Jan 23: Johnb’s Racing Tips & Chat

Racing_WilliamHill

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IT was 2pts lost for Johnb on Sunday with Fontwell’s abandonment meaning only one of his two tips ran.

He’s now 41.25pts down for January and has a joint Nap/NB among his Monday picks.

Johnb’s Monday Tips

Wolverhampton 2:00
American Patrol 13-2 Paddy power

Newcastle 2:10
Maxed Out King 15-8 NAP/NB Paddy power (double stake)

Double 20.56-1 paddy power

American Patrol
At time of writing this American Patrol has gone 8-1 to 7-1 to 13-2 probably will and should be shorter. We have a pretty poor field here but American Patrol should have an abundance of improvement in him, he is nicely bred and should be better than a 55 rated horse.
I have mentioned before when maverik won for us, just how good the Neil Mulholland record is on the all weather and especially when Adam Kirby is onboard, the pair were only just denied yesterday when beaten a short head.
American Patrol last time out was given a pretty easy time with the jockey doing enough to make it look like he was giving the horse a race but in reality it was nothing more than a workout, kept at the back, well off the pace he was given a shake of the reins and he showed a bit of speed round the bend, he was then given a hands and heels ride.  Monday he has Adam Kirby onboard so tomorrow has to be a going day. After writing this American Patrol is 5-1.

Maxed Out King NAP/NB
How this horse wasn’t made favourite baffles me, his last run has thrown up a whole host of good runs, the second horse was beat a neck next time out, while the third, fourth and fifth all won and the horse that came sixth was beat a nose.
Only six horses finished that race and the most a horse was beaten next time out was a neck.
Maxed Out King has won convincingly on his two chase starts and just shows the improvement a horse can have just by switching from hurdles to fences and a handicap mark of 107 now is still on the low side.
We also have the added form of Maxed Out King was beaten just 6 1/2 lengths when third behind The Last Samuri “last seasons Grand National runner up” at Taylorstown point to point over 3 miles on soft ground and from level weights
Maxed Out King is now favourite and being well backed.

 

Antepost Tips

  • 1000 Guineas 2017 – PROMISE TO BE TRUE 20-1 Betfred (now 25-1)
  • 2000 Guineas 2017 – CHURCHILL 20-1 bet365 (now 6-4)
  • 2017 Derby – CHURCHILL 33-1 Racebets (now 7-1)
  • 2000 Guineas 2017 – BLUE POINT 14-1 racebets (now 33-1)

Johnb says: “I have already advised Churchill for next year’s 2000 Guineas & Derby – he has been really impressive this season and my view is he will get even better next year.

“Blue Point on the other hand is harder to call for how he will progress next year. If he trains on then in my view it’s a straight fight between Blue Point & Churchill but in the Derby Churchill is the only horse for me – he gives me the same excitement as Golden Horn did.

“But to answer my question earlier the most impressive horse I have seen this year is BLUE POINT with Churchill and Annie Power a close second and third.”

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63 Comments
  1. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 8 months ago

    American Patrol

    At time of writing this American Patrol has gone 8/1>7/1>13/2 probably will and should be shorter,
    We have a pretty poor field here but American Patrol should have an abundance of improvement in him, he is nicely bred and should be better than a 55 rated horse,
    I have mentioned before when maverik won for us, just how good the Neil Mulholland record is on the all weather and especially when Adam Kirby is onboard, the pair were only just denied yesterday when beaten a short head,
    American Patrol last time out was given a pretty easy time with the jockey doing enough to make it look like he was giving the horse a race but in reality it was nothing more than a workout, kept at the back, well off the pace he was given a shake of the reins and he showed a bit of speed round the bend, he was then given a hands and heels ride
    Monday he has Adam Kirby onboard so tomorrow has to be a going day
    After writing this American Patrol is 5/1

