Nov 15: Johnb’s Racing Tips & Chat

Racing_WilliamHill

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NO joy for Johnb on Monday and he’s now 33.34 pts down for November.

He’s back with a double for Tuesday and I wish him luck.

Well done to all the winners on the thread and keep posting your tips and thoughts.

Johnb’s Tuesday Tips

Lingfield 12.55
Grabanzo 6-1 NB bet365

Fakenham 2.05
Lift The Lid 9-2 NAP Paddy Power

Double 29-1 Betvictor

Antepost Tips

1000 Guineas 2017

PROMISE TO BE TRUE 20-1 betfred

2000 Guineas 2017

CHURCHILL 20-1 (now 8-1) bet365

2017 Derby

CHURCHILL 33-1 (now 20-1) racebets

2000 Guineas 2017

BLUE POINT 14-1 racebets

Johnb says: “I have already advised Churchill for next year’s 2000 Guineas & Derby – he has been really impressive this season and my view is he will get even better next year.

“Blue Point on the other hand is harder to call for how he will progress next year. If he trains on then in my view it’s a straight fight between Blue Point & Churchill but in the Derby Churchill is the only horse for me – he gives me the same excitement as Golden Horn did.

“But to answer my question earlier the most impressive horse I have seen this year is BLUE POINT with Churchill and Annie Power a close second and third.”

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101 Comments
  1. Profile photo of harryjw
    harryjw 8 months ago

    Evening all,

    Today was a disappointing day, it started badly with Bassarabad who jumped poorly throughout and faded badly into a well beaten 2nd, followed by Tiger Jim who then ran a very poor race at newcastle. Rebel surge did provide some respite finishing 3rd at 10/1 but then clubland had no luck in the 4.30 being blocked in for well over a furlong and staying on strongly at the end. Tuesday provides a opportunity for my first increased stakes bet in over a week, plus two others for a small wager.

    1.15 Southwell – Churchtown Champ 11/8 NAP

    Churchtown champ looks an outstanding bet at 11/8 (I have him priced up much shorter). He ran an outstanding race last time behind feyette county (ran well at cheltenham latest) at Worcester. He jumped beautifully throughout the race and I think he may have won if he wasn’t constantly squeezed on the outside from 4 out, after which Harry steklton switched him and he ran on only going down by a head. Today looks like a perfect opportunity to make amends, this big scopey type allways looked like a chaser in the making and while he was tried at grade 2 level over hurdles it is not surprising connections have made the move to fences quickly. The ground shall be fine and although he has a 4lb rise to deal with today I think that this horse is open to bags of improvement. 11/8 looks like a value price and I expect him to go off much shorter. I will be increasing my stakes for this bet! (but as always nothing is assured)

    1.35 Fakenham – Queen Spud 5/2

    Fakenham is somewhat of a specialist course, therefore a chance is taken on course expert queen spud today. The 7yo mare is 3/3 at the course and after a brave win last time there is every chance she can follow up today over this longer trip. She travels like longer should suit and if able to get bowling along in front she may be hard to peg back. She will however need to brush up on her jumping so I will only be having a small interest.

    1.55 Lingfield – Gorokai 5/1 EW

    The switch back to the all weather can lead to gorokai getting his head back in front again. His record on the surface speaks for itself and while he wasn’t discrased on the turf the last few times I have always felt it didn’t really suit him. He likes to come late in his races and last time at goodwood on softish ground he got bogged down and could never reach top gear. He remains on a workable mark and If you take the turf runs out of equation he would have been shorter for this race today. While I am not a fan of Spencer he does love a hold up horse so hopefully he can time it right and deliver gorokai into the winners enclosure.

    Thanks and GL all

    • Profile photo of alanm
      alanm 8 months ago

      Great call Harry eating my humble pie

      • Profile photo of harryjw
        harryjw 8 months ago

        It’s an opinions game after all alanm next time I will be right and you will be wrong! It’s always good to hear other opinions.

        All that matters is beating the bookies!!

        GL tomorrow

        • Profile photo of harryjw
          harryjw 8 months ago

          Sorry I meant you will be right and I will be wrong!

