IT was a night of hits and misses with my highest stake bet winning and the others losing.
The success was a 5pt Top Treble on Benfica, Lyon and Monaco while two 1pt Super Singles were losers. I could have covered Guingamp when they led 2-1 late on while Plymouth won – but needed extra time to see off Newport in their FA Cup replay and earn a terrific trip to Liverpool.
My btts treble, based purely on stats, saw only three teams score. One of those to flop was Nice who also beat the members bet but on the app the Daily Double won for seven winners out of 10.
There are plenty of games on the continent night as Europe's top leagues head for their holiday. In Serie A there are six matches plus four Spanish Cup clashes as well as games in Portugal and Belgium.
The Spanish games are second legs and for reference the first results were Gimnastic 0, Alaves 3; Murcia 0, Celta Vigo 1; Santander 1, Athletic Bilbao 2; Alorcon 1, Espanyol 1. Most of the matches this week have seen plenty of goals despite La Liga sides being weakened.
Having studied the matches in detail I'm going for a Super Single, another 5pts Top Treble and goals treble.
The treble starts with Roma, who have won 11 in a row at home in Serie A, against Chievo. At 4-11 Roma can be taken on accumulators and having won five out of six to nil against tonight's visitors that's an option too.
Add Braga at home to Moreirense. Braga beat Sporting away last time out and have six in a row at home. They shouldn't have too much trouble against shot-shy opponents.
I debated whether to back on-form Napoli at Fiorentina but have settled for them not to lose since their opponents are unbeaten at home with four wins and four draws. To balance that Napoli are unbeaten in seven visits to Florence and have the hottest forward in Serie A history.
Dries Mertens is the only player to have netted seven in two league matches and I'm happy to risk 1.3pts on him to score at 17-10. To net first the Belgian is 11-2 at Winner.
Remember to check out WeLoveBetting for their tips and video chat.
1.3pts Super Single
Mertens to score (7.45pm)
5pts Top Treble
Napoli not to lose
Roma
Braga (7pm)
(9-5, bet365)
1pt Over 2.5 Goals Treble
Cagliari v Sassuolo (7.45pm)
Torino v Genoa (7.45pm)
Athletic Bilbao v Santander (7pm)
(7-2, Marathonbet)
December Super Singles Total
- Profit: 2.3pts (19 bets, 8 winners)
December Advised Accas Total
- Profit: -13.6pts (38 bets, 7 winners)
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In December 2020 we sadly 
Last day tomorrow wee party in office before we break up so put these up the now as probs be 2 sheets to the wind by tea time……….
Belenenses o1.5mgs, braga o1.5tgs, cagliari ncs 2/1
Anderlecht o1.5tgs 6/4
Anderlecht o1.5tgs, cagliari ncs, napoli o1.5tgs 9/2
Shoe in
Sassuolo o1.5tgs, torino o2.5mgs, braga o1.5mgs 7/1
7/1 should read braga o1.5tgs
Braga
Napoli
Roma
3/1 bet 365
Nicely done with the top treble mr fixit, I added psg and the strongest to it for a 2/1 winner. Hadn’t crossed my mind til you tipped it ??
After yesterday’s 3 singles and treble won I can’t see much for today!! The prices on the Turkish cup for goals are too low and I can’t see much value in Italy
Pacos Ferreira to win 11/8
Mertens has been in fine form and is 8/5 to score anytime and 11/2 to score first so that’s one to consider
Also look out for goals in two games
Brisbane u21 vs Melbourne u21
Al jaish vs Al-Sadd (Qatar)
Gent
Cagliari
Fiorentina
Over 2.5mgs treble tad over 5/1
Frustrating evening with Lazio failing to score and Hoffenheim and weder falling a goal short as well. BTTS @ Koln was a simple winner but we move on to Serie A. Here’s my 3 previews for tonight’s action.
19:45 Torino vs Genoa –
Prediction 2.1
Key Facts
* 48 goals have been scored in Torino’s last 12 league fixtures. That’s an average of 4 goals per game
* 10 of those 12 games saw BTTS and over 2.5 goals
* Torino have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 11 of their last 12 HOME league fixtures
* Torino have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 13 home league fixtures
* Torino have scored 2 goals or more in 5 of their last 6 home league fixtures.
