d go back to it.
Two BTTS tonight.
Real Madrid v Malaga – Real have won there last 5 home games in La Liga, and the away team have scored in all of them. Although Malaga away form is poor they have scored in 4 of there last 5, and should be up for this game as they as they have a Europa league place to play for.
4/6 BTTS
5/6 > 3.5
5/6 Goal before 21 minutes
Belenenses v Arouca 1st v 2nd in Portugal’s second division, Belenenses have already won the league and have an excellent home record. But Arouca still have a lot to play for to guarantee promotion.
4/6 BTTS
17/2 Correct score 2 – 1 (Belenenses seem to win by this margin regularly)
all @ bet365
This is my first go at tipping; please don’t sell your house, cat, restaurant or youngest child to bet on these. It’s only an opinion ;)
Kim Jong – you’ll get it in the neck like everyone else who F’s up on this site :-) ;-)
Does anyone have any additional info about the Zenit v Anzi cup game later apart form the readily avaliable stats. Are any important players missing for either side. I fancy Zanit on paper due to Anzi’s terrible away form but have some big players that can do damage on their day.
Heard Sir Alex looking for new challenge Stevenage or Clydebank maybe :)
We always knew this day would come but that doesn’t mean it feels any less strange.
On Tuesday evening, when rumours surfaced that Sir Alex Ferguson might be about to leave Manchester United, everybody, from fans who were born on the day he was appointed to retired players and senior politicians, hit cyberspace to ask: is it true? Many people, myself included, implored the club to say it ain’t so. This morning, supporters and seasoned commentators alike are stunned by the confirmation: Sir Alex Ferguson will retire at the end of the season.
It’s very difficult (nay, impossible) to imagine life without him. I write as a life-long fan who has never followed United under anybody else. Supporters of other clubs, who have seen bosses come and go, are entitled to roll their eyes. Reds have had it very good for a very long time, we’re a sheltered bunch for whom the turbulent waters of modern football now await as they never have before. To us, Sir Alex was United. Moyes 1.38, Mourinho 5.6 or somebody else to replace him? Frankly, they’re all the same at this point.
Reading the words on the BBC Sport website – “Manchester United confirm Sir Alex Ferguson will retire at the end of the season” – triggers memories of the spring afternoon two decades ago when the news flashed up on the Sunday Grandstand ticker: “Manchester United win the Premier League.” The Reds’ nearest rivals, Aston Villa, had lost to Oldham and the thing we’d waited for, the thing we’d watched our rivals on Merseyside and north London do for so long, had happened. Championis!
Now the man who ended the 26 year wait is departing after 26 years. He arrived at Old Trafford a slender, serious Scot who, in stewarding Aberdeen to European glory, had demonstrated the high standards that might help restore United to the pinnacle of English football. Initially, it looked unlikely and, when the Stretford End unfurled its infamous banner – “Time up” – it appeared that the man who the 1988 club annual labelled “Britain’s second most famous Fergie” would be cast among the footnotes of the post-Busby interregnum.
That changed when United won the 1990 FA Cup, Mark Robins’ headed goal in the third round and Lee Martin’s final strike as significant as Teddy Sheringham and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s heroics nine years later. Long before, when things were really tough, Ferguson drove the M6 alone, in the early hours, listening to tapes of Bill Shankly interviews from the 1960s. Shankly influenced Ferguson as artists influence one another across generations, in an enduring, private conversation. In 2013, the Liverpool legend’s centenary year, Ferguson leaves United having surpassed his achievements and matched his integrity.
Under Sir Alex, United should have won more in Europe. In 1997 and 2002, the Champions League opened up for them and they should also have fared better in their finals against Barcelona. Could Ferguson have made a stand against the Glazers? Perhaps, but maybe he did more good from within than he could have from without. These aren’t insignificant doubts, even about a manager who won 49 trophies with United, but his legacy extends beyond Old Trafford: the panache his teams played with, the players he brought to the Premier League, the example he set for everybody. “Talent is not enough. Hard work is not enough. You have to ask yourself: ‘what do I believe in?'” he said on winning the league in 2003.
Tickets for Sunday’s match against Swansea will be as hard to get as they were for the 1994 fixture against Everton, days after the passing of Sir Matt Busby. Like that day, it will be a moving occasion. I’ve met Sir Alex Ferguson in many dreams (he is forever trying to decide whether I’ve got what it takes to be his substitute goalkeeper) but, like all supporters, I don’t know him.
There’s more to life than football but, on Sunday, Ferguson will watch a significant portion of his come to an end. The same is true for supporters.
Milesey
Great piece of reading Milesey,,,This is almost like an obituary, I remember being a young lad on the terraces of Celtic Park and dreading the visit of an excellent Aberdeen team and their upstart of a manager, who was this man who had the audacity to break up 100 years of a strangle hold of the ‘old firm’ in Scotland.
