Voice of Value Racing Tips: Set Sail for Nautical Heaven

Newbury_Racing

I’M pleased to say I am stepping in for Alan Thomson over the next fortnight with some daily tips as Thommo takes a well-earned break and recharges the batteries ahead of Cheltenham. 

He will though post a Cheltenham preview next week so watch out for that.

Wednesday’s card has been decimated by the cold snap but as I write the all-weather fixture at Wolverhampton is living up to its name and seems to have survived.

If you like a wee double with short-priced favourites have a look at King Kevin (3.20) and Compatriot (3.50) both of which look to have strong favourites chances.

In the 2.15 I think Ian Williams will hold the key because he has both Babette (-1) and Ok By Me (4-1). My advice would be to watch the market and follow whichever of those two is popular.

My tip though comes in the 4.25 where NAUTICAL HAVEN looks by far the best of these when you consider Afandem looked to have completely chucked the game at the end of the flat season, finishing 10th of 10 and 16th of 16 on his last two starts.

Afandem has switched yards to Mark Johnston and while the master of Middleham might be able to rejuvenate him the early prices are all wrong putting him almost as joint favourite here.

Nautical Haven is rock solid and this is a drop in class for him against some out-of-form horses. A repeat of his last couple of runs should be enough for the win.  Upavon is probably the main danger but I’m happy to get on board Nautical Haven in these calmer waters.

Good luck and let’s hope we can have a nice profitable fortnight together in the run up to Cheltenham.

Recommended Bet

Johnb’s Wednesday Tips

  • Wolverhampton 4.25 – Afandem
  • (6-1, bet365)
  • Newcastle 5.15 – Keir Hardie
  • (15-8, bet365NAP/NB
  • Australia Rosehill Gardens 3am – Terminology (3-1, Paddy Power)
  • Bendigo 5.10am – Chess Star (3-1, Sky Bet)
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    48 Comments
    1. Profile photo of the notorious
      the notorious 4 months ago

      John, how does Bristol De Mai go from winning a race by a record 57 lengths, to not either of his prep races, hence been pulled from the Gold cup. I don’t think I seen anything like this before, nor lost such amount of money.

      • Profile photo of Johnb
        Johnb 4 months ago

        No idea but I know some people are starting to look at Colin Tizzard as other horses are not quite up to the level they should be

        • Profile photo of Johnb
          Johnb 4 months ago

          the notorious it must have been a long day yesterday because for some reason I thought you had said Thistlecrack
          We have advised on Bristol De Mai and we have said that if connections want a crack at the Gold Cup next year then they will have to go straight there or with just one prep run, he is not course or form dependant he is just a horse that loses interest in racing the more he runs

      • Profile photo of voiceofvalue Author
        voiceofvalue 4 months ago

        My view re Bristol De Mai is that (a) he is far better at Haydock than elsewhere and (b) he is far better in heavy ground. When he meets horses at Haydock who don’t like the heavy ground he looks a lot better than he is. I wouldn’t back him anywhere other than Haydock and I wouldn’t have a large bet on him anywhere to be honest.

      • Profile photo of Johnb
        Johnb 4 months ago

        I have put a reply in about Bristol De Mai but it’s not showing, just ignore my post about Thistlecrack

    2. Profile photo of luckboxmason
      luckboxmason 4 months ago

      Think this is now good value…

      9/2 might bite to win the gold cup

      • Profile photo of voiceofvalue Author
        voiceofvalue 4 months ago

        I would agree re Might Bite at 9/2. That’s a solid bet and he is the most likely winner.

        Definitly Red the value each way shout as I have mentioned in my Gold Cup preview.

    3. Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 4 months ago

      As we work in America and Australia now as well as Britain we are on the go 24hrs a day, as a result of this these two selections are coming in the early hours so I hope some of you see them

      Australia

      Rosehill Gardens
      3:00am – Terminology 3/1 paddy power

      Bendigo
      5:10am – Chess Star 3/1 skybet

      • Profile photo of Johnb
        Johnb 4 months ago

        Terminology was caught late on beat half a length and Chess Star was closing but just failed to get there beat a neck

    4. Profile photo of frankel
      frankel 4 months ago

      2.15 wolves Life of [email protected]/1,2.15 Wolves [email protected]/1,5.15 Newcastle Bob [email protected]/1 6.45 Newcastle Urban [email protected]/2 e/w lucky 15.