          Mistyped that.

          Many apologies.

    • Profile photo of cow786
      cow786 8 months ago

      WELL DONE harryjw EASY VICTORY
      NO WHEELBARROWS FOR ME !!

  2. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 8 months ago

    Nap/NB khismet 2.05

    Most people will know my previous encounter with This up and coming 3 year old!

    Noticed Flint has one of
    His own running aswell following a similar pattern of poor runs reduced weights so will have a small interest in Taroum 1.05

    Also like queen spud 1.35 course specialist and still looks in form

    Treble on them just incase 👍

    • Profile photo of alanm
      alanm 8 months ago

      Hold that wheelbarrow.
      There was nothing wrong with Dan Skelton’s charge run on chase/seasonal debut at Worcester, just touched off by Fayette County with the first three miles clear. However, the winner did nothing for the form next time and there was an impression at the time that it was muddling form in a small field. He has experience of jumping in the book, but now meets some very promising rivals who have potential to go onto better things over fences, and simply looks far too short at around the 5/4 mark on betfair.

    • Profile photo of alanm
      alanm 8 months ago

      Hold that wheelbarrow on Churchtown Champ
      There was nothing wrong with Dan Skelton’s charge run on chase/seasonal debut at Worcester, just touched off by Fayette County with the first three miles clear. However, the winner did nothing for the form next time and there was an impression at the time that it was muddling form in a small field. He has experience of jumping in the book, but now meets some very promising rivals who have potential to go onto better things over fences, and simply looks far too short at around the 5/4 mark on betfair.

      Sorry Statto Jimrons is good to go

      • Profile photo of jimron12
        jimron12 8 months ago

        Alanm have u been drinking 😂😂😂

      • Profile photo of harryjw
        harryjw 8 months ago

        Alanm,

        Intresting points of view Alan. I am of course not recommending anyone take a wheelbarrow of cash to Churchtown champ only stating I will increase my bet.

        I personally thought Fayette county ran a very good race coming 3rd a Cheltenham.

        It is an opinions game at the end of the day and you very well might be right.

        Either way I wish you the best of luck tomorrow.

    • Profile photo of tipsultan
      tipsultan 8 months ago

      first two done on treble.. good luck

      • Profile photo of harryjw
        harryjw 8 months ago

        Thank you. Unfortunatly Spencer gave that horse little chance! Ran on to be closets at the end.

  3. Profile photo of davyb
    davyb 8 months ago

    virile 1.25 lin
    brave helios 12.45 south
    gorokai 1.55 lin
    al khan 3.25 lin

  4. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 8 months ago

    Got two more singles

    Viva Rafa 1.45 14/1 ew

    And high mark 12.55 13/8

    Good luck all

    • Profile photo of harryjw
      harryjw 8 months ago

      Jimron,

      High mark is very intresting with Goldolfin going very well in maidens!

      John Fergurson has worked wonders again!

      Best of luck.

      • Profile photo of Johnb
        Johnb 8 months ago

        I would be interested to know what John Ferguson has done, he has underperformed for so many years at Godolphin, their operation is bigger than Ballydoyle but is so far behind Ballydoyle it’s embarrassing to be associated with Godolphin,
        So many aspects of the Godolphin operation are wrong but could be very easily fixed

        • Profile photo of jimron12
          jimron12 8 months ago

          I agree godopphin are not what they should be by any means but should still be powerful enough to be mopping a race like this so late into the year!

          • Profile photo of harryjw
            harryjw 8 months ago

            Yes I couldn’t agree more godolphin are huge underachievers. But who ever was purchasing their blood stock while John Fergurson was off training has a lot to answer for, as there last few years have been the worse in memory. 2 years ago (I think) they sold 2 group 1 producing broodmares in the end of season sales. The operation has been badly ran for years but at least John Fergurson seems to have brought around stability again. It’s about time to operation was scaled back but whom ever oversees it needs a good eye for horses.

            One thing I can’t understand is there reluctance to use certain bloodlines they spend so much money on blood stock but seem very reluctant to buy Galileos and have said they will not purchase any frankle offspring. I understand pride before a fall…but come on.