Not only was Pittodrie a fortress where few teams came away with nothing more than a football lesson and a quite 6 hour bus journey home but places like Ibrox and Celtic Park no longer held any fear to this man and his team, he would swagger along the touchline, chewing his gum watching his team take another victory back up north.
And with little or no budget took his Aberdeen sqaud to league titles, cup finals and all the way to european glory.
He paved the way for Dundee Utd to become the ‘new firm’ such was his influence on Scottish football, with Celtic & Rangers regularly battling for 3rd and 4th place while Aberdeen and Dundee Utd both won european trophies, some say it was the most refreshing era in scottish football.
And as they say ‘the rest is history’.#LEGEND
John, Fergie’s a great boss but couldn’t lace Budgie McGhie’s boots. Been Clydebank boss since day one in the juniors and taken them from zero to third best side in the West which is some achievement.
After the shock of Fergies retirement sinks in, will you be posting your tips for the golf this week? The Players is one of my favourites, cheers
Mark, golf tips will be up later but Milesey’s put them on as a comment already.
bonkers bet
chelsea 3 v 2 spurs
celta vigo 2 v 3 a. madrid
win win double
You having a go at the cricket today Milesey?
I’m tempted by CSK at 8/13 but Hyderabad have won every game at home. Chennai won 7 in a row before their collapse last time out against Mumbai. I fancy them to bounce back.
IPL CRICKET
————
Sunrisers Hyderabad v Chennai Super Kings
Wednesday 8th May, 15:30 BST
Live on ITV4 and itv.com
Sunrisers Hyderabad
Hyderabad continue to surprise. The fade that many expected them to suffer in the second half of the IPL group stage just hasn’t happened and with seven wins from 11 games only an inferior net run rate keeps them outside the play-off places. Kumar Sangakkara may be struggling with his own form – he’s dropped then reinstated himself, moved up and down the order and now handed over the wicketkeeping gloves in a fruitless search for runs – but there is no denying that he has built up a real team ethos which has kept the Sunrisers punching far above their weight. With the ball, Dale Steyn continues to be miserly and has the best economy rate of any bowler in this IPL who has taken more than 10 wickets, whilst Amit Mishra remains third in the overall wicket-taking table with 17. The problem is that until the batsmen start scoring some runs (their top scorer is Hanuma Vihari with a meagre 166) that net run rate is going to be a problem and they need to not only win, but win with some comfort in order to make those play-offs.
Chennai Super Kings
Chennai sit atop the table with nine wins from 12 games, but Saturday’s heavy defeat in Mumbai cost them the chance to seal an automatic play-off spot by winning in Hyderabad. MS Dhoni will hope that that clumsy defeat, in which they were bowled out for 79 and leading batsman Michael Hussey was dropped three times in an over en route to top scoring with 22, serves as a wake-up call, as defeat here opens up the possibility of them missing the post-season altogether. On the positive side, Chris Morris is at last showing some of the form that made him Chennai’s biggest signing of the 2013 auction and Dwayne Bravo’s excellent run with the ball continued as he picked up another wicket to make him the first to 20 this season. Both will fancy their chances of taking wickets against the lacklustre Hyderabad batting, the bigger question is whether their own batsmen can recover from the weekend’s performance against Steyn, Mishra & co?
Venue and Conditions
The Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium has been a happy hunting ground for the Sunrisers so far. They’ve won every home match, the last two by six and seven wickets. It isn’t the easiest ground to score runs on, with the top first innings score being 130, and the only time that a team has won batting first was in the hosts’ opening game, when they beat an already weak Pune side. There are some heavy rain showers predicted for the afternoon, but these are expected to clear up by the time the game starts and with temperatures still in the high thirties even at 8.30pm there shouldn’t be a delayed start.
Match odds
Hyderabad are 2.46 outsiders to Chennai’s 1.62. Given their unbeaten home record, which includes sides currently above them in the table such as Bangalore and Rajasthan, that looks a good value bet to me, especially if they get to bat second.
Top Hyderabad Batsman
There’s been a temptation all through this season to back Sangakkara purely on the basis that he’s a world class batsman who has to come good eventually. Well, it hasn’t happened yet and watching him scratch around as his team chased down 80 to beat Delhi at the weekend it doesn’t look like happening any time soon, so resist that temptation. Instead, back another of Hyderabad’s overseas stars in Darren Sammy, who is striking the ball very well and who has been batting higher up the order than Sangakkara. He should be priced at around 5.0.
Top Chennai Batsman
Hussey is always the safe bet for Chennai, even managing to stop score in the weekend debacle, but for that reason he’ll be short odds. There will be better odds to have on Dhoni, who often promotes himself up the order following bad performances and who should be available at around 4.4.
