July 3: Jordan’s Sports Tips & Chat

Jordans_SportsTips

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CRACK out the Pimm’s and pull up a chair – Wimbledon is upon us once again and it rarely disappoints.

Defending champ Andy Murray opens the fortnight’s festival of tennis with a Court Centre meeting with Kazakhstan’s Alexander Bublik today.

We have extensive previews plus tips on the site from Unibet‘s tennis expert Sean Calvert and our own Johnb and they are well worth checking out here and here.

Sean also also picked out tips from a couple of today’s matches and feel free to add any of your own from Wimbledon and any other sport.

Daniil Medvedev vs Stanislas Wawrinka

Sean says: “Medvedev has the third best grass court hold/break stats at main level over the past year (or 10 matches, whichever is the greater) of any player in this quarter of the draw and better than today’s opponent Wawrinka.

Stan has been unlucky with his grass court draws this swing, with Feli Lopez first up at Queen’s Club and now Medvedev, and the one thing that will probably save him here is that this match is scheduled for prime time on Centre Court.

Medvedev has only played here as a junior so far and I doubt he’s been anywhere near Centre Court, so it’s bound to be a daunting proposition for the Russian, who said of his first match on Centre at Queen’s Club:

“Of course I was nervous. I am nervous almost before every match I play. And especially when you go on the Queen’s Club centre court for the first time. You are a bit tight. But I managed to come through it and I played some really good tennis.”

Let’s multiply those nerves a few times and see what we get, but Wawrinka will be nervy too, having produced little of note at Wimbledon in the decade or so that he’s been coming here.

The Swiss is lacking grass matches, having played just four in two years, and he lost three of those four, with the one success being a tight four setter over Taylor Fritz in round one of Wimbledon.

If Medvedev is able to deal with the nerves it’s not out of the question he could win this, but over 38.5 games looks the sensible wager here at 1.8.”

Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Marin Cilic

Sean says: According to the layers, Cilic has suddenly assumed some kind of god-like status on grass, despite the fact that he’s never won a grass court title (other than when David Nalbandian defaulted one to him) and his price of 1.18 today is a bit of a joke versus an opponent who’s beaten the Croat on six occasions.

There’s no denying that Cilic’s hold/break stats on grass are superb, but he was a 1.60 chance the last time that he met Kohlschreiber (in Rotterdam last season on indoor hard) and the German won that one too.

We have to take Cilic’s hold/break stats in context a little bit, as there’s a big gap between his numbers at Wimbledon and on grass as a whole, with a total of 105.5 at SW19 compared to 115.4 in all tournaments.

At Wimbledon Cilic rarely does things the easy way, with only five straight sets wins in his last 14 completed matches – and three of those came against opponents ranked from 123 to 589 in the world.

Kohlschreiber hasn’t had the best of luck at Wimbledon since making the quarter finals in 2012, with a retirement, a round one draw against Novak Djokovic, a five set defeat and a poor one last year versus Herbert.

He’s more than capable on this medium paced grass though and his career record against Cilic of six wins in nine matches, although many were years ago, should fill him with a commodity he often lacks – belief.

Cilic will probably win this, but Kohlschreiber +2.5 sets at 1.72 looks much more appealing than 1.18 on Cilic.

With 32 matches on the card there are a few others that I’m tempted by, with Sergiy Stakhovsky looking to have a better than even money shot of beating Julien Benneteau.

Stakho loves it here and has very good grass hold/break stats over his last 10 matches at main level, with a 102.9 total, which compares favourably with Benny’s 97.7 mark.

The Ukrainian won three of their four prior career clashes and he also plays few tie breaks at main level on grass with three in his last 26 completed sets. The 3.25 about no tie breaks is also of interest here.

Over the last three years of men’s singles matches at Wimbledon there have been an average of 48% of matches in round one that went to tie breaks and the numbers have been declining.

There were 35 in 2014, 29 in 2015 and 27 in 2016, so unless we’ve got players with high tie breaks per set ratios on grass odds-against about no tie breaks – and big odds against like 3.25 – look excellent value in matches like the Stakho one.

Sean Calvert’s Wimbledon Day One Tips

  • 1.5 points over 38.5 games in Wawrinka/Medvedev at 4-5 at Unibet
  • 1.5 points Kohlschreiber +2.5 sets to beat Cilic at 8-11 at Unibet
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4 Comments
  1. Profile photo of baggio
    baggio 5 months ago

    Cricket Roundup

    Aus v Nz over 420.5 runs ✔
    England ML ✔
    India ML ✔

    1.96 @ bet365

    👑WINNER👑

    July: 4-1

    India looked doubtful but then bowled out Pakistan very cheaply.

  2. Profile photo of punterpounder
    punterpounder 5 months ago

    day 1 4 fold

    Murray 3-0

    Kvitova 3-0

    kryigos

    konta

    £10 returns £21.70 @boylesports

  3. Profile photo of hunter
    hunter 5 months ago

    Murray V. Bublik (13:00GMT)

    Total Games: Under (29.5) @ 9/10, BetStars – 1.5pts staked.

    Robson V. Haddad Maia (11:30GMT)

    Match Winner: Robson @ 9/5, Betfair – 1pt staked.

    Shapovolov V. Janowicz (11:30GMT)

    Total 1st set games: Over (10.5) @ 11/10, Bet365 – 1pt staked.

    Tsonga V. Norrie (11:30GMT)

    Total Games: Under (30.5) @ 5/6, Boyle Sports – 1.5pts staked.

    Good luck!

  4. Profile photo of hunter
    hunter 5 months ago

    Wimbledon Treble

    Konta
    Ostapenko
    Haas

    Treble @ 11/10, Coral – 3pts staked

    Good luck!

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