            • Profile photo of Johnb
              Johnb 8 months ago

              John Ferguson was advising on the Bloodstock while training and has been for over 30 years, the state of Godolphin is the fault of two people, the boss and his lap dog, the sheikh and Ferguson
              His way doesn’t work anymore, he isn’t prepared to move with the times

              Then you have Michael Tabor the heart of Ballydoyle Coolmore, businessman, bookie and punter,
              There isn’t anything to do with horses he doesn’t know and his knowledge of breeding is second to none

  5. Profile photo of double carpet
    double carpet 8 months ago

    Ive noticed that quite a few SP FAVS in the opening races at each meeting lately that have gone in so i decided to do a bit of maths and see actually how many and what profit if any would it bring.
    Im probably barking up the wrong tree long term but i said id take a look anyway.
    NOT including today, there have been 59 races this month so far with the SP FAV winning on 34 occasions which is a 62.7% strike rate yielding a profit of 39.25 for a 1 euro stake. Pretty decent figures, so i took it a bit further tonight and looked at the month of Oct. and of the 153 races 72 SP FAV’s won yielding a profit of 25.40 for a 1 euro stake. I would like to take this further and split flat and NH and will probably do so when i have a bit more time as when gathering the info i could notice certain patterns with the flat being a lot less consistent than NH and now that the flat season is over except AW, it may become more consistent. Its probably just coincidence as if it was that easy then it would have been noticed before now and surely it cant be that easy to make a profit but as im curious about this ill keep it going until the end of the month and see how it fares out.
    GL

    • Profile photo of jimron12
      jimron12 8 months ago

      Dc I looked into this a Few years back started Doing a Yankee/round robin on the them first races of the day it was did end up Being profitable but not massively didn’t do it religiously and kind of stopped it. Be interesting to have a look back into it as if I remember I did it in the summer (flat)…

  6. Profile photo of ciaran1988
    ciaran1988 8 months ago

    12.55 Lingfield – High Mark 7/4
    2.55 Lingfield – Strong Force 11/8

  7. Profile photo of gengar
    gengar 8 months ago

    15.15 Jaunty Thor 9/4 NAP raced three days back should win this though
    1.05 Debt To Society 5/2 NB
    12.25 Marettimo 3/1 NNB
    15.55 Mr Marchwood 5/2 fav should be fav but have a hunch will go well

    gl all.

    • Profile photo of gengar
      gengar 8 months ago

      oh the 15.25 race Exchequer @4/1 big odds for a horse who won @ c&d three times and drops back massively in grade also has the highest rating defiantly worth a bet.

  8. Profile photo of
    8 months ago

    Morning everyone

    Another great day yesterday thanks again for comments.

    Fakenham

    14.05 HONCHO .. this is still available at 14/1 with bet365 already down to 7/1 with many bookmakers
    ..
    13.35 SHAKY GIFT .. 10/3 .. NB

    13.05 TAROUM . 4/1.

    Southwell

    15.45 SEARCHING FOR GOLD .. 9/4 .. NAP .. B .Hughes suddenly become my favourite jockey

    gl all
    .

  9. Profile photo of dougiec
    dougiec 8 months ago

    Morning,
    Nap.. Definitely Grey.1.45.Sthl
    Nb……Diamond Fort..3.45 Sthl
    Looking for value bet to add
    gl

  10. Profile photo of hamish75
    hamish75 8 months ago

    Johnb if offered wud ye take a job wi godolphin a fink wi ur unmatched knowledge of horse racing ye cud take the embarrassment? Well dun aw the winners threads on fire statto sometimes papa smurf acts as the interpreter fir ma posts sometimes a don’t even no wot i said gud luck mate ktf

    • Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 8 months ago

      To be honest Godolphin need someone like me but because I have a reputation of speaking my mind and the Sheikh wouldn’t like me telling him to butt out,
      I have recently advised on the purchase of a horse for a customer and also advised them on race planning for one of their other horses

      The saying has always been “there is a race out there for every horse to win”
      I know I can find that race