Recommended Bet:
Back Sunrisers Hyderabad at 2.46 to win.
Milesey
A. Madrid,Juve and Lyngby 11/2 treble for me tonight
Acca for Tonight
Chelsea v Tottenham btts
Real Madrid v Malaga btts
Rosenborg v Tromso btts
Palermo v Udinese +1
Two of my brothers are going over to the Swansea game, got their tickets a few months ago, little did they know how big a game they were going to
Went for Chelsea (Win) and Fiorentina (Win) double.
Good luck to everyone
Did you notice that all of Sunday’s Serie A games ended up as home wins?
I’m going to chance £1 on all of them being away wins tonight.
Stuart, I noticed that and commented because I needed Napoli late for the treble. Much easier getting a run of home wins than away wins so good luck with that one. It will be a huge price.
These games in Norway 3rd division look good for the overs if I find them inplay somewhere.
http://www.soccervista.com/Norway-3__Division_avd__1-2013-830628.html
Celta Vigo vs Atletico Madrid ko 18.30
Ive been back and fourth on this game, and whilst 5/2 on a home win looks big given Celta need I wonder if they would consider taking a point against the 3rd best team in la liga. Much depends on Atletico attitude and its always risky betting on a team with nothing on the game (Swansea last night was a prime example) So in the end I went with Celta’s main man Iago Aspas to score. He is 15/8 with skybet.
BET Aspas to score
Good luck if your having a bet
First bet of the day successful as Benfica B v Porto B both score :)
For a Wednesday night, there’s quite a few decent games on!
Will be on a Peterhead Single again
Vejle / Lyngby Double
Fernebache/Sampadoria/ Napoli treble
Good luck everyone :)
torino v genoa – the draw is 7/10 so could be some value backing home and away win at 2/1 & 4/1
Craig, I think the draw is priced short for a reason.
Why are there two game in serie a tonite where the draw is so short?
My tips:
Chelsea 10/11
Peterhead 6/5
£15 returns £63
£20 BTTS double
Chelsea v spurs
Forfar v Dunfermline
Returns £46.67
£2 first scorer double balotelli and bale
£3 on Chelsea to draw 0-0 as a cover
Atlanta vs Juventus
Juve have won 14 out of 16 previous meeting and have scored 16 goals in their last 5 visits to Atlanta.
BET JUVENTUS TO BEAT ATLANTA 11/10
BET JUVENTUS SCORE OVER 1.5 GOALS 6/5
Good luck if your having a bet
Bellinzona 3-0 up and Portimonense are leading 2-1. Backed Portimonense’s opponents double chance (Win/Draw) for a bit of insurance. Good day betting with my BTTS bet on Benfica B and Porto B coming through. :)
Double is down :(
Over 2.5 goals in the 5 Daniah divison 1 games up after 60 mins though!
Can’t remember last time I got a 5 team line up!:)
Be a little wary of backing Juventus tonight. Nothing to play for and have already won the league.
They are without Buffon, Vucinic, Vidal, Pogba, Marchisio, Bonucci, Giovinco and Lichtsteiner.
The likes of Pirlo and Chiellini are still playing mind you.
Probably explains the larger than expected price on the away win.
Paul, Im gonna disagree with ya and go for Palermo to beat Udinese. Dont know if Udinese wid get out alive if they were to win…qualifying for European fitba no matter much when yer laid up in a hospital bed at best recovering from fans dishing out retribution!!!
Guido, wonder what happened when they won there 7-0 two seasons ago?
Aye think the locals shot the coach n team after that.. ;-) i recall it wasnt 3rd last game of the season with Palermo badly needing points to stay up like tonite
Fair point Elliot, I just think Juve are still a class above tonight opponents.
thechief, only reason I didn’t back Juve was because of the title being sealed, don’t know how much they’ve been partying.
91st minute equaliser for Guimares demolishes my profit on my double. At least I covered Guimares win/draw in-play, so my stake is returned.
Milesey i already posted the tips for dutching you just repeated what i said…..
They still dont work the secret to sucessful betting is having a good staking plan yet no one wants to share what a surprise, come on mr f lets here your views
If you know how to do it, what obviously you really don’t for you wouldn’t have done 13 races , so you actually don’t know how to do it ;) ;)
Milesey
get in oscar :)
Bet £5 lose £5
Bet £10 lose £15
Bet £15 lose £30
Bet £30 lose £60
…..etc etc somemone on here must have a better plan than that ?
Yes you can get 4-7 losers in a row dutching so how do u pros recover….please share dont be shy ;)
4 – 7 losers ?
i don’t get what you mean ?
Milesey
like any betting system everyone gets a bad run….even you lol….so whats ur get out
How do u recover losses or do u all just play to lose in the long run anyway ?
