TENNIS: WIMBLEDON BETTING PREVIEW

tennisballgeneric

TWO wonderful weeks of tennis action start on Monday and hopefully by the end of it Andy Murray is celebrating his second Wimbledon title.

The Scot is 11-4 second favourite at William Hill behind world No.1 Novak Djokovic but likes the grass more than the Serb and reckons he’s in the best form of his life.

Murray did well to reach the French Open semis where he pushed Djokovic to five sets then dominated as he won Queen’s for a fourth time.

The top two are due to meet in the Final if they go that far and while Murray is perceived to have the tougher draw with potential meetings against Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer it’s Djokovic – no bigger than 7-5 at sportingbet to retain his crown – whose early matches are much more difficult including a first-round clash with the tricky, big-serving Philipp Kohlschreiber.

An opener couldn’t be any tougher and I’ve even seen some tennis experts predict a win for the German at 16-1 with BetVictor. For me that’s a leap too far against the defending champion but he could win a set and over 3.5 sets at 2-1 with bet365 is my pick.

In the women’s singles there’s only one player I want to back and that’s Serena Williams as she tries to win the third leg in a Grand Slam bid.

On her game the USA star is impossible to beat at Wimbledon and the fact she won the French Open despite being sick says it all.

Williams is a best 7-4 at Ladbrokes and William Hill with defending champion Petra Kvitova second favourites at 4-1 with 888sport.

She is the only player to beat Williams this season and if she can conquer her mental deficiencies she can make the final again.

If you’re backing anyone else do it eachway. Best of the rest look to be Lucie Safarova at 33-1 with sportingbet or Eastbourne winner Angelique Kerber at 25-1 with Ladbrokes and bet365.

I’ll have a look at Monday’s matches in the morning and see if I can come back with anything I like.

Recommended Bets

Murray to win Wimbledon
(11-4, William Hill)

Djokovic v Kohlschreiber over 3.5 sets
(2-1, bet365)

William to win Wimbledon
(7-4, Ladbrokes, William Hill)

Kerber ew to win Wimbledon
(25-1, Ladbrokes, bet365)

36 Comments
  1. De Niro 1 year ago

    Re posting these from other general Sunday sports thread – as this is the Wimbledon thread :-)

    Wimbledon Tournament & Quarter Picks

    And Murray to win Winbledon 11/4 w/hill (super strong)
    4 points
    Grigor Dimitrov to win his Quarter 8/1 w/hill(strong)
    6 points
    A Radwanska to win her Quarter 5/1 paddy/p(super Strong)
    6 points
    Lucie Safarova to win her Quarter 6/1 32red (Strong)
    4 points
    Angelina Kerber to win her Quarter 3/1 stan/j (Medium)
    3 points

  2. De Niro 1 year ago

    Re posting – as above seeing as this is the Tennis thread;

    Wimbledon
    Mondays mens tips

    Klizan to beat Verdasco 11/4
    Paire to beat Youzhny 2/1

    Wimbledone
    Mondays womens tips

    M Puig 2-0 v Niculescu 4/1 nap
    M Puig to beat Niculescu 2/1 nb

  3. WasClueless 1 year ago

    De Niro – Think the Paire match is on Tuesday …

  4. Ad 1 year ago

    Wimbledon 2015.

    Ladies’ singles

    Quarter final predictions:
    Serena v Bencic
    Sharapova v Stephens
    Kerber v Lisicki
    Keys v Kvitova

    Semis:

    Serena v Sharapova
    Kerber v Kvitova

    Serena v Kvitova

    Outrights

    I had originally gone with Safarova as my favourite pick for Wimbledon, but the more and more I look at the draw the worse and worse hers looks. She starts against very handy grasscourter in Alison Riske. The next round against Hsieh should be much easier, but then Stepens, Pliskova and Maria wait for her before she even gets to Serena. That’s incredibly tough, and while I think she has a decent enough chance in all of those matchups, expecting her to string them all together is another matter. For that reason I’m going to leave her off these tips, but I did suggest her a while ago and backed her at the time, so she is very much still in my thoughts and one to keep an eye on.

