JAN 26: BANK BUILDER v LONG SHOT TRIAL

genericfootball

TODAY I’m launching a bank builder v long shot trial and one of the main reasons is because of the variety of punters coming to this site.

I’ve said before it’s difficult for me to keep everyone happy. I’m reluctant to put up too many tips – and sometimes I believe I do – but there’s so much football to bet on and with hundreds of thousands of visits to the site on Saturdays and Sundays it’s impossible to put up lines for all.

As regulars will know I believe the best policy is to go for singles, doubles and trebles but I appreciate that doesn’t suit some punters who play for low stakes and for fun.

I will continue to put up bets such as the Super Single, Daily Double and Top Treble because for me the odds always reflect your chances of winning. An even-money Super Single for example has a 50-50 chance of coming while you will land a 10-1 shot one attempt in 11 theoretically.

At the weekend I bumped into a punter in the bookies with whom I’ve had some dealings with the past – for the purpose off this experiment let’s call him Lee.

He always claimed to be a big hitter placing large stakes on short odds but told me he’d now completely changed tact and only placed bets of £40-£50 on “long shots”. A long shot being an accumulator paying at least 10-1 but preferably nearer 20-1.

Lee (not his real name of course) insisted he was £2500 up since adopting this policy in November. I rubbished his tactics and challenged him to prove he could succeed and so we came up with the Bank Builder v Long Shot Experiment.

I hope to prove backing a team or teams at short prices and building your betting pot slowly is better than taking massive risks. Every day I’ll put up an odds-on bank builder and Lee will give me his long shot line.

I’ll give brief reasoning for mine but there will be none for his because I’m not advising you follow him. He’ll be backing his selections but they are not tips I recommend backing due to the prices – and remember this is just an experiment. How long it will last I don’t know – but we’re both starting with 20pts (for me that’s £200).

I will risk no more than 10pts a day and he plans to put on between 0.5pts and 2pts – and I expect him to run dry before me although I truly hope he proves me wrong.

This thread can also be the place for anyone to post their own challenges which are becoming invreasingly popular.

Tomorrow I’ll be giving away £20 of betting vouchers (UK only) to one person who can predict a winner bigger than Lee’s so look out for that.

Here are the day one bets – and mine is a safer version of the Super Single. Starting bank 20pts.

Mr Fixit’s Bank Builder

Napoli draw no bet (8pm)
Benfica draw no bet (8pm)
7pts at 1-3 (bet365)

Lee’s Long Shot

Empoli (6pm)
Napoli to score 3+
Benfica to score both halves
1pt at 10.3-1 (Skybet)

And for anyone who heard about the punter who was waiting on a Bolton win and btts at Liverpool on Saturday night for a £1m win on Betfair here’s the £10 line that nearly made him a legend. He was offered £15k cashout but didn’t take it and in the end Betfair kindly gave him four £1000 free bets and trip to the FA Cup Final.

£10 to £1m Challenge

Manchester City v Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough win 1k2-1

Cardiff v Reading
Reading win and btts 4-1

Spurs v Leicester
Leicester win and btts 11-2

Southampton v Crystal Palace
Palace win and btts 11-1

Liverpool v Bolton
Bolton win and btts 20-1

118 Comments
  1. PABLO power 2 years ago

    Empoli vs Udinese
    Udinese-win

    PSV youth vs Twente youth
    Twente – win

    Double pays 16.33/1 @ Ladbrokes

  2. best bettor evah! 2 years ago

    i like the idea..i also like BET LEE’S bet , especially the bottom 2 choices i may use his selections on perm 2 out of 3 system.

  3. better 2 years ago

    On it..ready steady go!

  4. 7sfcmatty7 2 years ago

    Handicap treble
    Stoke-1
    Napoli – 1
    Benfica – 1

    Treble 10.81/1
    William hill

  5. Jack 2 years ago

    I love this idea. I’m unsure of where I lie on this tactic though. Before I found this site I made a lot of money through long shots. (landed a 90-1 and a 40-1 shot in the same weekend-mainly through luck) however I got greedy and lost most of it.