You do your homework, it’s as simple as that, i do 3 – 4 races a day, and i’m happy with 200 – 400 profit from them. You seem to make it hard by doing 13 races, i couldn’t pick 13 races a day and i know most horses inside out, i can do 4 races a day quite easy.
Milesey
Milesey instead of u trying to be a smart arse explain a good staking plan…im sure all us punters would actually like to know one that can return
am i backing them tips ?
I work along side people who tip horses for a living, some bag thousands a week, but they don’t back their selections though………. and if i am dutching i’m not backing 1 horse, i could be backing 5 a race, but oh well, i don’t want you to believe me and what i earn etc….. for thats none of your business, but i’m not on here moaning like you seem to be everyday.
Milesey
I put a single on Dunfermline tonight, came on here to see what you guys thought and was encourage you agreed with dunfermline… did not see this result coming
weordie, it’s certainly a shock. Pars weren’t a banker by any means but expected them to win.
Well what a shitty top Dunfermline was a was between them and Juventus and went with urs and only team letting me down :-(
Dunfermline deserve to fold with a performance like this. Coupon pumped at half time :(
Jimbos, best bet would be for you to nip off and look at another site. Your comments have been boring me for a while now.
r ya sure Jimbos not Badhan and a few other aliases hed used that escape me Mf F?..i detect a similar thread for a number of weeks..
Guido,Scouse,Paul,Milesey etc….I think we are all a tolerant bunch,,but that P***k ‘Jimbo’ is really getting on my last nerve,,,every day he blames and moans about something,,now he is back onto milesey and ‘staking plans’ or ‘dutching’,,I rarely back horses and I can understand exactly how the systems work,,,basic arithmetic Jimbo!!! The other day ‘Jimbo’ basically wanted my bank account details,,income/outcome,LOL,, the winge that day was “profit/loss”
Admin,,for the sake of his and our sanity,,please block him !!!
IPL CRICKET – THURSDAY
————————————
Kings XI Punjab vs Rajasthan Royals
Start Time: BST (11:30)
TV: Live on ITV and itv.com
Kings XI Punjab
Despite rarely looking like play-off material, Kings XI are far from out of it. They’ll need to win four of their last five matches, but that’s exactly how many are at home, where their record so far is three from four. The latest victory needed a truly remarkable innings from David Miller, the third fastest century in T20 history, to turn around a game that Bangalore had comprehensively bossed until his arrival at the crease. Miller has been easily their star man but, to make further progress, he’ll need better back-up.
Rajasthan Royals
Thanks primarily to a 100% home record, Rajasthan are almost in the play-offs. Using historical comparisons of the points table, one more win should be enough, two more from their last four games would be plenty. Monday’s nine-wicket victory over Delhi was as facile as they come in IPL. All the top-three look in fine touch and with Brad Hodge coming in at six, this side has some huge totals in them.
First Innings Runs
Just how many runs are enough at Mohali? The last two first innings totals of 185 and 190 were chased down, the latter with two overs to spare. Clearly the usual quote around 3.5 for 180 and over appeals, although as always, much depends which team bats first. I remain sceptical about Punjab’s depth if Miller doesn’t perform and would be more inclined towards backing unders when they bat first. If Rajasthan get first crack though, don’t hesitate to back 180 and 200 plus because they certainly have enough depth.
Match odds
Everything we’ve seen so far at Mohali suggests this match will be high-scoring. Picking the winner therefore boils down to which side can be better trusted to score a massive total and on that count, it has to be Rajasthan at 1.9. Whereas they bat all the way down, Punjab’s top and lower order is weak. Fast bowlers often thrive early on at Mohali, so I could see James Faulkner making swift inroads, again leaving Punjab reliant on Miller.
Top Punjab batsman
Miller has now top-scored in four of the last six Punjab’s innings so could be due a failure. His partner for Monday’s remarkable chase was Rajagopal Sathish so, having showed he’s no slouch with the bat, could be worth following regularly around the 15.0 mark in a side prone to early collapse and often reliant on the middle order to save them.
Top Rajasthan batsman
It’s easy to make a strong case for several Rajasthan batsmen, particularly Rahul Dravid, Ajinkya Rahane or Shane Watson, one of whom is likely to bat through most of the innings. On this occasion, I’ll choose Watson for his ability to clear the boundaries, which is usually the criteria at Mohali.
Recommended bet
Back Rajasthan Royals @ 1.9
************************
Pune Warriors v Kolkata Knight Riders
Start Time: 15:30 BST
TV: Live on ITV4 and ITV.com
Pune Warriors
Pune are bottom of the IPL pile after twelve games that have yielded just two solitary wins. Incredibly, one of those victories was an emphatic one over league leaders the Super Kings and that is a frustrating indication of what this talented but underperforming squad could have achieved.