* Torino have scored 20 goals in 8 home league fixtures this season
* Each of the last 5 meetings between these two sides in the last 3 years have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals. A whopping 23 goals were scored in those 5 games
* Last season’s corresponding fixture finished in a 3.3 draw
* 8 of the last 9 meetings between these two sides have seen BTTS with 6 also going over 2.5 goals
* 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two sides in Turin have seen BTTS. 5 of those went over 2.5 goals
* Genoa have scored 3 or more in their last 3 matches with Torino
* Genoa are not consistent in the goals markets however their last fixture produced 7 goals as they crashed to a 4.3 home defeat to Palermo
* Genoa have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 6 league matches
* Genoa have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away league fixtures
Final Verdict
Genoa are not great goal scorers on the road but given the history and the form of Torino, goals have to be the best option here with so many thrillers taking place between these two sides in the past 3 years.
The last 5 matches between these two sides finished; 3.2, 3,3, 5.1, 2.1 and 2.1 with Genoa scoring 3 or more in the last 3 matches. Something similar would do nicely here and I’m taking a chance on the two selections
When doing my goal selections, I always look for 2 teams who are prominent in the goal markets. I usually tend to leave a fixture out if one of the sides involved is not a high performer in the BTTS or over 2.5 goal market. Genoa are one such side but despite that, I am taking the BTTS and over 2.5 goals option here simply because of Torino’s fantastic form in both markets and because of the recent history between the two sides which has seen those exclusively high scoring contests of late.
With Torino so rarely doing home clean-sheeets (only 1 in their last 13), goals have to be likely and while Genoa may not score a lot, their 4.3 home defeat last weekend bodes well for the possibility of goals again here while Torino’s own form up top with 2 goals or more scored in 5 of their last 6 at home (20 in 8 at home so far this season) leads me to the conclusion that BTTS is likely @4/6 while the BTTS and over 2.5 goals selection also tempts and pays at 1/1.
Genoa’s away form is a concern but they have enough quality about them to score here against a Torino side that like to attack and rarely keep clean sheets with just 3 in their last 22 league games.
Best Bets
BTTS @4/6
BTTS and over 2.5 goals @1/1
————————————————————————————————————————————–
19:45 Fiorentina vs Napoli
Prediction 1.2
Key Facts
* Napoli have scored 13 goals in their last 3 Serie A fixtures with 9 points collected
* Napoli have seen BTTS in 7 of their last 10 league fixtures and in 3 of their last 5 on the road in Serie A
* Napoli have kept only 3 clean sheets in their last 12 away league fixtures
* Napoli leaked 3 at home to Torino last weekend despite being 3.0 up at half time.
* Napoli have scored 17 goals in 9 away league fixtures this season
* Napoli are unbeaten in each of their last 8 visits to Florence.
* 4 of the last 5 meetings in Florence between these two sides saw BTTS
* Fiorentina have seen BTTS in each of their last 4 home league fixtures.
* Fiorentina have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in their last 3 home fixtures in all competitions and in 6 of their last 7 fixtures
* Fiorentina have leaked 14 goals in those 7 fixtures
* Fiorentina have lost 4 of their last 7 matches in all competitions
* Fiorentina did not keep a clean sheet in any of those 7 fixtures
* Fiorentina have scored in 28 of their last 31 home league fixtures although they have drawn blanks in 2 home fixtures so far this season
* Fiorentina have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 16 home league fixtures (31% clean sheet ratio)
Final Verdict
Goals seem pretty likely here as Napoli head to Fiorentina with the visitors finding their shooting boots in their last 3 outings and the hosts leaking 2 goals per game on average over the last 6 weeks as they struggle to find their best form.
Fiorentina are usually strong at home with only 1 loss in their last 15, but they don’t have a great record over Napoli in recent years and their recent form of just 2 wins in 6 at home suggests that Napoli have every chance to take advantage of the home sides current defensive problems.
BTTS is a bit short @4/7 but seems likely when you consider neither side are in the best of forms defenesively. Napoli struggle for away clean sheets while Fiorentina aren’t in great form either with plenty of goals conceded in their recent fixtures (14 in 7).
Ultimately, this could be a tough game for Napoli but I fancy them to edge to a 2.1 away success so BTTS, BTTS and over 2.5 goals and Napoli to score 2 or more all have a pretty strong chance, at least according to the latest stats, form and history.
Best Bets
BTTS @4/7
Napoli to score 2 or more @5/6
BTTS and over 2.5 goals @10/11
————————————————————————————————————————————–
19:45 Cagliari vs Sassuolo
Prediction – 1.1
Key Facts
*Cagliari have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 7 of their last 9 home league fixtures including 5 of the last 6
* 39 goals have been scored in Cagliari’s last 9 home league fixtures. That’s an average of more than 4 per game
* Cagliari have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 28 home league fixtures!
