ANYONE fed up with the Euro 2016 qualifiers yet? There are another nine on Sunday and I’ve posted a separate preview of the big one – Scotland v Gibraltar.
After a fab Friday when I put up a full house of winning tips it was a bit of a Saturday struggle but I was delighted with another Super Single winner that brings the feature bet into profit for the month.
Twice in March I’ve been 16 points down and twice I’ve made it up – most recently with three successive winners. I put just 2pts on East Stirling at 23-10 to beat Arbroath and a tiny profit overall is better than any loss.
The least said about the rest of the tips the better – although I managed a 17-1 aways treble thanks to Wycombe, Morton and Stranraer – but that’s what happens when favourites such as Bristol City, Sheffield Utd, Albion Rovers and even the Czech Republic and Holland don’t win.
We all tend to go for sides expected to win and when they do – like Friday – bookies are taken to the cleaners. It was nice of them to price East Stirling wrongly and the secret to happy punting is spotting those errors.
Another mistake could be with Northern Ireland’s price at home to Finland on Sunday night. The Irish have started their campaign strongly with three wins in four games and like Wales have a chance to compete in a major finals for the first time since 19 canteen.
Boss Michael O’Neill, who was once lucky enough to wear the colours of Clydebank, has put together a hard-working squad that also boasts a star in the shape of Steven Davis and strikers such as Niall McGinn and Kyle Lafferty who are capable of grabbing a goal.
Forget Ireland’s display against the Scots last week. That was a friendly in the true sense and the Irish rested most of their first-choice players and only conceded after subbing Jonny Evans.
Northern Ireland are a best 9-5 with bet365 and have a great chance of beating a fairly ordinary Finland side who were held 0-0 by Yemen in their latest outing. That price is decent but I’m protecting the meagre Super Single profit by going with the Irish draw no bet at 17-20 with BetVictor.
Elsewhere in Group F Hungary are 17-10 with Betfred and BetVictor to see off a woefully out of form Greece. We know the Greeks don’t score many but they’ve started to concede too – seven in losing four of their last five matches. In that time they’ve only scored in a 1-1 draw in Finland. The game screams unders but Hungary could be worth a small risk to win.
Romania entertain the Faroes in the third Group F encounter and it might not be the goalfest many will expect. Romania’s last six have gone under 2.5 goals and the Faroes’ last three have gone the same way including a 1-0 victory in Greece and 2-0 loss in Belfast. Under 2.5 goals pays 5-4 at Coral and BetVictor while Romania are no bigger than 2-13 at Betfred to notch a victory.
There are three vital games in Group B and while it’s tough to find value on Scotland-Gibraltar I expect us to win by at least four so look at Scotland -3 at 2-5 with boylesports.
Germany need a win in Georgia and should get it. Joachim Low played the bulk of his second string in the 2-2 draw at home to Australia in midweek but the big guns will be back for a qualifier they’ll be looking to win well. Take the Germans minus one at 4-9 with bet365 and Ladbrokes. Complete the top treble with Hungary not to lose at home to Greece at a best 2-5 with bet365.
The third Group B game sees Republic of Ireland entertain Poland and while it looks a draw I’m chancing both to score at 23-20 with William Hill and that’s the goals single. Poland have netted 15 in their four group games while the only Irish blank in six outings came at Hampden.
Portugal-Serbia could be another stalemate while Albania look good enough to beat Armenia at home and are 20-21 at boylesports.
5pts Super Single
Northern Ireland draw no bet (5pm)
(17-20, BetVictor, Paddy Power)
2pts Goals Single
Rep Ireland v Poland btts (7.45pm)
(23-20, William Hill)
3pts Top Treble
Germany -1 (5pm)
Scotland -3 (5pm)
Hungary not to lose (7.45pm)
(13-8, bet365, Betfred)
Super Single March record
31 bets (12 winners, 17 losers, 2 void)
Goals March record
20 bets (9 winners, 11 losers)
Remember to check out the guys from We Love Betting for more tips and video chat.