MARCH has been a good month for the Top Treble but not for the Super Single – and that trend continued on Saturday.
Bournemouth -1, Hearts -1 and Watford brought off a 7-2 Top Treble with ease but while Ross County fought back from 2-0 down they just failed to land the Super Single as they were held 2-2 at Hamilton. This was an 11-5 pick so it always going to be risky.
Dortmund beat the Euro treble while we were a Dunfermline goal short of landing a 12-1 homes five-timer.
It’s a busy Sunday with Dundee United v Celtic in the League Cup Final and I’ve posted a separate preview. There are three games in the Premier League with Chelsea looking to extend their lead at the top by sinking Southampton.
Everton tackle Newcastle and Man United v Spurs could be a cracker. United looked OK against Arsenal in the FA Cup on Monday but were still beaten at home and Spurs will fancy their chances at Old Trafford.
All over the continent there are big games and I’m starting my tips with a goals single. This pick is based on stats and form with the last six meetings between PSV and Groningen – 4-2, 3-1, 1-1, 6-1, 5-2 and 2-3.
That’s an average of more than five a game so I’m taking a chance on over 3.5 match goals at 1-1 – over 2.5 is too short at around a best 2-5 with Ladbrokes.
Five out of the last six of PSV’s games have gone over 2.5 while three of Groningen’s last six have gone over 3.5 goals.
For the Super Single my first thought was PSG at Bordeaux but from evens they’re now a best 4-5 and maybe it’s too short for a trip to Bordeaux. PSG of course impressed everyone with their display at Chelsea in midweek and a repeat of that performance will bring them the points.
They could be jaded though – all except Zlatan Ibrahimovic – after a gruelling 120 minutes and have won just two of their last six visits to the wine growers so cation is advised. Ibra, sent off early at Stamford Bridge, is 4-1 at BetVictor and Betfred to break the deadlock.
I need a good Super Single winner to get back on track so I’m having a go at Lyon who remain one point clear of PSG at the top and have Alexandre Lacazette fit again and among the goals. Lyon face a tricky trip to Marseille who had been struggling until a 6-1 win at Toulouse last time out.
Before that they crashed 3-2 at home to Caen and were held to three successive draws. Lyon won 5-1 at Montpellier last time out and are good enough to win – but I’m splitting the Super Single with half stakes on Lyon not to lose. Lacazette is 5-1 at Paddy Power and BetVictor to score first.
With the Top Treble I’m not taking too many chances and going for old favourites Wolfsburg and Sevilla as well as Real Madrid -1 at home to Levante.
Wolfsburg were their usual goal-hungry selves against Inter Milan in the Europa League last week and should ease to victory against second-bottom Freiburg.
Sevilla were imperious at Villarreal in the Europa League and I can’t see them slipping up at home to Elche who have netted just 11 goals on the road. Europa League holders Sevilla remain unbeaten at home and have won five of their last seven in all competitions.
Real Madrid failed to net at Athletic Bilbao last week in the league and then were involved in a remarkable 4-3 defeat at home to Schalke in the Champions League. Carlo Ancelotti’s side squeezed through 5-4 on aggregate but the white handkerchiefs were waving at the end as the pressure piled on the Italian boss.
Real need a lift and possibly the perfect opponents for them tonight are Levante. They have netted 22 goals in their last five at home to Levante including 8-0 and 5-1 successes. They also won 5-0 at Levante earlier in the season so you have to expect another big win – and hopefully by the end of 90 minutes it will be Levante fans waving white flags instead of home supporters with their hankies.
I’ve not said too much about the English games but I expect Everton to beat Newcastle and Chelsea should bounce back from their PSG horror show by seeing off Southampton. Man Utd-Spurs is a tough call but I don’t expect Spurs to lose.
Good luck if you’re having a bet. I’ll add a both to score line later if there are games I like but for now it’s off to Mother’s Day lunch before watching the Cup Final.
3pts Lyon not to lose (8pm)
(4-5, bet365, Betfred)
2pts Lyon win (8pm)
(11-4, William Hill)
3pts Goals Single
PSV v Groningen over 3.5 goals (1.30pm)
(1-1, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)
2pts Top Treble
Real Madrid -1 (8pm)
Super Single March record
13 bets (4 winners, 8 losers, 1 void)
March goals record
12 bets (6 winners, 6 losers)
Remember to check out the guys from We Love Betting for more tips and video chat.
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