Jan 21: Johnb’s Racing Tips & Chat

Racing_WilliamHill

IT was close but no cigar for Johnb on Wednesday with his Nap finishing second.

His NB didn’t run due to Newbury being abandoned so it was 2pts lost on the day and January is now a 3.42pt deficit.

Johnb’s Thursday Tips

Southwell 1:10
Honeymoon Cocktail 2-1 NB bet365

Chelmsford 5:40
Gaelic Silver 2-1 NAP bet365

Double
Honeymoon Cocktail & Gaelic Silver 8-1 bet365

Gaelic Silver (NAP)
Johnb says: It has always been said that claiming races are the easiest to make money on, some say back the top weight & some say back the horses carrying 9-4 or more as these horses win about 25% of the races.
It does actually take a bit more research than that. Claiming races work on the basis that the handicapper works out the weight every horse carries by their handicap mark but then it’s up to the connections who can reduce the weight they have been allocated, it does however cost them for every 1lb they take off.
That money comes off the claiming price that the winner has.
I believe strongly that Gaelic Silver is being lined up to win on Thursday while not reducing his claim price, he has a very good 7lb claimer on in Paddy Bradley but Gaelic Silver is also a far better class of horse than anything else here, without having to concede the weight he should be.

Honeymoon Cocktail (NB)
Johnb says: Watching this horse run, I can’t see why he wouldn’t handle the fibresand, but there is always a doubt till a horse actually runs on it.
It’s not just because it’s deeper, it’s also because no other all-weather track has a kick back like Southwell, a lot of horses don’t like it. This horse came over from France to join David Pipe and he was actually decent in France but has taken time to get going for the Pipe yard.
I have said a lot that there is always reasons for a horse getting beat, we just have to look for those reasons.
Honeymoon Cocktail when looking at previous runs before he won last time, looked a horse that needed stepped up in distance. Last time out he was found a good race, he won very easy without the jockey having to ask any questions, he beat Shirataki by 3 lengths but was also giving that horse 19lb.
That form was given a massive boost on Wednesday when I thought Shirataki was the day’s unluckiest loser, Lulu Stanford was on Shirataki and all the way down the straight she struggled to find the gaps.
Shirataki crossed the line in seventh beaten one & half lengths but he was still on the bridle.
Honeymoon Cocktail has only been raised 1lb for that last win and is clearly the horse to beat if handling the surface.

92 Comments
  1. Profile photo of stevie
    stevie 11 months ago

    Today’s nr is running at wincanton 4:25 tomorrow Johnb…. Thoughts?

    • Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 11 months ago

      It was on my shortlist but would have preferred the race to be over further

  2. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 11 months ago

    Shortlist horses

    Wincanton 4:25 Leg Lock Luke 9/4
    Southwell 2:55 Greyfriarschorista 11/4
    Wincanton 1:35 Light Well 10/1
    Wincanton 2:45 Dawson City 4/1

    THESE ARE NOT MY MAIN TIPS

  3. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 11 months ago

    NAP FUJIN 2/1 12.40 Southwell
    NB Burning Blaze 5/1 4.05 Southwell
    They’re off and running is the Nap GL

  4. Profile photo of rookie
    rookie 11 months ago

    Recap Lucky 15
    17.10 K Rahyah 3/1 -LOST
    14.10 L Harlestone hopes 11/2 -LOST
    13.00 L Byron flyer 5/2 -WON 3/1
    13.15 F Sunsetstorise 6/1 -WON 8/1
    E/w lucky 15
    18.40 K Bogardus 8/1 -PLACE
    16.05 M Arctic court 12/1 -WON
    13.45 M Sky full of stars 10/1-LOST
    15.10 N Fruity o rooney 9/1- NR
    Total stakes 22.5pts
    Total returns around 56pts

    Turns out i wasnt just givin back the footy profit! Woop

  5. Profile photo of rookie
    rookie 11 months ago

    14.45 Win Dawson city 4/1
    14.10 Win Alder mairi 9/2
    15.20 Win All set to go 4/1

  6. Profile photo of
    11 months ago

    Alpha Des Obeaux Gowran 2.00 is a bet for me tomorrow 2/1 PP Trainer always speaks very highly of this horse its had lots of 2nds but some roll of stars that have beat it.
    Cracking race tomorrow like a world hurdle trial but lots of if’s and buts about the opposition.

