Nov 29: Johnb’s Racing Tips & Chat

Racing_WilliamHill

JOHNB landed a 4-1 winner on Saturday as Thistlecrack cracked it at Newbury.

That helped bank a 1pt profit for the day and our man is now 20.37pts down for November as he looks to cut the deficit further on Sunday.

Johnb’s Sunday Tips

Carlisle 1:20
Divine Port 4-1 hills

3:20
Prairie Lad 3-1 NAP/NB hills (double stake)

Double
Divine Port & Prairie Lad 19-1 hills

67 Comments
  1. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 year ago

    Every bookie has now roughly halved their odds for THISTLECRACK in the World Hurdle
    Ladbrokes now best odds of 10/1 but as low as 7/1

    Hope some of you got the 20/1 i advised
    He has still got a lot of improvement in him being lightly raced
    The trainer wanted to go chasing with him this season so it would give home another year as a novice but I could see the potential of Thistlecrack & he is a serious World Hurdle contender & my opinion come Cheltenham he will be the one to beat

  2. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 1 year ago

    Gunnery seargent 1.10 nAp

  3. Profile photo of duncanpoundcake
    duncanpoundcake 1 year ago

    Snuker 12.20 Carlisle all 5 wins on heavy ground 5/1 ew bet to nothing GL.

  4. Profile photo of the don cossack
    the don cossack 1 year ago

    2.50 carlise
    gitane du berlais 1t3
    1.40 artic fire 4t6 nap double

    2pm leicester
    creevyennant 4t1[though just gone 3’s bet365]nb

    also smal fancy on 12.50 carlise
    de bene esse 9t4

  5. Profile photo of duncanpoundcake
    duncanpoundcake 1 year ago

    Also taking Johnb’s 2 with Looking Well(Tracker) in a patent GL

  6. Profile photo of double carpet
    double carpet 1 year ago

    Cracking card at Fairyhouse tomorrow. Just hope the weather doesnt take centre stage. 3 grade ones and a couple of very competitive h’caps. Will put thoughts up in the morning.

  7. Profile photo of the don cossack
    the don cossack 1 year ago

    Message from The Don Cossack.
    Etymology and origins
    The name Cossack (казак, козак) was widely used to describe “free people” as opposed to others with different standing in a feudal society (i.e., peasants, nobles, clergy, etc.). The word ‘cossack’ was also applied to migrants, free-booters and bandits.[3]

    The exact origins of Cossacks are unknown. In modern view, [previous wikipedia-this me..”The Don Cossack’s at war with the bookie’s giving no ground.

    • Profile photo of the don cossack
      the don cossack 1 year ago

      In the course of time they turned into a united community and were called “the Cossacks”.

      Napoleon[Mr Fixit is credited with declaring, “Cossacks are the finest light troops among all that exist. If I had them in my army, I would go through all the world with them.”

      The Cossacks had a democratic society where the most important decisions were made during a Common Assembly (Казачий Круг). The assembly elected temporary authorities — atamans.[alamns………haha.]
      Don Cossacks were skilled horsemen and experienced warriors, due to their long conflict with the Bookies

  8. Profile photo of rookie
    rookie 1 year ago

    15.30 L Aces over eights 13/2
    14.40 F Outlander 11/2
    14.30 L Malanos 9/1
    13.20 C Divine port 4/1

  9. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 1 year ago

    NAP De Bene Esse 5/2 12.50 Carlisle
    NB Mini Muck 8/1 3.30 Leicester

    Big well done to all winners yesterday onwards and upwards
    Don your so funny lol :)

  10. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 1 year ago

    A few unbeaten runners at Fairyhouse at great early prices well worth a look.

    • Profile photo of the don cossack
      the don cossack 1 year ago

      An old wise, man[78]once told me, always back unbeaten horse’s. He once gave me hot weld 33t1 at chelt.
      please tell us more alanm, am always keen to be more informed.
      thanks alanm the great[in line with the siberian theme] i do try, on a going day. 😉 yeeeeha

    • Profile photo of jimron12
      jimron12 1 year ago

      Love your nap…

  11. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 1 year ago

    Arctic fire does not lose!