One of the issues for the Warriors throughout this competition has been an inability to find a settled team and after skipper Michael Clarke had to withdraw before the tournament had begun, replacement Angelo Mathews took over but his own performances failed to warrant a start.
Unlike other sides, Pune have now tried all their overseas players in an attempt to find a balanced team but they’ve failed to do so and aside from Aaron Finch, nobody has really shown any form. Currently, Pune look as if they can’t wait for IPL 6 to end and it’s hard to see the Warriors battling for points on Wednesday.
Kolkata Knight Riders
Last season’s Champions KKR won their opening game so comfortably against Delhi that it seemed certain that Gautam Gambhir’s men would cruise into the top four. Since then however, there have been just three wins from eleven to put the Knight Riders on the brink of elimination.
Kolkata’s campaign wasn’t helped by an early injury to Brendon McCullum who has now left the IPL to join up with New Zealand’s tour of England. But the real disappointments have been two key players – Jacques Kallis and Yusuf Pathan.
KKR have kept faith in Kallis, despite a poor return with bat and ball while Pathan has been shunted around the batting order with little effect in any position. Kolkata’s ultimate elimination is down to a number of additional factors and if they were playing anyone other than Pune, Gambhir’s men could expect another defeat.
Venue and Conditions
In five IPL matches at the Subrata Roy Sahara Stadium this year, the average first innings score has been 143 but the lack of quality in the home side makes a par total hard to judge. Within those games, Pune have managed the lowest score of 99 while RCB bludgeoned their way to 187 last week.
However, 150 should be a minimum target for the team taking first knock on a cloudless day where temperatures are expected to peak at around 40 degrees centigrade.
Match odds
Pune’s dismal performances see them installed as the outside bet at 2.2 but it’s worth remembering that Kolkata have been equally poor at times. Those odds seem quite generous in comparison to KKR’s 1.69 but Gambhir’s side should just have enough quality to edge this.
Pune Top Batsman
Aaron Finch is the only player to show any consistent form so he’s an obvious favourite at 3.3. Even in Pune’s worst defeats, Finch has stood out but he has received great support on occasion from fellow opener Robin Uthappa who is a better bet to top score at 3.75.
Kolkata Top Batsman
Gambhir started the tournament in prolific form and was carrying the side at one point but twelve runs from his last three knocks suggest that the responsibility has drained him. Gambhir remains favourite here at 3.3 but in contrast with his skipper, Manvinder Bisla has improved as the tournament has developed and is a better option at 5.0.
Recommended Bet
Back Kolkata to win at 1.69
***********************
DOUBLE
********
Rajasthan Royals @ 1.9
Kolkata @ 1.69
Milesey
BOXING
*******
Ricky Burns’ clash with Jose Gonzalez in defence of his WBO title…
******************************************************
They say that a change is as good as a rest. Ricky Burns will certainly be hoping so as he’s experienced both in recent months. This weekend we find out if that has been a blessing or a hindrance as Burns defends his WBO title against Puerto Rican puncher Jose Gonzalez.
Luck deserted Burns at the end of last year when his opponent pulled out of a December fight and the late replacement Liam Walsh was injured in a car crash. Then with a big unification clash against Miguel Vazquez approaching this spring, illness to his fellow world champion put the brakes on that too. Burns was peeved, picked up his bag and left Frank Warren to join Eddie Hearn’s flourishing Matchroom stable. After seven months out of action (the longest spell in recent years), Burns makes his debut for the new team.
On paper this looks a good piece of matchmaking with Gonzalez holding the No1 ranking within the WBO but only just inside the top 50 with Boxrec. Unbeaten in 22 fights, Gonzalez has built a reputation as a puncher with 17 stoppage wins including 10 KOs inside three rounds. There’s no doubt the Puerto Rican is still raw and he has an amateur habit of pulling back from punches in straight lines but I think he’s as dangerous as that record suggests.
Gonzalez has been fighting opponents some way removed from Burns in terms of ability but he has impressed in demolishing them nonetheless. Oscar Cuero was a late notice, eight-time losing rival but Gonzalez hammered him with a couple of crunching body shots. Eddie Soto was also halted in a round with a short, left-right combination as Gonzalez produced a scary, showreel stoppage off the back foot. There is no doubt that Gonzalez is heavy handed, he fights with poise and patience too and if he lands, this is a fight he can win.
It is though a massive step up in class for Gonzalez against a champion who seems at the top of his game, at least the last time we saw him. I was ringside in September when Burns thumped Kevin Mitchell in four rounds, a sensational, decisive performance that took most of the boxing world by surprise. Ricky looked enormous that night-he’s clearly growing into the division-and has developed a fast, effective style. The jab will be important again for Burns and he looks quicker than Gonzalez but he will have to be wary of counters off his lead punch.