    Despite having picked her to make the final above, I am steering clear of Serena. She was my shortest priced outright pick at the French, and she duly won. But 3/1 Serena is a lot better than a 7/4 Serena, and I have enough nagging doubts around her to make me stay away.

    This is the WTA, so all of us tipping this fortnight know we’re probably in for a topsy turvy time. It’s as easy to look like a fool as look like a genius, so let’s all be nice to each other and keep the stakes sensible!

    Kvitova @ 11/2

    I would really like a slightly larger price for someone as volatile as Petra, but she’s so good on this surface and has every chance of at least making the final to defend her title if she can keep her focus. The early rounds look pretty easy for her, and give her a good chance of building up a head of steam before she meets Radwanska. That match will not be a given by any means, and Keys could prove tricky after that if they both progress. Still, you can’t look past her in search of someone well suited to the surface, and her form this year, with the odd (and profitable!) exception, has been good. My shortest priced pick, that doesn’t mean I’ll be putting a huge stake on her by any means.

    Venus Williams
    100/1

    Looking back on Petra’s second Wimbledon title last year, it’s impossible for me not to think about what might have been if Venus had edged her out in the third round. Both women were superb as she fell 5-7, 7-6, 7-5, and it really could have gone the other way. Venus has proven in Aukland and Melbourne that she still has what it takes to compete with the best when conditions really suit her game. They should do here, and, other than the rather large exception of sister Serena’s presence, has a draw that suits her too. Brengle, Erakovic and Errani will be cannon fodder if Venus brings her very best, and while it may be a bit optimistic to think she can beat Serena after that, there have been enough cracks in the world number 1s armour in recent times for me to want to look beyond her.

    Maria Sharapova
    13/1

    Talking of looking elsewhere and manageable draws, Maria has an excellent chance here to go well. I think she could be in for al test in her first round match against Joanna Konta, but assuming she gets through that she has a great opportunity to play her way into form while moving deep into the draw. Her title defence in Paris was a letdown, but her form before that was pretty good, and only perpetual bogeyman Serena could stop her Down Under in the Aussie open.

    Strangely, Maria may even consider clay her favourite surface now, but the fast grass of Wimbledon suits her flat, heavy hitting no end, and when Maria starts hitting a groove she takes some stopping. Konta, Wang, Gavrilova and Petkovic is a pretty decent projected route as far as making it to a Grand Slam quarter final goes. This is kind of an illogical pick for me as I find it hard to see her beating Serena, who I’m projecting her to meet in the semis. But I have wild hopes of Serena getting beaten by Cibulkova or Venus, so I’m gambling a bit here.

    Keys
    65/1

    If Petra collapses, and Keys catches fire, she could storm into the semi finals. Her game is perfectly suited to the surface, and while she has quite a long way to go to prove she has the mental strength and steadiness to be a realistic pick as a grandslam winner yet, she is capable of beating just about anyone if she finds a consistently high level, and she did make the semis in Melbourne. Her draw is good, with a woefully out of form Bouchard her nearest seed. I can definitely see her getting to the quarters, and when it’s likely to be Petra Kvitova on the other side of the net, you just never know.

    Giorgi to win her quarter @ 16/1 (and a spare pound on her to win overall @ 150/1!)
    Electric when shes switched on, lethal on a slick grass court. The steadier Kerber may be too solid for her, but she certainly has a chance in that one. A much better price in my opinion than Lisicki at 3/1

    Keys to win her quarter @ 7/1.
    Getting the better of the winner of Radwanksa v Kvitova is a tall order, but not an impossible one by any means. Radwanaka can be outhit and Kvitova can beat herself. And the good news for Keys is that getting to that point looks very doable indeed.

    Safarova and Stephens are also all on my radar, with Kerber another one to look out for. I really am more just looking forward to seeing what happens on the women’s side of things than anything else, I don’t really have much of a clue what’s going to happen!

    First round picks:

    Tomljanovic d Koukalova @ 6/4

    Tomljanovic has the weapons to be a menace on grass. Koukalova is possibly the most combustible player on tour. She does have the better form, but it won’t take much for her to come undone here if Tomljanovic comes out firing.