    • Profile photo of alanm
      alanm 11 months ago

      With JP one in the race would put me off to be honest But liking Rule the world 9/1 in the 3.10 GL

      • Profile photo of
        11 months ago

        Hes 2 in the race alanm At Fishers Cross will love the ground but its 9 now and 1st run of the season and Noble Emperor not sure that will stay the 3m and form does not look good enough.
        Martello Tower has its group 1 pen to give away Briar Hill i make the danger but its going to have to be 100% after a year off to pick this race up on heavy ground.

      • Profile photo of wmgy
        wmgy 11 months ago

        That 3.10 race would seriously melt your brain trying to find the winner.

      • Profile photo of elvis parsley
        elvis parsley 11 months ago

        Rule the world usually runs his race but invariably finds one too good.
        Which one tomorrow ? God knows.
        Interesting to see how suntiep runs, last seen in the cheltenham 4 miler in 2014

    • Profile photo of elvis parsley
      elvis parsley 11 months ago

      I fancy this as well.
      Fishers cross getting a bit long in the tooth.
      Briar hill one of the few donkeys Mullins has had, most over hyped for sure.
      Marcello tower too much weight.
      Noble empower not good enough

      • Profile photo of Johnb
        Johnb 11 months ago

        Totally disagree about Briar Hill being a donkey, he has had his problems which is why he has only had 7 Hurdle races at 8 years of age,
        On his day he is still a classy horse

        • Profile photo of elvis parsley
          elvis parsley 11 months ago

          Since winning the cheltenham flat race in 2013 Brian hill won 3 hurdles at odds of 1-9 1-4-1-3 then when upped in class the 4 races have seen him fall twice and beat 1 opponent in the other 2 races combined.
          His problem is he can’t jump ??? Maybe…..
          2014 cheltenham was his zero hour but fell, and the horse that won, very wood, had been beat by Brian hill in the last race before This.
          2 years on, can’t see him suddenly get a grip on jumping.
          Surely a hurdler shouldn’t fall twice in 4 races

          • Profile photo of duncanpoundcake
            duncanpoundcake 11 months ago

            Ruby will nurse him round there is good place money on offer even Mr Wylie needs them to earn their corn money .

          • Profile photo of Johnb
            Johnb 11 months ago

            They did say at the time when he fell in the Albet Bartlett, when Casey moved him out a little to get a better look at the hurdle the horse stumbled on a bad piece of ground, he had a really bad injury from that fall and it has taken time,
            Today isn’t his main target, its just about getting a run in before Cheltenham, class wise though he is better than these but the target is Cheltenham

  7. Profile photo of dkblindspot
    dkblindspot 11 months ago

    Saved my Bacon 7:10 C 9/2(nap)
    Unlucky last time when slow away and the winner got a flyer out the stalls!!

  8. Profile photo of gengar
    gengar 11 months ago

    2:10 Alder Mairi 9/2 NAP
    12:40 Fortinbrass 2/1 NB
    1:10 Honeymoon Cocktail 2/1 NNB
    2:00 Alpha Des Obeaux 2/1 added for yankee

    1:35 Light Well 9/1 golden egg.

    banker double:
    1:20 Bitofapuzzle 4/9
    3.45 Tell Us More 1/2

  9. Profile photo of rale
    rale 11 months ago

    I suppose Fujin has to be Nap. Guys at certain blog, that we cannot mention, have very good run recently and they are both on this one.

  10. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 11 months ago

    Rale never follow sam turner he gives the odd good tip but not to profit also on gg great in sprints also 2 to 4pts are bets NH read what has to be said and use your judgement all other flat bets need a decision on price to risk. GL

    • Profile photo of rale
      rale 11 months ago

      I don’t follow them blindly, but of two I prefer Track Bias Diary. Normaly, win or lose they give a good reasoning to their pick.

  11. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 11 months ago

    Honeymoon Cocktail (NB)
    Watching this horse run, I can’t see why he wouldn’t handle the fibresand, but there is always a doubt till a horse actually runs on it.
    It’s not just because its deeper, its also because no other all-weather track has a kick back like Southwell, alot of horses don’t like it.
    This horse came over from France to join David Pipe and he was actually decent in France but has taken time to get going for the Pipe yard,

    I have said alot that there is always reasons for a horse getting beat, we just have to look for those reasons.
    Honeymoon Cocktail when looking at previous runs before he won last time, loomed a horse that needed stepped up in distance, last time out he was found a good race, he won very easy without the jockey having to ask any questions, he beat Shirataki by 3 lengths but was also giving that horse 19lb
    That form was given a massive boost on Wednesday when I thought Shirataki was the days unluckiest loser, Lulu Stanford was on Shirataki and all the way down the straight she struggled to find the gaps,
    Shirataki crossed the line in seventh beaten one & half lengths but he was still on the bridle