There is also the danger that Burns might have gone off the boil given he has been in and out of training camps since October. Generally Burns is in the gym anyway so it may be a matter of staying focused more than anything else but it’s possible he may be jaded. The Scotsman trades on his fitness along with excellent technique so backers will have to trust that he is on it as usual. If so, Burns has the ability to control this fight and take it on points.
Gonzalez reminds me a little of Breidis Prescott who came to the UK in 2008 as an unknown with a punchers’ record and left as the man who hammered Amir Khan. He will size up as the biggest Burns has fought in the division and he looks the most dangerous too. The footage of Gonzalez shows a fighter who has improved significantly in the last two years and one who has both the weight and variety of punch to cause Burns problems and hurt him too. We just don’t know if Gonzalez is quick enough or indeed good enough and if he can hold it together at this level but I wouldn’t put anyone off a small bet. Gonzalez is one dangerous dude-with 14 KO’s from his last 16 fights-and he’s hungry too.
The pair share Joseph Laryea on their records with Burns winning in seven in 2011 and who Gonzalez sparked in just three rounds last July; further evidence that Gonzalez is the hunter here. The likelihood is that Burns will be able to control the action and perhaps outclass Gonzalez, certainly I can see that as a possibility and I have the feeling that ‘Rickster’ will be able to make his opponent miss. Gonzalez looks quite menacing if not methodical, a bit like Cotto in the early days. It could just be he’s one-paced but we won’t know until he takes this rise in class.
Burns is unbeaten in 20 fights stretching over six years, he knows how to win and remember he diffused Michael Katsidis comfortably enough. This may be a step back from the unification fights Burns was hoping for but they are on hand if he wins and given the timing as well as the emotional difficulties of the past year, this may be Ricky’s biggest test yet. I’m hoping it’ll be another Burns’ night in Scotland but there is upset in the air.
Recommended Bet
Jose Gonzalez to win by KO/TKO, currently at 4.0
Milesey
( Betfair )
FA CUP FINAL
———————
The FA Cup has become almost as much of a closed shop as the Premier League in recent years and the stats say Manchester City should have little trouble taking the trophy for the second time in three years with victory over Wigan.
But the strong figures associated with the dominance of the big six teams mean there are some good alternatives to the short-priced options of City to lift the trophy at 1.21 and to win the match in 90 minutes at 1.36.
City are now part of the big six and between them that group have won the FA Cup in 22 of the past 24 years. The big-six side has won the last 10 finals when faced by a team from outside that group, nine of them in 90 minutes and eight of them to nil. The dominance of the big six has been almost total.
Just as tellingly, top-four finishers against teams below that group have won 10 out of 10 in the Premier League era, with a 90-minute record of won nine and drawn one.
All of those figures point to a City win in 90 minutes, most probably to nil, and their excellent cup record suggests they will not fail on Saturday. Since Roberto Mancini took charge, City have had 13 wins and only one defeat out of 18 in 90-minute play in the FA Cup. The one defeat was excusable as it was against the strongest possible opponent (Manchester United last season) and only after they had been fatally weakened by Vincent Kompany’s early sending-off.
Most of Wigan’s form this season indicates they lack the class to cause an upset. The only team of note they have beaten en route to Wembley is Everton in the 3-0 quarter-final win at Goodison Park. All their other ties were against lower-league opponents (Bournemouth, Macclesfield, Huddersfield and Millwall).
And in the Premier League this season Wigan have lost nine out of 11 against big-six teams (eight of the defeats were to nil). The only big-six team they have had any success against is Tottenham, with a 1-0 away win and a 2-2 home draw, and their only other goal against a big-six team came in a 4-1 defeat at Chelsea.
It is notable that Mancini has had no problem at all with Wigan since taking over as City boss. His side have won all seven meetings and all to nil (3-0 twice, 2-0 twice and 1-0 three times).
City to win to nil at 1.89 looks a good bet, based on both the overall FA Cup final stats and the City-Wigan head-to-heads.
City have never led more than 1-0 at half-time in those seven meetings (that has been the score four times, with 0-0 on the other three occasions) and it is worth noting that the opening goal in this season’s two league matches came in the 69th minute at Wigan (in a 2-0 win) and in the 83rd minute in City’s 1-0 home win.
A half-time score of 0-0 is tempting at 3.2, although for bigger odds it might be worth trying draw/Man City on the half-time/full-time at 3.95.
The obvious second choice for the half-time score is 1-0 to City at 3.25 and that might be better than backing City/City on the half-time/full-time at 2.0.
Under 2.5 goals at 2.28 is strongly indicated, as 14 of the last 20 finals have had unders and so have five of the seven City-Wigan matches in the Mancini era.
For a correct score, 1-0 to City at 8.4 and 2-0 to City at 7.4 look the best options. Eleven of the 20 finals in the Premier League era have had one of those scorelines.