    I think I do consistently better since this site taught me about bank building. But this is cool because the long shot adds a more ‘exciting’ element.

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 2 years ago

      Jack, the long shot betting is OK if it’s done for small stakes and no great expectation. Now and again everyone will hit a cracker.

  6. Kieran 2 years ago

    Sraight Win Treble

    Empoli
    Getafe
    Cape Verde Islands

    15.25/1 BET365

  7. Dazzler 2 years ago

    Free £5 bet from skybet so it’s going on

    Phil Bardsley & Ryan Shawcross both to be carded @ 16/1.

  8. ross mcnicol 2 years ago

    mr fix why were you in the bookies surely you do all your gambling on line???

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 2 years ago

      ross, you’re new so I’ll answer you. Main reason I go to the bookies is to walk the dug and get chippy tips (that’s for another day) – it’s about a 70-minute round trip for me. I’ve said before I’ll do loose change bets but no singles etc because prices are usually shorter. I quite like spending time in my local shop and chatting to the regulars anyway – watching the footie or Sky Sports News, grabbing a coffee, reading the Racing Post, looking over coupons, checking prices on the football terminal which some shops have, etc. And the dug’s always made welcome.
      All that’s missing is a bar and better odds. Now and again you’ll get a decent price and Ladbrokes have addressed it a bit with their top teams top prices coupon.
      I’d advise anyone to support their local shop but compare prices to online ones and stay away from the FOBS – even if they offer you a free go.

  9. AnOnYmoUS 2 years ago

    Absolutely cracking idea Mr F as you say the ss is the way to go for long term profits albeit that can be a slow process for some, but I believe most punters see gambling as a way to get a big lift from the bets they do you only need to see the amount of daft bets the bookies promote in there coupons and punters flock to these bets at the weekends especially in shop.

    And the reason is the above comment a big lift for relative smallish stakes.

    So this I believe is most welcome for the majority of punters out there well done for addressing this as it will be good to see how this progresses.

  10. leecunliffe 2 years ago

    Great idea guys I do both types of bets will always have a safe treble or 2 on a weekend plus a couple of long shots and bts, most days I’ll have a correct score trixie which are very difficult to get up but got one up last season for £500 so that pretty much covered my trixie stakes.

    Tonights trixie which is researched in as much as any game can be when trying to predict a correct score is

    Napoli 2-1 genoa
    Getafe 1-1 celta vigo
    Pacos 0-2 benfica

    Returns £450

  11. Rob 'Sooty' Sutton 2 years ago

    Nice work Mr f I like it. I’ll be starting my own challenge today then. I’ll be going with low stakes and placing either one/two or three doubles depending on the fixture’s of course.

    Starting pot will be 200pts, I will spread %10 of my pot no matter what its balance is.

    Bank builder doubles:

    Double 1

    Genclerbiligi v besiktas, under 1.5 fhgs
    Paco’s ferreira v benfica, over 0.5 fhgs

    6.66pts returns 12.68pts

    Double 2

    Getafe v celta Vigo, under 1.5 fhgs
    Angers v Brest, under 1.5 fhgs

    6.67pts returns 10.67pts

    Double 3

    Panetolikos v atromitos, under 1.5 fhgs
    Napoli v Genoa, over 0.5 fhgs

    6.67pts returns 10.23pts

    All of the above happen to be under/over fhgs, this is just a coincidence. I’ll also be looking at over/under mgs, btts yes/no. Not a big fan of the straight win market but there may be the odd one or two that stand out so every now and again ill probably throw one in.

    All the best!

  12. kel meyler 2 years ago

    Hello mrfxit,you have a good site and I really enjoy logging on.HANVING FOLLOWED FOOTBALL AND BET ON THE FIXED ODDS FOR YEARS AND STILL A POOR MAN I DO AgrEE IT BETTER TO JUST DOUBLE YOUR MONEY EACH TIME RATHER THAN GO FOR THE BIG ODDS LIKE 20/1 etc because it is sods law one team will always Let you down. Football these days has changed with the money era and there is no longer the consistency of years ago, today it is more like pot luck each time you bet.

