SPURS tripped up the Super Single just when they looked like they were going to roll over Sheffield United.
The Premier League side were well on top at 1-0 but couldn’t get that crucial second and full credit to the Blades for a storming fightback that forced the Londoners to dig deep for an equaliser that prevented the League Cup semi-final going to extra time.
Spurs were the only tip I put up on Wednesday and it’s another quiet night on Thursday so I’ll have a hunt around for team news in the morning before deciding what to do.
Bristol City take a 4-2 lead over Gillingham into the second leg of the Southern Final of the JP Trophy and in Spain there are three Copa del Rey ties – Getafe v Villarreal, Athletic Bilbao v Malaga and Sevilla v Espanyol. There are also cup games in Greece and Turkey and have a look at them while watching Andy Murray demolish Tomas Berdych in the Australian Open semi-final.
The Bank Builder v Long Shot experiment is in to day 4 and selections have now been posted.
Bristol City have beaten Gillingham three times this season with both scoring in each game and in fact the last five meetings have gone over 2.5 goals. Gillingham’s last nine matches in all competitions have gone over 2.5 – most of them over 3.5 – and there should be goals at Ashton Gate as long as the away side don’t believe the tie is over.
There is no doubt City are the better side – 23 points separate the sides in League One – and they are desperate to go to Wembley. They could shut up shop as Walsall did to progress from the Northern Final but that’s not their way and with a two-goal advantage I can see them going for the jugular.
That should mean more goals and for the Super Single I’m taking a huge chance on City and both teams to score at 5-2 with Ladbrokes. The one stat going against that is three successive clean sheets for City before losing 1-0 to West Ham in the FA Cup.
But the stats suggest that 5-2 has a chance with the Gills netting in their last five against City – a total of seven goals. Due to the nature of this bet – which in my eyes is a treble and not a single – it should be backed for one or two points maximum.
Over 2.5 goals in the game should come up but pays no more than 4-6 at Stan James while over 3.5 goals is more risky at 13-8 with Betway.
Long-shot Lee has included City’s Matt Smith to score first (4-1, Betfred) and that could be a decent shout. He netted a hat-trick in the first leg and has agreed a month’s extension on loan from Fulham.
Smith has banged in six goals against the Gills this season and in a way this is his big final because he won’t be with City if they reach the Wembley showdown. To net at any time Smith is 23-20 at Coral and was close to being the Super Single.
Fellow forward Kieran Agard made a return from injury as a substitute against West Ham on Sunday but is likely to start on the bench again. Aaron Wilbraham (hip) is edging closer to a return having been sidelined since December but won’t be involved here so Smith will be the main man.
Having looked at the Spanish games the best bets should be Sevilla at home to Espanyol as they try to recover from 3-1 down. Sevilla’s last three at home to their rivals have been 4-1, 3-0 and 3-1 so I don’t see them giving up this tie – and the sides meet again in the league at the same ground on Sunday.
Espanyol have won four in a row so will be confident but I’m on Sevilla at 4-7 at bet365 and Paddy Power and I’m slightly tempted by Sevilla to qualify at 7-4 with bet365 and William Hill.
Athletic Bilbao and Malaga have fought out back-to-back draws in the cup and league so it might be tough to split them tonight. Bilbao. Neither side are in good form so I’m leaving this one alone.
Villarreal take a 1-0 lead to Getafe and are no bigger than 1-9 with Ladbrokes to go through. Villarreal are in fine form and I can see them extending their lead but they’re odds on with 888sport going a best 11-13.
After much thought I’m going with a Daily Double on Panathinaikos at home to Xanthi in the Greek Cup and Sevilla – and I apologise to Lee for including tow parts of his treble but there’s not a lot else on. Anyone who doesn’t fancy the Super Single could do the double and add over 2.5 goals at Ashton Gate as an alternative.
2pts Super Single
Bristol City and both to score (7.45pm)
Super Single 2015 record: 27 bets
(10 winners, 14 losers, 3 void)
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