    Honeymoon Cocktail has only been raised 1lb for that last win and is clearly the horse to beat if handling the surface

    • Profile photo of elvis parsley
      elvis parsley 11 months ago

      I agree, shirataki would have won with a decent jockey on.
      Harley and lulu in my black book last 2 days

      • Profile photo of Johnb
        Johnb 11 months ago

        I wouldn’t blame Lulu too much because the gaps just didn’t appear, it was just one of those races, she might have gone up the inside before the home turn but then you are in the worst possible position right on the rail, so I think Lulu just had to sit and wait and hope

  12. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 11 months ago

    Gaelic Silver (NAP)
    It has always been said that claiming races are the easiest to make money on, some say back the top weight & some say back the horses carrying 9-4 or more as these horses win about 25% of the races.
    It does actually take a bit more research than that,
    Claiming races work on the basis that the handicapper works out the weight every horse carries by their handicap mark, but then its up to the connections who can reduce the weight they have been allocated, it does however cost them for every 1lb they take off,
    That money comes off the claiming price that the winner has.
    I believe strongly that Gaelic Silver is being lined up to win on Thursday while not reducing his clai price, he has a very good 7lb claimer on in Paddy Bradley but Gaelic Silver is also a far better class of horse than anything else here, without having to concede the weight he should be

  13. Profile photo of ray_ez
    ray_ez 11 months ago

    This studying lark takes ages. Got an ew double. Come on here and there it is. The 1 effin:10. Anyway cautious as usual
    1:10 S Kingscomb 10/1
    1:35 W Benbecula 12/1
    EW Double and Ew singles

    Also going to be on
    4:05 S burning blaze @ 10/3 NAP

    Good luck all.

  14. Profile photo of ray_ez
    ray_ez 11 months ago

    They’re off and running. 
    12:50 L air horse one 15/8

  15. Profile photo of davyb
    davyb 11 months ago

    still believing 1.55 lud
    ballinvarrig 2.10 win
    ware fare 6.10 ch
    saved my bacon 7.10 ch

  16. Profile photo of linfieldaces
    linfieldaces 11 months ago

    3.40 Ludlow

    Single

    jaunty Inflight 2/1 Nap

    Bet365

    Took it

    • Profile photo of elvis parsley
      elvis parsley 11 months ago

      Ludlow is off, just rang course.
      Jumped off my train at Shrewsbury and now heading for southwell for my live racing fix.
      Chow!!

  17. Profile photo of singhsimma
    singhsimma 11 months ago

    Morning all,

    Going for my USA bet again today at Southwell, each way patent and a small treble.

    1:10 Southwell – Kingscombe
    1:45 Southwell – Granita
    2:55 Southwell – Kung Hei Fat Choy

    • Profile photo of craig2t
      craig2t 11 months ago

      25/1 second. Great ew pick. Would have been a nice forcast with ew thief Vernon.

  18. Profile photo of jimron12
    jimron12 11 months ago

    Decent day yesterday could not get on at all and a footy bet!

    Have a Yankee for today some been mentioned already

    Gaelic silver 5.40 jb
    Present man 1.35
    Fuijin 12.40 alanm
    Burning blaze 4.05

  19. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 11 months ago

    I mentioned the other day about the two greatest myths of Southwell

    Myth one – backing Mick Appleby horses blind does not return long term profit and hasn’t for the last 4 years, bookies have got wise to the fact that he trains his horses at Southwell and the odds for his horses are too short now

    Myth two -backing all USA bred horses does not return a long term profit, extra work has to be done to separate the better ones

    Fasliyev (USA) is by far the best Sire based on roi (return on investment)
    Antonius Pius (USA) is the worst based on roi

    There are other American sires that are either near the top or bottom of the lists but the main ones to follow would be FASLIYEV, SPEIGHTSTOWN & STATUE OF LIBERTY

  20. Profile photo of ew thief
    ew thief 11 months ago

    Morning all well done alanm rookie & anyone av missed yesterday
    VIRNON 1.10S
    GOLDEN CHIEFTAIN 2.45W
    MONSIEUR JIMMY 2.55S
    ELUSIVITY 4.05S
    Can’t pick me nose at the minute so gl all

  21. Profile photo of linfieldaces
    linfieldaces 11 months ago

    Just awake to find Ludlow off not happy fancied jaunty Inflight quite abit. elvis parsley bit of an inconvenience for you I’m sure. You must love your horses👍

    Chelmsford 6.40

    Summer Music NAP 7/2

    Bet365

    Also taken a dbl this morning with stevieg’s Alpha Des Obreaux and alanm’s Fujin look like two good picks.