* Cagliari have scored in 17 of their last 20 home league fixtures. Only Napoli (twice) and Palermo managed a clean-sheet on the island of Sardinia.
* Sassuolo have seen BTTS in each of their last 8 away league fixtures
* Sassuolo have a tremendous record of scoring on the road having done so in 21 of their last 22 away league fixtures!
* 17 of those 22 games saw BTTS – that’s a 77% success rate in the BTTS market
* These sides have met 4 times previously in Serie A. All 4 matches saw BTTS with both fixtures at Cagliari also going over 2.5 goals (2.1 and 2.2)
* Both sides are struggling for form. Cagliari have just 2 wins in their last 9 Serie A fixtures while Sassuolo have just 1 win from their last 9
Final Verdict
This is the kind of fixture I like for BTTS with both sides showing great numbers in the markets. Sassuolo are so reliable when it comes to scoring in away games with 21 of their last 22 on the road producing at least 1 goal while the hosts are pretty solid when it comes to scoring in front of their own fans.
End result? BTTS @4/6 looks nailed on, even if it won’t be a high-scoring encounter which may finish with a share of the spoils. 0.0? Not a chance. Cagliari have not drawn 0.0 in any of their last 60 home league fixtures going back 4 years and I don’t expect that to change here.
Best Bets – BTTS @4/6
Best Bets for Thursday
Torino v Genoa – BTTS @4/6
and Cagliari v Sassuolo – BTTS @4/6 (NAP Double)
Torino v Genoa – BTTS and over 2.5 goals @1/1
Fiorentina v Napoli – BTTS @4/7
Fiorentina v Napoi – Napoli to score 2 or more @5/6
Fiorentina v Napoi – BTTS and over 2.5 goals @10/11
dzeko first scorer between minutes of 1-20 at 8.00
5 pays 40
above clearly a longshot but its occurred quite few times this season with dzeko back in form.
Also on torino v genoa over 2.5mgls 1.70
aspas anytime (celta) 2.05
Two last bets b4 Xmas . All seria matches BTTS 25/1 bet365 (full house). All seria matches over 2.5 goals 32/1 (full house ) can see it happenin . Good luck lads happy Xmas ! ?
BTTS and no draw pays just under 182/1 @ skybet micky, got to be worth a quid ?
tbh pal looking at the serie a roster today i actually agree. Could very well happen. ive already got an acca with serie a games over 2 goal lines though.
Dries Mertens ATGS 8/5
A little something for small stakes tonight as attention is turned towards the Boxing Day card. There’s a lot to like but first we’ll try and bolster the bankroll with the following treble:
Braga (Win)
Torino vs Genoa O1.5 Match Goals
Cagliari vs Sassuolo O1.5 Match Goals
Treble @ 13/10 (Various)
On this Leroy 2/3 cover available too. Here’s hoping for 1 more goal ?
Damn! Hope you got the cover on @philwindy – I was unfortunately out and forgot all about the bet. Looks like Cagliari hogged all the goals! Though it did have goals written all over it.
Cocker spaniel well spotted on it mate aswel . Btts n over in all matches 105/1 coral . We fiver on her to ?
on it mate cheers .
Cagliari v Sassuolo
8 of Sassuolo’s 9 away matches have been BTTS and 6 of those have also gone overs.
6 of Cagliari’s 8 home matches have been BTTS and all of these have gone overs.
Very strong shout for BTTS and overs and this will be my main bet and NAP for the day.
11/10 good luck folks.
Winner :)
Roma win 4/11
Napoli o2.5 mgs 8/13
Double 1.2/1 Nap
Good luck with your bets
Quick heads-up for this afternoon…
CLUB DE MONTEVIDEO VS. LIVERPOOL MONTEVIDEO (13.00)
Uruguayan Youth football and ‘The Scousers’ are back in action after the game picked out on Monday finished with 5 goals.
Likely to be less here but Over 2.5 pays 4/6 and is worth a go at low stakes ?
Best of luck with all bets
1-0 ?
Italy – Lega Pro Group C – 1.30pm
Siracusa v Messina
2-3 Match Goals
2.15 (Bet Victor)
***********************
Italy – Lega Pro Group C – 3.30pm
Fidelis Andria v Foggia
2-3 Match Goals
2.15 (Bet Victor)
***********************
Double 4.62 (Bet Victor)
Italy – Lega Pro Group C
19.45
Matera v Taranto
Matera to win + O 1.5
2.00 bet365
Nacional Madeira v Boavista
Halt time / Full time – X/X
Any reasoning to accompany your choice sir?
host has three missing players Correa, Hamzaoui and Cadiz, also they are weaker than Boavista till now, this will be tough fight for both sides and possible chance for low score encounter so x/x option have high chance there.
