WE may be in the midst of a cold snap, but the heat is sure to be ratcheted up for boxing fans this weekend, with a tasty double bill on Sky Sports.

Kell Brook v Sergey Rabchenko

First up is Kell Brook, making his comeback after two devastating defeats to Golovkin and Errol Spence Jnr. There was no shame in losing to two elite fighters, but suffering a fractured eye socket in both fights may be a cause for concern for the Sheffield fighter coming in to this one. At 31, Brook may not have many more fights left in him and the prospect of a big fight against Amir Khan next year is widely thought to be his end game now, so defeat to Rabchenko is unthinkable.

The Belarussian has a decent record, can be heavy handed and varies his attacks, so he should provide a decent test for Brook. He is trained by Ricky Hatton and has troubled Brook in sparring in the past, so is a little overpriced at 12/1. There is certainly little value in Brook at 1/16.

Brook has stepped up in weight to super-welter and there is so much on the line for him here. This, along with question marks over his facial injuries and a dangerous opponent, means I don't expect Brook to take risks and go all out for an early stoppage.

Brook has unquestionably demonstrated the better skills and I expect him to begin cautiously before his skills wear Rabchenko down. Rabchenko has been inactive since a 9th round stoppage to Tony Harrison in July 2016, so I expect him to gas later in the fight as the accumulation of Brook’s shots brings the stoppage.

Recommendations

  • Main stake: Brook to win by KO / TKO / DQ / Retirement – 5/7 (Marathon Bet)
  • Medium stake: Brook to win in rounds 7-12 – 7/4 (Sky Bet)
  • Small stake: Brook to win in rounds 7-9 – 7/2 (888 sport)
  • Small stake: Brook to win in round 8 – 12/1 (Boylesports)

Deontay Wilder v Luis Ortiz

In the small hours of Sunday morning, two unbeaten records are on the line as arguably the king of the heavyweight division, Deontay Wilder, puts his WBC belt on the line against the slick, powerful Cuban, Luis Ortiz. This will surely be Wilder's sternest test to date and there is serious potential for the much talked about future unification fight with Anthony Joshua to be derailed in the Barclays Centre in Brooklyn.

Styles make fights and Wilder's aggressive, rangy and unorthodox attack could match up well to the smooth, counter punching Ortiz. As with Brook, Wilder may have his eyes on potential big future fights and he will be wary of going all out for the KO, particularly when he has been rocked by less accomplished fighters than Ortiz in the past – see Eric Molina in 2015.

I expect Wilder to be cautious but with possibly the biggest right hand in boxing he undoubtedly has the power to get Ortiz out of there within the distance. I expect Ortiz to ail in the later rounds, as age, possible after effects of past doping indiscretions, along with Wilder's brute strength and will to make a similar statement for Joshua to think on – as he did when dispatching Bermaine Stiverne mercilessly back in November – will all combine to see Wilder over the line. Ortiz will be an altogether stiffer test than Stiverne, but I fancy Wilder to get the job done and stop the dangerous Cuban in the later rounds.

Recommedations

  • Main stake: Wilder win – 4/11 or win by KO / TKO / DQ / Retirement – 8/11 (both Betfair)
  • Medium stake: Wilder win in rounds 7-12 – 13/5 (Betfair)
  • Medium stake: Over 7.5 rounds – 11/12 (Marathon Bet)
  • Small stakes: Wilder in rounds 9-12 – 5/1 (Betfair)
  • Small stakes: Wilder in round 9-10 – 17/2 (Betfair)
  • Small stakes: Wilder in round 10 – 17/1 (Betfair)
13 Comments
  1. ste_smith 7 months ago

    Hi mate, great to see a boxing thread on the forum. Although as much as I love it, I find it a really hard sport to find value in.

    As you point out there’s little value in backing the likes of Brook at 1/16.

    I’ve found myself more drawn to the total rounds and fight to go the distance markets. Certainly wouldn’t argue with Wilder-Ortiz going over 7.5, given how light Wilder’s come in, suggesting he’s looking to move, rather than trade from the off.