    • Profile photo of the don cossack
      the don cossack 1 year ago

      Maybe the new rock on ruby? If only trained by someone less high profile! for a better price.
      Would you advise just a single and leave out the sometimes brilliant, but at times broody mare gitane de berlias ? Am unsure if theirs value in it, don’t usually back such sort odds but tempted after Johnbs Linc on millionaire gamblers. Though noticed, no one on here tips such sort odds. What everyone’s thoughts?

  12. Profile photo of
    1 year ago

    RESTLESS HARRY 2:00 leicester 11-4

    • Profile photo of
      1 year ago

      RESTLESS HARRY now N/R

      SMOKING BIG CIGARS 2:10 fairyhouse

  13. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 year ago

    the don cossack I stay away from odds on but you can still have value with an odds on horse
    The point punters need to know though is if someone just backs 10/11 horses then they need a 52.4% win rate just to be level

  14. Profile photo of gerdub
    gerdub 1 year ago

    Going to fairyhouse today, any thoughts appreciated. Fancy a few fans but looking for value bets as well!

  15. Profile photo of
    1 year ago

    Morning everyone

    Great day yesterday 2 wiinners and a second from my 3 selections last night 2/1 3/1

    nothing today of my own

    see what the jumps guys have later in the local

    good luck everyone

    happy days

  16. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 1 year ago

    I love Ryan Moore!

  17. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 1 year ago

    Free Expression 2.40 Fairyhouse 11/4

  18. Profile photo of duncanpoundcake
    duncanpoundcake 1 year ago

    Not a tip but
    Just watching Julian Temple’s film about the inspirational Wilko Johnson
    Wilcos Mo Chara 2.10 Fairyhouse ,coincidence ,probably ,small e/w.

  19. Profile photo of double carpet
    double carpet 1 year ago

    Afternoon all
    Heres my thoughts on a very wet and windy fairyhouse card.

    12.40 Missy Tata – Penalty kick
    1.10 This is a fascinating race and the Mullins pair are top drawer but i have doubts over both. Long Dog has been running over further and both would prefer better ground. Im convinced Gunnery Seargent would have won lto had he stayed on his feet but this is a huge step up in class for him. But the fact hes been put in against this field in only his 2nd start over hurdles tells me my source is bang on with his view of this horse and i will continue to follow him.
    1.40 Arctic fire
    If he stays on his feet he really should win
    2.10 There are 2 very well hcapped horses Ballyadam Approach and Living Next Door but with form figures of 0-23 for Tony Martin over the last 14 days its Ballyadam for me
    2.40 Monksland
    I was very impressed with his first run over fences when he produced a faultless round of jumping and at the odds i happy to take on the fav
    3.10 Sword fish
    This will be a real slog and ive gone for Sword fish as hes down to 1lb below last win mark which was here over 3m 1f. Bit of money for this this morning too which you have to take notice of when its carrying the green and gold colours
    3.10 Sunny May
    2nd to highly regarded Mullins horse on only start but the 3rd won easily next time out

    Enjoy the racing and best of luck to all

  20. Profile photo of davie67
    davie67 1 year ago

    De Bene Esse very poor.

  21. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 year ago

    On the forum about professional punters there are 5 punters I have posted about but more to come.

    We also have the question & answer forum & the antepost forum which had my bets advised so far including THISTLECRACK who was advised at 20/1

  22. Profile photo of recoba
    recoba 1 year ago

    Moonlight Maggie…3.00 11/4

    GL guys 😉

  23. Profile photo of duncanpoundcake
    duncanpoundcake 1 year ago

    Well done Johnb and Thanks!

  24. Profile photo of oriaz
    oriaz 1 year ago

    GJ Johnb, fingers crossed for the double!

  25. Profile photo of double carpet
    double carpet 1 year ago

    Well done johnb

  26. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 1 year ago

    Arctic wins was my only bet of the day happy days

    • Profile photo of rale
      rale 1 year ago

      I know that I am gonna get “hairdryer” treatment from self appointed sherrif of the thread for being “negative”, but I have to ask this.
      Jimron are you saying you Nap a horse here, but you don’t back it?
      Gunnery Seargent was your Nap, but now you say Artic Fire was your only bet.