  22. Profile photo of linfieldaces
    linfieldaces 11 months ago

    My mistake 4/1 Nap price.

  23. Profile photo of luke a
    luke a 11 months ago

    Johnb, is there any chance you could start posting your tennis tips on this page please? I’ve missed a couple in the “other sports” section, and no doubt others have missed some/all too. I’m sure a few in here would appreciate them, especially given the form you are in with them. I took your latest nap with your 2 horses in a trixie last night. First 1 up, hopefully horses to follow suit.
    I’m not asking for there to be discussions about tennis on the racing thread, just for the tennis tips to be added here that’s all. Can save the discussions for the other thread.
    no bother if not, just thought I’d ask if question.
    good luck all today

  24. Profile photo of chilleden
    chilleden 11 months ago

    I am loving the short lists John – giving us some more to think about.

  25. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 11 months ago

    Tagg´s Island 125/1 well worth a quid in a 3 horse race this weather 12.50 Gowan pk

  26. Profile photo of wmgy
    wmgy 11 months ago

    2.10 Wincanton
    Ballinvarrig 8/1

    After many deliberations:
    3.10 Gowran
    Vics Canvas 20/1 ew

    Good luck all.

  27. Profile photo of linfieldaces
    linfieldaces 11 months ago

    alanm you star first half of the double up onto stevieg’s pick now.Great start great off and running tips mate keep up the good work👍

  28. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 11 months ago

    Nice and easy off and running Nap 2/1 :)

    • Profile photo of linfieldaces
      linfieldaces 11 months ago

      Only got it at 11/8 didn’t get reading the tips until my 4am teabreak in work by that time price had got shorter. More than happy with the price nome the less

  29. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 11 months ago

    oops 15/8

  30. Profile photo of
    11 months ago

    Nice NAP alanm great early price 1 horse book in the end even better when it runs like a 1 horse book practically from leaving the stalls.

  31. Profile photo of chilleden
    chilleden 11 months ago

    Nice pick each way thief.

  32. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 11 months ago

    Cheers guys onwards we go.

  33. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 11 months ago

    ew thief well done your back again :) 10/1

  34. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 11 months ago

    For anyone that didnt see my golf tips on sports thread

    Golf

    CareerBuilder Challenge

    Scott Stallings 200/1 e/w betvictor boylesports

    Scott Stallings Top 20 finish 13/2 NAP/NB bet365 betfred (double stake)

    This is my strongest NAP for the golf for a long time

  35. Profile photo of ew thief
    ew thief 11 months ago

    Cheers lad’s nice to get the monkey off me back on we go

  36. Profile photo of
    11 months ago

    Afternoon all

    Wincanton

    14.10 WUFF
    14.45 DAWSON CITY
    15.55 JOHN LOUIS

    gl all

  37. Profile photo of alanm
    alanm 11 months ago

    Great call stevieg well done and great price

  38. Profile photo of linfieldaces
    linfieldaces 11 months ago

    stevieg outstanding mate that’s my £20 dbl up

    • Profile photo of alanm
      alanm 11 months ago

      Nice one mate

    • Profile photo of
      11 months ago

      Cheers guys i would say 1st time cheek pieces worked a treat helped it travel like the winner all race it will still be a better horse on better ground.
      At Fishers Cross ran a blinder and a’m sure Mullins will be happy with Briar Hill’s run as well.

      • Profile photo of ew thief
        ew thief 11 months ago

        Well done stevieg top stuff

      • Profile photo of craig2t
        craig2t 11 months ago

        Cheers. First one in. Now alanm and Johnb to go. Brian Cooper sounded quite sweet on his mount in the 3.10 ( around 9/1 ) only negative he had a tough race 25 days ago but loves this ground.

  39. Profile photo of
    11 months ago

    hi everyone

    late today mrs boz thinks i like going shopping

    S 2.55 MOONLIGHT VENTURE 11/2

    S 3.30 LIMERICK LORD 9/4

    S 4.05 BURNING BLAZE 7/2

    good luck everyone

    happy days

  40. Profile photo of jamiea1991
    jamiea1991 11 months ago

    2/2 from you ew thief, well done!

