IT was another profitable night despite my stupid decision to change my Super Single from St Patrick’s to Bristol City.
I flagged up St Pat’s at home to Dundalk after the Europa League heroes had clinched the title on Sunday but I couldn’t confirm the 21-4 price I quoted was available.
When I checked they’d been cut to 7-4 and didn’t want to tip it without firm team news. You can imagine how I felt when St Pat’s romped into a 4-0 first-half lead against the much-weakened champions.
Some of you got on at 4-1 with bet365 so it was worthwhile flagging it up.
The main problem with EFL Cup games is you should wait for line-ups before having a bet. I don’t have that luxury when posting tips and didn’t expect Bristol City to field a weakened side.
Their loss to Hull cost me 1.4pts and I blew 1pt on the goals treble that wasn’t close. But my 2pts Top Treble landed at 11-4 thanks to Liverpool, Newcastle and Monchengladbach so I can’t complain.
Greg got his usual late goal at Newcastle but his goals double flopped with the National League failing to produce its usual quota.
Tonight there are five Scottish Premiership games and I’ve posted a separate preview. Celtic have made eight changes for the trip to Dingwall and Leigh Griffiths starts on his own up front. I’m happy to risk 1pt on him scoring first.
Highlight of the EFL Cup games will be Man United v Man City and of the two City will be making more changes with the likes of Pablo Maffeo, Angelio, Aleix Garcia, Kelechin Iheanacho and Leroy Sane confirmed starters.
Neither set of fans wants to lose the match but Jose Mourinho probably needs the win more than Pep Guardiola and United should go through if he fields a strong side.
Elsewhere there are eight games in Serie A and cup clashes across Europe so plenty to look at.
Team news is so vital as we saw last night and I’ve decided not to touch the EFL Cup games until line-ups are confirmed – I’m working tonight but it will be quiet until about 9.30pm so hopefully I’ll get a chance to clock teams as they drop and possibly add to the tips.
I’d take Man United and Southampton will beat Sunderland at home unless they make wholesale changes. West Ham could also be a bet if Chelsea go weakened.
League games are preferable to punt on and my both to score treble comes from Serie A. Sassuolo have netted in every game this season with both scoring in their last seven and No.8 could be when Roma visit.
It’s a big night for Inter with suggestions manager Frank de Boer will be sacked if they don’t beat Torino at home. Torino have netted 11 in four so should be goals in the San Siro.
Complete the treble with Lazio v Cagliari. The Romans have netted eight in four while Cagliari’s last six have totalled 24 goals including a weekend 5-3 loss to Fiorentina at home. They’ve netted on three of their last five visits to the capital.
For a Super Single I’m siding with Atalanta at Pescara. When you look at form it’s surprising to see Atalanta as big as 24-13 with Marathonbet. In their last four games they’ve beaten Inter, Napoli and Crotone and drawn at Fiorentina.
Pescara haven’t won a game this season although were awarded a victory against Sassuolo on a technicality. Three of their five home games have been draws but they’ve only netted one goal in three in front of their own fans and in Atalanta are in the mood they should win.
My Top Treble does feature cup games so obviously I’m hoping Marseille go close to full strength at Clermont. Marseille look good value at just under evens and marked Rudi Garcia’s first match in charge by holding PSG 0-0 in Paris on Sunday.
They face struggling Ligue 2 Clermont and as long as Garcia fancies a cup run this should be a comfortable victory.
Add over 2.5 goals when Dortmund meet Bundesliga 2 title chasers Union Berlin. Dortmund have been in poor form but never struggle to score as Saturday’s 3-3 draw at Ingolstadt showed. They should win this but I prefer to go for goals at a bigger price as the underdogs could contribute a goal.
Complete the treble with Motherwell not to lose at home to Inverness. The Highlanders are improving but haven’t won away and I can’t see them picking up more than a point.
1.5pts Super Single
1pt Super Single
Griffiths to score first (7.45pm)
1pt Top Treble
Dortmund v Union Berlin over 2.5 goals (7.45pm)
Motherwell not to lose (7.45pm)
1pt Both to Score Treble
Inter v Torino (7.45pm)
Lazio v Cagliari (7.45pm)
Sassuolo v Roma (7.45pm)
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October Super Singles Total
(30 bets, 12 winners, 1 void)
October Advised Accas Total
(50 bets, 13 winners)
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