    Maxed Out King NAP/NB

    How this horse wasn’t made favourite baffles me, his last run has thrown up a whole host of good runs, the second horse was beat a neck next time out, while the third, fourth and fifth all won and the horse that came sixth was beat a nose,
    Only six horses finished that race and the most a horse was beaten next time out was a neck,
    Maxed Out King has won convincingly on his two chase starts and just shows the improvement a horse can have just by switching from hurdles to fences and a handicap mark of 107 now is still on the low side,
    We also have the added form of Maxed Out King was beaten just 6 1/2 lengths when third behind The Last Samuri “last seasons Grand National runner up” at Taylorstown point to point over 3 miles on soft ground and from level weights
    Maxed Out King is now favourite and being well backed

  2. Profile photo of andyeff
    andyeff 8 months ago

    Should of gone bigger on neon but let the love that people had for Elgin got in my head and I went small. I suppose it was also that neon hadn’t yet been at that level.

    Got on the a toi Phil and blakmaj tips today, small but pretty happy. Few others that didn’t work.

    Love the page but so many tips that it becomes a whole new problem just trying to picking the right ones 😉 still find it really helpful to see what everyone thinks.

    On maxed out. Really like the pick John b. Had a look and records seem to say he was 21ls down on samurai but still strong form.

    • Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 8 months ago

      Yeah different sites showing different results for that race and can’t find a recording of the race but I will find out the true result

  3. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 8 months ago

    Nap Tangramm 7/4. 4.30 Wolverhampton
    Nb Whiskey Chaser 9/4. 2.50 Bangor
    EW Pivotman 8/1. 5.00 Wolverhampton

  4. Profile photo of jazzerbhoy
    jazzerbhoy 8 months ago

    Timoteo 2.20 Bangor 11/4 nap
    Lady Buttons 3/1 Newc 1.40 Nb.
    Good luck to all.

  5. Profile photo of gollum2882
    gollum2882 8 months ago

    posted on yesterdays

    1.50 ban – back to the thatch 2/1 NB
    2.10 new – eastview boy 8/1
    2.50 ban – whiskey chaser 9/4 NAP
    3.20 ban – cabragh 5/2

    lucky 15

    and on the aw

    2.30 wol – viola park 10/1 EW NB
    4.00 wol – gabriel the terror 16/1 EW
    4.30 wol – tangramm 2/1
    5.30 wol – gabriel the thug 5/1 NAP

    gl all

      • Profile photo of Johnb
        Johnb 8 months ago

        Doesn’t matter how long ago a race is, it’s about translating a horses ability from then to now and judging the progression, the figures in my system says that the improvement from Maxed Out King from his ptp days to his early chase days means he really should be a 120ish rated horse at this stage, so I reckon he is 13lb well in, he moves through his races a lot better than he did then, it looks a more natural action which helps with judging his improvement, he may be 9 but he is lightly raced after virtually two years off the track,

        I have looked for two days but can’t find footage of the race so I might be wrong with my write up and apologise if it is but it doesn’t change my very strong opinion that Maxed Out King will lead from start to finish

        http://www1.attheraces.com/racecard/Taylorstown/11-May-2013/1430

        • Profile photo of andyeff
          andyeff 8 months ago

          Still think john bs nap is the right pick at this point (ie before the result is known) whether or not it wins.

          Just saw the distance in my research and though I’d say. Samurai is incredible and gutsy so to me it’s strong form either way and does take into account improvements .

          Gl all.