Recommended Bets
Manchester City to win to nil at 1.89
Under 2.5 goals at 2.28
Milesey
I’m a little torn in the Punjab v Rajastan game Milesey, I think a lot rests on David Miller and if he performs again I can’t see Kings XI getting beat. Both sides atill in contention for making the cut so should be a close contest.
Think I’ll see how it’s panning out and maybe try an in play bet.
I do strongly fancy KKR at 8/11 away to Pune who have had nothing short of a disaster IPL so far. KKR have shown signs that they are getting back to their best and this looks a sound bet to me.
Dravid and Watson have been playing some great cricket, If Dravid can get them going, then watson will come in and smash a few, i might wait for the toss, for if RR win and bat then i think they could get a huge total on the board, for when they can hit freely they are a great side, chasing down a total and the pressure is on them abit they seem to play within their limit, instead of just freeing their arms and smashing the ball, they are a dangerous side if they play with freedom.
Milesey
DOUBLE
********
Rajasthan Royals @ 1.9
Kolkata @ 1.69
RESULT
——
INDIA: Premier League
Kings XI Punjab 145 – 147 Rajasthan Royals
Rajasthan Royals WIN
Milesey
RESULT
——-
INDIA: Premier League
Pune Warriors India 106 – 152 Kolkata Knight Riders
Kolkata Knight Riders WIN
Milesey
Jimbo what’s your beef! I’m tolerent, but you seem to have one major chip on your shoulder. If u don’t like what you do/don’t hear then why waste your time on here. Most people on here seem to enjoy the points,reasoning behind a tip and choose whether to accept that point of view and gamble or don’t. I enjoy the pitting my wits against the system with what I deem a reasonable amount I feel able to lose and anything I get back is a Brucey Bonus. The more info u garner the more chance of a return, but it is a Gamble nowt more nowt less, just the less info u have behind it the less likely in the long run u’ll make a profit. I and many others on here appreciate the insight and I like you have the choice to use or not. U currently would appear to be losing, only u know whether it’s money u shouldn’t be playing with. However if ur losing and not learning lessons on the way then maybe this FUN pastime isn’t for you.
Scouser shows Jimbo the way(Jumbo sausage ;-) Jumbos got his chips from Mr F the nite ;-) Scouser, Brucie might be next one up in the dock with his mates Tarby n Kenny Lynch etc. Tarby’s humour always bored me…quite a pompous sod with a big fat ego to go with his fat stomach! he would stand with his arm resting on the mike stand over confidentboasting about some recent “event” with his mates and invariably start name dropping and about all his great crack at golf course backed up with “I tell ya!” at every opportune moment…eg..”Maself, Brucie, Kenny Lynch (im in my 40s…Ive never known this fella to do anything of note in the entertainment world??) and Sean (Connery) and little Ron (meaning wee Ronnie Corbett) were playing golf at Gleneagles up in Bonny Scotland…I tell ya, beautiful 5 star hotel, expensive let me tell ya, but the G n T’s n Martinis went down a treatafter we beat Kenny Lynch n Sean 2 n 1, I tell ya…anyhow, Little Ron had a nasty 6 ft slider down the hill when big Sean turns to me and says…blah blah…then ur meant to laff about some tory boy (which Tarby is) pathetic joke about him bumming hissel and mates up. Er, he gives a bad name to golfers..of which 99% are actally normal unaffected humans !! ;-)
I was wondering if we could run a King Of The Naps thread/section where anyone who is interested posts a nap of the day in any sport and if you do not post everyday u forfeit ur right to post a Nap of the day.
Could be run monthly maybe.
Can’t believe the battering Dunfermline are taking. Really thought they would win that one given their good form since going into admin (Airdrie result aside). Forfar finished 4th and were a huge 13 points behind Brechin in 3rd. If Arbroath had won they wouldn’t even have made the play offs. My fear was a draw with with being a two legged affair but didn’t expect them to hump Dunfermline quite like this.
As a toffee and mallorca fan I’ve never betted involving my teams and won’t,except Sky Super Six – No Choice.
If as potentially expected Moysie goes to Man Utd then maybe West Ham away win at Everton might be one to think of for the weekend. Currently 13/2 or 7.50-1 on BET365 hard to know maybe we could be in turmoil or it might galvanise us who knows!
I won’t be betting, but maybe someone’s got some thoughts
RESULT
————-
SCOTLAND: Division 2 – Relegation
Queen’s Park 0-1 Peterhead
Milesey
Stuck a few correct scores on RM 4-2 Malaga and Chelsea 4-2 Spurs..singles n doubles…RM 4-2 at half time!! FFS
Nice one, Paul. Last minute pen for Peterhead!
Bryan, boy did I need that.
Guido just wondering whether Mr Boardman and the germans bummed our chippy’s gonna be involved ;-)Freddy had the head of an old bat! What next !!