    Sharapova v Konta 2-1 @ 4-1

    Cibulkova
    Vinci
    Muguruza
    Stephens
    Watson

    Pays 11/1

    A lot to digest here, and probably more of it than not will have made me look a little stupid come this time next week. But hopefully helpful in some way to someone.

    I wish everyone luck with their selections.

    • Jack 1 year ago

      Ad, very helpful mate. I’ve been watching tennis intensely for like 6 months but not all that much before that so your tips and thoughts to back up my opinions is very helpful.

      I’m going to look a big fool if Djokovic blows everyone away. Then again even with an injury he could still do it he’s that good.

  5. Ad 1 year ago

    Mr F – I can see the appeal of over 3.5 sets in Novak v Kohli. 2/1 is a decent price and will certainly add a little extra zest to the viewing experience. I would question the assessment of him as a big server though. Novak actually serves bigger!
    It’s the lack of an obvious shot to hurt the world number 1 with that makes it very hard to see him struggling too much. The ice cold Serb is 42-3 for the season for a reason. Tempting price, but probably a pipe dream!

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 1 year ago

      Ad, they’re all big servers I suppose. I’m doing a small stake on the overs but I’ve been surprised at the people tipping Kohlschreiber to win.

  6. eastcoaster 1 year ago

    Ad superb yet again. Will be following as per usual. Your hard work and following goes unappreciated at times as it saves the lot of us doing research and time to follow the tournaments etc. Looking forward to your mens selection. Was impressed with your French open tips and I got on safarova bet when you tipped her for title when a set up against sharapova in earlier rounds .Good work as always

  7. Ad 1 year ago

    Thanks eastcoaster. Kind words as always. One of the main things I think to take from my womens preview is that it’s hard to know what’s going to happen! if Serenas fit and focussed, with no hangover from the French, she will probably make this all redundant. I can see why Mr.f and many others are behind her, but It’s much more fun to hope she doesnt come up trumps!

  8. Phil 1 year ago

    Wimbledon Day 1

    Andreas Haider Maurer @2.50 1pt

    Dominic Thiem
    Steve Johnson Double @2.07 1pt

    Hyeon Cheung @2.40 1pt

    Alison Van Uytvanck @2.10 1pt

    Lucie Safarova
    Flavia Penetta Double @2.17 1pt

    Pablo Cuevas @2.20 1pt

  9. johnb 1 year ago

    Wimbledon

    Men’s Singles

    Liam Broadly v Marinko Matosevic

    LIAM BROADY 7/4 NAP boylesports

    By far the BET of the first round and maybe even the BET of the Championships

    ********************************************************

    Men’s Singles

    Dudi Sela v Dominik Thiem

    DUDI SELA 6/4 NB boylesports

    ********************************************************

    Women’s Singles

    Naomi Broady v Mariana Duque Marino

    NAOMI BROADY 4/5 boylesports

    Treble pays 11.38/1 boylesports

  10. WasClueless 1 year ago

    Ad – amazing analysis … thank you for taking the effort and time to share!! GL!!

  11. Snurkz 1 year ago

    Alexandra Dulgheru v Kristina Mladenovic

    Kristina Mladenovic to win 2-0 @ 4/5 nap

  12. Jack 1 year ago

    I’m really really tempted by Dustin Brown @ 6/5 but I’m worried its due to my bias…anyone?

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 1 year ago

      Jack, just been watching Bubba beating Casey in a play-off – I hope some were on. Going to walk the dug then might look at tennis after watching the end of the Senior Open.

      • Jack 1 year ago

        Congrats! Unfortunately wasn’t on but I’ll be around all day tomorrow and will be watching the tennis non-stop.

  13. Jack 1 year ago

    Nishikori, Radwanska, Baghdatis @ 1.23/1
    Broady to win a set, Zverev, Sharapova @ 1/1

    • the watcher 1 year ago

      to win a set player treble at just over evens.

      niemenen over 0.5 sets v Hewitt 1-4
      broady over 0.5 sets v matosevic 2-7
      cibulkova over 0.5 sets v hantuchova 2-7

      • the watcher 1 year ago

        Tuesday win double at roughly 11-8
        sock to beat groth 4-7
        tsonga to beat muller 8-15

        • the watcher 1 year ago

          mr fixer.
          if you really fancy kohlschreiber to nick a set what about the tennis version of score and win.
          djokovic win and both players to win a set 7-2 hills ??