  13. Ryan 2 years ago

    Midweek challenge BET 1 £100 returns £220

    Napoli win
    Besiktas to score
    Pacos Ferreira v benfica o1.5mg

  14. Chris 2 years ago

    Both teams to score and Napoli win
    both team to score and celta vigo
    both teams to score and udinese

    3 fold pays £140 for £1

  15. Punting For Fun 2 years ago

    I agree with AnOnYmoUS and Mr F I also think this will prove to be a great addition to an already cracking site for punters.

    I just hope as Mr F says that this will be taken as its meant to be a bit of fun while getting a chance for a big lift every now and again.

  16. Wolverine 2 years ago

    Going for a rolling challenge bet starting today with just £10 so anyone can join in for little start off money.

    BET 1, (double)

    Draw or Tunisia & Benfica -0.5 Asian Handicap

    £10 on returns £19.17 for bet 2.

    Good luck if you choose to follow.

  17. Centrecircle 2 years ago

    Mr f -love the idea….im on both!!! ..
    Have a feeling both will make a profit
    Gl lads

  18. Fitba Tips 2 years ago

    I am on Mr F’s side on this one. Slow but sure wins the race. However, for that to be proven this experiment will need to run for a long time and get a large sample size. All it takes is Lee to have a wee run of form knocking in 3 10/1+ shots in a few days and the gap could be massive.

    At least Lee seems sensible enough no to be putting 10pt stakes on his long shots. he would defo go broke on that pretty fast.

    Great idea, I will be watching with plenty of interest.

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 2 years ago

      Fitba Tips, I’ll try to run it until the end of the season – assuming Lee’s not gone bust by then.

  19. Speedy 2 years ago

    Mr f agree with you there there’s no place for that fobts on the high st . Hopefully labour if they get in will do as they say and decrease them to a maximum bet of only £2 . The shops have lost a lot of customers over the years because of these machines.

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 2 years ago

      Speedy, it will depend on how much tax they raise for the Government! I don’t like FOBTs but anyone who can’t ignore has a problem that needs dealt with. I go into shops every day and have never put a penny in them. Actually I see a reduction in their use and that’s good if true. There used to be queues to use them but now I see them sitting empty.

  20. Teas 2 years ago

    Mr F, i’m glad you’re finally doing this. 😀
    I hope Raal is nice enough to start one too.
    Then it’ll be Mr F, Lee and Raal. we’ve got the bucks to run all three.

  21. Alex 2 years ago

    Mr F, I do believe that the answer to your question (time will prove if I’m correct on this occasion) is that “Lee” will be further up than you in the long term. I have done something similar in fact prior to coming across your site last May. I used to take around 10-1 shots (or higher) with around 5-6 teams for £20-£25 (adjusted depending on the odds). Some weekends I would bring 3 up and others none. I was always up. I think it all boils down to Maths Mr F and we have a few stats based people on here that will probably summarise this better than me. I will generalise at best! At the odds that you have put on you could conceivably win 7 in a row and more. If you keep to level stakes you should be ok but your return will be low and a set back will be noticeable. Where as with “Lee” he can afford to loose 6-7 in a row and land one big one that will blow you out the water. It really depends on how good he is at picking out his teams. He could on one occasion hit a 50-1 monster! I suppose it may also depend on how cavalier each of you will be with your stakes depending on how the other’s game plan is going. It will be interesting. Good luck.

    • raaljaca 2 years ago

      My mistake Mr F and apologies I completely misread his odds.

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 2 years ago

      Alex, I agree. I need a massive hit rate but expect to have it and if Lee hits a 50-1 winner I’ll be first to applaud him. As I say it’s just a fun trial.

  22. raaljaca 2 years ago

    Mr F his long shots are a minimum of 10/1 up to 20/1? Todays is 10/3 which is actually a totally different type of bet from the ones he does. Would it not be better for him to do his 10/1 minimum bets and let us see if he does actually land any?

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 2 years ago

      raaljaca, you’ve misread it – the odds are 10.3-1 – I gave him the exact odds because we’re tallying the points. He won’t go under 10-1 he’s said.

