THE panic’s over – for now! Four Super Single winners in a row have wiped out early June losses and I’m back in profit.
I wasn’t really worried – although plenty were going by some comments – because I know how easy it is to turn things around but it’s nice to be back in black.
After Shamrock Rovers and America Women -1 gave me two successes on Monday and early Tuesday mormning I came up trumps with two both to score singles – St Pat’s v Bohemians at 5-4 and Bologna v Pescara at evens. Three Super Single winners in one day – I think that’s a first.
Now I need to turn my attention to the Daily Double/Top Treble which is 10pts down after England women failed to net against France in a 1-0 defeat.
Wednesday’s another quiet night with a couple of international friendlies – Germany v USA and Switzerland v Liechtenstein – and it’s obvious both to score and overs will be popular in the match in Cologne.
USA have netted in all of their 11 matches since the World Cup and stunned Holland with 4-3 win last week. Per Mertesacker and Philipp Lahm have retired and since then the Germans have conceded four to Argentina, two to Poland in a Euro qualifier and even two in a 2-2 friendly draw with Australia.
Bookies know the score though so btts pays no bigger than 1-2 while over 2.5 goals is just 4-6 at bet365 and Ladbrokes. Either could be on a double or treble and another point to note is German keeper Manuel Neuer being injured.
There are two lower-league games in Sweden and a couple of Spanish play-offs and that’s about it. In Sweden stats suggest both to score and possibly overs at Degerfors v AFC United. Both have netted in the last five meetings between the sides with four going over 2.5 goals and both have hit the target in AFC’s last seven.
Both to score pays 4-6 at bet365 and Ladbrokes and over 2.5 goals is priced much better at 4-5 with Ladbrokes. Another stat that stands out is the fact AFC have drawn 1-1 in five of their last 11 matches and another pays 6-1 at Paddy Power and bet365.
The other Superettan clash sees GAIS welcome Utsikten and there is little to go on here. GAIS won 3-0 away in the only meeting of the sides and have gone down just once at home in seven meetings so justify their billing as 5-6 favourites with BetVictor.
Las Palmas entertain Valladolid in the first leg of a semi-final play-off and they had the better of the meetings in the regular season, drawing 1-1 at home and winning 2-1 away. It could be tight again.
In a Segunda B second-leg play-off Gimnastic travel to Real Oviedo leading 2-1 from the first leg and there could be goals again. Seven out of eight of Gimnastic’s matches have seen both score and it’s the same record when watching Oviedo.
I’ve started studying Copa America but you could do worse than check out the excellent previews on all three groups and team-by-team guide on We Love Betting, with guest input from Tim Vickery.
We Love Betting’s Mark O’Haire has done a fine job and I don’t have the time to match his efforts.
Having looked at tonight’s games I’m doing a form and stats-based goals treble for low stakes. If you don’t fancy the btts treble try singles or doubles with Oviedo the one I’d doubt most.
For the Super Single I’m putting 8pts – the remainder of my daily allowance – on Brazil against Honduras in their final warm-up before Copa America. Brazil won’t bust a gut ahead of Sunday’s Copa America opener but Dunga will want to maintain his 100 per cent record since taking over after the World Cup shambles.
He has won nine friendlies out of nine – keeping seven clean sheets – and wants to go into the tournament with a perfect 10. Neymar could get a runout after joining the squad following Barcelona’s World Cup triumph but Luis Gustavo and Oscar have been ruled out of the tournament in Chile so Dunga has some changes to consider.
Honduras are unlikely to trouble the Brazilians too much and I’m fully confident of a home win in Porto Alegre which is of course a short price at around 1-6.
It has the feel of a 2-0 or 3-0 Brazilian win so let’s go 4pts on Brazil to win to nil and 4pts on Brazil -2 Asian Handicap. If Neymar starts he’s worth backing at 13-5 with William Hill to score first.
4pts Brazil to win to nil (2am)
(8-11, BetVictor, Paddy Power)
4pts Brazil -2 AH
2pts Top Treble
Germany v USA btts (7.45pm)
Oviedo v Gimnastic btts (7.30pm)
Degerfors v AFC United btts (6pm)
June Super Single record
12 bets (6 winners, 6 losers)
June Daily Double/Top Treble record
6 bets (1 winner, 5 losers)
Remember to check out our friends at We Love Betting for more video tips and chat.
And don’t miss their excellent guide to Copa America with contributions from Tim Vickery.
Meanwhile, Raaljaca’s goals thread started recently and he’s asking for donations to two cancer charities. In June we’re supporting another cause in the shape of Projects Abroad who send volunteers to work in poor countries all over the world.
My student daughter is raising money for a trip to a Romanian orphanage and this month all Buy a Beer donations (£3 minimum) will be passed on to Projects Abroad so click the button if you want to help.