  27. Profile photo of the don cossack
    the don cossack 1 year ago

    D Jacobs wouldn’t get another ride again if I was Mullins, why let a tied horse keep in touch with you? That’s hit me hard.
    I was on gunnery sergeant ,thinking you was keen on it jimron.
    But luckily got evens for artic fire,to cover stake.

    Rale the self appointed ataman, lol.

    • Profile photo of jimron12
      jimron12 1 year ago

      I was very keen on it but unfortunatly it was a bit pants wasn’t it! All Ryan moores good work un done

      That’s racing!

  28. Profile photo of rale
    rale 1 year ago

    I totally accept Jimron’s explanation, but I had to ask, as I think it would be totally wrong to tip a horse, but not putting hard cash on it.
    Hope there’s no hard feelings here, as Jimron was always good contributer on this thread.

    • Profile photo of jimron12
      jimron12 1 year ago

      Of course mate it was my fault entirely and unfortunately i lost a few bob on it gonna go through the nfl games now see if the bookies have priced anything up wrong like the panthers game thurs they took a pounding !!!

  29. Profile photo of davie67
    davie67 1 year ago

    Another NAP/NB destroyed, when was the last one that won?

    • Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 1 year ago

      davie67 tomorrow

    • Profile photo of petet
      petet 1 year ago

      Davie67
      These NAP/NB’s have been brutal recently – they do win but recently the form has been pants. More annoyingly they’ve been nowhere near on most occasions.

      That said, the second horse has usually been priced to mean if the NAP/NB and the double dont come in then we break even (or thereabouts). Today’s a prime example with 0 points up or down from yesterday (so we can’t really complain). I think the last couple have yielded a 1 point gain give or take.

      Would have been great for the NAP/NB to have landed and wiped out November’s loss (it’s been a horrid 3 months) but a day where I dont lose is a good day in a lot of ways.

      Onwards to tomorrow – good luck! :)

  30. Profile photo of rale
    rale 1 year ago

    Easy to say now, but Nap/NB had no history of running good after long absence. Won class 5 lto and this one was c4. As there were no reasonings for it, we will never know why he put it as double stake bet. Maybe one for next time.

    • Profile photo of jimron12
      jimron12 1 year ago

      With hindsight 12.55 tomo hahaha

    • Profile photo of petet
      petet 1 year ago

      Rale – I think it was a good selection pre race. A few other respected and reliable sources also picked it so something must have stood out for our man. On the day the horse didnt deliver but, as I said above, a break even day isn’t a disaster. Disappointing but not devastating

      Some of these double stake bets have got to come good :)

      • Profile photo of the don cossack
        the don cossack 1 year ago

        Are you admin Petet?
        Where and what pointed that horse to being a good tip, barring Johnbs say so? Am going to check again now, as like I said , last night it stood out as a lay, all day.
        If you answer on breeding, then ! If any tipster backs on breeding then they are purley toffs. In my 15 years ? Their useless and don’t bet. Just love the bull of talking up other toffs. so please don’t say it flat form, was plausable for a nap nb double stakes bet.

        • Profile photo of petet
          petet 1 year ago

          I’m just a normal punter The Don Cossack who hurts when I lose money and has a little (some might say) dangerous horse racing knowledge!

          The most obvious place which supported JohnB’s selected was the Timeform selections which had JohnB’s NAP/NB as their top ranked favourite and prediction to win. Curiously they also had John’s winning tip as their favourite too. I saw the horse mentioned a couple of other places for various reasons too.

          Sadly I don’t know enough to pick horses to lay or about breeding. It’s purely jockeys, trainer form and knowing a little about the horse for me.

          Either way, my point was we didn’t have a disaster day but, as my first point said to DavieB – these NAP/NBs have been brutal recently and I really hope they improve as the last 3 months have really taken their toll.

          • Profile photo of the don cossack
            the don cossack 1 year ago

            Fair enough, I won’t read such people’s info until making my own mind up. Then i may, use use people that get paid (thanks rj,( paided)mud sticks) by racing to help make a decision, as they have an interest in maintaining the sports appeal.(i think its very important to always remember that).
            Bookies often miss price stuff to use odds on backers that cannot be arsed or unable to use their own mind.
            And to drive prices up on their own selections

          • Profile photo of the don cossack
            the don cossack 1 year ago

            May johnbs good days return.