  23. raaljaca 2 years ago

    Mr F I did read it wrong and apologise. So much to read and not enough eyes!!!

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 2 years ago

      raaljaca, no worries – I did it yesterday with the Super Single odds. Looked at price for the guy below Lacazatte – and that’s with new specs.

  24. Boco1976 2 years ago

    Longshot treble

    Cape verde island draw 2/1
    Angers draw 2/1
    Jong psv 7/10
    15.3/1 with bet365.

  25. sasij 2 years ago

    The quicker the better the machines dissapear for good, know plenty of people who dont go near a bookies now due to them.

  26. Speedy 2 years ago

    Same with gambling adverts they are everywhere , teams all sponsored by them too , it’s just too much, but that’s Britain just now for you

    • Adonis 2 years ago

      How do all. Spent about 6 months listening to you Mr F & all the regulars on here & sending a big thank you. Thought as I am getting involved this year I may as well give a little back. Sods law you will never hear of a winner off me but.. I’ll start putting my bets up. Thanks & Gu luck

  27. best bettor evah! 2 years ago

    to me this challenge wont prove what strategy is better ,but who the best/luckiest bettor is……will be exciting to follow the outcome though….can we bet on the result of your duel?someone set the odds for that one please!

  28. john 2 years ago

    Mr F, I have tried building bank putting money on short priced favourites and never had any success the problem being because of the short price the returns are very low and one or two losing bets wipes out all profits straight away.

  29. terry ire 2 years ago

    Another welcome addition. I for one would like to thank mr f for all the effort he puts in to the site.
    618.00 profit from this weekend and only for this site I would not be up so much.
    So lets thank mr f because he puts in such an effort.

  30. john 2 years ago

    Mr F, I have tried building bank putting money on short priced favourites and never had any success the problem being because of the short price the returns are very low and one or two losing bets wipes out all profits straight away. good luck

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 2 years ago

      john, I’m aware of that – the hope is to avoid losers then increase stakes as the pot builds. I’ll also be more ambitious with odds after a couple of winners. I don’t want wiped out after three days.

  31. Ryan 2 years ago

    I have to try this my longshot acca is –

    Celta Vigo to score
    Napoli and over 2.5 goals
    Besiktas
    Benfica o1.5tg
    Jong PSV v Jong Twente btts

    @12.93 = £10 returns £129.25

  32. best bettor evah! 2 years ago

    rochdale over 0.5 mg
    cape verde under 3.5 mg
    congo under 3.5 mg
    getafe over 0.5 mg
    napoli over 0.5 mg
    psv reserves over 0.5 mg
    empoli under 4.5 mg
    angers under 4.5 mg
    panaitolikos under 4.5 mg
    platanias under 4.5 mg
    macabi netanya under 5.5 mg
    pacos fereira under 2.5 team goals

    12fold pays exactly evens

  33. James M 2 years ago

    Longshot treble:

    Getafe vs CELTA VIGO @ 13/10
    Congo vs TUNISIA @ 6/5
    Angers vs BREST @ 2/1

    14.18/1 – £5 returns £75.90

  34. Boco1976 2 years ago

    Twelve fold paying evens too much can go wrong.

  35. Boco1976 2 years ago

    True mr f lol

  36. AnOnYmoUS 2 years ago

    Trying a 10/1 bet on the cards market later on today.

    Cape Verdi v Zambia Card before 36 min’s

    Dr Congo v Tunisia Card before 36 min’s

    Rochdale v Stoke Card before 36 min’s

    Getafe v Celta Vigo Under 6.5 cards

    10.29/1 bet365

    • AnOnYmoUS 2 years ago

      Ah well nearly a good start to this thread 3 winners and 1 loser in the celta game 1 card in the 1st half which looked good for my bet then 6 in the 2nd half with 3 in the last 10 mins of reg time then 1 in 90+1 stoppage time :-(

      The joys of gambling lol

  37. best bettor evah! 2 years ago

    yeah agree with u guys i don’t expect it to win really …i staked the minimum…..just thought it would fit the thread as is both a banker(individually) and a longshot(as a whole) hahaaha

  38. Jordan 2 years ago

    Does this have to be Football or can it be any sport, Mr F?