Scouser I bet theres a few celebs quaking in their boots waiting for a chap at the door from the polis!! :-)
Nice £200 profit with my acca listed above coming in!
P Escobar has just scored for The Strongest in Bolivia…musta got early release from the clink then or done a Lazarus???? ;-)
Widna like to be in the Udinese team bus in about 45mins time!!
Guido u not wrong lad Taggart shud sort em oot
;-)
Disappointed in Brechin not getting a goal tonight but even more disappointed in myself, had Belenenses v Arouca and R Madrid v Malaga written down but went with Brechin…that’s how it goes sometimes but i still think they should’ve got one
SilentJoe – yes indeed. I think Jumbo is a sudo, er, suderirm, erm, I mean psudonyim, em er…ANOTHER ;-) name for someone who was on the site a while ago with the same modus operandi!!? Happy to give my back details…sod all in it most of the month!! :-)
Guido,,he is just a ‘Sado’ :):)
Hope the lad that was gonna do all aways in Italy had the sense to perm 6 from 7 and left out the BANKER/CORRUPT DRAW will suit us both game between Torino n Genoa??…nice return if he did.
Guido, there looked a few aways in there. Milan were short-priced favourites and I tipped Fiorentina and Udinese as well as the draw at Torino v Genoa which was one of those that suited both sides. Think he was chucking a throwaway quid at it.
single and double won !!!!!
Thank You Mr Fixit with the +1 on Udinese! was decent odds. They got the win in the end lol.
Just won £430 thanks for all your help guys ive turned into a better better lol and won more money.
Kinda happy tonight:-D
View transaction
Bet number: 12717446
You made this bet: 2013.05.07 23:25
Type of bet: Accumulator
Total betting amount: 20.00 NGN
Possible win: 1649.40 NGN
Won: 1649.40 NGN
Green = Won
Red = Lost
Black = Not played yet
Strike = Cancelled
= Banker
No. Matchdate Bet Your type Result Score Odds
Soccer – Spain – Primera Division
1 08.05.13 18:30 RC Celta De Vigo – Atletico Madrid (1X2) Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1:3 (0:0) 2.15
Soccer – Italy – Serie A
2 08.05.13 19:45 Atalanta Bergamasca Calcio – Juventus Turin (1X2) Juventus Turin Juventus Turin 0:1 (0:1) 2.05
3 08.05.13 19:45 AC Siena – AC Fiorentina (1X2) AC Fiorentina AC Fiorentina 0:1 (0:1) 1.60
4 08.05.13 19:45 US Palermo – Udinese Calcio (1X2) Udinese Calcio Udinese Calcio 2:3 (1:1) 3.15
5 08.05.13 19:45 Bologna FC – SSC Napoli (1X2) SSC Napoli SSC Napoli 0:3 (0:0) 1.65
Soccer – Scotland – Second Division, Relegation/Promotion Playoffs
6 08.05.13 19:30 Queens Park FC – Peterhead FC (1X2) Peterhead FC Peterhead FC 0:1 (0:0) 2.25
Mike, Homicide, well done with your wins. I did OK tonight thanks mainly to Peterhead and Udinese but lost a few quid backing Dunfermline.
Brilliant, Mike,,well done mate
Homicide good to hear and hope u keep it going :-) Maybe u should let Jimbo and his ilk know your master plan or should we keep the conspiracy theory going ru really Paul or Milesey in disguise ;-)
Folks,
The best thing to do with an ignoramus is ignore him, or her!
Ian, absolutely.
Paul,,could not agree more,,no more ‘references’ from me
having a coffee and a smoke before I make the dreaded drive to work in rain and winds that would make people of Scotland realise they don’t have it so bad and naturally checking scores out of interest I don’t like backing games in the middle of the night when am not able to keep and eye on them and it will not happen again anytime soon were I will get around 18/1 for a treble of Udinese Juventus and AthelticoMadrid BUGGER IT
Danny, you’re just starting and I’m just finishing. Thought you weather was always good. I backed Udinese but slightly wary about Juventus and Atletico Madrid but relieved by Peterhead’s win.
lol wish I was just finishing. It normally is alright even in the winter months but this is taking the piss although most Perthites love the rain as the city badly needs it the shortage means monkeys like me can find themselves paying $4 for a bottle of the stuff. Athletico not so much but would have been a nervy end in the 2 Italian games
some of these aussies are STUPID 9.30 appointment to see the progress with my bad back. Receptionist on the phone ah yeh theres been a mix up mate can you come in at 10.40 and also we don’t know what to do with the bill there is 1.8 million people in Perth surely there was a receptionist out there that actually knows what day of the week it is its nae bother but hen al just lose an hours pay.
might as well look out a few tips for Thursdays bouts