I PUT up two Super Singles on Wednesday and both won as I wiped out May’s losses. First up it was Panathinaikos draw no bet away to PAOK at 13-10 – I was close to taking them to win at 11-4 – and that was followed by Carlos Bacca to score and Sevilla to win at 21-10.
Bacca hit a double but Dnipro made us sweat as they went down 3-2 in a cracking contest and to be honest I wouldn’t have been too disappointed if they’d forced extra time.
So I’m pleased to say after being more than 20pts down on the Super Single last Saturday I’ve turned it round in four days and it’s showing a tiny profit – and that’s taking 0.2pts off for the cover I did on a draw in Warsaw late on.
I was a Grodig goal away from landing the Top Treble but that remains in healthy profit.
Tonight it’s all about Rangers v Motherwell in the first leg of the Premiership play-off final. I’ll post a preview of the big game later but from earlier comments you’ll be aware I’m finding it tough to call.
Elsewhere there’s not much on the go with two vital matches in Romania and play-offs in Germany, Holland and Belgium.
Hamburg avoided the drop with a 2-0 home win against Schalke at the weekend and for the second season running face a play-off to maintain their record as the only club to have played every season in the Bundesliga since it was formed in 1963. Their opponents over two legs are Karlsruhe who finished third in Bundesliga B despite winning only five of their last 13 matches.
Last season Hamburg drew 0-0 at home to Greuther Furth and won 1-1 away in two edgy ties. They should have learned form the experience and having only lost one of their last four at home – to Wolfsburg – I can see them taking an advantage into the second leg in Karlsruhe on Monday. They are 11-10 with BetVictor and William Hill.
However, they have some injury concerns and if striker Ivica Olic doesn’t make it a better bet could be under 2.5 goals which has come up in 11 of their last 14 games and remember their home leg last season was 0-0.
Hamburg are also without midfielders Valon Behrami and Petr Jiracek and face a side who had the best defensive record in Bundesliga II with 17 clean sheets in 34 games. Like Rangers v Motherwell it should be tight and tense and I’m chancing under 2.5 goals as the Super Single. It only pays 8-11 which is smaller than usual price for the SS but I make no apologies for being a bit more cautious having just returned to profit.
Heerenveen take on Vitesse in a Europa League play-off and stats suggest both will score but it pays just 1-2 at bet365 as bookies are aware of the figures. The last 11 meetings have brought up this market and five of the last six have gone over 2.5 goals. When they met in Heerenveen in the regular season in January the home men won 4-1.
Vitesse are in good form with one defeat in 17 while Heerenveen shocked Feyenoord in the last round of play-offs and will be confident. A winner is tough to pick so both to score looks the best call.
In Romania the league title will be decided tonight. Leaders Steaua Bucharest, one point clear of Targu Mures, travel to 10th-placed CSMS Iasi while Targu are at home to relegated Otelul.
Targu have won five of their last six – only losing to Steaua – and should beat a side they’ve lost just once two in six meetings between the sides. Their goal difference is nine worse than Steaua’s so they need to win and hope the leaders lose. You’ll get no bigger than 1-6 on a Targu win but they should finish the season in style and cover the -1 handicap at 4-7 with 888sport.
Steaua are also short at 1-4 with Ladbrokes and bet365 and while the draw clinches them top spot it’s difficult to see them slipping up against a side who they’ve beaten five out of five including three out of three away without scoring. To win to nil Steaua are 5-6 at BetVictor and that’s worth a look.
I’ve noticed a friendly between Adelaide and Villarreal but while it’s listed as Thursday that’s Oz time so kick-off isn’t until Firday at 11am. Reports suggest the Spaniards are fielding a full-strength side – probably part of the terms and conditions. I’m not that keen on betting on friendlies but of they’re interested Villarreal will win and are 1-2 at Paddy Power to do so. To score 2+ they are 4-11 at Paddy Power and it’s one worth watching.
While the Top Treble figures are fine the profit’s half of what it was last week so it’s time to get back on the winning trail. I’m backing Steaua, Targu -1 and both to score at Heerenveen.
2pts Super Single
Hamburg v Karlsruhe under 2.5 goals
2.3pts Top Treble
Steaua Bucharest (6pm)
Targu -1 (6pm)
Heerenveen v Vitesse btts (7.45pm)
May Super Single record
33 bets (13 winners, 20 losers)
May Top Treble record
23 bets (8 winners, 15 losers)
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