  6. Profile photo of tipsultan
    tipsultan 8 months ago

    Posted yesterday

    wolv

    3.00 The last debutante- 15/8 (NAP/NB)-2 points

    4.00- Eurato- 3/1- 1 point

    Singles and 1 point double

    Total 4 points

    Good luck

  7. Profile photo of dannydan
    dannydan 8 months ago

    Another Mattie ew @ 18/1 3:40 Newcastle

  8. Profile photo of theplug
    theplug 8 months ago

    2-00 WOLVERHAMPTON
    NAP/NB METRONOMIC 7/4

  9. Profile photo of paddy irishman
    paddy irishman 8 months ago

    NAP CABRAGH 9/4 3.20
    EW TOMKEVI 10/1 3.40
    EW CAPTAIN SHARPE 25/1 1.40

    Good luck today

  10. Profile photo of ew thief
    ew thief 8 months ago

    Morning all
    Bartholomew 2.30w 33/1
    Native optimist 3.40n 28/1
    With hindsight 4.30w 11/1
    Roman de brut 5.00w 10/1
    Zed candy girl 5.30w 20/1 nap
    Ew singles & ew lucky31 🍀Gl all

  11. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 8 months ago

    Timoteo 2.20 nb
    Auric goldfinger 2.30 nAp

    Good luck all

  12. Profile photo of evdogg
    evdogg 8 months ago

    Uncle Bernie Wolves 4.00 10/1

  13. Profile photo of simonwoodles
    simonwoodles 8 months ago

    Thought about backing American patrol at 5/1 last night. Woke up this morning and he’s 1/1??? How did that happen lol

  14. Profile photo of word2mother
    word2mother 8 months ago

    American Patrol getting more smashed in than an innocent African American fleeing from an American Patrol.

    Sticking with Tim Vaughan and Alan John’s today, although Dick Johnson has two rides for the in form trainer that might be worth a look.

    Fayette County – new 1510 4/1
    Dubai Angel – new 1540 evs
    Rolling Thunder – ban 1520 4/1

    Adding each of the above in treble with Maxed out king and whisky chaser

  15. Profile photo of harryjw
    harryjw 8 months ago

    Morning all,

    Apologies for the later post. Yesterday was a strange day, firstly Gangster was left as outright second favourite but dissapointrd after taking Yorkhill on to early. That was followed by a close second for Stellar Notion and another second with Mydor running well. Both returned small each way Money. Then Bakmaj won the bumper with ease to get somthing back in the pot. Hopefully that will spark the return to form today. 2 bets for me today including 1 increased bet.

    16:30 Wolverhampton- Tangramm 2/1

    This is a horse whom I have been waiting to spot again for a few weeks. I’m slightly annoyed I missed the 3/1 around last night. Nevertheless, Tangramm looks primed to strike today. This previous course and distance winner has only had 2 runs this season and his run last time had “fitness run” all over it. He was never really asked to go on and win and he broke slowly from the gates yet he ran on well for a very close 4th. I noted him down as a horse who will go close next time on the back of that. Off the same mark today and last time and with red not Robert Winston continuing in the saddle he can resume winning ways today and 2/1 looks very fair. With all my criteria met I have to increase my stake (15pnts win) But as always nothing is assured.

    17:00 Wolverhampton – Gossiping 6/4

    This horse undoubtably landed a huge gamble last time out when dropped to class 6 but his performance that day didn’t elude to any type of fluke. According to the time stats he ran well above the normal level for a class 6. If he continues in the same vein of form today there is no reason why he can’t complete a quick double. He has been raised 8lbs for that run last time but that might not be enough to stop him (1.5 pnts win). I was close to putting backing him to an increased stake as well but the race does have more strength in depth than his last victory.

    Other bets:

    I will also be doing a 1.5points double on both horses this afternoon.

    Many thanks and GL to all

    • Profile photo of
      8 months ago

      harry what is your points total this month .you put it up everyday last month

      thanks

      • Profile photo of Mr Fixit
        Mr Fixit 8 months ago

        Don’t ask anyone for points unless it’s Johnb.
        If anyone wants to put them up fair enough but no pressure please.

