IT felt like a winning day but on the top tips it wasn’t. Rosenborg beat the Top Treble after leading 2-0 while Barcelona blew a 2-1 lead in Munich to confine my Barca draw no bet effort in the bin.
There was a lot of debate on the site about what’s better – WDW or goals bets. I’ll always do both but there’s no doubt if properly researched goals punts will provide a better return.
An example of that was raaljaca’s over 2.5 and over 3.5 goals tips on the Turkish league match between Kasimpasa v Balikesirspor.
His tips are always worth a look and when I checked the stats both looked a no brainer and I also suggested backing over 4.5 goals at 9-4 with Betfred which came in. Kasimpasa was raaljaca’s shout but I hope by putting up the stunning stats plenty added it to their lines.
The game covered my losses and I also flagged up a goal in the first 15 minutes in Munich at 9-4.
I’ve said before the site’s not all about me especially when I’m working as a full-time journalist and not a full-time tipster. It’s about the contributions from too many people to mention and beating the bookies is a team effort.
Harpreet’s btts tip came up again – and love him or hate him his strike rate is decent – and I crave some of his good fortune. While his prediction won with an injury-time goal I watched Neymar mess up golden chance in the dying seconds that would have saved my Super Single – but that’s football for you.
Tonight we have the second Champions League semi-final between Real Madrid and Juventus and I’ve posted a separate preview where I explain why I’m on the Spaniards to qualify.
There are two play-off first-leg finals in Scotland and the matches between Forfar and Alloa and Queen’s Park and Stenhousemuir look tough to call. There is more chance of goals in the first one and Forfar could nick it while the Hampden affair could be a draw.
Elsewhere there are plenty of Turkish and Scandinavian games to look at and having done some research I’ve picked out WDW selections and goals tips on the one treble.
For the Top Treble I’m starting with Start – and I’ve always wanted to write that. The mid-table Norwegians tackle basement boys Bodo Glimt and have won their last six at home to their opponents including 6-0 and 4-0 romps. Bodo have picked up just one point from seven games this season so Start look value at just under evens.
Stay in Norway and added Molde at strugglers Lillestrom. Molde have won six out of seven games in all competitions and will be looking to take advantage of Rosenborg’s surprise defeat yesterday. Lillestrom have scored only eight goals this season otherwise the stats would suggest both to score with eight of the last meetings between the teams going that way and six of Molde’s last seven going over 2.5 goals.
Complete the treble with Fenerbahce and over 2.5 match goals at home to bottom-of-the-table Kayseri. Fenerbahce are no bigger than 1-8 to win as they try to close the gap on leaders Galatasaray to one point so other markets have to be looked at.
They have won seven of their last eight and six of those victories have saw both sides score and go over 2.5 – so it’s another stats-based call.
Other games I’ve looked at where goals look likely are Odd v Stromsgodset (btts in 6 of 7 meetings) and Haka v PK-35 (away side’s 6 of 7 have gone over 2.5 goals).
Norwegian games in particular look good for goals but if there were any to avoid it would be Stabaek v Sandefjord and Haugesund v Viking – unless it reall is Norway Day!
Picking a Super Single wasn’t easy but as I’m strongly tipping Real Madrid to qualify against Juve I’m putting it up as my main bet.
4pts Super Single
Real Madrid to qualify (7.45pm)
2pts Top Treble
Fenerbahce and over 2.5 match goals (5.45pm)
May Super Single record
12 bets (4 winners, 8 losers)
May Top Treble record
11 bets (6 winners, 5 losers)
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