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 2 years ago

      Jordan, it can be any sport if you want to get involved. Tomorrow’s contest will be for football bets only though.

      • Jordan 2 years ago

        Ok, I was only going to get involved on the bank builder side of things. So if say I pick a Basketball market tonight, I won’t be able to continue that tomorrow unless it’s a Football pick?

        • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
          Mr Fixit 2 years ago

          Jordan, you can carry on as long as you want – all I’m saying is tomorrow only I’m doing a one-off contest and only football bets will be considered. You can enter one if you want.

  39. best bettor evah! 2 years ago

    my longshot getafe -celta 1-2 correct score @10

  40. IrishInAtlanta 2 years ago

    Had posted last night on the daily tips page about a system that I am working on that will fit just nice into this particular forum page. Im guessing that my post was way too long as it didn’t publish #NewbiePostMistake LOL
    Either way, all good now as I have found a home :)
    Anyway, basic (shorter) version of my system is taking advantage of Bet365 elite Euro leagues offer of a bonus payment on your winning acca up to 100%!!
    Trial runs have seen me hit 3 nice size accas and miss out by one team on another
    Small stakes for big profit and looking forward to sharing on here my progress and hopefully others might join in and reap some rewards

  41. Centrecircle 2 years ago

    CC BANK BUILDER
    BENFICA +0.5AH
    NAPOLI. +0.5AH
    GL LADS
    Starting from 20 points(£200)
    5points £50 rtns £62

  42. TamD 2 years ago

    Empoli vs Udinese (Draw)
    Angers to win against Brest
    Stoke city to win against Rochdale
    13.03/1 at Bet365

  43. Centrecircle 2 years ago

    Trying to win mr fs’ vouchor
    UDENIESE
    ERGOTELIS (greece)
    15/1 !!!!!!!!

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 2 years ago

      Centrecircle, the voucher is being given away tomorrow as it says.

      • Centrecircle 2 years ago

        Mr f.the vouchour is been given away tmrw after tonights tips have been won/put up
        Lol……

        • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
          Mr Fixit 2 years ago

          Centrecircle, I can’t be any clearer: “Tomorrow I’ll be giving away £20 of betting vouchers (UK only) to one person who can predict a winner bigger than Lee’s so look out for that.”
          Details will be revealed tomorrow – there is no contest today.

  44. jaguar 2 years ago

    Rochdale
    tunisia
    both to win

  45. Mike 2 years ago

    Really looking forward to seeing how this goes I think it’s a great idea. I like long shot acca’s myself, they get me excited and on the edge of my seat and I only ever put 1 or 2 pounds on so if I lose then I’m ok with that.

    I will be on both the Bank Builder and the Long Shot with just a few pounds on each and I will post my own acca shorty which will probably be a mix of tips from Mr F and Lee with a wildcard thrown in for some fun!

    Good luck everyone with these challenges.

  46. adam rollinson 2 years ago

    Hi can you tell me how I can contact you about becoming a tipster for you I want to be the tipster of rugby league as the season is due to start

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 2 years ago

      adam, you’re welcome to post your rugby league tips on the daily sports comments section.

    • nexus 2 years ago

      Just post under the sports tips section and you will be fine.

  47. garyedinburgh 2 years ago

    For info, the long shot is now near 12/1 at wills – in for a pound. The Empoli odds jumped.

    26 Jan 2015 – Empoli v Udinese – Match Betting
    Empoli @ 2.10
    26 Jan 2015 – Napoli v Genoa – Napoli Under/Over 2.5 Goals
    Over (2.5) @ 2.60
    26 Jan 2015 – Pacos Ferreira v Benfica – Benfica To Score Both Halve
    Yes @ 2.37
    Estimated Returns : £
    12.96

    Problem with long shots is buying drinks to everyone one weekend. Then footing bill other weeks – lol, follow Mr T and staking plan and ok.