        • Profile photo of
          8 months ago

          sorry mr f but surely if people use points everyday they shouid put totals up not just when they win but everyday

          that is why johnb should get more respect as he puts his totals up win or lose and is confident he will win long term.

          like you say if they want to put them up fair enough but when they only put totals up when their winning is a bit wrong dont you think.

          wont mention it again

          • Profile photo of Mr Fixit
            Mr Fixit 8 months ago

            Do you put up points? No.
            Johnb’s the main tipster – everyone else is a valued contributor who people can choose to follow or not.
            Every tips is appreciated with people giving freely of their time to post.
            If you choose to follow someone such as Alanm I’m sure you’ll know their form.

            • Profile photo of
              8 months ago

              mr f i am agreeing with you john is the main tipster just said he deserves more respect

              and i always say well done to winners including alanm many times im sure he will tell you.

              just saying the other tipsters should not use points unless they are going to stand by them on a daily basis

              i think that is fair .

              thanks

        • Profile photo of harryjw
          harryjw 8 months ago

          Dont give a Donald,

          I did not put it up everyday last month. But I have no issue with posting my points total as I keep a detailed record of all bets I place.

          January:

          47 bets placed

          Currently 4.44 points up from 219 points stakes.

          11 increased stake bets with 5 profitable returns.

          ROI for January is currently 1.02.

          The recent sticky patch has eaten into January’s profits so far but there is still plenty of time to go.

          Since starting posting on the site (Nov):

          149.19 points up from
          154 bets

          15 profitable increased stake bets from 28. (54%)

          ROI = 1.24

          Mrfixit,

          Thanks for the post but I have no issue with anyone asking me for my stats as I keep detailed records and I am not scared or ashamed in sharing them.

          Many thanks and BOL to all

          • Profile photo of harryjw
            harryjw 8 months ago

            Don’t give a Donald,

            In relation to your second post. Untill last Thursday I was sitting at 45 points up for January and I didn’t mention that once. So please don’t say I “only post my stats when I’m winning”. Gambling is my life and I know better than most you can’t win all the time. If anyone wants to know my stats feel free to ask at anytime I have nothing to hide.

            Thanks

            • Profile photo of harryjw
              harryjw 8 months ago

              In future I will post my stats daily when I am at my desk.

              But I spend a lot of time travelling around the UK so this will not always be possible as I need access to my spreadsheet.

              Hope that will solve any gripes.

              • Profile photo of Mr Fixit
                Mr Fixit 8 months ago

                No gripes from me – you owe us nothing.
                Appreciate every tip that’s put up.
                Your choice whether to put up points or not.

            • Profile photo of
              8 months ago

              harry no prob think i asked a fair question .dont understand why that should have caused a problem

              and there are others using points as well as you whose totals suddenly dissapear

              just to me if you use a points system stand by it through thick and thin and good luck

              • Profile photo of harryjw
                harryjw 8 months ago

                I rely on my points system to keep a tally of my bets and profit.

                Like I said it doesn’t bother me posting my stats if your ever interested in the future just ask me.

                • Profile photo of geo
                  geo 8 months ago

                  The fact that you asked the question assuming he only wasn’t showing his numbers because he wasn’t in profit shows that you asked it with no sincerity. Therefore your question was in no way a fair one.

                • Profile photo of harryjw
                  harryjw 8 months ago

                  I can only apologise to anyone following me. My luck has turned against me big time. As everyone knows you can go through spells where everything goes against you. All I can do it carry on with the system and keep the faith. Hopefully the luck will turn soon.

                  Apologies once again.

                • Profile photo of Mr Fixit
                  Mr Fixit 8 months ago

                  Happens to Johnb, happens to most people.
                  Happens to me with the football – that’s betting for you.

                • Profile photo of harryjw
                  harryjw 8 months ago

                  Couldn’t agree more mrfixit it happens to all of us. Gambling can be a cruel mistress at times! As I’ve learnt before you have to carry on in the knowledge the good times will return!

                  Thanks for a great site.