294/1 BTTS no draw at Willie hill Cspaniel
That is a massive difference from sky 182/1 cheers micky.
As a few people have already pointed out, got a feeling serie A could be a bit of a goldmine for goals tonight, and all games look like they could have plenty in them.
Going to go for an anytime goal scorer treble with three strikers in good form
Belotti
Mertens
Dzeko
Pays just over 5/1.
Merry Christmas to one and all!
Looking forward to the Boxing Day fixtures already!
Accidentally reported your comment, but Betfair is paying 11/1 for the same 3 players to score on their specials!
No way! I’m gutted.
It’s come in as well. Ah hope some others got on at the better odds. Still happy with some money before Xmas.
Cheers anyway
No probz goodluck bro
Al Jaish vs. Al Sadd (Qatar League)
This looks ripe for over 3.5 mgs. All the last 6 meetings have seen this land, and both teams are bang in scoring form especiall Al Sadd who I fancy to get at least 2.
Good Luck!
PS: BTTS looks a good shout too.
Good spot ….dont normally touch these games but yeah just checked the stats…looks good and btts now evens. GL :)
well dne Tigerman1 btts landed
Am glad it did for you if you followed
It didn’t land? The o3.5mgs was 2 short(!)
Over 2.5 mgs the games at Torino Fiorentina and Roma, 4/1 bet 365 also
Napoli win btts
Torino win btts
Roma over 1.5
Cagliari btts
Sampdoria btts
50/1 bet 365
Small afternoon treble for the Portuguese U19 games just KO’d:
Boavista, Sporting and Benfica all to be winning at HT.
Just over 3/1.
GL all
Lost – Sporting not obliging even though they dominated the half.
Italy – Lega Pro Group C – 1.30pm
Siracusa v Messina
2-3 Match Goals
2.15 (Bet Victor)
***WON***
***********************
Italy – Lega Pro Group C – 3.30pm
Fidelis Andria v Foggia
2-3 Match Goals
2.15 (Bet Victor)
***WON***
***********************
Double 4.62 (Bet Victor)
***WON***
December Profit/Loss: +13.34 pts
Nice one again!!
This is ur market and u always seem to end up in profit on it
Nate, cheers mate its served me well so far 27pts from the start of August hope it can continue. I believe being selective on the games and the staking plan has been the key
Belting stuff Wato you ould dog ???
Hull cheers mate tough keeping up with you though ?
Bolivia – Apertura – Midnight
Nacional Potosi v Oriente Petrolero
Over 1.5 Match Goals
Qatar – Stars League – 3.15pm
Jaish v Al-Sadd SC
Over 2.5 Match Goals
1.82 (Bet365)
***LOST*** (One goal short in Qatar)
€50– €500 challenge
bet 1: €50 returns €75
juve stabia over 4.5 team goals
Fonte ags 13/5
Lost
Not that I really give a crap about Notts Florist, but just a heads up on their star striker who’s been injured this past month or so. Britt Notscoringanylogga, he’s now fit and ready for the festive fixture list so Florist will be booking their ticker-tape parade for when they avoid the trapdoor come May. He’s also opted out of playing for Congo in the Africa cup of nations that would take him out of club football for up to a month.
So Florist might start to pick back up with their goals tally.
Vaiation on a theme here:
All 6 Italian games OVER 1.5 MGS
Pays a rather appealing 3.15/1
Good luck ?
In plAy
Roma to score in both halves 2/1
**WON**
Jeez, just had some rotten news text through from Craneguy – apparently all didn’t go great at his office party.
He’s in A&E now having a semi-melted motorway traffic cone surgically removed from his anus after his ‘Paisley Enema’ went horribly wrong.
Evidently they’d poured about 4 pints of Buckfast through the cone when one of his workmates ficked his tab end into the mix.
Get well soon big man x
Sounds nasty – typical Scottish Xmas night-out though.
Any thoughts on the Belenseses game over in Portugal folks? I am utterly useless at Portugeuse football.
See the last H2H was 2-5 some months ago and was toying with BTTS & OVER 3.5 at 13/4…?
Cheers
On current form it’s an unders game but I’m no expert either.
Five of Belenenses last six have gone under 1.5 goals and four of Sporting’s last six have been 0-1 or 1-0.
Cheers Mr F – one to leave out then!
Let us know closer to the time and will give you a rundown of courses in the area…some decent ones on the outskirts (East Riding of Yorks) and fair prices – 20 minute drive to the docks as well ?
