TUESDAY was a night for favourites but on Wednesday the underdogs bit back. Bookies lost a packet on Tuesday – I've seen estimats of £50m and £9m from bet365 alone – and if you play with level stakes you'll have cut their losses slightly.
In the three big games on Wednesday there were surprise wins for Monaco, Bayer Leverkusen and to a lesser extent Nottingham Forest – anyone with a treble would be looking at a return up to 70-1.
Arsenal and Atletico not to lose cost me 5pts on the Super Single while the Top Treble was beaten by goals at the Emirates and lack of goals in Germany.
Tonight the focus is on the Europa League as sides try to move one step nearer landing the big prize of a Champions League spot. I'll put up a separate preview on Inter Milan v Celtic and of course there are three English teams in action.
Everton v Young Boys is finished as a contest after the Goodison men won 4-1 in Berne last week but as the Swiss try to save some pride the best bet could be both to score. Young Boys bounced back well to beat Basel 4-2 at the weekend while Everton were held 2-2 by Leicester.
Roberto Martinez is likely to make changes but if Romelu Lukaku starts I'll be on him to score after his hat-trick in Switzerland. He is 9-2 at Paddy Power to hit the opener.
Spurs head to Fiorentina just three days before the Capital One Cup Final against Chelsea so team news will be vital as Mauricio Pochettino decides whether to rest players or try to progress after a 1-1 draw at White Hart Lane. He left Harry Kane out of the first leg with Roberto Soldado coming and scoring the opener. If he starts Kane his intentions will be clear but whatever happens Spurs need to net and best bet could be both to score at 8-11 at Betfred.
Liverpool take a 1-0 lead to Besiktas and if the Turks' striker Demba Ba passes a fitness test thet could have a chance. A late Mario Balotelli penalty was all that split the sides at Anfield and not conceding an away goal is crucial but Liverpool are without seven players including Lazar Markovic who is banned and Phillipe Coutinho who is being rested. Jordan Henderson, Steven Gerrard, Lucas, Glen Johnson and Mamador Sakho are also out. Daniel Sturridge, however, is likely to start and is 5-1 at 888sport to score first.
There are doubts surrounding all of the English teams and elsewhere doubts about the likes of Roma (will they rest players?) at Feyenoord and the same concerns for PSV at Zenit ahead of a league meeting against Ajax.
It would of course be remiss to mention our old friend Bas Dost who has been in red-hot form for Wolfsburg. The Dutchman has netted 11 times for Wolfsburg since Christmas and only Lionel Messi has bagged more in Europe this year.
I tipped Bas Dost to score first at home to Sporting and he notched both in a 2-0 win. Wolfsburg don't need to push to hard but an away goal will seal it and Bas Dost is 5-1 at Skybet to score first and 7-5 at Ladbrokes to net at any time.
Dost, with 12 goals in seven games, has travelled to Portugal and should start with the Germans – now tournament favourites with some firms – making the Europa League a priority with Champions League football through their Bundesliga position almost looking assured.
I'be been studying team news and stats this morning and picking winners looks genuinely difficult. However, I'm confident about two teams – Dynamo Kiev and Inter.
Dynamo should beat Guingamp at home and were leading in France until they had two men sent off in quick succession – and even then the home men struggled to a 2-1 win. Kiev have a good European pedigree while Guingamp have none and have won just four away from home in the French League.
I've made my feelings clear about Inter-Celtic on the other post and while I'd love to be proved wrong for the sake of Scottish football I can't see past the Italians winning on the night – even though a low-score draw would see them progress.
For the treble I'm completing it with a darts tip. Phil Taylor has been in fine form in the Premier League and faces struggling Scot Peter Wright who he has a 10-2 head-to-head record against. Wright had won just three of 22 legs before battling back from 5-1 down to draw with Ray van Barneveld last week and while it was a great comeback it was partly down to the Dutchman's health struggles.
For the Super Single I've decided to go with Dost to score – he's made us fortunes in the past few weeks so if flops this time I can accept it. Wolfsburg should have won by many more than 2-0 in the first leg and should be looking to snatch an away goal to finish off the Portuguese – in his last away game the Dutchman netted a hat-trick at a Bayer Leverkusen side who last night shut out Atletico Madrid in the Champions League.
Goals tips will be added on a separate thread.
4pts Super Single
Dost to score (8.05pm)
3pts Top Treble
Dynamo Kiev (6pm)
Inter Milan (6pm)
Phil Taylor (10.10pm)
(11-4, William Hill)
Super Single February record:
22 bets (10 winners, 10 losers, 2 void)
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