I HAD a great day on the League Cup Final and a decent one with the top tips.
Celtic were my big fancy for the Hampden showdown with Dundee United and I also tipped Kris Commons at 9-2 to score first and a red card in the match at 9-4. For those who read my Daily Record column on Saturday the Bonkers Bet was 2-0 Celtic at 11-1 so I was delighted when James Forrest missed his late penalty.
My day started unluckily with the goals single. I went for over 3.5 at PSV but it finished 2-1 after the home side missed a penalty.
Then came the Top Treble. My first two picks – Wolfsburg and Sevilla – both won 3-0 and Real Madrid beat Levante 2-0 to bring up the Top Treble although it should have been even more comfortable. Some comments suggested I tipped Real -2 but the listed Top Treble clearly stated Real -1 and at no point did it say anything different although the price should have been 11-10 (2.1) and not 21-10. Admin say the copy had -2 and that typo was corrected by them.
For the Super Single I split stakes between Lyon win at Marseille and Lyon double chance and with it ending a draw I won 0.4 points.
Tonight the Premier League game is Swansea v Liverpool while Reading tackle Bradford in their FA Cup quarter-final replay. There are three games in Serie A – Fiorentina v AC Milan, Torino v Lazio and Roma v Sampdoria – while Davie Moyes’s Real Sociedad travel to Getafe in La Liga.
For fans of the Dutch Jupiler League there is a full card – although I noticed Friday’s games didn’t produce as many goals as usual. Seven games went under 2.5 goals which is not the norm for a league where all but one team (VVV) average more than 2.5 goals a game this season.
I studied the stats last night and put up a table showing each team’s goals average. Emmen’s matches have totalled 115 goals with 66 coming in 15 home matches – that’s over four a game. Based on stats I’m taking Emmen v Eindhoven over 3.5 goals as the goals single.
I also noticed there aren’t many draws (around 20 per cent) and that most short-priced home sides win. Runaway leaders NEC, 18 points clear at the top, have actually won 14 out of 14 on home soil so let’s take them against Volendam with Top OSS, who have won four of their last five and entertain bottom-of-the-table RKC.
Swansea will be happy with where they are in the league but a mid-table position leaves them with nothing to play for – even fighting relegation can be exciting. Liverpool have a top-four place to aim at as well as a FA Cup semi-final spot and I expect them to leave Wales with three points.
They are a best 21-20 with the likes of bet365, BetVictor and William Hill. Daniel Sturridge has netted four goals in three games against the Swans and is 7-4 at BetBright to net at any time.
For the Super Single I toyed with Liverpool but after much thought I’m doing a similar bet to Sunday and going for half stakes on Bradford and half stakes on Bradford not to lose.
Bradford were will tipped to beat Championship Reading in the original tie but a poor pitch seemed to affect both sides and it was a poor game of few chances. Reading, who played for a 0-0 and got it, are now favourites at 10-11 with bet365, Hills and others but I’m not sure they’ll live up to the billing having lost three of their last four matches at home.
City of course won at Chelsea and have played well on their travels all season. Their form remains solid and as it’s a tie I believe could go either way I’m looking at Bradford draw no bet at 21-10 with Ladbrokes. To win Bradford are as big as 7-2 with Betfred and BetVictor.
Milan haven’t won any of their last six games but haven’t lost on their last six trips to Fiorentina. So do you go with form or stats? I’d go with form and take Fiorentina to edge this at a best 19-20 with William Hill with Milan without an away success since October.
Roma will start favourites at 20-21 with Betfred to beat Sampdoria but a record of eight wins in nine games that has allowed Juventus to open up an a11-point lead at the top of Serie A is worrying. The Romans are 4-6 with William Hill and Betfred but I’m not sure about this one.
Lazio are in fine form having won four in a row and head to a Torino side who could be jaded after a Europa League trip to Zenit where they went down 2-0. The Romans had a free week and while they lost on their last two visits to face the Turin side they can edge this one with Torino again in European action on Thursday.
Lazio are a best 6-4 with the likes of BetVictor and what about veteran striker Mario Klose to score. He has netted three in his last two games and is 19-10 at 888sport. Either of those were Super Single possibilities.
Getafe-Sociedad is a tough call. Sociedad remain without away win and have collected just six points on the road all season but hit home form has kept them out of relegation trouble.
Their last three at home have resulted in 2-1 wins for Getafe while Real have drawn three of their last five on a road. A draw looks possible and I like the look of both to score at 11-10 with Betfred.
I’m reluctant to do too many bets on a fairly quiet Monday but as I’ve tipped Lazio and Liverpool I’m putting them on a 1pt treble with Fiorentina. That leaves 1.75pts for the Daily Double.
2pts Bradford (7.45pm)
(4-1, BetVictor, Betfred)
3pts Bradford not to lose
2.25pts Goals Single
Emmen v Eindhoven over 3.5 goals (7pm)
(6-4, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes)
1.75pts Dutch Daily Double
Top Oss (7pm)
NEC Nijmegen (7pm)
1pt Top Treble
Super Single March record
15 bets (5 winners, 8 losers, 2 void)
March goals record
13 bets (6 winners, 7 losers)
BetVictor offer Liverpool at 9-2 to win tonight. Check terms and conditions.
Remember to check out the guys from We Love Betting for more tips and video chat.