KEVIN ANDERSON plays his second Grand Slam final today as he tries to deny Novak Djokovic a fourth Wimbledon crown.
Both came through five-setters in the semis and Djokovic is heavy favourite at 1-5 with Anderson the 9-2 underdog.
Djokovic and Rafael Nadal completed their match (as the rules reportedly state) under the roof, because they’d started that way, but he’ll have to adapt to different conditions today, as the forecast suggests a hot, sunny day with 0% chance of rain.
We haven’t had an underdog winner of the men’s singles final at Wimbledon since Andy Murray beat Djokovic in 2013, while three of the last four finals have featured two tie breaks in the match (there’s never been three breakers in any men’s singles final at Wimbledon) and the one that didn’t was Roger Federer’s win over an injured Marin Cilic last year.
Kevin Anderson vs Novak Djokovic
You’ve really got to hand it to Anderson, whose work ethic and commitment to improving and trying everything to be the best player that he can is worthy of a great deal of respect.
And it’s great to see it paying off, with a US Open final last season and now a Wimbledon championship match to add to his CV as well and boy has he done it the hard way!
Not content with beating Roger Federer from two sets down he backed that up by taking out John Isner from 2-1 down in a six-hours and 36-minutes marathon that strangely enough may have ended up helping him out.
The length of that match ensured that Djokovic and Rafa Nadal had to play over two days and it’s arguable as to whether Anderson’s extra day off could make him the fresher, perhaps mentally at least, after Djokovic was forced into a five-hour up and down affair with Nadal that finished a day later.
Of course accumulated fatigue could well be a problem for Anderson after over four hours on court against Federer to add to the mix, but Djokovic will be tired as well and he hadn’t played a full five set match before the Nadal one since the start of 2017 and pre-injury lay-off.
He certainly hasn’t looked as fit as he once was and he had that glassy-eyed look about him at times in a very up and down showing (albeit in a very entertaining and high-quality affair) against Nadal.
I’d certainly say there are question marks over his fitness these days and he may prove me wrong and come out as fresh as a daisy on Sunday, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
The elbow hasn’t been tested out like that since his injury and there was also talk of a knee problem earlier this tournament, so I think it’s all too easy to assume that Novak will be the fitter and more energised player – he may not be.
Also to consider is that Djokovic has lost four of his last five matches against the big servers in my database and he also lost to Sam Querrey at Wimbledon 2016 and narrowly edged it against Anderson at Wimbledon 2015 from two sets down.
And that was not the Anderson we’re seeing at the moment either, with the big man now much more confident on the big stage and not afraid to take the very best on in majors, as he showed when refusing to buckle against Federer (and Isner).
He also beat Andy Murray at the 2015 US Open, so the only one of the ‘big four’ he hasn’t defeated yet is Nadal (he’s also beaten Stan Wawrinka four times).
All of these wins and the run to the US Open final last season will be of great help to him on Sunday and the expected warm conditions will be useful too, with the ball flying that bit quicker through the air in the sunshine.
The 1-5 career head-to-head isn’t that relevant, given that only that 2015 clash at Wimbledon took place in the last six years and much has changed since then.
Anderson’s return game isn’t the best (13.7% breaks of serve this tournament), but his stats in that regard aren’t helped by having to have played Isner and Federer.
Looking back at that 2015 clash with Djokovic we find that they both had eight break point chances each and the difference was that Anderson took only one and Djokovic five.
Djokovic is well ahead with regard to returning and what also must have been very pleasing for him and his team was the way he served against Nadal, firing down 23 aces, and coming up with high quality serves when he needed them.
The Serb’s extra all-round quality makes him the likely winner here, but I am concerned about his recovery after that Nadal match given his lack of long matches recently and that patchy record against big servers.
Djokovic, in his last 10 against the big servers on my database, is 5-5 and has broken serve only 15% of the time (Anderson’s broken 12.5% of the time against the same group of players) and he’s played at least one tie break in seven of his last eight against that group.
So, I’m leaning towards the over games or over sets in this one, with the over 3.5 sets at 1.75 looking the wager of interest, or the 3-1 to Djokovic at 3.60 for a bigger-priced wager.
I’m also not convinced that the opening set should be odds-on go to a breaker either, given the respective fatigue of the two players and Anderson’s edgy starts against both Federer and Isner.
So, under 12.5 games in set one at 1.97 is worth considering too, with Djokovic having played only one opening set tie break in his last 19 on grass (against Chardy at Queen’s) too.
The fatigue factor makes this one tricky to call, so it won’t be a big bet by any means, but Anderson to make a match of this looks the way to go.
Best Bet
- 1.5 points win over 3.5 sets (1.75, Unibet)
In December 2020 we sadly 