      • Profile photo of rale
        rale 8 months ago

        hiw about you find a winner for a thread? It’s been a long, long time…

        • Profile photo of Johnb
          Johnb 8 months ago

          lol I do what it says on the tin
          I do what I have said from day one
          From day one I have said I guarantee yearly profits,
          Others try, they come and go saying they will keep track of profit/losses but always end up giving up,

          The three years I have been on here have all been profits, every year has had at least one antepost winner of at least 20/1
          If you just take into account the five classics on the flat then every year has had one winner at a minimum 25/1

          😂😂😂😂😂

          • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
            Mr Fixit 8 months ago

            As they say keep the faith – I think you’ve proved yourself beyond doubt and not sure why some still have a dig.

  11. Profile photo of dougiec
    dougiec 8 months ago

    Masterpaver at 10/1..2.55 Lingfield to upset jolly.
    Onwards

  12. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 8 months ago

    NAP Lava Light 3/1 2.25 Lingfield
    NB Baddilini 9/2 1.55 Lingfield GL

  13. Profile photo of tipsultan
    tipsultan 8 months ago

    Lingfield

    1.25- Rigoletto – 4/1 NAP
    1.55- Shypen- 11/2
    3.25- Exchequer- 5/2 NB

  14. Profile photo of hamish75
    hamish75 8 months ago

    That wis a wee bit bitchy rale put the claws away ktf

  15. Profile photo of azzthewigan
    azzthewigan 8 months ago

    High counsel 12.45 jonagold 1.05 riddles town 1.45 cresswell legend 3.45 well done all winners yesterday

  16. Profile photo of ew thief
    ew thief 8 months ago

    Morning all well done winners yesterday
    Pharaoh jake 1.25l 20/1
    Salvatore fury 1.55l 16/1
    Assasinate 2.25l 10/1
    Corporal Maddox 3.25l 16/1
    Will add dougiecs masterpaver 2.55l 8/1
    Ew singles & ew lucky 31🍀GL all

  17. Profile photo of
    8 months ago

    L 1.55 gorokai 4/1
    L 2.25 dandy flame 15/8
    L 2.55 beardwood 9/2
    L 3.55 mr marchwood 2/1

    good luck everyone

    happy days

  18. Profile photo of quazeehorses
    quazeehorses 8 months ago

    On to better things insure 3 places 5/1 shypen 2pts 1:55 new stable new jockey Hatrick bid and beat kindly easy and he’s gone onto to win simple reasoning

  19. Profile photo of jazzerbhoy
    jazzerbhoy 8 months ago

    Strong force nap/nb 2.55 lingfield 5/4
    Melting dew 12.55 lingfield 6/1 Stoute and gibbons teamed up yesterday for 20/1 winner so will try this small wager.

  20. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 8 months ago

    Nice on jazzybhoy great pick 7/1

  21. Profile photo of dougiec
    dougiec 8 months ago

    7/1 starter for the thread,nice reasoning jazzer well posted,won well to.
    on we go.

  22. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 8 months ago

    Busstop great pick as always well done mate

  23. Profile photo of ew thief
    ew thief 8 months ago

    Well done busstop some roll

  24. Profile photo of dougiec
    dougiec 8 months ago

    Busstop purple patcheck picking and Impressive Harryjw Churchtown Camp, great posts
    Big well done to both.

  25. Profile photo of telge
    telge 8 months ago

    Harryjw well done mate

  26. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 8 months ago

    First part of the treble landed come on!

  27. Profile photo of uksevern
    uksevern 8 months ago

    yeah.. great tipping .. keep it going mate..

  28. Profile photo of uksevern
    uksevern 8 months ago

    Busstop

  29. Profile photo of uksevern
    uksevern 8 months ago

    should have said Busstop….

