ANDY MURRAY will have to end his clay curse against David Ferrer if he's to make it beyond the French Open quarter-finals on Wednesday.
The British No.1 has lost all four red-dirt meetings with the Spaniard – the last of which was three years ago at the same stage – although he leads the overall head to head 9-6 and heads into the latest clash on a 14-match winning run on clay and is 8-15 favourite at BetVictor and Boylesports.
Ferrer is 7-4 at Betway and the day's other quarter-final is a clash of titans with top seed Novak Djokovic 2-5 at the likes of Coral and Paddy Power to knock out nine-time champ Rafa Nadal, who's available at 23-10 at 888sport.
In the women's last eight Serena Williams has had a few wobbles so far but is just 1-10 at Ladbrokes and Boylesports against Sara Errani, the 7-1 underdog at bet365.
Timea Bacsinszky has looked the part in wins over Madison Keys and Petra Kvitova and the Swiss ace is 2-9 at BetVictor to reach the semis at the expense of unseeded Belgian Alison van Uytvanck (4-1, William Hill).
England's cricketers folded like a cheap seat on Tuesday to suffer a crushing 199-run defeat to New Zealand and today there's more Test action getting under way with Australia 4-9 at Ladbrokes to win the opener against West Indies (8-1, bet365).
There's also the likes of speedway and Stateside sport on the go so good luck with your best and post your sporting tips and thoughts here.
Djokovic v nadal
Set 1 over 9.5 games 4/6
Nadal to win a set 4/9
Betfair
I’ll be on both, I really don’t think this game will be as much in favour of djokovic as people are making out and although 4/9 odds will put many off this type of bet, 4/9 odds for nadal to win a set on clay just screams at me!
Good luck to anyone jumping on board.
Morning, I was out & about yesterday so no wifi & it doesn’t let me post on 4G but I was on Tsonga Nishikori over total games quite lucky.
I think both men’s matches today will go over games we could be in for the long haul.
Mark69 you mean Djokovic and Murray game right?
BEEN off a while , but tonight the NBA final is upon , post my thoughts later.
How the guys been doing ? in profit i hope…
Alright Leo, yes, I don’t think it’ll be as straight forward as the bookies make out Nadal seems to have his game back especially the forehand so should push Djokovic & Ferrer always beats Murray on clay even tho this time I think Murray will beat him but it should be close.
I’m on 2 singles & a double.
Just the one winner last night on a day of strange results, weather playing a huge part! Altogether, I lost just over 3/4 of a unit (£17).
The next 13 unit selections comes to an end with just 4.5 units won – That is a £54 loss from £20 unit stakes. Had I got 6 units, I would have made some profit.
I guess I can’t complain since I am still up over 8 units (£160) thanks to results from the previous 13
1st 13 – 11 winners
2nd 13 – 4.5 winners
Total – 15.5/26 is 60% (46% is the minimum target).
Let’s see if I can get this next set of 13 off to a good start today!
£TIP£
BRADLEY WIGGINS TO SET THE HOUR RECORD BETWEEN 54 and 54.99K 13/8 (paddypower)
air pressure will be key here, it is set to not be ideal and if it turns out the lower than expected on the day then go for plus 55K but it is predicted to be high which will probably reduce his effort by 500-600m metres, making between 54 and 54.99 a relatively safe bet! get on this!!!!
Just re-posting this from yesterday with a couple more things in Rafa’s favour today:
1) Conditions – The weather is set to be sunny this afternoon which will suit Rafa’s forehand.
2) The court – Rafa loves the additional room at the back of the court on Chatrier and is far more comfortable on here than any other court worldwide.
3) Psychology – Taking 2 sets of Rafa on clay is one thing but can Nole take 3? The slams are a different ball game to the tour events we have seen thus far.
**Just back from the French Open and I have to say I think Rafa is worth a couple of pennies tomorrow. He is a different beast on Chatrier and I feel the price is too good to ignore. He is working his way into the tournament and is regaining some of his confidence. Novak looked a little flat against Thanasi and despite the scoreline Gasquet did have chances to break. Watching Novak warm up on both days he seems to still be a little concerned about the niggle he picked up in the second round.
Nadal 3-2, 9-1 888Sport (low stake)
Nadal to win, 12-5 William Hill
Nadal to win the tournament – 4/1 Various (if Rafa does beat Nole you’d struggle to see him not winning the tournament)**
Today will be a close match and Djokovic does have a very good chance of being the second man in 71 attempts to beat Rafa at RG, I just feel someone with his record at the tournament is way overpriced and most defo a value bet today.