  48. Ben 2 years ago

    Mr f, is that a double or 2 single bets at 3.5 points each?

  49. Evo21up 2 years ago

    Empoli draw, getafe draw, angers draw 31.69 @bet365

  50. Dazzler 2 years ago

    Cheers Mr F. Still waiting for team news.
    If either player doesn’t start my £5 will go on

    Stoke to win btts
    Napoli to win btts
    Udinese double chance

    17.14/1

  51. Mr Fishman 2 years ago

    long shot of the day

    ben -1
    nap and over 2.5
    cape verde game over 9 corners 3.5 cards and 2.5 goals
    emp game under 2.5
    getage under 2.5

    pays 102/1

  52. honda 2 years ago

    Hope everyone is well and for the laugh ill bang this one up. May fall down due t stoke but here we go:

    Stoke win and under 2.5 mg
    Napoli
    Benfica
    Besiktas

    Odds are 14.41/1 with William Hill

    Lets do this 😀

  53. Mike 2 years ago

    Empoli
    Stoke
    Benfica & over 2.5TG
    Napoli & over 2.5TG
    @15/1 Bet365

  54. garyedinburgh 2 years ago

    Cape Verde v Zambia – Match Betting
    DR Congo v Tunisia – Match Betting
    Draws @ 3.00 (x2)

    Benfica @ 1.44
    Napoli @ 1.40
    Stoke @ 1.61

    Win @ 29.40

    For the contest, not a tip
    :)

  55. Chip 2 years ago

    Love this idea, Mr F!! Good luck to you both :)

  56. Hudmystar 2 years ago

    John I’ve been bank building on (what I call bankers) all January and my results have been impressive so I’ve just started posting them on the normal thread for the last few days have a look and watch how I get on today’s bet is benfica £10 returns 14.44 this is bet 4 I’ve posted fingers crossed it comes in

  57. V P 2 years ago

    Higuain first team goalscorer (11/4)
    Di Natale first team goalscorer (7/2)
    15.88/1 Skybet

  58. Micky belfast 2 years ago

    Bestikas btts , empoli btts , getafe btts , angers win 16/1 bet365

  59. Zed 2 years ago

    Intrigued by the new trial Mr F, I like long shots from time to time but invariably 1 score let’s u down, but is good for excitement value.

    SS has been good to me and I think this is the key and will win the trial..Slowly but surely built the pot..

  60. Faulds88 2 years ago

    Liking this new section Mr F

    I feel everyone has missed a bet in te empoli game. It’s very risky on a match winner but not so risky when you look at the corner stats for both teams. I’ve bet empoli -5 @ 5/2 but not available with bet365 so my bet tonight is as follows;

    Empoli first to 9 corners 15/8
    Napoli to score over 2.5 goals 11/8
    Benfica over 1.5 goals 8/13
    Stoke 13/20
    17.19/1 that pays

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 2 years ago

      Faulds88, good luck with that – I just don’t have time to look at corner stats. Need to go out for a bit – and hopefully Empoli will beat Lee’s line. Only joking but on his treble that’s the one I wouldn’t back – I’d have gone under 2.5 goals.

  61. drew 2 years ago

    Long shot attempt

    stoke win
    angers DNB
    benfica to score 2+
    napoli to score 2+
    empoli v udinese u2.5 mg
    getafe v celta u2.5 mg

    @17.19

  62. the wet lettuce 2 years ago

    Napoli game goal inside 10 mins
    Benfica game goal inside 10 mins
    Rochdale v Stoke H/T Draw

    55/1 bet365

  63. CP1 2 years ago

    My bets would be

    Bank builder –

    Benfica to win and udinese DC gets 12 for a 5

    Long shot – udinese -1 is 21/2 £1 on that

    Good luck all

  64. Bookies Can Lose! 2 years ago

    Mr F, that’s a very interesting point you raised and I would like to comment, if you allow. I will appreciate your views on that.

    You will try to prove that backing teams at shorter odds is a better strategy and Lee will try to prove you are wrong as he will be taking massive risks. Which one if you is right? I would say that either of you because that’s not the point.