  41. Profile photo of
    11 months ago

    boz great start .. see you in the pub your round after that win

    gl

  42. Profile photo of
    11 months ago

    My Murphy winning the Thyestes has kind off franked the form of Minella Foru which i bet a few weeks ago for the 3rd race on the 1st day of Chelt obviously it could run in other races but its still 14/1 just now but if thats the race JP picks god knows how short it could go at least half that or less would be my guess.

  43. Profile photo of recoba
    recoba 11 months ago

    Old boy and old dear in the pub I watch the racing in most times(juices during the week 😉) just put £7.50 Ew on…
    MY MURPHY 16/1!
    Old boy with a few tears as it was his wife name Nice!

  44. Profile photo of wn
    wn 11 months ago

    What happened to leg lock luke there at the end?

    • Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 11 months ago

      Not seen the race yet

    • Profile photo of
      11 months ago

      It ran pretty free 1st time up traveled keen and blow up on the run in it will obviously come on for this run on that evidence it would have had no chance against Premier Bond Yesterday

  45. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 11 months ago

    Fridays Tips

    Lingfield
    1:25
    Muaither 9/4 NAP/NB skybet (double stake)

    Wolverhampton
    6:45
    Exalted 9/4 bet365

    Double
    Muaither & Exalted 8.75/1 bet365

  46. Profile photo of rale
    rale 11 months ago

    Too wide. Probably cost it a race. Outsider won.

  47. Profile photo of bertie
    bertie 11 months ago

    Lol all weather racing it’s a compleat waste of time 16/1 shot turns over 5/4 fav happens day in day out

  48. Profile photo of bertie
    bertie 11 months ago

    Did not help the jockey took the horse out wide the winner goes up the inside

  49. Profile photo of linfieldaces
    linfieldaces 11 months ago

    Thats the last Nap I follow. Just gave them half my winnings today back to bet364 on Gaelic Silver

  50. Profile photo of bertie
    bertie 11 months ago

    The winner was only 21 I lbs inferior to the fav

  51. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 11 months ago

    I don’t think going that wide was the problem as the horse still had a chance, I think it was more to do with the jockey thinking he was going to get there easy enough, then a few strides from the line you can see him getting more anxious

  52. Profile photo of
    11 months ago

    bertie is was a clamming race all the horses are in those sort of races for a reason more than likely there trainers dont fancy there handicap marks poor horses that dont run to there marks. Also a 5 year old beaten a 10 year old

    • Profile photo of Johnb
      Johnb 11 months ago

      Claiming races are not for poor horses, the majority of horses that run in them the connections don’t want to lose their horse, the two main reasons connections run horses in claimers is for the prize money & they can choose their own weight,
      Some good horses have been claimed from claimers, the best value one has to be the 1997 Champion Hurdle winner Make A Stand who was claimed for £8,000

      • Profile photo of
        11 months ago

        Poor was wrong choice of word by me Johnm i should have said there for horses that are hard to win with i.e age,quirks,poorly handicapped obviously Gaelic Silver has run nowhere near its mark of 85 and at least the winner has a chance of showing some improvement or at least running to its mark with it being a 5 year old.

  53. Profile photo of duncanpoundcake
    duncanpoundcake 11 months ago

    Stanlow 5.10 Wolves 5/1 GL.

  54. Profile photo of ray_ez
    ray_ez 11 months ago

    Bit of a mixed bag today. On to tomorrow. Well done winners. Cheers as usual to Alanm.

  55. Profile photo of Johnb
    Johnb 11 months ago

    Australian Open day five

    Belinda Bencic v Kateryna Bondarenko
    KATERYNA BONDARENKO to win 10/3 bet365 ladbrokes william hill

    Carla Suarez Navarro v Elizaveta Kulichkova
    ELIZAVETA KULICHKOVA to win 5/2 NAP/NB ladbrokes boylesports (double stake)

    Double
    BONDARENKO +4.5 games
    KULICHKOVA +4.5 games
    2.98/1 william hill

    Back to the women’s tournament for two more outsiders

    4 out of 4 NAPS so far (one was a joint NAP/NB)
    7 Tips so far with 5 winners

    All Tips have been on outsiders with no odds on

  56. Profile photo of scattercash
    scattercash 11 months ago

    Two from my tracker have popped up lingfield 12.45 hot stuff 15/8 and 17.45 Wolverhampton step on it 7/4. I’m 1 from 3 since using the tracker so early days. Good luck every one.

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