GOod luck all!
Also a small treble for interest:
Serena 2-1
Murray
Rafa
27.2/1
Nadal +6.5 games
Williams -5.5 games
Baczinsky
Murray pays 5/2
Sunny but not blazing hot? The temperature makes a difference
The hotter the better for Rafa. The warmer it is the more topspin and zip he’ll get off that forehand…
Really hard to predict the Nadal game. I really don’t know what to bet..
For tomorrow, i’m all over Wawrinka.
Definitely more his kind of weather tomorrow by the looks of it
This is obviously more psychological for djok. Plays like he’s been playing, then you can’t really see past him
Agreed with Wawrinka. Definitely won’t be as affected by tsonga’s power and will be able to fend off that massive serve a bit more consistently than nishikori.
Stan hasn’t been stringing good performances together this year, that’s the only worry for him. Tsonga will have crowd massively behind him and won’t be out powered like Fed was. I’d expect Stan to win the way he played yesterday, but a Frenchman in Paris is an unpredictable thing!
Serena to lose first set
4/1 with skybet
Ad what’s your thoughts on the two women’s games today do you think any will go 3sets thanks
Errani will get broken a few times in this match. If not, then serena needs a word with herself. Errani’s serve is basically a hindrance
Just depends how she plays. I agree that serena is ridiculously lazy at times and often just tanks the first set at the first sign of difficulty. So weird.
craig i think thats a great bet – Serena lost her first set in her last 3 matches with Errani winning her first set in every match this tournament. Errani also went into a 1-0 lead when they last played 2 weeks ago in the fed cup.
@ 4/1 and with serena not quite at her best i will be happy to risk a small amount on these odds!
Errani won the first set in their last match (also on Clay)
I would expect two straight sets wins in the women’s today, but you just never know. As mentioned already, Serenas capable of going walkies, and was awful for much of her last match, and that first set bet looks decent. 2-1 Serena is another option, if you think Errani could drop the first but win the second, but a slow start from Serena is her best chance
4 singles for me.
I’m on Van Uytvanck +1,5 sets @2.20 and Errani +1,5 sets @3.20
For the ATP : Ferrer to win @2.40 and Djokovic 3-0 @3 and 3-1 @3.6
Small stakes on everything, just trying to find some value!
Cheers lads, in the end av went with under18.5 games in Williams match and under 19.5 in timea game, good luck everyone
I’m sure Errani’s serve gets worse every time I see it
Wouldn’t back Errani + anything in this matchup, potentials always there to get blown away.
Just been going with serena to break on every service game. Odds aren’t great but it’s easy money
Jaseos,
Looking to follow your tips from today. What’s your staking and unit plan please mate so I can follow properly
Bit more competitive now. Shame
Bacsinszky lucky to win the first set 6-4 imo. Could have gone the other way!
Looks like both games are going to be straight sets wins. No upsets this time!
I’ll put some more on Djokovic to win (only @1.35) now.
I have a feeling Daveed may do well today. I’m having small bets on 3-1 @ 6/1 and 3-2 at 7/1. A bit odd to see Murray favourite.
Hi Ellis,
In a nutshell, when I see a good pick, I am staking single units on MLB underdogs, over evens. I use £20 a unit but obviously that doesn’t matter.
I try to post regularly, between 1 and 3 picks a day but can’t guarantee I will have the time to look or find anything on some days.
I figure that if I get 6 out of 13 correct picks (46%) I should end up in profit, albeit small. Therefore, I am measuring p/l in batches of 13. The 1st batch returned a massive 11 correct but this previous set, I won just 4.5 units.
I am in the process of looking for any decent bets for today but I would always advise you to only follow if you agree with my findings, as it can be subjective. My strength is overall baseball history, knowledge and instinct of a team/pitcher so check Dazzler’s too as he has a much larger range of betting markets knowledge and interesting stats than I do. Cherry picking from us both I recommend!
Nadal is looking terrible. His head is not in the game
Braves @ D’backs
Team to score first wins @ 1.41
Pirates @ Giants
Team to score first wins @ 1.37
Double @ 1.94 *lost*
White Sox @ Rangers
Rangers over 8.5 hits @ 1.83 *won*
Rolling bet (round 3)
Bet 2
Braves @ D’backs
Team to score first wins @ 1.41 *lost*
Gonna knock the rolling bet on the head and go in a different direction.