  16. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 8 months ago

    Jb double is offering me 3x the stake amount already without any racing fingers crossed

  17. Profile photo of azzthewigan
    azzthewigan 8 months ago

    eastview boy 2.10 dinsdale 2.20 hollow blue sky 2.50 rolling thunder 3.20 ew l15 well done all winners yesterday

  18. Profile photo of dannydan
    dannydan 8 months ago

    Tanksalot
    @ 10/3 (Place Only – 3 Places market) 2:00 Wolverhampton

  19. Profile photo of ew thief
    ew thief 8 months ago

    Well done Johnb gl for the double

  20. Profile photo of jazzerbhoy
    jazzerbhoy 8 months ago

    nice start Johnb hopefully the double now.

  21. Profile photo of dannydan
    dannydan 8 months ago

    Bob’s Boy
    @ 8/1 (Win market) 2:20 Bangor

  22. Profile photo of theplug
    theplug 8 months ago

    cant believe it i backed the herds garden shit

  23. Profile photo of dannydan
    dannydan 8 months ago

    Panther In Pink
    @ 16/1 (Win market) 2:30 Wolverhampton

  24. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 8 months ago

    It really doesn’t surprise me to see just how stupid and gullible our stewards are,
    I did mention in my write up my thoughts on American Patrols last run and by the looks of it the jockey did enough for the stewards to think he was riding a race but it really is embarrassing that we have stewards that just don’t know enough about horse racing

    Stewards Report

    Race 1 – 2:00pm
    THE £10 FREE AT 32Red.com HANDICAP STAKES (CLASS 6) (DIV I)

    The Stewards held an enquiry to consider the apparent improvement in form of the well-backed winner, AMERICAN PATROL (IRE), ridden by Adam Kirby, and trained by Neil Mulholland, compared with its previous run at Chelmsford on 8th December 2016 where the colt finished seventh of fifteen, beaten by 7¾ lengths. They interviewed the trainer who stated that the colt had jumped out of the stalls better on this occasion in what was, he considered, a very weak race. Having heard his evidence, they noted his explanation and ordered AMERICAN PATROL to be routine tested.

  25. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 8 months ago

    As for Maxed Out King it was disappointing but it may end up that he is a horse that needs to brought out quickly as in every 7 to 14 days as he traveled well today but just looking like he lacked a bit of fitness, if I could advise connections I would say to bring him out quickly for another run

    American Patrol wasn’t really a shock as he never looked tried with last time and the money today 13/2 to odds on 10/11 then returning 11/10 told us he was on a going day today

  26. Profile photo of dannydan
    dannydan 8 months ago

    alanm thank you I know that it’s impossible to finish the day without you having a winner

  27. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 8 months ago

    Pivotman saves the day nice early price 8/1 small rule 4 anyone backed it on 365 will get free bet in last im on the top weight GL

    Well done all winners today.

  28. Profile photo of azzthewigan
    azzthewigan 8 months ago

    well done Alanm cheers

  29. Profile photo of bpabsie
    bpabsie 8 months ago

    Magic Alan cheers

  30. Profile photo of azzthewigan
    azzthewigan 8 months ago

    been a hard day’s racing today well done all who picked winners today illsithey

  31. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 8 months ago

    3.5pt profit Monday
    January 37.75pts down

    Tuesdays Tips

    Leicester
    2:20
    La Vaticane 9/4 NB Ladbrokes

    Southwell
    2:40
    Dungannon 1/1 NAP bet365

    3:10
    Meadway 5/1 bet365

    Also 3x 0.5pt doubles & 1x 0.5pt treble bet365 2/1 1/1 5/1

    • Profile photo of elvis parsley
      elvis parsley 8 months ago

      Nice wins John and Alan m, on a day of dismal cards to be honest.
      One of those damage limitation days for most I guess until decent races return.

      Johns calls were spot on, just look at the price drop on them, looks like maxed out king was done by the 11lb weight hike in testing ground.

  32. Profile photo of bpabsie
    bpabsie 8 months ago

    Nice win John cheers

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