20 minutes from the docks sound good. I see it’s still 0-0 at Belenenses.
Check Brough out – smart enough course and literally have to drive past it on way in to Hull ?
Any way of covering the top treble mr f??
Not really because we’d need to cover two possibilities. Just hoping it comes in.
€50– €500 challenge
bet 1: €50 returns €100
belenenses game over 2.5 mgs
Gent
Cagliari
Fiorentina
Over 2.5mgs treble tad over 5/1 **WON**
Well overdue after last few days about time games had plenty goals
Well done all winners some nice ones tonight
Cheers mr f for mertens tip
Super tipping DC was on myself pity u didnt tip an over 4.5 goal treble lol that would have paid for Christmas no bother
Nice work DC and Mr F a cracker with Mertens ?…cheers!!
Cheers hull
Loverly SS Mr F!!! fingers crossed for the TT :)
belenses no clean sheet
over 17 match corners same game
pays 1.90
quite confident on this looking at ht stats already milked the fh corners
won
In play
Bas dost ags 12/5
Not much value in sporting to score so going for most likely scorer
**WON**
Roma win 4/11
Napoli o2.5 mgs 8/13
Double 1.2/1 Nap
Winner !!!
Well done to all who managed a win today
GL
Nice one paddy
Thanks Hullshaker. Much appreciated
Italy Lega Pro Group C
Matera to win + O 1.5
WON
Sporting 1st goal before 80 mins
4/5
£33.34 pays £60.01
club america v tigres
worth looking at club america played 3 games in a week against kashima, real madrid and at nacional. in world club cup.
tigres 0.0 asian hamdicap at 1.83 got to be worth a shot
Stinking night . ?
You can say that again
Cant belive there isn’t a goal in Portugal yet ?
Mr F called it about spot on I’d say…alright for corners mind.
Just looked at the form – at least my old pal Bas Dost got in on the act at the end for anyone on Sporting.
sporting are bossing the stats but bringing me to tears. bank builder is about on its knee’s, at least I banked £20 5 mins before I dropped onto the over 0.5 tmg’s. cashout too low to bother now.
I was on for over 1.5 utter toilet crap!!
Well there’s one @nathanufton
But not another always the luck…F..k football ?
Yep, I was just saying to my buddy, the xmas eve bank builder has come off the rails at £107 with just £20 banked. Cashout was only £15. The £20 was going to our ” let’s get pissed on xmas eve ” fund. I was on the phone to my buddy telling him it looked like we’d be heading out at 11.30pm and having 3 beers each maximum. Lol. Now with a very sparse card tomorrow, I at least have tomorrow afternoon to bank 1, build 1. Might be able to add another £20 to the pot meaning we can go out for beers an extra hour earlier.
Start Pot – £84, ending pot £122 ( + £20 in the beer kitty )
Hampy, just looking at the Mexican game myself – used to follow them much more closely but pretty out of touch this season…Jordan is the main man in Mexico so interesting to see if he has any thoughts.
CLUB AMERICA VS. TIGRES (03.00 KO):
Leg one of the Liga MX Final (Apertura) here and Tigres last played on the 4th December with Club America playing games on; 5th, 11th, 15th and 18th (the latter 3 in the Club World Cup) so this could well have an impact.
BUT the concensus seems to be it will detrimental to Tigres not America. Tigres were hitting form in the run-in and this lay-off may be hard to get back from as opposed to the hosts who are fresh in terms of match fitness.
Tigres arguably have the better players though and if they can keep this 1st leg tight, it’ll give them the advantage as they enter Leg 2.
Don’t think they’ll be many goals here but if they do come it could well be Andre Pierre Gignac who has been a revelation during his time in Mexico.
3 selections to consider:
DRAW…21/10
???
CORRECT SCORE 0-0…7/1
?
A-P GIGNAC ATGS…8/5
??
Best of luck ?
I agree about Club America being a bit spent, but with the onus of having to travel to the far east to play in a tournament where they were only ever going to be cannon fodder, I think Club America might have a little bit more in the tank than people think. I do agree too that this could be a tight game which is why I shall be ignoring it for my bank builder.
Onwards to tomorrow.
Evening Nathan, i’ve maybe not worded my post well but what I was trying to say was that the additional games may actually go IN their favour.
Good luck with your boozy bank builder pal – might not be your cup of tea but Point Fortin are back in action tomorrow and may well be value to be had there…will put a post together in a bit.
Scratch that…looks like Point Fortin’s game is postponed.