    However, one that really stands out for me tonight is Allen v Thomas to go the distance @5/6 (Bet365). The first fight between the two was pretty attritional, and I can’t see either finding the power to stop the other.

    I also think Glenn Foot may well be over-priced against Jason Easton at 2/1. Perhaps a small interest on that.

    • Author
      dannycox 7 months ago

      Hello mate, hope you’re enjoying a cracking night of boxing. Totally agree – the bookies could definitely be fairer when it comes to the boxing odds.

      That was an interesting shout on the Allen fight. Got to feel for the guy, and for you if you had a bit of dosh on it! Hopefully the bookies void it.

      Great shout on Foot, lovely stuff!

      • ste_smith 7 months ago

        Yeah, went quite big on the Allen fight, so hoping they void it. Rules say if it’s a No Contest they void, but that was officially a Technical Draw so not sure. They should really IMO.

        Great win for Foot. Haven’t seen it but sounds like Easton tried to go toe-to-toe with him which is bad choice. He’s a hard man.

        • Author
          dannycox 7 months ago

          Aye it sounded like a bit of a tear up.

          Bit of inconsistency from the bookies on the Allen fight. Ladbrokes and Coral settling it as a win for the draw market, Betfair and Bet Victor have voided.

          • ste_smith 7 months ago

            SkyBet have voided too. Really think settling on a draw is a load of of bollox. Of course draws are tidy little earners for the bookies in the boxing betting…

            Got a response from 365’s Twitter saying all bets on this fight are “under review”. We shall see.

  2. the notorious 7 months ago

    Wilder is only an average boxer. Anyone who seen his last fight against the baldy Pole, seen just how average Wilder is. 11/4 on Ortiz is value

    • Author
      dannycox 7 months ago

      Wilder has definitely laboured against average boxers so you’re right that there may be value in Ortiz. I think this fight just might have come a year or two late for him. I’d like to see Wilder win to set up the Joshua fight (and get my bets up!)

  3. ste_smith 7 months ago

    Great shout on Wilder. Full house!

    365 have settled my Allen-Thomas bet as a loss which is very disappointing. I’ve emailed to complain but not expecting anything to be done.

    @mr-fixit are you able to use your contacts to question those firms that have settled the Allen-Thomas fight as anything other than a void? My bet’s done this time, and I can accept that, but they really need to look at it in future. It’s patently ridiculous that this type of circumstance results in anything other than a void. If it happens in a big (Joshua) fight and they adopt the same stance, the outcry will be enormous.

    • Mr Fixit 7 months ago

      I can question it with bet365 – can you email full details of the bet to mrfixit@ailyrecord.co.uk and I’ll look into it.

    • Author
      dannycox 7 months ago

      Cheers Ste – hope you got on some of them. Very entertaining fight in parts.

      Totally agree with you on settling the Allen-Thomas fight as a draw. Very unfair imo. I’d certainly be more inclined to use the bookies who voided it over those who didn’t in future.

      Best of luck with the complaint.

      • Mr Fixit 7 months ago

        I don’t understand why all bookies don’t void all bets considering it happened in the first round.
        Hopefully they’ll all see sense.

  4. ste_smith 7 months ago

    They’ve responded to my email and said although they are still settling as a loss they will give me my stake back as bet credits, so I can’t complain. (Not sure if that has anything to do with you @mr-fixit, but thank you if it does!).

    However, they’ve said in future they’ll continue with the same policy if a similar situation occurs. To me, that’s just plain wrong so it’s going to make me think twice about using them when it comes to boxing, which is a shame. As i’ve said, they want to hope this doesn’t happen in, say Joshua-Wilder, otherwise the outcry will be massive.

    • Mr Fixit 7 months ago

      I’ve spoken to a few bookies and the main problem seems to be you can bet on a tko.
      However, some need the fight to go past a certain number of rounds and the result is decided by scorecard.
      As this was in the first round there is no scorecard to go on so surely bets should be void.
      I’ve told the bookies I’ve spoken to this should be the case.
      Refunding as free bets is fine unless you’re never going to bet again.

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