    Let’s take an example of rolling the dice. You have a bank of 10 GBP, I will pay you 1 GBP if it’s 1, 2 or 3 and take 1 GBP from your bank if it’s 4, 5 or 6. Would you play that game with me? Would that be a better strategy than if I gave 6 GBP to someone who throws 1 and take 1 GBP from his bank if he throws anything else? Both games are the same looking at them long term, however you can make a lot of profit or a lot of loss in first say 50 throws.

    Let’s get back to football then. You are saying that a selection has 50-50 chance of landing if the odds are evens. That’s not always the case, is it? Bookies often offer you 1.95 (decimal odds) for a selection that can land with 50% probability. Each punter will lose money long term, if he is are betting on that. Now, what if the odds are 2.05? Or I’m giving you 1.1 GBP instead of 1 GBP in my dice example if you throw 1, 2 or 3. You should play that game with me as you will no doubt win long term.

    To summarize, you will win if Lee’s bank runs dry before yours but will that prove that your strategy is better? It is possible that he would be able to recover his losses in say next 50 bets or so. How many bets you guys would need to place to be able to say which strategy is better long term? 100, 1000…?

    For me the key is to find value bets, the ones that bookies price wrong. Only then you will get odds advantage on probability (doesn’t matter if it’s 2/1 selection or 10/1 selection). I think you are doing that already (selecting good value bets) as you can prove long term profit on your SS.

    Raaljaca (cheers!) mentioned a few days ago an importance of comparing prices between different bookies – that seems to be a key – that’s why he wins. The small difference between 1.95 odds and 2.05 compared to 50% probability can decide whether you are beating the bookies long term or not.

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 2 years ago

      Bookies Can Lose, you’re reading too much into it. A bit of fun more than anything – and where I possible I always compare and quote top price.

  65. paul 2 years ago

    My long shot

    RocHdale 2 stoke 1

    16/1

    Cash out if u get good cash out offer

  66. Mr H 2 years ago

    Long shot treble….

    Pacos v Benefica

    Pacos have found the net in 12 of their last 15 home league matches and conceded in 14 of those games with 10 going over 2.5gls

    Benefice have an incredible record of scoring in their last 41 away league matches,the last time they failed too score on the road in a league match was way back in April 2012 at Sporting Lisbon.

    BTTS & O2.5gls 8/5

    Napoli v Genoa

    Napoli have scored in 14 of their last 15 home games and conceded in 11 of them,BTTS has come in 10 times with 11 of those matches over 2.5gls

    Genoa have scored in 13 of their last 15 away matches and conceded in 13 too,12 of those matches seen BTTS and over 2.5gls in 11 of the 15 matches

    BTTS &O2.5gls 6/5

    Angers v Brest

    Angers have played 9 at home winning 6,drawing 2 and losing just once too top of the table Troyes. They have kept 6 clean sheets in those 9 games

    Brest have won just twice on the road this season and making that 3 is a difficult task at a strong home team in Angers

    Angers win 6/4

    Treble pays 13.3/1

  67. Dave Wiseman 2 years ago

    Gone on both lol, hoping for a banker to subsidise the long shots.

  68. Shaun 2 years ago

    Part 1 of your new challenge is In Ryan the Besiktas goal! :)

  69. recoba1980 2 years ago

    Stuck thisvon this morning and at just over 9/1 skybet its a decent long shot thats up and running.
    Cant check odds or return as its disappeared off skybets bet-tracker? Anyone would like to fiqure it feel free but pretty sure 9.34/1 was the odds.

    South Korea -1…21-20 WON
    Napoli…4/11
    Australia -1…11/8

    Got a bigger stake on South Korea,Australia double which is looking good now but hope wee Long shot treble hits at the same time :)

  70. delpez 2 years ago

    Longshot,small bet @64/1

    Ht/ft

    Draw/ft
    Stoke
    Napoli
    Benfica.