Weird match so far. Djokovic now making basic errors
Dazz
Let’s get them
Any think u like for today??
My bets for tonight’s MLB-
Mets @ Padres
Team to score first wins @ 1.37
Blue Jays @ Nationals
Team to score first wins @ 1.42
Double @ 1.95 bet365
Yankees @ Mariners
Yankees and over 5.5 runs @ 2.63 skybet
Mets @ Padres
Padres and over 4.5 @ 2.1 skybet
Dazzler – I see the Rangers bet just squeezed in for you, they should have paid you twice!!
I am really tempted to go for the Twins in both of the games tonight, each of them @2.40, any thoughts on this mate?
Jaseos it’s always nice to see a bet sail in like that. I always look out for the hits line when Samardzija is on the mound.
I can see Twins winning both and losing both, the second game should be good for runs but you know how I feel about these double headers.
With the Twins losing a close one last night against the best by far the Red Sox have in Buchholz, it’s hard for me to imagine them losing both against an anemic Red Sox line-up.
@2.40 for each seems very generous, the uncertainty I have is the double header situation and this rookie, Rodriguez… But the Twins love smashing a leftie around so it could be a “welcome to the majors kid” moment for him???
Interesting pick on the Yankees, 2 months ago I would have been all over this but are you not concerned about Tanaka’s fitness? The guy is so injury prone and six-weeks is a long time with just 6 innings pitched at AAA.
I am also leaning towards Tampa Bay, Braves and Texas but will have to put more thought into them
Anyone watching Rafa v Nole? How’s the spaniard playing? Is he worth a few bob for the title @ 9/1 ?
Defintly worth it Ad he’s in this.
Cheer Mark, I’ve got Tsonga standing as my long odds long shot, Rafa could offer a different kind of value. The longer this goes on the better his chance, surely
Such a bad tiebreak by Ferrer..
Ferrer: The double fault machine. Ridiculous
Indeed Felix.
Luckily I will have one winning bet, Djokovic 3-0. Good value bet it seems!
The end of the second set ripped the hear out of Rafa, up until then both sets could have gone either way. Djokovic was different class today though and absolutely clinical in the 3rd set.
It’s the doubles header thing, always puts me off and clouds my judgement, as there are too many variables to think about. Although like you say the prices are generous.
It is a risk but Mariners have only won 1 of there last 6.
Mariners haven’t scored more than 3 runs in their last 7 against Yankees so I don’t think they’ll win, think they’ll score 2 or 3 and hopefully Walker has another off day and gets smashed around.
The other 3 are all 50/50 for me but the prices are good.
I’ve finally got there, here is what I am on tonight. It took me so long to make my mind up that I don’t have time for a write-up but ask me any questions and I’ll be happy to help:
0.5 Unit on Twins GM 1 (w/Hughes) @2.40
0.5 Unit on Twins GM 2 (w/May) @2.40
1 Unit on Texas (w/Martinez) @2.15
1 Unit on Giants (w/Hudson) @2.15
1 Unit on Baltimore (w/Gonzalez) @2.15
1 Unit on a DOUBLE – Cinci/Phils & Brewers/Cards both UNDER 8.5 Total Runs @2.06
So 5 units in total. 3 wins out of 6 will be profit.
Well the Murray v Ferrer has gone over games so covers me, big shame Nadal couldn’t nick a set he looked like he would at one point but Djokovic is on another level to say the least. Ad, the Tsonga match tomorrow should be a classic very close to call but hopefully for your bet Tsonga wins. I think I’ll go over total games in that match.
MLB guys, I know you sort of throw different bets around and am very grateful. Could anyone suggest a double around evens? I can’t do the team that scores first wins with William Hill either.
Djokovic has an extra gear to everyone else at the moment. He definitely strugged a bit at times but it was more of a psychological thing.
Tomorrow night Huggy don’t get out hopes up! Nope down this week but only slightly.
Jack – Not such a good night for doubling a couple of “banker” favs tonight. The safest double I can see is San Diego RL+1.5 & Phillies RL+1.5.
Both should win the game (let alone lose by 1) but you are relying on 2 average teams with very good pitchers at home. That should be just under evens but not worth the risk in my view, as things can go wrong with the hitting side of things with of both these teams.
Sorry I can’t be of more help.
Fair enough mate, I’ll have a look at the bets you and Dazzler posted later and do something a little different! Thanks though.