    • Profile photo of the don cossack
      the don cossack 1 year ago

      Agree rale the nap nb double was poor and on the form books it looked poor, last night I thought this was a false fav!? Meaning the bookies under priced it, to temp others in , and bring down the price down, for the one they’ll all on.

  31. Profile photo of
    1 year ago

    was last bet today for myself for a short while back feeding the animals on the special farm again tomorrow. hopefully be back in few months time with a bit luck. take care all
    🐐🐇🐄🐂🐮🐸🐼🐖🐧

  32. Profile photo of rale
    rale 1 year ago

    Winner had 2 recent runs and his fitness was evident on testing ground. It’s no good saying now, well it needed this run.
    I don’t want to sound too clever, as I am not when it comes to horses, but I did not back that one as a single, only in a small double, as nothing said to me that it would run well fresh. Having said that, yesterday I went for Nap/Nb, but did not back other one that won.

  33. Profile photo of rale
    rale 1 year ago

    Tipster that I follow just Maxed (max stake) Evacusafe Lady 16/1, in first at Kempton, tomorrow. Do whatever you like with info.

  34. Profile photo of shaky
    shaky 1 year ago

    It’s funny how people always seem to wait until after the races to voice their opinions on johnb’s selections. I’m sure the same people would also handpick plenty of stats to prove why Divine Port was a terrible choice, had it not won.

    • Profile photo of the don cossack
      the don cossack 1 year ago

      Both Johnbs races I avoided when selecting my bets.
      Then given previous form and stats of Johnb, I had a nibble on 3 bets. Placing more purely on nap nb status.(even though first selection looked a better bet on form)
      I have asked and voiced my opinion many times and not always had an answer back? Before the race!
      I read mr f saying years back ,scrolling through an old post that millsey used to give reasoning and decided not to after thread backlash.(certainly not word for word) I think rale may have been the man in question, asking for more info?
      If the selection is big bucks or don Cossack say, then no reasoning is needed but surely when it’s on fittness or flat form,going to jumps?then extra is very useful, I think.

  35. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 year ago

    Third day in a row with a 4/1 winner and again just a 1 point profit
    November 19.37 point loss

    Monday’s Tips

    Plumpton
    2:10
    Tambura 5/1 paddy power

    3:10
    Eastern Witness 9/2 coral NAP/NB (double stake)

    Double
    Tambura & Eastern Witness 26.5/1 coral

  36. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 1 year ago

    Quiet tonight lads…..

    Few little fancies tomo plumpton is going to be a mud bath I feel

  37. Profile photo of
    1 year ago

    Johnb can you let us know your reasons for picking those 2 ? before anybody parts with there hard earned cash IMO Tambura looks in the grip of the handicapper with its latest 2 runs pretty poor and Eastern Witness your double stake NAP/NB was pulled up only 25 days ago and looks like a horse indecline yeh V Williams horses usually do alright when the mud is flying and its only got 10/6 on its back but a’m struggling to see how it can beat Leith Hill Legasi who only haves to give it 7 pound. Both races small fields but pretty competitive.

  38. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 1 year ago

    Things are never what they seem
    Eastern Witness may look like a horse in decline but there are always reasons why a horse gets beat

    I don’t pick a horse because the trainer may have a good record on testing ground but the horse also has to be able to run on it and Eastern Witness can run on soft/heavy going.

    So people may be wondering why Eastern Witness hasn’t won any of last 6 times the horse has been on soft or heavy going
    As I was saying there is always a reason a horse doesn’t win
    with Eastern Witness those reasons are that he hasn’t had his distance or a favourable handicap mark at the same time

    Now on a mark of 79 over 3 mile + distance with testing ground he now has his ideal race
    and the icing on the cake is that it’s a weak race

    Leith Hill Lagasi is the favourite because of a good run last time but some horses can’t handle an increase in weight and she is one of them
    raised 7lb for that win is enough to get her beat

    People can say “but she has won off a rating of 85″ which is just 1lb lower than Monday’s rating but that was with a 5lb claimed onboard

    As I said it’s a weak race but a mark of 86 with a horse like Eastern Witness in the race is too high for Leith Hill Legasi

    Eastern Witness did run ok last time leading to just before the 3rd last in a race that was the wrong distance and ground

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