  71. Hutch 2 years ago

    My long shot

    Benfica to win 3-1 11/1
    Stoke to win 3-1 14/1
    £5 Double 179/1

  72. recoba1980 2 years ago

    Been shopping Mr F? Cause thats some nice new threads you’ve put on…
    “al gets me coat” 😛

  73. alasu57 2 years ago

    Lee’s longshot down already !!!

  74. Mr Fishman 2 years ago

    rochdale to win 14/1

  75. recoba1980 2 years ago

    Mr F um still getting no joy with Skbet and there bet tracker? Would you say that treble o posted was about right? Put it on at 3am this morning but quite sure those were the odds.

  76. andrew dodd 2 years ago

    Hello did Mr Wenger wear a coat yesterday as I had a small bet on him when I saw a bet as advertised on this website.Please advise, thanks

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 2 years ago

      andrew, I’m sure he did – check the comments because it was flagged up.

  77. V P 2 years ago

    Mr F do entries from today not count then. My 15.88/1 longshot won and its probably used my longshot luck up, doubt I could do it 2 days in a row.

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 2 years ago

      V P, there was no contest today – read the post … it says tomorrow and has already been stressed. I’m sure you can do it again.

  78. Bookies Can Lose! 2 years ago

    Perhaps my approach was too serious – just working on beating the bookies and math plays an important part in it.

    Good luck with your challenge! Seems like you will win round 1.

  79. V P 2 years ago

    I only realised it probably wasn’t today after reading your later comments. I did read the post and now see how I misunderstood. Just semantics.

  80. Centrecircle 2 years ago

    UDENIESE
    ERGOTELIS (greece)
    15/1 !!!!!!!!
    “””WON””””

  81. Lee 2 years ago

    Bank builder or bank breaker?

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 2 years ago

      Lee, tonight a bank breaker – Lee will be delighted with that. Didn’t see one person who fancied Pacos before the game – so don’t get too smart.

  82. Ryan 2 years ago

    Absolutely gutted just needed 1 more goal in the benfica game for my bet 1 and my longshot acca to be up.

    Midweek challenge BET 1

    Napoli win
    Besiktas to score
    Pacos Ferreira v benfica o1.5mg

    *LOST*

    Celta Vigo to score
    Napoli and over 2.5 goals
    Besiktas
    Benfica o1.5tg
    Jong PSV v Jong Twente btts

    *LOST*

  83. CiderArmy 2 years ago

    On to the next Ryan, I fell with you on the midweek challenge – you just can’t do anything about that – freaky game. I did have Napoli BTTS and O2.5 MGS which covers most of my loss.

    Start again tomorrow!

  84. Dazzler 2 years ago

    The Udinese game started at 6 so ended up of both of these on because there was no Stoke team news at the time.

    Phil Bardsley & Ryan Shawcross both to be carded @ 16/1 *LOST*
    Bardsley booked, Shawcross not booked.

    Stoke to win btts
    Napoli to win btts
    Udinese double chance

    17.14/1 *WON*

    If it wasn’t for Mr F mentioning Shawcross being a doubt I wouldn’t have put the second bet on, so big thanks for that Mr F!

  85. Ryan 2 years ago

    Cheers, ciderarmy I think I will start the challenge again tomorrow but with less than £100. I’m glad you got a winner today which was better than what I did.

  86. Boco1976 2 years ago

    Two out of three on my longshot treble beat by an injury time goal by brest but sure that happens week in week out.

  87. Andrew Dodd 2 years ago

    Well that is £70 down today following the bank builder Napoli and Benfica DNB double. What with Saturdays football results. The bookies must be laughing their heads off.

    • Profile photo of Mr Fixit Author
      Mr Fixit 2 years ago

      Andrew, the bank builder is a trial – your choice to back it. Anyway, Benfica was a shock result – everyone backed them and they lost. Let’s get over it and try to do better tomorrow.

Leave a reply

CONTACT US

We're not around right now. But you can send us an email and we'll get back to you, asap.

Sending

About MrFixitsTips  |  FAQs  |  Support  |  Contact Us  |  Gamble Aware  |  Privacy Policy  | Part of the Gambla Network ©2016 12th Man Media Ltd.

Log in with your credentials

Forgot your details?