Had a nightmare couple of nights on the MLB with Washington losing and the night before clicking on the Diamondbacks +1 rather than the Braves by accident!
Sorry Jack William Hill don’t have the markets I bet on.
Best I could advise is on the run line coupon-
MIN Twins +1.5 (game 2)
TB Rays +1.5
@ 2.38
But I won’t be on it mate.
That’s alright, cheers again. Might start doing more of my own research as I’ve started watching the odd game, but won’t be home until midnight so no time tonight!
No worries Jack. If you want to do some baseball betting I’d recommend a bet365 account as they offer the most markets so it’s easier to find ‘good’ bets.
Jaseos watching the Twins game and Rodriguez is looking pretty solid out there.
Dazzler. He looks the real deal, excellent stuff and decent control. Especially since the Twins love lefties and only have 1 hit through 5!
Hughes on the other hand has been dreadful, considering this Boston lineup is one of the leagues weakest… terrible performance from the Twins, let’s hope for better next game!
Correction Huggy. 4.3 points up now :D
Hughes just kept throwing it in there trying to strike them out but fair play to the sox, they’ve been really aggressive in their offence.
@Jordan
I’ve got a weird offer from my bookie and I’m wondering if I can make any profit out of it.
The offer is :
If I place a pre-match bet of 30£ on the Champions League Final between Juve/Barca I get a money-back in play bet of the same amount. Meaning that if my in play bet loses I get my money back.
Any thoughts?
OriaZ. This is done be a few of the regulars and there is a special thread that goes up for it which I imagine will be up shortly. I don’t do this as I don’t see the point really. A man I would recommend asking on the football thread is a guy called Alves.
OriaZ. This is done be a few of the regulars and there is a special thread that goes up for it which I imagine will be up shortly. I don’t do this as I don’t see the point really. A man I would recommend asking on the football thread is a guy called Alves.
Ok thanks, will keep an eye out for the thread.
HUGGY`S main bet
No games for a while so going double stakes.
GSW WARRIORS – 6 FT SPREAD £100
gsw -3.5 ht spread £30 on
tristan thompson over 10.5 rebounds £30 on
JR SMITH over 20.5 total points £30 on
match total over 202.5 points £50
GOOD LUCK GUYS , this should be some match-up
Huggy you rush these things too much haha, JR points are 14.5. Also you’ve basically stolen all of my pick :D Just kidding. Still deciding what I’m gonna go for yet. Good luck mate.
Basketball bet
This game is tomorow 16.30 start
Zalgiris vs lietuvos rytas
Zalgiris – 7.5 @ 17/20 **LOSE*
I have bet zalgiris in the last two games of this series and they have covered the spread on both occasions , they seem to be much more superior than lietuvos and although I only post stateside NBA bets and euro basketball is not my speciality I feel pretty confident with this pick
Terrible players, terrible game if the Knicks played either of these team they would win by 50 +, gonna leave the euro scene to Hunter that’s his thing
back to winning ways now in the NBA fu*k euro ball I would have comparisions to lebron if I played in those leagues terrible standard
Still going double stakes on my remaining bets but not gonna put those silly brackets after every bet I post i don’t see the point just gonna mention it
NBA bet
* Lebron James over 28.5 points @ 5/6
Good luck to ALL , hope a lot of people have got into basketball this season , great sport u jus needa give it a try , drawing to an end now but what a season ay gents
££££
So many ifs and buts for me on this game. Going to stick with somebody I’ve been on quite regularly during the playoffs. They will need this man if the Splash Brothers are hitting threes for fun. Not only does he shoot but he rebounds and assists, and I think this total is low as he could get the total in points alone.
Main Bet
J.R. Smith (Cavaliers) Over 20.5 Points/Rebounds & Assists @ 5/6 @ 365
Smaller Bets
Over 20.5 Total 3 point shots made @ 17/20 @ Ladbrokes
Oddschecker are showing specials on over/under field goal % @ Ladbrokes for the series but I can’t find them on site anywhere. Anyone comes across these please let me know as it could be a gold mine.
I’ve not come across it mate but there should be bets like that to that on most sites tomorow , there won’t be as many prop bets as the Superbowl has but should be a few bets simulair to what you’re looking for
MLB bet
Treble @ 7.5/1
Philadelphia Phillies
Toronto Blue Jays
Minnesota Twins
Hopefully my luck changes tonight as i have been out of it the last few nights
Blue Jays 1 run up as I post this
Not overly bothered mate if LeBrons was anything under 50 I’d be all over it.