THE major issue punters will have to factor in this weekend are the FA Cup first-round matches.
League One, League Two and National League sides are joined by extreme minnows such as Salford City, FC United and Didcot Town, the lowest-ranked team left in the tournament.
As you know I’ve been studying stats in the RFO and there’s a good article from Kevin Pullein pointing out goals is the way to go in the first round. We probably knew that but he backs it with stats including the fact first-round games have averaged three goals a game from 1995 up to last season.
That compares to 2.8 for rounds two to four and 2.7 for rounds five and six. He also points out the highest scores came not surprisingly when League One sides entertain non-league teams. The average rises to 3.7 goals and away from home it’s 3.3.
Sheffield Utd, Port Vale, Millwall, Doncaster and Crewe are the League One sides at home to non-league opposition this weekend while Barnsley, Bradford, Chesterfield, Colchester and Shrewsbury are on their travels. Statistically these are the games you should focus on for goals and I’ll post an over 2.5 goals FA Cup accumulator on Friday night.
As far as WDW bets I’ve put together my Saturday Super Single shortlist. This is taken from my first serious look at the card and checking only form and stats – not team news.
All selections are close to or above evens – and comments on why sides should be in or out will be appreciated as well as your own selections.
Super Single shortlist
MANSFIELD v Oldham
PLYMOUTH v Carlisle
LEICESTER v Watford
Sunderland v SOUTHAMPTON
Charlton v SHEFF WED
QPR v Preston
HEARTS v Hamilton
Raith v FALKIRK
Brechin v AYR UTD
Elgin v ANNAN
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