  30. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 8 months ago

    2/2 just the nap/NB to mess it all up 🙈

  31. Profile photo of punterpounder
    punterpounder 8 months ago

    couple of good winners being tipped in as winners allready could be a great day

  32. Profile photo of ew thief
    ew thief 8 months ago

    Well done jimron & harry 2for2 GL

  33. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 8 months ago

    Rafa you swine screwed the last still nice place Money 👍

  34. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 8 months ago

    Khismet out to 11/4 I’m going back in again on that price 👍

  35. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 8 months ago

    That’s why John b is the man 👍

  36. Profile photo of punterpounder
    punterpounder 8 months ago

    well done Jhon B came home nicely

  37. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 8 months ago

    My only worry was his boy on board and low and behold she was dreadful

  38. Profile photo of double carpet
    double carpet 8 months ago

    Great going today lads. Well done to everyone

  39. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 8 months ago

    Still nice day 2 singles at 4/1 9/4 and a 14/1 place that’ll do may delve back in later on a few of the regulars 👍

  40. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 8 months ago

    GOOJ CARD EXCHEQUER 2/1 3.25 Lingfield think Nap was well set up to lose today drifted badly and fell out the stalls onwards we go.

  41. Profile photo of recoba
    recoba 8 months ago

    Nice shooting gents. 2/4 in my Yankee was as good as it got but not at a loss and going again with…

    Jaunty Thor..3.15
    Jon Van Hoof…3.25*
    Diamond Fort…3.45
    Mr Matchwood…3.55

    An im out! 👍

  42. Profile photo of ew thief
    ew thief 8 months ago

    Nice winner John

  43. Profile photo of bertie
    bertie 8 months ago

    Great work again harryjw look forward to the write ups each day keep up the good work !

  44. Profile photo of cwhiting
    cwhiting 8 months ago

    3.15 Southwell stepover bet without favourite 11/2 NAP

  45. Profile photo of uksevern
    uksevern 8 months ago

    great tip Bozz @ 9/2

  46. Profile photo of recoba
    recoba 8 months ago

    Just missed it Boz or it been a 2/2 for me there. Sure next 3 will moonwalk over the line. 😏

  47. Profile photo of oscar2306
    oscar2306 8 months ago

    3:55
    Our little sister ew
    33/1

  48. Profile photo of jazzerbhoy
    jazzerbhoy 8 months ago

    Our little sister 3.55 40/1 too big a price I think try ew.

  49. Profile photo of nezhambo
    nezhambo 8 months ago

    Well done harryjw regarding easey winner C Champ 10 length winner No harm in letting us punters know when you are feeling extra confident I personally lumped on because you were extra confident and would not have complaibed if it had got beat many thanks Nez Hambo

    • Profile photo of harryjw
      harryjw 8 months ago

      Thank you nezhambo. I normally keep my stakes small on all my bets and sit and wait for my strong fancies- they don’t win all the time but I have a good strike rate.

      GL in the future!

  50. Profile photo of azzthewigan
    azzthewigan 8 months ago

    Well done all winners today good stuff ilsithey

  51. Profile photo of jazzerbhoy
    jazzerbhoy 8 months ago

    Well done to Harryjw nice write ups, also to all the usual suspects,and of course johnb class is permanant with your nap. Some great tips today well done all.

  52. Profile photo of mint
    mint 8 months ago

    Evening

    Well done all winners today harryjw was on yours again today😃
    Anybody have any greyhound tips/inside info would be appreciated!
    Cheers and goodluck.

    • Profile photo of harryjw
      harryjw 8 months ago

      Thank you mint. I’m afraid I don’t follow the dogs although my dad used to own a few. Sick to trap 6!

      GL

  53. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 8 months ago

    2.5pt profit Tuesday
    November 30.84pts down

    Wednesdays Tips

    Kempton
    6:40
    Sovereign Debt 3/1 NAP/NB paddy power (double stake)

  54. Profile photo of -wato-
    -wato- 8 months ago

    Plus the comment you are referring to was just ridiculous but of course I will be accused of defending him. Just don’t get anyone slagging off anyone trying to post selections trying to post winners.

  55. Profile photo of harryjw
    harryjw 8 months ago

    Evening guys,

    Thank you for all your comments it was a very profitable day for me. Also well done to all the winners jimron12, busstop, ewthief, jazzerbhoy and johnb and all the others!

    We go again tomorrrow- get studying.

    Thanks and GL all

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