IT was close but no cigar for Johnb on Wednesday with his Nap finishing second.
His NB didn’t run due to Newbury being abandoned so it was 2pts lost on the day and January is now a 3.42pt deficit.
Johnb’s Thursday Tips
Honeymoon Cocktail 2-1 NB bet365
Gaelic Silver 2-1 NAP bet365
Honeymoon Cocktail & Gaelic Silver 8-1 bet365
Gaelic Silver (NAP)
Johnb says: It has always been said that claiming races are the easiest to make money on, some say back the top weight & some say back the horses carrying 9-4 or more as these horses win about 25% of the races.
It does actually take a bit more research than that. Claiming races work on the basis that the handicapper works out the weight every horse carries by their handicap mark but then it’s up to the connections who can reduce the weight they have been allocated, it does however cost them for every 1lb they take off.
That money comes off the claiming price that the winner has.
I believe strongly that Gaelic Silver is being lined up to win on Thursday while not reducing his claim price, he has a very good 7lb claimer on in Paddy Bradley but Gaelic Silver is also a far better class of horse than anything else here, without having to concede the weight he should be.
Honeymoon Cocktail (NB)
Johnb says: Watching this horse run, I can’t see why he wouldn’t handle the fibresand, but there is always a doubt till a horse actually runs on it.
It’s not just because it’s deeper, it’s also because no other all-weather track has a kick back like Southwell, a lot of horses don’t like it. This horse came over from France to join David Pipe and he was actually decent in France but has taken time to get going for the Pipe yard.
I have said a lot that there is always reasons for a horse getting beat, we just have to look for those reasons.
Honeymoon Cocktail when looking at previous runs before he won last time, looked a horse that needed stepped up in distance. Last time out he was found a good race, he won very easy without the jockey having to ask any questions, he beat Shirataki by 3 lengths but was also giving that horse 19lb.
That form was given a massive boost on Wednesday when I thought Shirataki was the day’s unluckiest loser, Lulu Stanford was on Shirataki and all the way down the straight she struggled to find the gaps.
Shirataki crossed the line in seventh beaten one & half lengths but he was still on the bridle.
Honeymoon Cocktail has only been raised 1lb for that last win and is clearly the horse to beat if handling the surface.