    5. Profile photo of theplug
      theplug 4 months ago

      voiceofvalue what do you think of yorkhill,s chance in the champion hurdle 12/1

    6. Profile photo of ew thief
      ew thief 4 months ago

      Morning all well done winners yesterday
      Smart mover 2.15w 16/1
      Makhfar 2.45w 66/1
      Cool music 3.50w 16/1
      Espresso freddo 4.25w 12/1
      Windforpower 6.15n 10/1
      Inshaa 6.45n 10/1
      Novabridge 7.45n 9/1
      Ew singles &ew super Heinz gl all

    7. Profile photo of theplug
      theplug 4 months ago

      urban spirit 6-45 new 5/1 nb
      jeremys jet 2-15 wol 9/4 nap
      critical thinking 2-45 wol 5/1

    8. Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 4 months ago

      Anyone looking to back Afandem today and are worried about form, don’t be
      Afandem is another horse we have been advising on and the main point we made was that the horse had to leave the Palmer yard, I am sure everyone knows my opinion on the man, it’s not that high, I have known him since his days in the Borders and he is quite simply the worst trainer at this time, we have advised other connections to move their horses
      Afandem is quite simply far far better than today’s class, he is a Listed winner, a Group 3 winner, rated 109 in the Group 2 Flying Childers, only 3 lengths behind Mrs Danvers in a Group 3 at Newmarket and was only a length behind Bataash in that race
      Now he has moved yards it is very likely he could get back up to 105+ rating, only negative would be the long lay off not having run since September

    9. Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 4 months ago

      Yet again some of my posts not showing “what’s going on?”

    10. Profile photo of azzthewigan
      azzthewigan 4 months ago

      critical thinking 2.45 Golconda prince 3.20 sunshine and bubbles 3.50 upavon 4.25 l15 singles also done rev. fc critical thinking shamlan 2.45 well done all winners yesterday

    11. Profile photo of database
      database 4 months ago

      Pleased the site found a replacement whilst money thomsom takes a break.

      Lovely drift on your nap PLUG. be nice if critical thinking could do the business and then i will be hoping it isnt afandem’s day, although Nautical has gone from 7/4 to 5/2 which looks bad, probably see kirby win it :(.

    12. Profile photo of theplug
      theplug 4 months ago

      thanks azz + database

    13. Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 4 months ago

      Spare a thought for the thousands of people sleeping rough, many will die tonight

    14. Profile photo of azzthewigan
      azzthewigan 4 months ago

      our council have got a number to phone to get them of the streets in cold temperature’s john b every council should do this for them don’t now why they don’t

      • Profile photo of azzthewigan
        azzthewigan 4 months ago

        some are scammers though database not all of them though I once bought one a few pies and said here mate something to eat and he said o thanks and then he said to me have you also got some change as well mate I thought you cheeky git

      • Profile photo of Mr Fixit
        Mr Fixit 4 months ago

        I’m not in disagreement but this is a racing thread – let’s keep politics out of it.
        Johnb’s twitter feed is the place for comments and thoughts about the homeless.

    15. Profile photo of database
      database 4 months ago

      Gabriele Malune rides a 40/1 winner in Blue Rocks, for the same owners as Red Stripes, whom she won on at double figures over the winter, although it went off at 7s IIRC, something to keep note of perhaps.

    16. Profile photo of theplug
      theplug 4 months ago

      database. tom pepper tipped him could have backed him at 100/1

      • Profile photo of database
        database 4 months ago

        Shame I missed it really, backed red stripes when it won big, not to worry, i will have to bookmark tom pepper, anyone else of interest you deem worthy of “reading”?

      • Profile photo of spurs55
        spurs55 4 months ago

        yeah i saw that
        i was shocked he tipped it and at
        that price well worth a couple of bob got 80-1

    17. Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 4 months ago

      Yet another superb month, over 33% win rate and in profit yet again, it really is a good time to be a punter,
      Really pleased with the run of Afandem who has run far better after a change of yards and was only done by a lack of fitness, really looking forward to working with this horse and getting him the success he deserves

    18. Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 4 months ago

      Thursday

      Meydan
      2:30 – Bernamaj 9/4 william hill

      Meydan
      4:50 – Rare Rhythm 9/4 paddy power

      Kempton
      7:00 – White Desert 5/4 betvictor NAP/NB (double stake)

      Kempton
      7:30 – Bobby Biscuit 25/1 paddy power eachway 1/5 odds 1-2-3

    19. Profile photo of u2me413
      u2me413 4 months ago

      Well John any hidden gems like lebaik this time around at cheltenham. It was a great surprise when I seen the horse leading and destroying the field. Remember you were given a hard time for speaking so highly about a horse that would refuse to run. I took your word and had a few pound at big prices on Betfair. Twas a good day

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