          • the watcher 1 year ago

            main bet today.
            liam broady to win a set v matosevic 2-7
            niemenan v Hewitt over 3.5 sets 1-2
            pays about 10-11

  14. sam 1 year ago

    Serena to get the most aces at Wimbledon 3/4, surely buying money? She annihilated the other women in this regard at the French. Just a thought.

  15. sam 1 year ago

    May have to put a little bit on a serena/raonic most aces doubles at about 4.5/1

  16. sam 1 year ago

    turns out paddy won’t let me do that double, serena at 4s to win the remaining 2 slams seems ok

  17. sam 1 year ago

    6.5/1 not 4s *

  18. The wet lettuce 1 year ago

    Lettuce Long Shot Wimbledon

    All players to win

    Men

    Seppi
    Istomin
    Dustin Brown
    Robin Haase
    Querrey
    Posposil

    Ladies

    Azarenka
    Mladenovich
    Bencic
    Radwanska
    Sloane Stephens
    Lisiki

    12 fold…
    50/1 bet365…small change on it…all better ranked and better form.

  19. Finchy 1 year ago

    Posted on other tennis thread by mistake,

    Murray v Wawrinka finalists @ 12/1 Bet365
    Federer v Wawrinka finalists @ 20/1 Bet365

    Wawrinka outright @ 14/1 Bet365
    Timea Bacsinszky to make final @ 25/1 Bet365

    Good luck to all!

  20. craigyboy 1 year ago

    I’ve had a go on the Djokovic and Titchy Schreiber over 3.5 sets…2/1 looks a tasty price.

  21. Jack 1 year ago

    If today goes well I’m definitely having a bet on Brown, maybe a double with Bouchard. Both keep catching my eyes (I know she’s out of form but she has the quality) plus I like them both so its interest if anything not to mention the price of 7/4.

  22. Finchy 1 year ago

    Cheers Johnb, had my eye on Broady after a good show last year but forgot about betting on him tbh! Backed him after he went 1 and 2 sets down as well because I’m an idiot but it paid off. Thanks again.

  23. Mat 1 year ago

    Finchy what price was he at 2 sets down?

  24. Snurkz 1 year ago

    Alexandra Dulgheru v Kristina Mladenovic

    Kristina Mladenovic to win 2-0 @ 4/5 nap

    first nap wins :) hope some people managed to get on.

    Thanks John b added your tip to mine for a nice double . first day of Wimbledon = profit!, thats what its all about.

  25. Finchy 1 year ago

    I got 9/2 when he was a set down at the beginning of the second set (I think it went to about 6/1 when he got broke) and then after he lost the second set I got 7/1 I believe. Quite happy really! Wawrinka starting off very strong and Djokovic glides through but certainly didn’t play his best tennis.

  26. Harry 1 year ago

    Didn’t even see this thread, I was wondering why the usual tennis one was so quiet! Anyway, my first time tipping tennis today although I do follow and watch it regularly, but don’t bet on it as I’m too busy with football, and cricket when there’s no football. Luckily there’s no decent football or cricket on at the moment so I can give Wimbledon my full attention and hopefully pick a couple of winners to make the watching even more exciting. Backed Murray to win the thing a little while ago and a smaller stake on Stan EW but they’re tipped quite heavily in a lot of places.

    Today’s bets – (all posted on other thread) –

    Tomic to beat Struff
    S. Johnson to beat Lacko
    Mladenovic to beat Dulgheru

    Treble pays 23/20 William Hill

    WON

    Value single

    Nieminen to beat Hewitt

    6/4 BetVictor

    WON

    All 4 add

    Schiavone to beat Errani
    Zverev to beat Gabashvili

    Acca pays 22/1 Skybet

    LOST – bloody close though, maybe 22s was a bit ambitious for my first tennis acca. Not too surprisingly let down by the biggest price pick. Looking forward to tomorrow!

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 1 year ago

      Harry, I think all threads are a bit quieter today because some people are struggling to get on. Admin are aware of the problems and IT are trying to resolve.

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